Earnings Labs

Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 7, 2019

$38.54

+1.53%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Dorian LPG First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Theodore Young

Analyst

Thanks, Devin. Good morning, all, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2020 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; and John Lycouris, Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG USA. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through August 14, 2019. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from these we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended June 30, 2019, that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Form 10-K and 10-Q, where you'll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

John Hadjipateras

Analyst

Welcome to our first quarter 2020 earnings call. On our last call, I mentioned some historical rates. Allow me to do the same today as I think these put context to our market. Four years ago, in August 2015, the multi grade was $101; 12 months ago, in August 2018, it was $39; on the 1st of April of this year, the first day of our quarter, it was $41; and on the last, June 28, it was $78. Ted will shortly run through the numbers and next, John will update you on the latest developments in the trade as well as our fleet. I am happy to be reporting a profitable quarter, a sevenfold increase in EBITDA from last year, which is reflective of the strong increase in the markets. The TCE we're reporting is nearly double that of the same quarter of last year. At $29,671 a day, it represents the result of about 70 voyages. Of these, almost half were booked in the January to March quarter. Hence, there is a lag, which we have discussed in previous calls as well. To illustrate this, note that our fixtures in June, which, of course, are for voyages that are not represented in these results were booked a time charter equivalent of over $60,000 per day. In the period since the end of June and the period to date, the average TCE of our fixtures is about $50,000 a day. Assuming no dramatic changes, these stronger numbers will be reflected in the quarter and the next quarter results. The EIA reported yesterday record U.S. production and lower U.S. demand. While U.S. cargoes are reaching new destinations in Asia, there are still markets such as Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, which have further potential. Even in India, where LPG has been a cornerstone of the Modi government's policy, the potential for further inroads is great, considering that there is still 800,000 deaths annually attributable to indoor air pollution caused by cooking with solid fuels. With the order book contained and the prospects of removals for regulatory compliance, we believe the market fundamentals provide some solid support for our optimism. With 12 of our ships fitted with exhaust gas cleaning systems by the beginning of next year, we believe Dorian will be very well positioned to navigate the IMO 2020 transition. Our people diligently continue to pursue cost efficiencies. Our senior management remuneration is flat to lower than it has been in the 4 years since our IPO, and we have commenced programs involving digital initiatives for performance management, including intelligent bunkering. You will have read that our Board has approved a stock buyback program. As you might guess, we cannot discuss the specifics of this, other than to say that it underscores our Board's commitment to return value to all our shareholders. I'm now passing the microphone back to Ted.

Theodore Young

Analyst

Thanks. My comments today will focus on our capital planning for the remainder of the year and our unaudited first quarter results. In light of the favorable rate outlook, we've expanded and accelerated our scrubber installation and dry docking program. We now expect to have all 10 of our newly-ordered scrubbers installed by the end of calendar 2019. Upon completion of the program, 12 of our 23 vessels will be able to profit from the expected fuel price differential between low sulfur fuel oil and high sulfur fuel oil following the implementation of IMO 2020. Based on this revised plan, we now expect to have total cash outlays of roughly $31 million or about $5,000 per calendar day for the remainder of the fiscal year for the 10 dry dockings, including scrubber installation and ballast water management system installation. Thus, for the remainder of the year, we anticipate cash cost per day of $28,000, which is the sum of the $23,000 per day to which we have historically guided and the $5,500 just mentioned. To put the cash generation of our business in context in the current rate environment at a rate -- a realized fleet-wide TCE rate of $40,000 a day, we would generate roughly $76 million of free cash flow for the remaining 9 months of this fiscal year after all debt payments and paying for the scrubber and dry docking and investments. John also mentioned our stock buyback authority, and we expect that we will have sufficient liquidity to fund our scrubber dry docking program and any stock repurchases under the program as market conditions may allow. If we end up debt financing any portion of our scrubber program, we will obviously have additional liquidity, which we may deploy towards stock buybacks. I'd now like to turn…

John Lycouris

Analyst

Thank you, Ted. U.S. LPG exports year-to-date through July have grown 22% to 22.5 million tons and Middle East exports have grown 3.5% to 22.6 million tons compared with the same period of 2018. For the first time, U.S. and Middle East segment volumes were equal, and the expectation is that the U.S. exports will grow faster than those from the Middle East, as additional export capacity comes online. In total from the U.S., we saw 68 VLGC listings in April, 64 in May, 63 in June and for July, a new record of 70 listings. U.S. propane inventories continue to push towards the higher end of their 5-year range, hitting 18 million barrels in July 26. These levels are 21.4% higher than last year at this time and are almost equal to export volume increases. EIA short-term energy forecast estimates LPG market production increased Permian volumes from the Shin Oak pipeline, and we expect further volume increases to continue in third quarter of 2019 with the opening of the Grand Prix pipeline. AltaGas' new Ridley Island terminal on the West Coast of Canada is now exporting two cargos a month, while enterprise expects its LPG marine terminal expansion to be ready by the end of September, followed by an even more substantial expansion in the third quarter of 2020. Targa Resources announced an expansion project of 200,000 barrels per day by next year and Energy Transfer Partners announced scheduling changes this summer to facilitate vessel loadings and increased refrigeration capacity at our Netherlands terminal by September 2020. Sunoco's Marcus Hook terminal has maintained a strong loading schedule last quarter, exporting 9 VLGC cargoes in April, 10 in May and 9 in June. Over the past few months, LPG volumes from the U.S. East Coast have primarily been direct to…

John Hadjipateras

Analyst

Thank you, John. Devin, are there any questions?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of [indiscernible].

John Hadjipateras

Analyst

Who is it?

Operator

Operator

We actually may have lost that line. [Operator Instructions]. There appear to be no questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Hadjipateras for closing comments.

John Hadjipateras

Analyst

Thank you very much, Devin, and thank you all for listening. Thank you for making part of your time during the summer, and we wish you a good rest of the summer, and look forward to having you again on our next quarterly call in due course. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.