Chris Greiner
Analyst · Koji Ikeda from Oppenheimer
Thanks, Rob. The momentum he discussed is tangible as evidenced by the 16 point flame in our revenue growth rate year-over-year and is building as illustrated by the continued acceleration of key performance predictors across our business. In early 2018, we recognized the importance of investing ahead. We knew expanding our product leadership through strong partnership with major consumer messaging companies and with innovation in advanced AI capabilities would be a differentiator. We also sought to capitalize by building a demand generation engine, capable of tapping into the rapidly growing market of Conversational Commerce. In short, those investments are paying off. To start, we improved upon our initial 2018 growth outlook of 10% by 4 points, delivering mid-teens growth for the year. Coming back on those results, our total B2B revenue grew 15% in the quarter and 14% for the year. Within B2B, our enterprise business, which has been the focus of our investment, fueled our trajectory, increasing by more than 20% year-over-year. During the fourth quarter, we also began feeding investment in the mid-market SMB organization, which in turn, generated record 4Q contract signing. We expect this part of our business to return to growth now that we have opened up a Conversational Commerce ecosystem for smaller businesses. And our consumer segment continued its trend to four straight double-digit growth quarters, posting a 12% increase for the year. Our ARPU set new highs quarter after quarter in 2018 driven by enterprise and mid-market customers as they replaced more of their voice calls with messaging. This resulted in trailing 12-month average revenue per customer of greater than $285,000 in 4Q, up 25% year-over-year and representing the third straight 20% plus growth quarter. Compelling customer ROIs, high customer satisfaction metrics, rich agent experiences and a stable platform is the recipe for stickiness. To that end, our revenue retention rate for enterprise and mid-market customers exceeded 110% in 2018 on the back of an expanding ARPU combined with multi-year low attrition. Excluding the benefit of up-sells, our revenue renewal rate across our B2B segment was approximately 90% and our enterprise base having even higher revenue middle rate in the mid-90s, which we think is a best-in-class measure. We also saw our enterprise and mid-market customer acquisition engines begin to ramp as we scaled our marketing and channel investments. These investments contributed to a 50% increase in new customer wins in 2018. These wins allowed us to penetrate deeper into target verticals and geographies as illustrated by new relationships for us with five of the largest financial institutions in the world, two of the largest telcos, Delta Airlines, the top five global apparel retailer and one of the leading online travel agencies. We also gained more traction with partners such as IBM and Accenture. In fact, the percentage of wins influenced by partners grew by more than 30% year-over-year in 2018 and accounted for nearly one-third of signed ACV. From a geographic perspective, total U.S. revenue accounted for 61% of sales in the fourth quarter and generated 11% year-over-year growth, the strongest showing of the year driven by 17% growth in North America enterprise. Our total international revenue accounted for 39% of sales and delivered 21% growth, with international enterprise growing at 30% even against toughening compares. Our telco and financial services industry continues to leave growth in the fourth quarter, increasing at double-digit pace. Our largest vertical in 2018 was consumer retail, at 25% of revenue, followed by telcos at 20%, financial services at 19%, auto at 11%, high-tech at 7% and other at 19%. Finally, in terms of profit in the fourth quarter, on a per share basis, GAAP net loss of $0.11, adjusted operating income of $1.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $0.08 while within or better than our issued guidance ranges. Cash on hand held steady quarter-over-quarter at $66.5 million or approximately $1.06 per share. With these metrics in mind, we believe we have a proven blueprint for investing in the capabilities and the capacity necessary to win the Conversational Commerce market. We hear from our customers how much they value expertise and innovation. And in 2018, we delivered meaningful impact in each of these areas. Let me expand on that. From a technology standpoint, our investments were pointed towards innovation and operational excellence. We recognize that scalability, stability and availability can be a focus not at the expense of innovation, but alongside it. The fruits of our investments can be seen through many lenders. To begin, we hired a world class leadership team with deep AI and data science expertise. We leveraged their leadership to more than triple the number of messaging endpoints integrated on LiveEngage, adding Apple Business Chat, WhatsApp, Google Rich Business Messenger, Google Ad Lingo and Alexa in just 8 months. And this is important to our business model because each endpoint brings new cross-selling opportunities to our expansive customer base. Our added engineering capacity allowed us to launch Maven, our groundbreaking patent pending AI engine, which promises to scale messaging with even more efficiency and maintain, if not extend what we estimate is a 12 to 18 month technology lead. And our continued focus on quality is paying of. That’s illustrated by a 20 point increase in our most recent net promoter score survey. Turning to our go-to-market investments, in 2018, we focused on building market awareness and creating a scalable demand generation engine. To achieve this, we have doubled the number of large scale customer summits across the globe and expanded the ecosystem from which new opportunities can be sourced. This combination had an immediate and substantial impact. Since June 30, 2018, the aggregate contract value of our enterprise pipeline has increased 25%. And while impressive, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Over that same period, the number of Enterprise pipeline opportunities is up approximately 80% driven by strong demand for our accelerated pilot program. These data points echo Rob comment earlier that demand is surging. Thanks to our investments in technology and channel, we have more products to sell, more partners to sell with, more references to support our selling efforts and in industry that is moving into mainstream adoption and ready to make purchase decisions. Combined, the demand in our pipeline is outpacing our sales capacity, which presents a great opportunity as seen on Page 13 of our supplemental earnings deck. To illustrate this, LivePerson had approximately 50 global quota-carrying reps at the end of 2018, which was below the 55 we had in 2015. And as Rob said that was even before we launched the Conversational Commerce. Compared to industry benchmarks, our average sales rep is currently handling 2x to 3x the number of opportunities that would be ideal. This is why we are confident that the time is right to invest in go-to-market capacity so we can go even deeper with our existing customers and have sufficient scale to pursue the enormous green space opportunity in front of us. This is a good opportunity to transition to guidance: focusing first on the specificities and timing of our investment profile and second, on its return and contribution to our ramping growth rate and operating leverage during 2019 and into 2020. First, with respect to investment, our plan is to increase sales capacity by 90% in 2019. In order to maximize in-year productivity, hiring will be heavily weighted towards the first and second quarters and is anticipated to be allocated as follows. We will emphasized quota-carrying reps sales development reps and partner managers. Approximately 80% of the spend will be directed to enterprise and 20% to midmarket and SMB and about one-third of the investment will be in North America and two-thirds internationally. From a program perspective, our marketing calendar suggests that front-end loaded 2019, with about three quarters of the spend on customer summit taking place in the first half of the year. First quarter, in particular, is active with events in Dallas, New York City, Berlin and Barcelona, along with multi-city tours throughout Europe with our technology partners. From an in-year payback standpoint, we expect our new sales reps and customer event activity to produce an initial revenue contribution by the third quarter of 2019, a more meaningful contribution in the fourth quarter and then full contribution by early 2020. More specifically, we are issuing revenue guidance for 2019 in the range of $285 million to $293 million or 14% to 17% year-over-year growth. The linearity of our growth in 2019 is perhaps more important than the full year range itself as it best demonstrates the ramping of investment returns and our exit rates going into 2020. We expect continued mid-teens growth in the first half of 2019 as we build our sales capacity and drive more initial opportunities through low price accelerator packs. As these convert and new sales reps become productive we anticipate an acceleration in the second half towards high-teens to 20% by the fourth quarter. On the back of that momentum, we then expect to generate at least 20% growth for the full year of 2020. From the 2019 profit perspective, our hiring activity will be heavily front-end loaded for both sales capacity and the continued build-out of our global product organization. We expect the vast majority of our hiring in both areas to be complete by the end of the second quarter and anticipate minimal headcount growth in the second half. Likewise, this is planned pacing of our customer events. Our marketing spend in the second half should trend modestly lower than in the first half. With these revenue and investment dynamics in mind, we are guiding to a 2019 adjusted EBITDA range of $10 million to $15 million, which implies the margin of 4% to 5%. The pacing of adjusted EBITDA is expected to be as follows. Given the immediate and consistent hiring quickly and heavy volume of first quarter and second quarter customer summits, we anticipate modest losses in the first half of 2019 with a double-digit margin in the second half as hiring the base, marketing spend is slow then our go-to-market investments begin to drive higher revenue. We expect renewed year-over-year margin expansion in 2020. We look forward to expanding significantly 2020 and the long-term financial model at our upcoming Analyst Day planned for May 8 in New York City. You can refer to our earnings release for additional details on our full year 2019 assumptions. As we wrap up and take your questions, I want to close with a few overarching points of emphasis. First, our disciplined test and learn approach to investing in technology and demand generation in 2018 worked and we executed well on the full year 2018 plan, exceeding even our own expectations. Second, we are applying those learnings as a blueprint for how to fully scale-out our technology, demand generation and sales team. Our emphasis on completing those investments in early 2019 will create an exciting escape velocity for our financial business models and look to the 2020 and beyond. And third, we are committed to capitalizing on our leadership position, continuing to bring exciting innovations, new used cases, rich experiences for our customers and increased value for our shareholders. With that, I hand the call back to the operator to take your questions. Operator?