Brian Mueller
Analyst · Baird. Your line is open
Good afternoon and welcome to Grand Canyon Education’s first quarter fiscal year 2021 conference call. GCE had another successful quarter and the long-term future is very bright. We are experiencing some short-term issues due to the pandemic, which I’ll explain in a minute. However, long-term, we’re building three unique and differentiated platforms that will provide significant and impactful growth. The pandemic has been a serious challenge for universities in many are experiencing financial issues. In addition, many recent college graduates who are new to the job market are having a difficult time. Many have degrees that aren’t serving them well in the current economy. It has been GCE’s goal to create educational models that address the real issues within higher education. I believe those issues continue to be; one, the out of control rising cost of university education. From the early 1980s to the 2000 – late 2010s the price of college increased eight times the increase in wages. Two, the increasing student debt levels that will seriously hinder graduates as they begin their adult lives. Three, as tuition levels go up university and college campuses go down. Four, bachelor’s degrees should not take four to six years to complete. Five, programs and delivery models lack to creativity and flexibility necessary to address critical shortages in some industries. Six, there are inadequate counseling and support services, especially for first-generation students are those studying at a distance. Seven, three-fifths of college graduates would change their majors if they were starting over. Eight, prior to the pandemic, 43% of college graduates were underemployed in their first job, two-thirds remained in jobs that don’t require college degrees five years later. Grand Canyon Education is a large organization over 4,600 staff, is in a very strong financial position, and can invest in educational infrastructure to help institutions address some significant opportunities in the employment marketplace. One of our partner institutions now derives 13% of their total revenues from GCE/Orbis healthcare programs, and they want to do more. The combination of institutions looking for additional revenue streams and our ability to help them launch programs locally that prepare students for in-demand occupations is creating rapid partnership growth. Let me explain how GCE is in a great position to support the three main pillars or platforms of our business. The first pillar, Grand Canyon University Online, has 91,334 students. As of March 31, 2021, and in the quarter just completed, new students grew on a comparable-start basis in the high single-digits, while total students grew 7.2% year-over-year. GCU has historically put a priority on new program development it helps students gain employment and build careers in the modern economy, as also focused on programs leading to professional licensure with most of those being at the graduate level. When the pandemic hit last March, we saw an unprecedented surge in new enrollment in the months of April, May and June. New enrollments continue to grow above our stated objectives the next nine months, and total enrollments grew above expectations because of very high retention and re-entry rates. We knew the second quarter of this year would be challenging because of the very high comps, but we were also running into three additional challenges. New starts did not meet expectations this April and will not meet expectations in May, mainly because schools, hospitals, counseling centers, haven’t opened up the way we expected them to and our access to the employees hasn’t returned to normal. In addition, because of higher retention rates, the number of graduates are exceeding our expectations and our re-entry pool right up. 12 months ago, when the pandemic hit and people were sent home, as we said before, there was a surge in new enrollment, as people were looking to do something productive with their time. One year later as the country is beginning to open up, people are adjusting to the new reality of what going back to work means for them and whether their children will be in school or not. And so there was some indecision at the end of April in some students decided not to start. However, we believe that we will begin to rebound in the third and fourth quarters as schools reopened and as hospitals, counseling centers and businesses resume more normal operations. The miss in enrollment at the end of the second quarter will be mostly at the graduate level. We haven’t pivoted to recruiting more adult undergraduate students in the short-term, because GCU’s high quality student body produces very good metrics, including high graduation rates, low cohort default rates, 72% on a 90%-10% [ph] and low student debt amounts as compared to state and private universities. We consider this enrollment challenge to be short-term only. We are already seeing things begin to open up in May and we don’t want change a very successful 13-year strategy as a result. The second pillar or platform to our business is the GCU traditional campus. As many of you know, we began the fall semester with 22,363 ground campus students of whom approximately 5,000 traditional campus students stayed at home and took their classes online. In the spring 2021 semester, we started with 19,721 ground campus students of whom approximately 35,100 traditional campus as students stayed home and took their classes online. This resulted in approximately 3000 fewer students paying room board and other fees related to being an on-campus student. However, this was partially offset because GCU actually had an increase of 11.5% in ground traditional students, excluding professional studies. GCU recently put a message out stating that the campus intends to be fully up and running in a traditional manner in the fall semester – of the 2021-2022 academic year. We are still printing to meet our established enrollment goals. GCU’s traditional campus in a very strong position is becoming a bigger part of the strategy every day. GCU’s goal is now to have 40,000 students on its traditional campus in West Phoenix. The pandemic has made it abundantly clear that 18-year old students desire to have a campus experience as much now as they ever have. It just needs to be affordable. The combination of GCU and GCE and building out traditional campus has many strategic advantages. One, Phoenix is a destination city and Arizona is a destination state. Two, GCU was invested $1.5 billion in educational infrastructure and the campus currently – campus is currently ranked 19th in the country. GCU has a great – number three, GCU has a great tuition in 12 years, and their students take out less debt than the average state university student. In addition, the Wall Street Journal recently released average parent plus debt amounts. GCU parents take out approximately 50% of the debt amount taken out by the three heavily subsidized state universities in Arizona. Four, GCU now has nine colleges. They have over 209 academic programs, emphasis and certificates. Five, GCU is adding more than 20 new programs per year targeted at growing occupational areas. Six, the university will invest $500 million additional in the next four years. What’s the plan to grow at its campus to accommodate 40,000 students? Universities in a strong financial position in the aftermath of a split from GCE to become a non-profit institution, it is financing all its current CapEx and has $325 million in cash as of March 31, 2021. Those that predicted the transaction would produce financial ruin to the university were very, very wrong. Seven, GCE has almost 200 people involved in the recruiting process. Eight, GCE has a state-of-the-art marketing and advertising agency to develop efficient and productive campaigns. Nine, GCE has invested heavily in building out virtual tours of campus, live classroom demos to expose current high school students to GCU during the pandemic when travel is limited. And 10, GCU’s Christian and free-market positioning makes it attractive to a large national audience with very few affordable, scalable options. The third pillar or platform of the business is, Grand Canyon Education/Orbis. Our goal is to continue the rapid expansion of partners, some of which want to provide both healthcare and non-healthcare programs. GCE bought Orbis 26 months ago. Since that time we have expanded to 26 partners. We opened eight new off campus classroom and laboratory sites in the past nine months, partially offset by the planned non-renewal of the contract with a university partner with two sites in the first quarter of 2021 resulting in an increase of these sites to 29 as compared to 23 at March 31, 2020. We have signed a contract with a new partner in the Southern California market, and we are close to signing a contract with the new partner in the New York City market. We will open medical labs science programs with two new partners in the fall. We are working very hard at a number of locations in the west to implement GCU’s nursing and other health care programs. The goal is to have over 40 locations by the end of 2022, 50 locations by the end of 2023, and eventually to grow to 80 locations. This is a huge national platform in which to enroll students and produce graduates. GCE now has not only the largest partner in the OPM space. GCU is also rapidly adding partners. This is happening because; first, many quality universities are experiencing financial stress and looking for options to increase their revenues. Second, there are important healthcare and other technology careers that are experiencing serious shortages. Third, universities don’t have the resources to scale many of those programs. Fourth, GCE has the capital and then know how to scale those programs and create opportunities for thousands of underemployed young adults, while keeping universities – while helping universities create important additional revenue streams. Most locations start with the ABSN program, but most have the ability and desire to scale up to as many as 10 additional programs. Sites will eventually accommodate between 250 to 1,000 students in multiple programs. Programs will cost between $30,000 and $60,000, take between 12 months and 24 months, and lead to jobs paying between $50,000 and $100,000. Most of the students in those programs will have already completed a bachelor’s degree but consider themselves underemployed. GCU will fill many of the sites in the west and will continue to expand into additional healthcare and non-healthcare academic areas. GCE is pleased to announce that it has signed an agreement with Harding University, which will include multiple Orbis sites as well as a fully developed model for some of their master’s degree programs. This is the first more comprehensive contract and may be replicated once it becomes successful. Grand Canyon Education has three large, well-financed, highly professional platforms to grow within the next five years. Each platform is addressing real needs in the market and is producing high-quality outcomes for our partners and the economy. I have never been more excited about the future of GCE. In the previous conference call, I outlined at GCE and GCU five-point plan designed to transform an inner-city neighborhood. We are very proud of the ongoing efforts that are producing real results. In addition, GCU/GCE recently opened up a vaccination center on campus to serve our neighborhood. That center provided a total of 116,000 vaccinations in a 12-week timeframe. That very important work was provided by 4,380 volunteers who worked 31,463 volunteer hours resulting in no cost to the taxpayer. The project was assisted by partnerships with Chicanos Por La Causa, and our local Mexican embassy, and provided a much needed service to a very vulnerable population. With that, I would like to turn it over to Dan Bachus, our CFO, to give a little more color on our 2021 first quarter. Talk about changes in the income statement, balance sheet and other items as well as to provide 2021 guidance.