Earnings Labs

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, May 5, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Louisiana-Pacific Corp. Q1 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Ms. Sallie Bailey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am, please go ahead. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great. Thank you very much, Michelle, and good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss LP's financial results for the first quarter of 2015. I am Sallie Bailey, LP's Chief Financial Officer, and with me today are Curt Stevens, LP's Chief Executive Officer; as well as Mike Kinney and Becky Barckley, our primary Investor Relations contacts. I will begin the discussion with a review of the financial results for the first quarter of 2015. This will be followed by some comments on the performance of individual segments and selected balance sheet items. After I finish my remarks, Curt will discuss the general market environment in which LP has been operating, provide his perspective on our operating results and give some thoughts on the outlook. As we have done in the past, we've opened up this call to the public and are doing a webcast. And that webcast can be accessed at www.lpcorp.com. Additionally, to help with the discussion, we have provided a presentation with supplemental information that should be reviewed in conjunction with the earnings release. I will be referencing these slides in my comment this morning. We have filed an 8-K this morning with some supplemental information, as well as our Form 10-Q. I want to remind all the participants about the forward-looking…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instruction] Our first question comes from the line of Gail Glazerman with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Can you give maybe a little bit more color on the strength in Siding, particularly looking at close to 20% volume growth on top of what I think was double-digit growth last year? Was there some sort of catch-up from prior quarters or what you shipped in the quarter is a sustainable level moving forward? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Gail, I'll take that. We did enjoy a very good quarter in Q1. A couple things there. One, Siding is not solely tied to single-family new construction. We have a big repair/remodel portion of that, and we also have at least two SKUs in every Home Depot, Lowe's and Menards store in North America. So we've been exploring those other markets and satisfying the needs there. In the first quarter, a little bit of an anomaly is in the repair/remodel business, they need to pre-finish – we have a series of pre-finishers that are our customers that then sell directly into the market. Those pre-finishers don't have the capability of finishing enough product to meet the annual demand unless they do it in the first quarter, so there is a little bit of a channel fill for the repair/remodel part of that, and we enjoyed those volumes that went into that market. As far as the sustainability going forward, for the next two quarters – actually the next three quarters we'll be constrained until Swan Valley comes online. As Sallie said, we didn't produce any OSB in our Siding mills; we ran them basically at capacity, but we also pulled down our inventories in the first quarter. And we won't have the opportunity to do that in the next couple of quarters. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And I'd add one other thing, Gail, just to remind you that we did have a Tomahawk expansion last year, so we increased the capacity in our Siding business last year with that project.

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, thanks. And can you expand a little bit on the comments about inventory channels being pretty full and ready availability? Is your – I mean, just how full do you think they are and are they full like ahead of a normal seasonal spring building season or a little bit chunkier than that? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, it's all anecdotal because there's no firm data out there. But I was actually with a big customer yesterday and what they said is they expected takeaways to be better than they were in April because of the return of the cold weather in the Northwest and the rain in the South – or Northeast rather and the rain in the South. They said the last couple of weeks, however, with the warmer weather they are seeing, those inventories come down. So I think it's a three- to four-week kind of issue. It probably started to dissipate a little bit in the middle of last month.

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. And can you talk a little bit about the wood situation in late state? I guess you're able to get wood; there's just the question at what cost and is there any line of sight for the cost normalizing? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, in the late stage, we're in a little bit of a – I mean, if you look at the wood supply in that area overall, we're in a little bit of a dip but we should come out of that the next couple of years where the growth should significantly exceed the drain. It's kind of the age classification of the wood there. What we did is we reach further out principally into Canada and again, we were aided by the Canadian exchange rate, so that helped us a little bit. So we are going to pull in wood from Canada to support those mills probably for the next couple of years. But then at that point in time, it also depends on what happens with the pulp mills in the area. We would expect to see wood costs to come down a little bit.

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. And on Chambord, when you're talking about other option, is that other option to secure wood for the facility should you choose to restart it? Or is that just other options at the facility other than keeping additional thing that could restart? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think there's three things we're looking at. One is to get the wood license back so we can run that at full capacity when it's needed in the market. Second is there is enough non-governmental wood in the area to run that 50% to 60%, so we'd look at how we could modify the facility to run at 50% to 60% on OSB and use the other capacity for some other use, and I don't know what that might be. And the third is we have shown an ability to relocate physical assets in other parts of the world. We would look at Chambord as another opportunity to do that, so that be the third option.

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. And then just quickly last quarter, I think you had indicated that oil prices to be, I think, $40 million to $50 million benefit this year. Is that still your view? And if not, can you give an updated estimate? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, that is current – our current view is at $50 million number.

Gail S. Glazerman - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Yes. Good morning and congratulations on the way you've really managed and grown the Siding business. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Question about that is as we go – if we look at the last few years, there does seem to be a seasonal element there and I know that could have been influenced by the fact you used to make more commodity OSB in that segment. But at any rate, it looks like the seasonal rise in revenue has been roughly $20 million from the first to the second quarter. I just didn't know if there's any reason not to assume something roughly similar, not asking you for a specific forecast, but are there factors that might have made the first quarter either unusually strong or – and therefore not in the normal pattern? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, as we just said, Chip, we had – Tomahawk was down as part of the first quarter of last year as we increased the capacity there. So we added significantly more available capacity in Tomahawk this first quarter than we did last year. In addition to that, we've manufactured probably 40 million square feet of OSB in Hayward last year and we didn't manufacture any this year. So we utilized the increased capacity at Tomahawk plus the conversion of the OSB we're running through Siding, so that allowed us to sell more product. And we are gaining traction in the – there's no question about that. We are seeing single-family new constructions coming back a little bit. We do have a presence in the multi-family with that product. And then repair/remodel in the non-residential structures have really been the bulk of the growth over the last year.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

I see. So what you're sure of suggesting is not quite the same bump seasonally. But is there also – as you think about costs going from first to second quarter, obviously you're dealing with less winter weather, but we do here about wood cost especially in the Upper Midwest being still elevated. Any thoughts on what you see profitability in that particular segment doing from first to the second? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, from first to second, as I said, we're probably going to have less volume actually ship because we shipped that inventory in addition to what we produced. So we're going to be constrained on the volume side until Swan Valley comes up in the fourth quarter. On the wood costs, our guys are saying we're going to be probably about flat on wood cost. We don't see any big change in Q2. We plan for the breakup, so we're in pretty good shape from that perspective.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So I would say volumes modify a little bit, not a lot. I can assure you if we can produce it, we'll sell it.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Yeah. And could you just update us quickly on what you're doing in South America? At this point, I know – I believe you're building something down there or moving a plant down there as well. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We're doing a couple of things. One, we are making a very small investment in an I-Joist line that probably will be operational towards the end of the year. When I say small, less than 5 million because we have been shipping product from our Engineered Wood business up here down there, and they do think they've got enough demand to begin to run their own. On the OSB side, we applied for the environmental permits last October. We got the comments from the government in the first quarter of January, February. We have now responded to all those comments and we'll be entering into – I think at the end of this week, we'll enter into a 30-day wait period for the government to hear back on that environmental permit. So we've been doing base engineering. We have acquired used equipment in the market for a portion of that facility. Actually, probably 75% of it we've acquired to-date. So the plan is as soon we get the environmental permitting, we'll complete the engineering and we hope to get board approval with that – for that project in October and we immediately start construction of that in the summer period in South America.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

And maybe with startup like second quarter next year, would that be a good guess or maybe later? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Probably later than that. It's probably a 9- to 12-month construction period, so it'd probably be towards the end of 2016.

Chip A. Dillon - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Got you. Okay, helpful. Thank you Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great. Thanks, Chip.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital. Please go ahead.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital. Please go ahead

Good morning, Sallie. Good morning, Curt. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital. Please go ahead

Just one quick question, just coming back to Chambord again. So, should we assume that converting that Chambord machine to Siding is completely ruled out or is that option on the table? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We did look at it. Chambord doesn't have rail which makes it a little bit hard from a logistic standpoint. What's nice about Swan is it does have rail service directly there. The other is that the wood species mix and Swan is better for – we consider better for our Siding products than the mix in Chambord. Chambord needs to be an OSB mill.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital. Please go ahead

Got you. That's helpful. And then coming back to Siding, obviously, it was a very good quarter. You talked about how volumes could be down a little bit. But just looking out a little bit on a medium-term basis, do you think margins in the 20% range are achievable if you go back to housing starts at 1.4 million, 1.5 million? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I certainly think they're achievable, yes.

Ketan Mamtora - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital. Please go ahead

Okay, that's helpful. That's all I've got. Thank you. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Yeah. Thanks. Curt, can you just talk a little bit more about what's going on down in Latin America with the weakness in Brazil? You guys able to operate there. Are you pushing product out of market and what's the strategy? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, what's hurting us in Brazil right now is when we've acquired that mill, most of the product going into Brazil was going into these industrial markets. So was for hoarding material like construction site, it was on packaging, it was being used for concrete forming. And we went in there with the expectation that we could change building practices like we did in Chile and we are, but we're doing that in a much slower rate. With the decline in the Brazilian economy, that core business that we acquired, that's the business that's declining. We're actually selling more into new home construction and we're selling more from an export standpoint, but we're selling less for that basic hoarding material on concrete forms because there's less activity going on. But what's been good for us is we've been able to take that excess capacity we have, manufacture the product and ship it to Chile to meet this demand that we have in Chile until we have the new mill operating. But similar to providing product for North America, you give all your profits to the shipper. So, shipping it from Brazil actually – to Chile is not any less expensive than shipping it out of the Southern U.S.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Right. But at least it allows you to run those plants, right? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, we're running the plant and we're making a contribution from an absorption standpoint, but we're not putting the profitability in than we need to.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Got you. Okay. And then just on the OSB side, one of the things that we've talked about before is diversifying OSB. I mean, obviously, Siding has been a great end market, but can you just talk a little bit more about what other end markets you feel like you've been able to move product into and what percent of sales you're at, at this point and what the targets might be? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I can't give you the sales breakdown. I don't have it in front of me. But we've been successful probably right after the Great Recession started, we started focusing on the furniture market and we've been successful in several manufacturers there. OSB actually provides better product for the frame of couches and chairs than plywood does. As we've had some success there, we've had some success in the transportation market and that's pretty broad. That could be inside of trailers, inside of trucks, be inside of containers. As we've had some success there, I think those are the principal areas. We are, as I said, continuing to look at other industrial applications that may have an opportunity. You can provide – you put a surface on the OSB and actually increase its usefulness.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Any sense on how much your product can go into those other markets or is it going into those other markets? I mean, is it like orders or the sales... Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's not that big right now. It's probably 10% – 5% to 10% right now. But we do think that there's the opportunity to grow that. The export market hasn't been that attractive to us with the strong dollar, so that's hurt our export business so it's down a little bit.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. And then just in Engineered Wood Products, the decline I-Joist in Q1, what's your outlook for that? Is that market balanced here in Q2 or... Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It was almost all in Western Canada, it was all pricing because we produce that in California and ship it to Canada in an $0.82 [Canadian] dollar. The local producers have a huge advantage and we just didn't want to take the loss.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. Are those markets getting any better? I mean, obviously not Canada, but can you move it in other markets? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Western Canada, we did put a price increase, but we're frankly focused at domestic markets in the U.S. and then out of our Eastern Canadian, the joint venture we have with Resolute, they benefit from the cost. And so our I-Joist sales into the eastern half of the U.S. are pretty good from a profitability standpoint.

Bill Hoffmann - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst · Bill Hoffmann with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Thank you. A couple quick follow-ups, if I could. First, can you give a sense of how much of the volume in Siding was from the drawdown of inventory? Did that account for like 5% or 10%, or how much the volume was? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think we drew it down by about 20 million feet, about 20 million feet.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. And order of magnitude, what's the total production in this quarter or volumes? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We did about 240 million.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, great. And... Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: A little less than 10%, looks like.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Great. And then the Swan River, how much capacity will that be adding to the system in terms of capability, recognizing you may ramp it up over time? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It should add about 450 million square feet. For OSB, it's a little higher than that, but can't run it as fast.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. So that's as much as a 40% type of increased capability? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. There's about 1 billion square feet of capacity for strand.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay. And so, is it reasonable to expect? I think you've talked in the past about the market growing at about a 15% clip. Is it conceivable that you can get that 15% and some catch-up from any constraint that might have developed this year? Is that a reasonable way to think about it for next year? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, first let me just clarify what – if I ever said anything about 15%, that would have been our own growth. The growth of Siding is dependent on level of housing activity and repair/remodel activity and the rest of that. We think we can grow faster than if we have the capacity. So we think we should be in the high teens double-digit.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, great. And then shifting real quickly, if I could, to OSB. You had indicated you thought it was about a three- to four-week issue in terms of the high channel – the high inventories in the channel, and I think you said that you thought it started to reverse in the middle of last month, so... Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Again, anecdotally, that's what our customers have said is that they've seen the takeaway from their inventory.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, great. So is it fair to say that hopefully, we're getting close to the point where the inventories in the channel you would think are reasonably balanced or am I misreading that? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think we're a couple of weeks away, but that's what it feels like to me.

Mark A. Weintraub - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Mark Weintraub with Buckingham Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, great. Thanks so much. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Yeah. Thanks very much. Guys, outlined the expansion at Tomahawk, and if you could just give us the numbers on that expansion. And there also was an expansion at Two Harbors was there not? I'm just kind of understand how you've grown that Siding segment in terms of capability over the last couple of years. Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We did the expansion at Two Harbors in 2013. We added about 25% capacity, and that was in smaller mills of like 120 million square feet, so I think we added 25 million square feet, 30 million square feet there and that is – we're producing all of that . In the Tomahawk, it was about a 50% expansion, so we probably went from 130 million to 190 million square feet.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Okay, great. And then just on Chambord, have you got any kind of legal or financial recourse on that for taking away the license? And then in terms of the wood supply for competing uses, I mean, is there other mills in that area that would automatically grab that wood or is that – you expect to get that back? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We expect to get it back. I think the premier is from the Lake Sanguinet (38:59) area, so it's very sensitive to the jobs in the area. I think we had a local mayor say if that wood was available, my god, there'd be a sawmill in here. So I think it's a little bit of French-Canadian bravado. We are the logical user of that. Resolute is the other big user in the area and they're our partner in the JV. And they think it would be the right thing to do to restart Chambord because we provide the web stock by truck to those operations, so it's very convenient from a JV standpoint.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

That makes sense, French-Canadians are known for that. And just lastly on North America, flat sales, profit down, is that all on FX or is there a cost increase in Brazil? Curtis M. Stevens - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, it's mainly FX. There is a little bit of pressure because there is a small amount of imported product that goes into Chile and puts a cap on pricing, so we have had pricing down in real dollars, but the FX is the biggest part of that.

Paul C. Quinn - RBC Dominion Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead

Great. That's all I had. Thanks, guys. Good luck. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great. Thank you, Paul.

Operator

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions at this time and I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Sallie Bailey for any closing comments. Sallie B. Bailey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Great. Well, thank you very much, Michelle and I'd like to thank everybody for participating in our call today. As always, Mike and Becky are here to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Thank you and we hope you have a very good day.