Stuart Udell
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us on the call today. Today I want to provide you with our guidance for fiscal 2018, as well as an update of our date enrollments and other developments in our business. As noted on previous calls, we continue to see demand across the nation for online and blended learning option. As of the October 4, count date total enrollment in K12 managed public schools rose 2.4% year-over-year to more than 111,000 students. We saw growth in both our existing and new school. Importantly after three years of decline, this is the second year in a row in which we posted year-over-year gains in managed public school enrollment. I also want to point out that due to our previously described retention issues last year, we ended fiscal '17 with about 97,000 enrollments which was 1000 lower than the prior year. Therefore, our jumping off point for the fiscal 2018 year was actually lower than prior year, yet we still managed to post higher count date enrollments. This represented growth from fiscal year end to count date of about 14% which was a 4% improvement over prior year. Set differently, we grew from about 97,000 enrollment at the end of fiscal '17 to more than 111,000 enrollments by October 4 for a growth of about 14,000 enrollment. This is strong performance and I believe it's not only an indicator of market demand but also out of our potential to grow in future years. Now as I review our performance, I see a number of factors that drove enrollment levels. First, we saw an increase in student reregistration rate. In fact, this is the highest reregistration rate in four years. This year's reregistration effort started earlier and included an enhanced framework designed to provide families the information they needed to make well-informed decisions. The outreach included email campaign, parent information sessions, and personalized follow-up. Second, we saw strong demand from our more recently launch states. As we have detailed previously in states in which a full time online school option has been offered for at least 10 years, market penetration seems to flatten at around 2% to 3% of the eligible student population. In lower penetration states such as Florida, North Carolina, Alabama and Virginia we saw strong enrollment growth in the current year and judging from our experience in a more mature market, we believe this demand should continue for a number of years to come. Third, our diversification efforts within our managed program are also paying early dividend. Specifically, we saw over 70% growth in enrollment for our Career Technical Education or CTE program. As part of our most recent expansion plans, one of our largest partners Ohio Virtual Academy opened a new CTE program this back-to-school season. Now obviously we're still in the early stages of these programs, however we believe CTE offers a significant market expansion opportunity for K12. Not only does it allow us to expand with a new offering, early indications are that students enrolled in our CTE programs and courses tend to stay enrolled longer. Most importantly, more students come out apparent for an employment, and ready to fill much-needed entry-level employment opening, or better prepared proposed secondary education. We will continue to grow the number and size of these programs during the current fiscal year. We're also encouraged by our operational performance during the recent back-to-school season and what that portends for student retention through fiscal '18. We resolved the problems we experienced last year well before the '17 '18 back-to-school season with even way. Also we further refined our students first program with particular focus on the student onboarding process ensuring family for the support they needed to get off to a strong start at the beginning of the school year. The results of our efforts had an immediate impact with fewer customer care calls and a 7% improvement in overall satisfaction rates from the families we serve. The improved family and student launch experience is critical to helping drive improve retention and enrollment levels throughout the year which also should positively influence both student academic outcomes, and our financial results. Keep in mind that about two-thirds of our partner schools are funded by mechanisms other than a single fall semester count day, instead taking into account enrollment and/or attendance level throughout the school year. In year student retention is impactful to not only our current year financial but could also result in higher ending enrollment level then in-turn could drive stronger revenue growth for fiscal '19 and beyond. Going forward, we believe that enrollment in managed public school programs should increase. While in any given year we will face a headwind, we believe that there is increasing demand to support growth over the long-term. To that end, we are working closely with potential partners in states like Missouri, New York and West Virginia to help bring entirely new offerings to students. While these efforts may take some time to develop and ramp, we believe the demand for additional educational choice by students and families will increase over the long-term. Turning to our institutional business Fuel Ed. We are disappointed that this business is going to materially decline this year. This does not change our longer-term view and prospects for this business as we see digital education solutions gaining steam and transforming the classroom and increasingly teachers, parents and students are embracing this evolution with enthusiasm. School districts are increasing their spend on educational hardware, software and online learning solutions and are ramping up the use of these digital tools for new instructional approaches and to provide a more personalized and mobile learning experience. However, while we believe in the long-term revenue potential for this business, as we've said previously we need to reset our strategy approach and execution. We are unfortunately expecting revenues to decline about 15% this fiscal year due to several factors. First and foremost, as we discussed in previous quarters our sales execution is not been as effective as it needs to be and as a result new sales especially during the recent summer selling season have slowed. While we have changed leadership and honed our go-to-market strategy, the new team was not in place in time to impact this year's selling season causing us to fall short of our expectations for fiscal '18. That said, the team is ramping up and we will look to improve results in fiscal '19. Second, non-managed enrollments came in nearly 14% lower year-over-year giving back to gains we made in fiscal '17. This resulted from the loss of one significant partner program along with an enrollment shortfall from another large program. It's worth noting though that K12 does not provide marketing enrollment services for many of our non-managed schools. Again over the long-term, we expect Fuel Ed to be well positioned to grow again as the nation's school shift to digital learning option. We will continue investing this business going forward. In private pay, we also continue to see the long-term potential for this business. We are actively working on international partners shift in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America region where we also leverage our core curriculum and capabilities to deliver unique in country education solution. Domestically, we're looking to expand our private pay options for adult learners, as well as expanding our private pay CTE offering to the marketplace. However, much of this activity is in the early stages and will not have a material effect on current year result. As such, we expect current fiscal year private pay revenue to be relatively flat. Taking in total for fiscal 2018, we expect total revenues of the range of $890 million $910 million which is a modest increase over fiscal '17. I am most pleased by the fact that the core business of managed public school which makes up the vast majority of our revenue is healthy and growing. Now turning to our overall company profitability, we continue to focus on driving greater efficiencies across the business. This includes streamlining and automating processes, enhancing backend systems, and reducing our cost structure while continuing to invest in student academic program, training and support initiatives for our teachers and school leaders, and growth opportunities like CTE. A perfect example of our continuing investment in teachers and academic outcomes is this week's announcement of our landmark partnership with Southern New Hampshire University, a highly innovative leader in online higher education. This partnership will include the development of our customized competency-based Masters in Education Degree with the unique focus on K12's virtual instruction. This Masters program will be offered in either a free or highly subsidized fashion to affiliated K12 educators. The SNHU partnership will also create foundational professional development program for our own K12 and partner school boards teaching staff including a series of stackable training modules and micro-credential to update and strengthen teachers' skill. We are very excited about this program and what it will mean to teachers and students in the years to come. Taken in total for fiscal 2018 we expect adjusted operating income in the range of $46 million to $50 million. Regarding capital expenditures, we will complement our activities across the organization by focusing our investments in areas that help drive stronger student outcomes. This will include leveraging the wealth of assets at K12's disposal and continuing a multiyear program to refresh our catalog to make it even more compelling adaptive and engaging. As part of this effort, we are integrating the stride practice and test readiness platform which we acquired last year into our core online learning platform. Similarly, we are pleased to announce the recent acquisition of Big Universe, a state-of-the-art SaaS based K12 digital literacy platform. Big Universe offers a rich engaging reading experience with over 11,000 e-books titles including Spanish bilingual books for more than 40 publishers. The product includes embedded assessments of student recommendation engine, analytics to demonstrate reading growth, and engaging reading practice opportunity. While the revenue from this acquisition is modest, we are very bullish about both the opportunity to leverage this asset to improve our core managed public school student experience, and to improve the Fuel Ed product offering for school districts. We will look to integrate the Big Universe platform and to manage public schools elementary core curriculum with the objective of improving learning outcomes by making highly engaging reading practice an essential part of K12's core learning model. Big Universe has found that students who read high-interest literature at appropriate readability levels are more motivated and engaged ultimately living to a love of reading, learning and improved educational outcomes. Also going forward Fuel Ed will be the exclusive distributor for Big Universe in the public and practical markets. Across Big Universe, Stride, LearnBop and all of the products used in both managed programs and Fuel Ed offerings, we are creating a unified user experience that directly supports student outcomes and retention. As we did last year, we will continue to focus on greater efficiency in how we create these products which allows to hold down total capital outlay. This translates into guidance on capital expenditures of $43 million to $47 million for fiscal '18. Now, one last but very important announcement. I'm very pleased to share that Kevin Chavous will be joining K12 on November 8 as President of our academic policy in school's group. This brings into one group the team that drives the development of new school, establishes and monitor school academic policy and performance, and day-to-day operations of all managed school. Kevin is a noted education reform leader with a well chronicle track record of driving change an opportunity for all children of all backgrounds and circumstances. Kevin has worked to advance parent choice programs around the nation, most notably the education committee chair of the Council of the District of Columbia, in which he help shape innovative new educational models in the nation's capital. Kevin has always placed children at the center working across the aisle as both the founder of Democrats for Education Reform and is a Founding Board member of the American Federation for Children. Not only has Kevin been a member of the K12 Board of Directors but also the first chairperson of the K12 founded and supported foundation for blended and online learning, which awards scholarships to student's small blended and online schools across the nation and encourages the development of teacher training in blended school. Additionally Kevin is an accomplished author, having published serving our Children Charter Schools and the Reform of American Public Education, Voices of Determination; Children that Defy the Odds and Building a Learning Culture in America. Importantly, Kevin has worked to advance charter school and parental choice program and a host of jurisdictions around the country and is a leading national advocate for educational and parent choice. We are quite fortunate to have the opportunity to add Kevin to an already strong and tenure team. His depth of experience and tension for innovation and education paired with an already strong K12 team should speed innovation and change across the organization especially in our support of student academic outcomes. In this new capacity, Kevin will be exiting the K12 Board of Directors. In closing, we were encouraged by the continued growth in our core managed public school business. We believe that the demand for digital educational solution will continue to increase over time which will translate into growth for all of our business segments. We're focused on working closely with teachers, school board partners in district to support improved academic outcomes for all the students we serve. We believe this focus will deliver consistent revenue and earnings growth, as well as increased shareholder value over the long-term. Thanks very much. And I will now hand the call over to James to review first quarter results in more detail, as well as our second quarter guidance. James?