Earnings Labs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, May 4, 2017

$167.49

+1.39%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Grand Canyon Education First Quarter 2017 Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Brian Roberts, General Counsel. Sir, you may begin.

Brian M. Roberts - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Speaking on today's call is our Chairman, President and CEO, Brian Mueller; and our CFO, Dan Bachus. Please note that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause our actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such statements. These factors are discussed in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and current reports on Form 8-K. We undertake no obligation to provide updates with regard to the forward-looking statements made during this call and we recommend that all investors review these reports thoroughly before taking up financial position in Grand Canyon. And, with that, I will turn the call over to Brian.

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Good afternoon and thank you for joining Grand Canyon University's first quarter 2017 conference call. In the first quarter of 2017, enrollments grew by 11% and revenues grew by 9.4%. New enrollments grew in the mid-teens year over year. Operating margins are at 30.9%. We had another great quarter. I again want to thank our faculty and staff for their hard work and the incredible results they continue to produce. As many of you know, our long-term goals are to grow the University's enrollments by 6 percentage points to 8 percentage points per year, grow revenues by 8 percentage points to 9 percentage points per year, and grow margins by 20 basis points on an annual basis without raising tuition. The enrollment growth is a combination of online enrollments growing 6% to 7% and our traditional campus enrollments growing by 8% to 10%. Revenue growth will happen as a result of continued increases in retention levels and ground enrollments becoming a larger percentage of total enrollment. Revenue typically exceeds enrollment growth. This quarter it did not due to a shift in the start dates for the spring semester for ground traditional students. This past weekend, we finished the traditional academic year with six graduations in our arena attended by approximately 30,000 graduates, family members, and friends. What is becoming so obvious is that the student stereotypes that fund and supply to not-for-profit, and for-profit universities are gross over simplifications. There is a wide spectrum of institutions in the for-profit sector even as there is a wide spectrum of institutions in the not-for-profit sector. Institutional comparison should be made according to their programmatic and student types, and not with respect to their tax status. We had 17,400 students on campus this year, and that number will grow to over 19,000 next…

Daniel E. Bachus - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Brian. Revenue exceeded our expectations in the first quarter of 2017, primarily due to higher online enrollments as a result of higher-than-expected new enrollments and higher-than-anticipated ancillary revenues. Revenue per student decreased between years, primarily due to a shift in the timing of our residential and traditional campus start dates, as the spring semester started five days later in 2017 than in 2016, and we have one less day of revenue due to 2016 being a leap year. Online revenue per student was down slightly year over year, primarily due to the one less day of revenue, the timing of the holiday break, mix changes and the fact that we did not raise tuition levels during 2016. Scholarships as a percentage of revenue decreased from 19.1% in Q1 2016 to 18% in Q1 2017, due primarily due to decrease in the traditional scholarship rate year over year as a percentage of total revenue and an increase in the ancillary revenues, partially offset by growth in our ground traditional student base. Online scholarships as a percentage of related revenue were up slightly year over year. Bad debt expense as a percentage of revenue improved slightly from 2% in Q1 2016 to 1.8% in Q1 2017. Our effective tax rate for the first quarter 2017 was 26.5% as compared to 38.0% in the first quarter of 2016. The lower effective tax rate year over year is due to our adoption of the share-based compensation standard in the first quarter of 2017, which resulted in the recognition of excess tax benefits from share-based compensation awards that vested or settled in 2017 to be recorded in the consolidated income statement. Previously, they were recorded directly to equity. The inclusion of excess tax benefits and deficiencies as a component of our income tax expense…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler with Robert W. Baird. Your line is open. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Yeah. Thank you. Good afternoon. In terms of the success that you've had with the new program rollouts, just wondering how much legs that initiative could have. So the programs that you rolled out thus farther driving the growth, do some of these have some pretty significant scale potential and can continue to grow over the next several years? And then, how many meaningful new programs are there still yet to roll out incrementally over the next several years?

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

At least our goal is that we will roll out a minimum of 20 on an annual basis. It will probably exceed that. The programs largely are coming out of the existing nine colleges that we have. If there is any that have a chance to scale to a significant number, it would be in the IT areas. But the rest are – many of them are in our core areas of education, healthcare, business, although we are growing in our IT programs and that would be the one that would have a chance to become one of our larger programs, possibly. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then I just want to make sure that I'm hearing you right. It seems from the results and the tone that the demand environment remains good and you're executing well. So there is nothing in terms of the back-half guidance assumption of mid-single digit online new enrollment growth. There is nothing other than the mathematically tougher comp that you're seeing, correct?

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

That's it. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then just finally, Dan, what was the reason for the slight tweak down in Q4 adjusted EPS guidance?

Daniel E. Bachus - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Higher effective tax rate. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Is that related to the stock option or the equity accounting or is it something else?

Daniel E. Bachus - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

No. It's almost all that. Because of our higher income, our permanent items are very small and so given a higher income, we saw a slight increase in our expectations of effective tax rate excluding the new accounting pronouncement. So that was 10 basis points or 20 basis points. The rest is all because we believe that we're not going to get nearly as much benefit from stock option exercises in the tail half of the year. It's all been accelerated we think, but the vast majority will be accelerated into the first half of this year given the higher stock price. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Appert with Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Thank you. Good afternoon. Brian, I know you've addressed this in the past, but I'm wondering if you've given any route or further thought to the issue of just the cosmetics around margin performance. This is a good news-bad news, right? Your performance is outstanding, but it perhaps draws attention to you guys. How do you think about that?

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Three or four years ago that was a concern. If you remember, there were people prior to The Great Recession commencing in 2008 that were producing huge margins and a lot of it was in the backup of annual tuition increases of 6% to 8% annually. We're in a position now where the hybrid campus and the combination of the traditional campus and the online campuses becoming so efficient that our margins have expanded, but they've expanded without raising tuition. And so the value proposition that this continues to represent for students is tremendous. It allows us to continue to reinvest in higher education, infrastructure and new programs and investors are experiencing positive results as well. So no, it does not at this point – it doesn't bother us like it did at one point. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Understood. Thank you. And then, another sort of big picture question, it feels like the competitive dynamic in terms of what you face in the online market has really shifted, right. The state goal is taking a much bigger role, I'm thinking about this Purdue transaction, how do you think that impacts you and in particular this Purdue transaction?

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Well, it's the – funny you asked that question. The Purdue, if you look at carefully at the Purdue transaction, it looks very, very similar, not exact to the transaction that we proposed a while back. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Right.

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

And that transaction was basically approved by the visiting team and then voted down by the board. And so, we're going to be watching that carefully and see how that progresses. What we do in the future we don't know. We would do anything that we would do differently than today would be in the best interest of the university and our investors. But it is to our – we need to keep watching to see how that goes. The reason we've been able to withstand the shift of students going to for-profit schools and going – and instead going to universities who are now – have now adapted to same delivery model is because for the most part students don't see us as a for-profit institution. They see us as a traditional university with a growing dynamic and student body, and everything else that goes with that. And so that's been our big advantage. If there's a way down the road for us to have a not-for-profit university and a for-profit service company, and that would be to the benefit of both the university and to our shareholders, we would consider that. We're just going to have to watch it. But we've been able to withstand this thing, in fact not just withstand it, our brand is getting stronger. And the more people look into who we are, who are students are, our programs and our graduates, the more convinced people become, their tax status is irrelevant when considering a university and the benefits that you can get from university. And that's why I made some of the comments I made earlier, because – and that's an important narrative that has to get out there to offset some of the comments of our detractors. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Right. Thanks, Brian.

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

Yes.

Brian E. Mueller - Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Management

We've reached the end of our first quarter conference call. We appreciate your time and interest in Grand Canyon Education. If you still have questions, please contact either myself, Dan Bachus or Bob Romantic. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.