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Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Dec 7, 2016

$142.54

-3.00%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the lululemon athletica inc. Third Quarter 2016 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Tham, Senior Vice President, Finance, for lululemon athletica inc. Please go ahead.

Chris Tham

Analyst

Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to lululemon's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Laurent Potdevin, CEO; and Stuart Haselden, CFO. Lee Holman, EVP Creative Director, will also be available during the Q&A portion of the call. Before we get started, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements reflecting management's current forecasts of certain aspects of the company's future. These statements are based on current information, which we have assessed but which, by its nature, is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt changes. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are set forth in the company's filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q and in today's earnings press release. The press release and accompanying quarterly report on Form 10-Q are available under the Investors section of our website at www.lululemon.com. Today's call is scheduled for 1 hour. [Operator Instructions] And now I would like to turn the call over to Laurent.

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. I am pleased to report another strong quarter with revenues of $544 million and normalized diluted EPS of $0.47, representing earnings growth of 34% versus last year, a substantial inflection point for lululemon. Similarly to last year, as we entered Q4, sales results have been mixed with a more recent strengthening in the China, and Stuart will offer more details later on our outlook. That said, we continue to be on track with our 5-year plan of doubling our revenue and more than doubling our earnings as we continue to execute against our long-term growth strategies, ranging from product innovation, expanding our international footprint, building a $1 billion men's category and connecting our global collective to our digital ecosystem. In the most recent quarter, we saw the top line momentum from the first half of the year continue as we delivered a plus 7% combined comp. A critical component of our success in Q3 was our gross margin performance. The ongoing focus on our supply chain, upgrading our sourcing and our logistic structure drove a 420 basis point gross margin improvement over the past year. This gross margin expansion is a key element in the earnings recovery that we see today and expect going forward. Taking a closer look at our result this quarter. We delivered a mid-single-digit comp in both tops and bottoms within the women's category, with our bra revenue growing more than 20%. Our performance in tops and tanks was perfectly illustrated by the success of layer combination, such as our scoop tank, a lightweight self-lift top, which paired beautifully with our Free To Be Zen and Energy Bras. As you will remember, we completely redesigned our pant wall a year ago. The 11% comp we experienced in this category…

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Thank you, Laurent. I will start by offering some additional color and details on the third quarter results before discussing our current outlook for the fourth quarter and the resulting full year 2016. The third quarter was an important period that marked the achievement of several milestones toward which we have been working for the last couple of years. As Laurent mentioned, the gross margin results in the third quarter exceeded expectations as our supply chain efforts to recover our product margins are now in full swing. This recovery is continuing into Q4 and will extend into 2017 and become our new margin architecture. We also posted a moderating SG&A rate increase as expected, which enabled us to deliver strong flow-through on the continued top line momentum across all channels and regions. The resulting 36% increase in operating profit and nearly 300 basis points of EBIT margin expansion speaks for itself. And we are pleased to see the story continuing into the current quarter on which I'll offer details momentarily. But first, I'd like to review the details of Q3. Total net revenue rose 13.5% to $544.4 million. The increase in revenue was driven by several factors. First, total constant-dollar comparable sales growth of 7% comprised of a bricks-and-mortar comp store sales increase of 4% and an e-commerce comp of 16%. We also increased total square footage by 11% versus last year, driven by the addition of 35 net new company-operated stores since Q3 of 2015: 14 net new stores in the United States, 2 stores in Canada, 4 in Europe, 3 in Asia, 13 ivivva stores and offset with 1 store closure in Australia. We continue to be pleased with the strength of our store portfolio, where we've seen positive comps consistently across all age classes since last year.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Brian Tunick of RBC.

Brian Tunick

Analyst

I guess, first question for Stuart. I think you talked about 300 basis points of gross margin opportunity to recover from the 2014, I think, year-end levels. So just wondering, given what we've seen here, given what you're commenting on from Q4 guidance, any thoughts on a timing perspective of recapturing the 300 basis points or are there other levers to pull? And similarly on the pricing side, I guess, now that you're going to be lapping some of the price increases from Q4 last year, are there any elasticity or category learnings you can share with us on what you're seeing on your increased pricing?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Brian, it's Stuart. So absolutely. On the first question you have there on the gross margin recovery, first, we're really pleased with what we've seen in the quarter. The most recent quarter exceeded our expectations. As we've looked at the original goal that we had, of recovering the 300 basis points of product margin from 2014, and I'll remind you that was excluding the impact of FX, we are in the third quarter now in that range of recovery. And we expect to see that extend certainly into the fourth quarter and into, I would say, the greatest degree of inflection will occur in the second half of this year and into the first half of next year. And I think that's consistent with how we have framed it previously for folks. So we're pleased to be on track for that level of gross margin recovery. We believe that beyond the middle of next year, it becomes a structural element of our business model. We will see more modest improvements from that point forward and it connects to our broader 5-year goal that we'd outlined back in March of achieving a $4 billion business by 2020 with our gross margin starting with a 5 and our EBIT margin starting with a 2. And so I think this is an important milestone for the company and an important step in achieving that level of profitability and affirming very positively the progress against those goals. So and then on to your other question regarding pricing. We have really, over the last, I would say 12 to 18 months, built a new muscle within the company within our merchandising team around pricing. And it started with a very important project that BCG led for us. It actually helped us step from that project…

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

And Brian, I would remind everybody that a lot of our pricing strategy and the transition that we've made are being driven by innovation. So when you look at us launching the Nulu fabric and the alignment last year or the Nulux fabric, I mean, when we deliver innovation to our guests, I mean, we actually -- and where you see the value, we actually see very little resistance. So I mean, those pricing -- the pricing strategy has been driven for the vast majority of the product by innovation.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

So as we think multiyear, what's the best way to break down your mid-single-digit total company same-store sales target? Meaning, what kind of growth are you embedding between tops, bottoms and men's to hit that mid-single-digits on a multiyear going forward?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Matt, it's Stuart. So we certainly feel like that level of comp is sustainable. And that's how we think about our top line picture over the next 5 years. And as we had shared, we see our men's business growing in penetration somewhere in the ballpark of 25% of the total by 2020. That implies a faster growth pace for men's. The double-digit comps that we've seen in men's, we feel like we're just getting started. And we're thrilled with the momentum that we have in men's, but we see a tremendous amount of opportunities in front of us in that business. We've also been really pleased with the momentum that we've seen in women's pants. We had a very successful pant launch, pant wall launch last Q3. I think Laurent mentioned in his prepared remarks, we posted double-digit comp in women's pants in the third quarter of this year. We're seeing really strong momentum in women's pants into Q4, which really speaks to our ability to comp that business and drive innovation into our products consistently. And there's -- and Laurent mentioned some of the new fabrics and new designs that we have in women's pants. Maybe I'll pause there and let -- give the floor to Lee maybe speak a little bit more about some of the innovation in our product strategy that will drive that mid-single-digit comp.

Lee Holman

Analyst

Yes, I think it's just really exciting as you see Q3 come to fruition, there's been a pipeline of fabric innovation that's coming to our guests. I think this is just the start of the journey. You can see that we're bringing it to our women's pants business from 12 months ago with Nulu, then Nulux come in. And you can see that being see scale maximizing 2017. But then as Stuart said, just getting into the men's business, you'll see really leveraging our franchises around ABC, the Metal Vent and also our technical shorts and other innovation as we go through the year. So I'm very excited about the team's work and how we're bringing that together. And I think on the men's line [ph], just recently recruiting Ben Stubbington into the men's Senior Vice President job, just really actually elevates our talent across the leadership in design and merchandising. So really excited about the future and this is just the starting point of our -- how we land innovation to our guests.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. And then just a follow-up, as we move forward, what's the best way to think about square footage growth into next year versus the low double-digit pace this year? And just the profitability of international today and the opportunity as you see it?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

So Matt, on the square footage question, I think what you're seeing in 2016 is the pace of square footage growth we would expect to see going forward over the next few years. The mix of how we will deliver that will evolve, obviously. We're really pleased with the progress in China, in particular. And that will become a growing and more important part of the square footage growth story. Maybe I'll let Laurent speak to the international strategy.

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

I mean, as far as international, I mean, we talked in the remarks about the acceleration in China and the densification in Shanghai and Beijing. So I'm really, really excited about that and really excited about the location that the team has been able to secure. So and I'll see that. I'm flying there tonight. And so we said that by 2017, we'll have about 20 stores both in Europe and in Asia, and we'll be breaking even by the end of 2017. I think that what you're going to -- that statement is totally relevant. You're going to see an acceleration in Asia we've had a lot of momentum and a greater level of profitability. In Europe, we're going to be a little bit more patient, but the overall international picture really remains the same.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Oliver Chen of Cowen & Company.

Oliver Chen

Analyst

We had a question. Your omni-channel experience has really gotten much better and more exciting and more of a lifestyle picture. What do you think about the long-term prospects of how you will strategically utilize the We Made Too Much in terms of just making sure that you stay a brand appropriate as you engage in using that as an efficient way? And Stuart, on the markdowns for Q4, what are we -- what are you incorporating in terms of markdowns versus last year for Q4? It has been a tough industry environment for traffic volatility. So curious about your thoughts there. It sounds like your inventories are really under control. And Laurent, I had a question on tops. We were in the stores today, and we've seen a lot of nice moves towards flowy away from built-in, but built-in also having a strong offering. Just is that a permanent shift that you're seeing? Or is it kind of seasonal or cyclical? Would love your thoughts.

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

So thanks, Oliver. I mean, I'd love to answer the question on tops. But I think Lee is going to do that much better than I will, so I'll let him speak to that. But quickly on your question on the We Made Too Much. I mean, our strategy is really clear. I mean, we're not making product for that section. We're not planning with that section in mind. And I think actually what we've seen recently, with being able to leverage the store -- the ship-from-store is actually allowing us to use that section to really clean up our inventory at a higher margin so I'm really, really pleased with that. So it's a matter of being really agile and using it as a really efficient tool and certainly, not building that as a category that -- or as section that we rely on. So that's on the why We Made Too Much. I mean, maybe Stuart can chime in on -- yes, second part of your question and then Lee can talk about tops.

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Sure. Yes, and on the -- and Oliver, on the We Made Too Much, so we're going to continue to leverage the various levers that we have to clear inventory that you're aware of. And we're just -- we're really pleased to have this new capability with ship from store that enables us to move this inventory, these slower-moving styles just more efficiently at a higher margin with a great guest experience. So this is -- I think in the quarter and what's been written, I think this is one of the most misunderstood parts of our business model right now. And so you simply -- you can't simply look at the style count on the clearance page on the website. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison to last year or even last week. As we are continuing to add new stores into the program, we're up to over 80 stores that participate in that today. And we'll obviously continue to evaluate what the most effective presentation of that page is and balance that with the overall experience for the guest on the website. But again, really, really pleased with the results. And I think it is reflected in the margin results and certainly the markdown results that we just reported.

Lee Holman

Analyst

Yes, and Oliver, on the tops, thank you for recognizing the shift that we've made. It's really had a focused team cross functionally to work on our tops business. And it really came down to leading with sweat with innovation and having a balanced assortment from shelf to shelfless tanks. We're leading with, obviously, our sculpt tank. But as you can see in the comps in our bras, really going back to some of our key franchises, from Free To Be -- the Free To Be Zen that we introduced and then Tranquil. And then how then are our guests wearing our tops together. So having really a diverse portfolio of fabrics from Pima cottons some of our silver innovation platforms. But really getting to -- close to our guests, understanding how people are sweating and transition through their day, as people are leaving more from a -- kind of a moving more in their lifestyle. So really tapping into that, but really around a balanced assortment. So I'm really happy about where we are and also the future opportunity around tops.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Paul Lejuez of Citi.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

As of last quarter -- I think as of last quarter, you had a few regions in Canada that were underperforming. I'm curious if you've seen any improvement in those regions. Maybe also just more broadly, can you talk about U.S. versus Canada performance and particularly on the traffic side?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Paul, it's Stuart. So yes, I think we had mentioned the underperformance in certain parts of Canada that the oil-producing regions have been challenged just from a broad macro economy standpoint. That generally continues to be the case. Canada, overall, in the third quarter performed well even with the soft trend in Alberta, in particular. And so as a result, there wasn't really a headline to call out in terms of Canada outperforming or underperforming the U.S. in the third quarter. And so the -- as we look forward to the fourth quarter, you've seen the choppy trends that we had described in the prepared remarks and we're looking to lean in and drive the business, where we see opportunities geographically. And we've seen some important store optimizations in Canada. I think we had 3 in the third quarter, 2 in the U.S., the Toronto optimization, in particular, was a very successful one. So we're pleased with how we're being able to find opportunities to evolve the square footage strategy in Canada, where we probably didn't see as much opportunity previously. And there's obviously more opportunity yet remaining in the U.S. from a square footage standpoint. So I think those are the headlines I'd call out. Laurent, I don't know if there's anything else you'd add?

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

Well, the only thing that I would say from a Q4 standpoint in Canada is that I just recently visited a number of stores, and I think we've done – first of all, our people are incredibly energized. I mean, the store looked great and we've had a real focus on continuing to really engage with the communities and a real focus on digital merchandising and some of the windows. So I think that, as I said earlier, I mean, like the holiday season is what we gear up and the energy that I've seen in the stores and how good the stores look really give me a lot of confidence in our people's ability to really maximize the season that we love the most.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

And any color on the traffic trends, Stuart?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Yes. On traffic, first, as we've said, we've been pleased with our comps and how we drove them over the course of the full year, not just Q3. And this has really also supported our margin outcome. And our focus with regard to traffic is in driving quality traffic to support a premium full price business. We're not simply going after every last bit of traffic possible. We're driving comps with higher AURs in a very healthy way for our brand. That said, while our store traffic is slightly negative, it is consistent with the trends that we've seen throughout the year and is substantially better than most of what we see reported in the industry broadly. And this -- the traffic that is out there today tends to be more serious about making purchases and not just window shopping. So we are still seeing healthy traffic from these guests. And as we look into Q4, there's really no reason that the Q4 traffic or the composition of our comps should be -- should really be that much different than it has been all year. So I think that's -- those are the headlines on traffic and why we remain confident in our comp trends.

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

And when you think about traffic, I mean, obviously, I mean, the macro environment is what it is and we think it will stabilize. It's interesting to see the balance of online and brick-and-mortar and how it's happening. When you think about Amazon Go just launching their third grocery store, right? So I mean, we think it will stabilize and we're not waiting for it to stabilize. I think that's why we are really thrilled to continue to really push the colocated expanded format basically as we grow the men's business and we see the acceleration and as we grow the assortment. So those colocated stores, I mean, we know we've got highly qualified traffic, they are very vibrant communities. So that's really, really powerful. And then on the flip side, the locals, where we can be very nimble and very agile in entering some communities and leveraging our digital ecosystem to continue to drive traffic. So I think we've got -- we're not waiting for the macro environment to change. We think it will stabilize and we're taking steps. And then I would add that on game day and during the holiday season, I mean, we know how to drive traffic and our people are the best. On Black Friday, we had a plus 16% comp in the U.S. and on Cyber Monday, a plus 29% comp. And I think what's more exciting in those comps is that the full price comps were very similar to the overall comps. So that really speaks to not only our ability to drive traffic, but also our ability to continue to be the leading brand that sells merchandise at full price.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Betty Chen of Mizuho Securities

Betty Chen

Analyst

I was wondering if we can talk a little bit about ivivva. The stores that we've seen, they look terrific. Seems like there's growing brand awareness. Certainly, that seems to be another big opportunity for the company as a whole. Can you talk about what you're seeing there? Any comp trends and any sort of latest thoughts around productivity and openings?

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

Yes, you know what, I mean, we're actually really excited about ivivva. Actually, one thing that I did not mention on the call is Kristy Maynes, who was running Europe and who has been with us for quite a few years and is a very strong operator who was running Europe, recently relocated back in Vancouver and is leading the charge at ivivva. So for the first time, ivivva is actually looked as a standalone brand with a General Manager. And I'm thrilled to have her run this brand reporting into Celeste, and that's why we have Gareth coming in Europe. And so I think that the goal in 2017 is really to accelerate both the growth and also the profitability of ivivva by being a separate brand and being a guest that we've got between the ages of 8 and 12, is do we maximize the 4 years that we've got with these young guests and really looking at disrupting the model a little bit. So continuing to have those amazing experience, but how do we do that differently and more profitably? So really continuing to push what we do best with ivivva, which is engaging with that demographic, but really also having permission to disrupt the model and potentially look at the different distributions in different categories. So you'll see accelerated profitability in '17 and probably some evolution of the business model.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo.

Irwin Boruchow

Analyst

Stuart, I guess you talked about being able to leverage the clearance section on the website, move slower-selling styles in 80 of the stores. I'm just kind of curious, is there a plan to kind of move that technology into the remaining 300 stores? And then if so, is there timing behind that? And then just a quick follow-up. You talked about brand marketing as a driver of the higher SG&A in Q4. Just curious more color on that. Is that overseas marketing? Is that domestic? And then kind of how you think about your marketing spend as we go into '17?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Yes, Ike, so on the -- your first question. The number of stores that will participate in the ship-from-store is still a moving target. I would not necessarily expect that every store would necessarily participate in it. As we look at the size of the stores, the density of inventory and we set the parameters for what makes sense in terms of how we will be able to tap that inventory reliably to support web sales, we're still landing the exact algorithm for which stores are going to be good candidates to participate. So certainly, suffice it to say, we like it to be as many as possible. There's not a set timing other than I would expect it'll likely unfold probably over the next 18 months will land what the full penetration of store participation could look like, but that's something we can certainly continue to keep you abreast of. The -- on your second question with regard to brand marketing. It's -- we have a, as Laurent mentioned, we have a powerful and disruptive community marketing model. And that's something we're continuing to invest in aggressively. And so it's the elements of the model that you're familiar with in terms of how we get our educators into our communities to make those connections with our guests and our ambassadors, just continuing to evolve that model. And but then there's also investments that we're making from a brand standpoint to continue to explore are there new ways that we can maybe be louder in how we communicate the brand outside of the stand as well time-tested community model strategies. Are there other ways we can leverage a brand marketing voice. So that's -- we've invested into that into the second half of the year with the team here, led by Duke Stump. And so that's something that we'll be looking to expand and test in different ways into next year. So more to follow on that likely on the Q4 call, but that's something that's really coming together as we speak.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jessica Schmidt of KeyBanc.

Jessica Schmidt

Analyst

Can you talk about the competitive environment and sort of the higher-end yoga athletic category? And with some of the new product you launched, with the new fashion and technical components, I guess, do you think that these innovations are helping you maybe regain share?

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

So Jessica, yes, the competitive environment is -- it's crowded. It's a crowded space. And certainly, on one hand, we believe that it's growing the overall size of the pie, if you will. And I think, as Laurent had mentioned on previous calls, we view athleisure as a trend. And like all trends, it will come to an end, at some point. And those competitors who are not in the business in a high-quality manner are going to -- they're going to go away. So we view ourselves as, in many ways, a technology company that is investing in innovation to drive our business. And the pant wall launch last year and the continued investments in innovation that we have this year to continue to drive the business in that regard exemplifies when we invest in innovation, we win.

Laurent Potdevin

Analyst

Yes, I think it's really important to sort of differentiate from the athleisure trend and from how people want to live their lives. And I think that lululemon is the only brand out there that is truly a metaphor for how people want to live their lives and how they want to move. And that's true across gender, that's true globally. And we really actually don't see that lifestyle changing anytime soon. So I mean, you could argue that either the space is really crowded and we have a lot of competitors, or we have very few. And as long as we focus on function and innovation, and delivering value to our guests, I mean, we really don't see any risk to the market that we've created and the market that we continue to lead. So I'm really excited when I look at the runway of innovation, the categories that we can get into and the global sort of footprint that we're building.

Lee Holman

Analyst

Yes, and also, Jessica, I think just at the moment, I mean, you'll see actually as you go through the upcoming season just really heightened focus on building a pipeline in innovation. And I believe lululemon is very unique in a sense of our innovation team from the Whitespace but also Advanced Concept, and also we have different avenues of how we're building innovation from our lab strategy, also how we're gathering information from our ambassadors constantly and just really building out our pipeline. And I think you're going to see it come to fruition and really [indiscernible] scale and maximize. And I think the Nulu fabric is a good example of that being 12 months ago being launched and now being our #1 pant product, and I see that from Nulux as well, really building around at that sensation of naked and how you can build out in different areas of our business going forward. So I'm really excited about leading with innovation that really separates ourselves from the market.

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Lee Holman

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes time allocated for questions on today's call. I'll now turn the conference back over to the presenters for any closing remarks.

Chris Tham

Analyst

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us today. Have a wonderful holiday, and we look forward to speaking again next quarter. Thank you.

Stuart Haselden

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.