Mark Stephen Casady - LPL Financial Holdings, Inc.
Management
Yeah. We've tried to paint the picture that essentially, in the worst case, so alternative investments would basically go away under this proposal, it doesn't change. In a role over retirement account, those would not be allowed. The way the DOL works is they have to give you a specific exemption by asset type. So there's a whole part of the rule that this is the part actually read. It shows some of your product pieces and you have to essentially apply for or get an exemption for specifically named product, quite different than the regulatory structure of the SEC or FINRA. And so what's important about that is that if this rule stays in place, I think several things will happen. One is geography. Right? So, think about what our advisor does. They sit down with the client. They start on some form of financial plan that can be either quite simple or very complex. We have multiple technologies available to them to do that financial plan from very sophisticated to fairly rudimentary. They then establish that plan, and in looking at that plan, they typically are talking to a client about both their taxable assets and their tax exempt assets. So they would look at it and say, what we're trying to do is get to a certain yield across this portfolio, trying to get to a certain return across this portfolio with end year given risk tolerance. Let's say that you have a low risk tolerance. Well, we'll still need to get you exposure to the market, the stock market, because if you don't have exposure in year-on-year 50s or 60s, you're going to have a problem with inflation eroding your earnings power 10 years or 20 years from now. So what would be a good way to do that? A variable annuity would be a good way to do that that has downside protection built in it that would be there, or it may be that it's a large cap growth, equity portfolio could be appropriate as a way to get that exposure. Another way to look at yield, of course, is non-traded REITs are a way of essentially locking in a yield over the lifetime of that non-traded REIT, without necessarily as much principal integration, as you'd see, in a traded REIT. When you think about that planning, typically what you'd say to both the wealthy individual and to a middle income consumer is, let's put the high-yielding asset in your tax-free account. Because by putting it there, we're going to save you some taxes that's going to allow you to build up tax free using the seventh – the eighth wonder of the world, compound interest of that – the earnings that you have there to build up more assets over time. The problem with the rule, as we see it today, is that it takes away a fundamental planning right from middle income consumers by not allowing higher yielding assets to be in their tax-free accounts. What we'll likely have on those, they still need a higher yielding asset, so we're just moving to the taxable part of their portfolio. So that's the geography piece. Second piece of it is that let's assume that for whatever reason, remember that we are in a different part of the cycle for real estate, there's certainly a plenty of good real estate investments to make, but there's fewer today than there were five years ago I think we can all see that. And therefore, it might just be a different time for you to have less real estate. We've seen that in our own commission line where we just have fewer sales as we go forward and as we have over the last year than we had the year before that. And so certainly we could see that, that the integration income is just what I would describe as the change in opportunity in the market in terms of investment. So, as I look at a lot and we think about what does it mean, what it means is you are going to see a mix shift at the commission top line of our business. We've seen mix shifts before, and mix shifts are a normal part of our business. We price the way that we get paid from the advisor. Our take of that is price differently based on the aggregate of those sponsor payments and other payments, account fees and so forth that come with each product type. That allows us to withstand that mix shift that occurs. Not a perfect one for one, but it's close. Second point you made is that there is cost. Non-traded REITs and variable REITs are manually processed. So, by definition, they require quite a bit more human capital for us to process plus there is additional regulatory oversight. We certainly have shown that and certainly have shown the need to build a larger group of people who oversee the activities that occur for those particular products. We feel good about our review of them and feel that we've made substantial progress there over the last year in particular. As we look at it, that cost would go away if those products go away. Again, that will happen naturally as we see volumes change based on opportunities of the marketplace. If it were to happen more dramatically, it would just make its way through and we'd save some money. So if we say, okay, let's just assume that 40% of sales in REITs, that is the number, alternative investments in particular are going through retirement-based accounts today. And if you look at the aggregate of our gross profit, which is 5% for that category, and roughly 40% of 5% would go away. That's 2% of gross profit that's going to shift. So there's going to be some offset of that, and we're going to save some money by not having as much in processing cost. Depending on the mix shift, that recovery could be 50% quite easily, and with some of the cost savings, could be more. We don't really want to get to that level of detail because there's still a lot more to sort out. But in the worst case, it would be a 2% gross profit reduction and that is not material in the size. And the last thing I'd say is let's just put that in scale to cash sweeps. We have gone through an enormous downturn in earnings power on cash. I think everyone has noticed that across the entire industry. We had a unique set of contracts at the end of 2008 that allowed us to essentially withstand that change. We're only getting the market pricing next year, pretty remarkable. That's about $20 million a year of EBITDA hit that you've watched step down through the P&L over the last couple of years, including this year, and we have one more left in 2016. A 2% of gross profit, that's less than what we've had in one year of cash sweep downturn. That is not material for this business and something that, to my mind, that can easily be overcome in the to-ing and fro-ing that goes on in any business.