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Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 23, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research's March Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Tina Correia, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Tina Correia

Management

Thank you, and good afternoon everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment and review our financial results for the March 2020 quarter and our outlook for the June 2020 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 o'clock PM Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website. along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call. Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release. This call is scheduled to last until 3 o'clock PM Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be made available later this afternoon on our website. With that, I will hand the call over to Tim.

Tim Archer

Management

Great. Thank you, Tina, and welcome everyone. I hope you and your families are doing well in these very challenging times. Against the evolving backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, Lam delivered solid financial results in the March quarter. I want to start by discussing how we are managing through the current environment. The impact from the globally-spreading virus began to materialize in our manufacturing and supply chain operations in the latter part of the March quarter as shelter-in-place orders went into effect across many regions. We've responded effectively to these disruptions and while near-term predictability remains more difficult than usual, I am pleased to say that our essential manufacturing facilities and labs are operating, allowing us to focus on critical customer deliverables. I'm very grateful to our Lam employees and partners around the world, who with tremendous commitment and dedication, have risen to meet extraordinary challenges. Our focus at this time is concentrated in three key areas. First, our top priority remains the health and safety of our employees, our partners and their families. From the start, we have actively sought the best available guidance to formulate our response plans and we are complying with all public health directives in the locations in which we operate. All employees that can execute their roles remotely are doing so. And through our expansion of our IT infrastructure capabilities, we have maintained a productive remote work cadence. To protect our employees that are working on-site at Lam locations, we have implemented rigorous safety practices, including on-site temperature monitoring, mandatory use of personal protective equipment and strict social distancing protocols. Second, we are executing our business continuity plans throughout our manufacturing and supply chain network. Our capabilities are still limited compared to normal operation, but as the pandemic has impacted different parts of the…

Doug Bettinger

Management

Great. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining us today in what I know is a challenging time for all of us. I hope all of you and your families are safe and healthy. As you're aware, given the uncertainties with business disruptions around the world related to COVID-19, we withdrew our March guidance on March 17. Despite the operational challenges, we delivered solid results in the March quarter. Our revenues for the quarter came in at $2.5 billion, down $80 million from the December quarter. The decrease was entirely due to production interruptions. Customer demand remained strong through the quarter. I'd point out that we're exiting the March quarter with the strong level of deferred revenue at $726 million. This was partly due to shipments that occurred at the end of the quarter that had backordered materials. From an earnings per share perspective, the March quarter came in at $3.98, which was driven by strong gross margin performance, focused expense management as well as a favorable tax rate. From a system segment perspective, as expected, memory investments increased in the March quarter. The combined memory segment increased to 56% of system revenues, rising from the December quarter at 52%. We saw increases in NAND spending with investments focused on 64, 96 and initial 128-layer devices. DRAM spending continues to be focused on node transitions primarily on conversions to 1y and 1z. NAND was the majority of memory investments at 40% of systems revenue, with DRAM coming in at 16%. Foundry revenue strength continued with customer investments there focused on 7 and 5-nanometer. As a percent of system revenue, foundry represented 31% of systems revenue as compared to 36% in the December quarter. December quarter was the all-time high systems revenue level for our foundry business.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore. Please go ahead.

C.J. Muse

Analyst

Yes, good afternoon and thank you for taking the question and glad to hear you're all healthy. First question, I guess, revolves around demand side, obviously, you talked about supply constraints. How are you, I guess, prioritizing customer demand and have you seen any demand disruption given the uncertainty to COVID? Or just too early just to see anything works out on that front?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. I guess we, C.J., we are working very, very closely with all of our customers to help prioritize shipments in the order of greatest need for the customer. So you can imagine critical R&D programs, where there's a technology conversion, it requires a one of a kind tool, specific capacity bottlenecks that are critical to their factory output or delivery to specific customers of theirs. And so one of the great things about Lam having built very strong customer relationships over all these years is that we really partnered with them to understand their priorities. And we do have fair flexibility within our own operations to prioritize certain tools ahead of others for a specific customer. And so I'd say through very, very close coordination with the customers who are trying to meet their needs. It's - I guess, I would say, maybe the simple answer is, we've seen no demand disruption, no change in demand. One could say maybe that's - it's too early to see that. But we really haven't sensed in any conversation with the customers today a change in demand. So our focus is really on how to get the tools to them that they need.

C.J. Muse

Analyst

Very helpful. As my follow-up, I guess, on the supply - supply chain side, is that more upstream in your ability to produce the tools, get parts, perhaps issues in Malaysia? Or is it more logistics of getting the tools actually to customers? And then I guess as part of that, Doug, if you could help at all, how do we think about the implications to gross margins as you obviously bring on more resources to satisfy customers' demand in this crazy world?

Doug Bettinger

Management

I'll take the first part of that. It - I'd say some of the supply challenges, they're kind of across the board, but clearly, I think most people are quite aware of the control orders that are in place in Malaysia, which is - tends to be for many equipment companies, a large subsystem supplier. Lam, we've - one of our strengths, both operationally and financially, has been a supply chain operation that allows us to do what we call merging transit. And so therefore, some of the subsystems never actually come to Lam facilities. They arrive directly at customer sites. If those don't arrive obviously, the system cannot ship complete. So it's across the board. Materials coming into our facilities, which we feel are operating quite effectively right now, but also coming out of major subsystem suppliers in places, as you noted, places like Malaysia and others. So that's…

Tim Archer

Management

C.J, I mean I'll give you a little flavor of how we're running things in areas that are probably going to be a little bit of a drag on gross margin. And I won't quantify it specifically, but I'll give you some stuff to think about. Basically, what's happening is, given the need to have social distancing, we're needing to space people out further away from one another in the factory environment. And obviously, that means we can generate less output per square meter, per square foot, what have you. So essentially, what we're trying to do C.J., is moving to incremental space where we have it, take some incremental space where we have it and bring incremental people into that other space. Obviously, in an environment like that, you're doing everything you can to take care of the customer and generate revenue for that matter, but you're going to be less efficient in terms of your ability to be super-efficient on the gross margin line. Other things that are going on, as I'm sure you're aware, freight and logistics is more expensive right now. It's up a decent amount in certain areas. So we're having to spend more to get materials coming into the factory as well as giving them to customers. I'm not going to quantify it for you specifically, but the way I would want you to be thinking about it is we've been in the gross margin range over the last five, six, seven years. I think what you're going to see is, we will trend towards the lower end of where you've seen our gross margin over that time frame. I don't think we'll go below the range we've been in, but I think we will be towards the lower end, given the dynamic I described.

C.J. Muse

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you.

Tim Archer

Management

Thanks, C.J.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

John Pitzer

Analyst

Yes, good afternoon guys. Thanks for letting me ask the questions. Appreciate all the color you have given the uncertainty. Doug, I'm just kind of curious, can you quantify what the supply impact was to revenue in the March quarter? And is it going to be larger in the June quarter despite June revenue being up? And do you expect to kind of get most of these behind you by the end of the June quarter, so as you go into the second half of the calendar year, supply is less of an issue?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. John, I'll take you back. Our original guide was $2.8 billion, plus/minus $200 million. And we kind of realized the last couple of weeks of the quarter and our limited ability, we might end up ending below the low end of that range, and we did. So that was the impact. We came into the quarter expecting to be able to deliver $2.8 billion. And I'll remind you that as we began last quarter, we basically said, demand is actually stronger than that, but it was the beginning of things beginning to break out in Wuhan, and we knew there was going to be some supply chain impact. So that's kind of what went on there, John. Now obviously, we're getting much better at operating in this environment. We brought the factory back online. We got people back to work. We're hiring people. We're moving into incremental space. So I think we're going to be able to mitigate it better than when it just kind of fell in our lap. And based on how we believe we're going to be able to operate and get more output and execute our business continuity plans, I think revenue will be higher in June. Demand continues to be much stronger than that. This is a supply situation.

John Pitzer

Analyst

And Doug, by the second half, do you think you will have mitigated all these supply issues or not? Second half of the calendar year?

Doug Bettinger

Management

I hope so. Yes. I mean, we're executing our business continuity plans. It's not going to take us longer than a quarter to get those in place. I hope, and Tim can maybe comment on this as well.

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. No, I think as I commented, we're continuously seeing improvements. Most important thing that we prioritized as well as I believe our supply chain did is, first, to establish a stable source of supply and production capability at a level that clearly is less than 100%. But stability being the key. We have customers, as I mentioned, with critical projects, critical production bottlenecks. And so what we wanted to ensure that we were avoiding beyond, of course, in any way endangering employees or our supply chain partners. But beyond that was endangering somehow taking a step back and moving too fast and then having to come back and not actually build the supply at that stable level. So I think day by day, we're able to inch that stable production level up. And I think as we exit this quarter, we'll be at a higher production output capability for sure. And as Doug said, probably working off this stronger customer demand over the next several months.

Doug Bettinger

Management

And maybe just one other comment as I was thinking while Tim talked, John. Obviously, we have a plan to execute to a number, and we know what that number is. The reason we decided not to formally provide guidance to a number is, we're just concerned things could change. This is a very dynamic and fluid situation. That's really why we decided not to give you a hard number right now.

John Pitzer

Analyst

That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, Tim, you guys did a good job in the March quarter, pulling some levers on OpEx and bringing OpEx down. But clearly, you still have a lot of investments on your plates for future growth. So I'm just kind of curious on how you're going to manage OpEx through this environment? Should we think about it growing in line with revenue? Or are there more levers on SG&A that you can pull, but keep R&D growth continuing? How should we think about that dynamic?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes, well, clearly, we will continue to prioritize R&D. We laid out some pretty aggressive plans, where we see really great opportunities for the Company at our Investor Day related to new system introductions, continued progress. I mentioned a couple of them today, new etch platform, new ALD progress. We will continue to fund those to the fullest that we can. We are seeing, of course, some very nice OpEx offsets. We're not traveling. And so there are elements of the expense lines that are coming down quite dramatically. So we're going to be prudent. We're not going to spend where we don't have to. A lot of discretionary spending around meetings and events and other things that kind of normally take the course of our normal business, those will not be occurring and we'll be reallocating that money to R&D and other things to ensure we come out of this stronger than we went in.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Thanks, John.

John Pitzer

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Timothy Arcuri of UBS. Please go ahead.

Timothy Arcuri

Analyst

Hi, thanks. Doug, I just want to follow-on to that question and see if maybe you could quantify the constraint in June. And obviously, we know what the constraint was in March. But if you could meet all the demand in June, can you give us a sense of maybe where revenue would be? Would it be sort of in excess of $3 billion, maybe $3.1 billion or $3.2 billion [ph]?

Doug Bettinger

Management

Tim, I know you were going to come with a question like that. I'm not going to give you a number, but demand is very strong. And I'll simply remind you, what we originally guided in March was $300 million higher than what we delivered at the end of the quarter. Demand didn't change. And I specifically mentioned the $700 plus million in deferred revenue because that's stuff that shipped, but it was an incomplete system. It wasn't a fully functional system. Obviously, that stuff is going to revenue. So there is decent upside to demand. It's just - we're in a supply situation right now that we're working our way through.

Timothy Arcuri

Analyst

Okay, got it. And then just on the suspension of the repo. The stock is down a little bit based on the balance sheet. I get that maybe the topics of share repo right now is not that great. And maybe that's the answer, but you are typically pretty supportive of the stock, and opportunistic around the stock. So can you maybe comment as to why you could retail now and maybe it is just the opposite, but if you could give us some comments there. Thanks.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Yes Tim, a little bit of is OpEx [ph], a little bit of it's just being prudent, right? I think every CFO in the world today is focused on liquidity and making sure you have the utmost liquidity. And I'm highly confident in the cash generation capability of the Company. But it just felt like the prudent thing to do to just kind of take a pause on the buyback, get focused on conserving cash. Hook our head up to see where end demand ends up. I do think at the end of the day, there will be some demand disruption. We're not seeing anything from customers yet. But when I look at the consumer-facing semiconductor companies, their business is beginning to be impacted. So I just - I want to get a little more time behind us, Tim, and assess what might actually this look like at the end of the day. And just trying to be prudent with the cash right now is all.

Timothy Arcuri

Analyst

Sure. Okay, awesome. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Harlan Sur

Analyst

Good afternoon and great job on the business execution just given the supply chain challenges. You guys characterized the demand environment to your system is remaining [ph] strong. Any way you can somewhat qualitatively or quantitatively describe this demand. You did say that you started this quarter with record backlog. Did you systems bookings actually grow sequentially in the March quarter?

Doug Bettinger

Management

You want to take that, Tim?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. I mean, they did. I mean, it's - our comment about - I mean, I guess the best way to look at it is we gave on our January call, our outlook for the year. Now we're not reiterating the year because we recognize, as Doug just said. There's a fair bit of uncertainty about how things may play out with the macroeconomic environment later. But that outlook for the year that we spoke of and the strong demand at the January call, that's the demand we're talking about being unchanged, which means through this first half of the year, the continued strength in foundry and logic, the strengthening demand in memory because recall memory under-invested, we exited the year really in a situation where we felt very good about the need to add in the demand space and also eventually in the DRAM space. And we haven't seen those plans change and that demand remains kind of at the same level it was in January. And which means that we have a full order book, and we're - really, our challenge is how to get these tools to customers. And I would say 100% of my conversation with customers right now are about how to get the tools they need to them. And I think that will continue for some period of time. And as Doug said, we will reassess after that period to see how demand is being affected.

Doug Bettinger

Management

And just maybe one incremental comment for me, Harlan. I mean, our customers are investing in very long lead time items. I wouldn't have expected anything to change. We're just monitoring and trying to be cautious about, obviously anything that is a consumer-facing business at the end of the day isn't going to be as strong. We haven't seen anything move through from our customers yet, but we're just - we're trying to be aware of what's going on the environment, I think, is how I'm thinking about how Tim is thinking funny [ph].

Harlan Sur

Analyst

Great. Thanks for the insights there. And then on the innovation of design win pipeline, just given the short-term place here in the Bay Area, wondering if this has slowed either internal projects or collaborative engagement with customers at our research facility in Fremont or some of your other labs globally? Or are the labs considered an essential business process under state or federal guidelines and they are being staffed by the Lam team?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes, they are and they are staffed. And as I mentioned in my comments, they're operational. But just as Doug spoke to, Lam is being - our top priority is safety of our employees and others working in our labs. And so we've implemented very strict social distancing protocols, which does limit the overall number of people who can be in the lab at any given time. And so I would say we're not operating the labs clearly at our full capacity for this event. But we are operating. We're able to prioritize critical R&D programs for customers. I did mention in my comments some of these projects, they probably have taken, say, a one-month delay or maybe a two-month delay because of not only the couple of weeks we're shutdown [indiscernible], but then the restart here through the local orders and social distancing. So - but we remain focused on them, and I would say that in the long-term sense of R&D projects and how they play out over time, this is not a - it's not a major disruption to their schedules. Now, your other comment is just on how we're engaged with customers. Clearly, travel is more difficult. But one thing Lam is focused on over the years is building strength in our regions. And so we do have a lot of process engineers and hardware engineers that are deployed out into the region and engaged with customers. And in most cases, our customers have continued to operate in a way that's not dramatically changed from before. And so we're able to engage with them on-site on those critical projects.

Harlan Sur

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Krish Sankar of Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.

Krish Sankar

Analyst

Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the good execution in these tough times. First question for Doug. Doug, China sales were very strong. Is there anything you can segment it between how much of it was memory versus foundry? How much of it is domestic versus multinational? Then I have a follow-up for Tim.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Yes. I'll give you a little color, Krish. Yes, 32% in the China region, a little bit over half of that local Chinese customers. Maybe like 60% might be a reasonable way to think about it local versus the global multinationals. We've got a broad-based set of customers in China, NAND, DRAM, foundry. So it isn't one or the other, Krish. It's broad across all of that spectrum. This is the way you should think about it.

Krish Sankar

Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. And then, Tim, just a big picture question, given that you have been in this industry for a while, and Lam has a broad suite of product. If and when demand slows down, where do you think you'd see [indiscernible] in the productivity products like single-wafer clean, would it be within upgrades of the customer business group. I'm just kind of curious where you think or would it all happen at the same time and it really doesn't matter nitpicking it?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. No, it's a great question. I mean, in fact, I think if we look just to last year as maybe an example, and I'm not saying who knows, I mean, the future could be different than the past. But when we saw things slow down, say, in the memory market, and I talked about the fact that memory spend was down almost 40% last year, we actually see, in those cases, customers turn to how can they get and extract the most out of the installed base they have. So we tend to see things like advanced services and upgrades actually increase during those periods. So that's the strength of our installed base business and why we're so focused on it is because we believe that it is actually one of the areas that can help you weather worse market condition. Obviously, capacity additions would fall away. But again a lot of what we're looking at are technology conversions, ongoing strategic investments from customers, a lot of the investments that we've talked about in China and other places, is very long-term and strategic. And so I don't - I think those would probably be the last places to see R&D, technology, strategic investments, those would be the least affected.

Krish Sankar

Analyst

Thanks, Tim.

Tim Archer

Management

Thank, Krish.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya of Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Vivek Arya

Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. I understand visibility is limited. But when I hear you saying that capacity situation is slowly improving and your customers' CapEx plans are not really changing, I'm curious, what is your best guess on where WFE can land this year? Even qualitative comments would be very useful. Are there certain areas where you think it could be more resilient than others? Just any way to say, directionally where it can be this year would be extremely useful to us?

Doug Bettinger

Management

Yes, Vivek. We were debating how much to say about this. I mean, we came into the year expecting the beginning of memory recovery, continued strength in foundry and logic, all of that is still how I see things, how we see things, I think. But I think it would be remiss to just come in and tell you, it's exactly the same as it was a quarter ago. Something is going to get softer, although we're not seeing it yet, honestly, from what we're hearing from customers. To quantify it, I don't know, kind of hard. We said mid-high-50s, 90 days ago, probably low mid-50s might not be an unreasonable way to think about it right now. I do think we're going to see softness at some point and things that are facing the consumer. I don't know. Tim, anything else you'd…

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. No, I think that's a reasonable way to look at it. The other is, and maybe I thought maybe where you're going with this is, at some point, we must resolve the supply issues, otherwise, they start to affect the actual WFE that can be executed in the year. We can't pile everything up on to customers in the back half of the year as a makeup because that's not possible from our own manufacturing, shipping and also the installation and the customers' digestion of that equipment. So I don't think we're quite at that point yet, but we would be where at some point to a certain, if it couldn't be executed simply because of the supply constraints. But if things continue to progress, and as Doug said, we see the June revenue higher and us working through the backlog that I spoke to, then I don't know that we see huge issues with the constraints on WFE.

Vivek Arya

Analyst

All right. And on the services side, thanks for providing that disclosure, do you think that proportion kind of remains for June and the following quarters, so kind of one-third from the services group? Or is there something about the current macro environment? That impacts that ratio one way or another?

Doug Bettinger

Management

That's a hard one, Vivek. I mean, what I see happening over a multi-year time frame is the equipment stuff has a little bit more volatility to it and sometimes can accelerate in which case - I mean, installed base business is just kind of a slow and steady grower in some ways along with the installed base. So a lot of stability there. I think as total revenues tick up, probably equipment will pick up a little bit more quickly, at least over the next couple of quarters, I hope. And so the percent would go down, but it will ebb and flow. I mean, historically, how I've described it as 25% to 30%. And obviously, if you do the math on what we just saw, it's more than 30%.

Tim Archer

Management

But I think that the reason why we - I mean, obviously, we finally felt it was very important to disclose more details on this business is because the new system shipments and CSBG in any particular quarter are not so directly linked. That's why we like the business so much. And so I would start to recommend people not think about it as the percentage of our business as much as it is a business that we've said we would expect to grow every year. And it has multiple components that give it resiliency from the spares and upgrades and advanced services and Reliant systems. And so, I think in and of itself, maybe it does depend on the growth of the installed base, but that comes a little bit, there's a lagging time indicator there as tools have to ship. They have to go out of warranty, then they start to consume parts and upgrades and such. So I think we're disclosing it, so you can start to think about it as a business that's growing kind of on its own.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Thanks, Vivek.

Vivek Arya

Analyst

Thank you. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Atif Malik of Citi. Please go ahead.

Atif Malik

Analyst

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. First one, have your lead times stretched in the current environment? And if yes, by how much? And as a follow-up, Doug, you talked about $8 billion to $9 billion domestic China spending in January. And given the strength in March, are those expectations looking up for the full year in terms of demand? Thank you.

Doug Bettinger

Management

I'll let Tim take the lead time question, first.

Tim Archer

Management

Yes, I guess - let me take it on. They clearly have stretched. I mean, that's what we're talking about relative to supply challenges and our own challenges. So lead times have stretched out. I don't actually want to quantify it for you on this call, though. I mean it's something - again, it's competitive reasons, but you can imagine, it's - lead times have stretched out, and that's why we're in conversation with the customers about how to get them their high priority tools closer to the original lead times that we would have originally provided.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Yes and Atif, what we've said about local China WFE is that in 2019, it was a little bit above $6 billion or above $6 million, and we expected an incremental $2 million to $3 million. Still kind of how I think about it, obviously. I don't know that a whole lot has changed in that regard.

Atif Malik

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question is from Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Sidney Ho

Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. If you compare to the midpoint of the guidance there, there's a $300 million shortfall. What end market or geography were most impacted? It looks like China still have pretty decent growth, but Taiwan was down quite a bit, which is different than what the big foundry guys over there saying. Any color there would be great. Thanks.

Doug Bettinger

Management

I don't know that there's any unique geographic distribution between what wasn't able to be supplied versus what we did ship. Nothing is in my head, Sidney, to give you an answer that said [indiscernible].

Tim Archer

Management

Yes. I think it's - the way I would think about it and maybe back to even the previous question a little bit is that each of our - we have a lot of different products. And the makeup of the supply chain for those products is not the same. And even the manufacturing facilities for those products are not all the same. And so I would say it was less about any particular customer not receiving a big chunk of tools as much as certain tools the lead time having pushed out a little bit and those tools kind of slipping out of the quarter. So certain tool types were impacted, I would say, more so than us as a result of where their supply chain was heavily concentrated.

Sidney Ho

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. My follow-up is, if your June quarter revenue does come in the way you expect, which you think is higher, I guess they're still two more quarters to go for the year. But what are your thoughts on bit growth for DRAM and NAND and maybe leading edge foundry capacity additions, I guess, based on how you think that the second half of the year is going to be?

Doug Bettinger

Management

Hard to answer, Sidney. I mean, first thing I'd tell you is our view of the long-term good demand really is unchanged. Now having said that, obviously, a lot of bits are consumed in the mobile space, and that's gotten probably softer given the more direct exposure to the consumer. That's offset, though, by what you see going on in the hyperscale space, which is also [indiscernible], right? The work from home, whatnot and the stuff. Tim had in his script about the likely uptick there. Those two are going to offset. I don't know that I'm ready to quantify it for you just because there's so many moving pieces unless Tim wants to quantify?

Tim Archer

Management

No, we debated it, but no. I think the challenges we said, we do recognize there will be areas of strength and weakness. And as Doug has said many times, I think we need to see how, obviously, later in the year, macro is really affecting consumer spending in other segments of the market. We wouldn't sit here today and say that this kind of economic disruption would have no effect. And so just hard to quantify. I think we just have some comfort in knowing that we feel like we came out of - we come into this year and ended this economic disruption without having been a situation of like a lot of spending last year. So if there's one overlining, it's that there was underinvestment last year, so we enter in a pretty good space from that perspective?

Doug Bettinger

Management

Yes. The trajectory of growth was declining as we exited last year, and that continues into the first half of this year and the second half will depend on the investments that occur. So maybe something to think about Sidney.

Sidney Ho

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Joe Quatrochi of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Joe Quatrochi

Analyst

Yes, thanks for taking the question. Going back to your prior WFE growth expectations, could you provide us any color on just how we should think about - what was it baked into that for capacity expansion versus technology transitions?

Tim Archer

Management

Yes, Joe, we didn't - I didn't break it down specifically. What we said was continued strength in foundry and logic. That is what we're seeing. And then some level of a recovery in NAND read that to be - last year in memory, the spending was pretty much all about just node conversions, almost no wafer capacity. And that created a situation where the rate of supply growth continued to decline through the year such that our view was it was below where demand growth was going to be in both NAND and DRAM, right? We had inventory adjusting pricing getting better, all that kind of stuff. I think the real question that's on all of our minds is, okay, what is demand going to do this year. I'm not going to wait into that one quite yet. So that's what we saw. We saw NAND beginning to tick up a little bit, probably adding a few wafers. DRAM, no. DRAM really was a continued trajectory that we saw in '19 through most of '20, maybe a little bit of an uptick. And I think we're just going to wait and see how this plays out to assess what's going to happen there. But that's what we were seeing 90 days ago. That's what we described 90 days ago.

Joe Quatrochi

Analyst

Okay. And then on the strength in China, I mean, it sounds like it could have been even stronger in the March quarter. Is that fair? And then I guess if that's true, do you expect that to grow further in the June quarter, just given that some of that could have slipped into this quarter?

Doug Bettinger

Management

I don't know that it would have grown as a percent, Joe. I mean, the supply issue was across every geography, quite honestly. So if you think in percentage terms, I don't know that would have been all that different. Everything had challenges around supply. And then just to frame what we see going on in local China, again, we expected - not expected. Last year was a little above $6 billion, and we saw an incremental $2 billion to $3 billion in China, and that's still pretty much what we see from local China in terms of WFE - that was a statement of WFE.

Joe Quatrochi

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Operator, we'll do one more question.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Your final question will come from Quinn Bolton of Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

Quinn Bolton

Analyst

Thanks, guys for squeezing my in. First question, just trying to reconcile the lower revenue for you guys out of Taiwan in foundry when TSMC put up a record CapEx number in the March quarter. Is that just sort of a timing when TSMC recognizes CapEx? Or do you have any thoughts on that? And then the second question, the social distancing that you put in place in the manufacturing operations, does that slow your cycle times for an extended period of time and reduce your sort of quarterly revenue capacity? Or do you think the plan that you put in place to try and expand footprints can get your back to where your manufacturing output was, say, before you went into the COVID downturn? Thanks.

Tim Archer

Management

Okay, great. Let me take both of those. The - relative to Taiwan and your questions there, I think there's no story other than just timing. I mean as Doug said, we had systems impacted in that first quarter. So I don't think there's anything there. From the capacity perspective and social distancing, that was part of what Doug was speaking to. Clearly, within our factories, once we've implemented strict social distancing, we can have fewer people in the same area, I mean space. And so to that extent, our cycle time does stretch out. Some tasks take longer than they would have otherwise and so our overall capacity out of an existing space does decline from what would have been pre-COVID. Now, we're finding ways to reroute our lines and actually gain some of that capability back. But at the same time, as Doug also mentioned, we have access to additional space, and we're moving and expanding into some other areas to recapture that capacity. That takes a little bit of time, but we clearly will execute those plans. And as we see - if we see demand continuing to hold up as we would expect and we need that capacity, we will continue to grow our output.

Quinn Bolton

Analyst

Thank you.

Doug Bettinger

Management

Yes. Thanks, Quinn.

Tina Correia

Management

Okay, operator. I think that will conclude our call today for Lam Research. So thank you all for joining.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day, everyone. Take care.