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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 31, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the El Pollo Loco Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. On the call today, we have Bernard Acoca, President and Chief Executive Officer of El Pollo Loco; and Larry Roberts, Chief Financial Officer. And now I'd like to turn the conference over to Larry Roberts.

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon. By now, everyone should have access to our third quarter 2019 earnings release. If not, it can be found at www.elpolloloco.com in the Investor Relations section. Before we begin our formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, you should not put undue reliance on them. These statements are also subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. We refer all of you to our recent SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial condition. We expect to file our 10-Q for the third quarter of 2019 tomorrow, and we'd encourage you to review that document at your earliest convenience. During today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. And reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release. I'd now like to turn the call over to President and Chief Executive Officer, Bernard Acoca.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst

Thanks, Larry. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. Our third quarter results demonstrated accelerating comparable restaurant sales momentum as we continue to make progress executing our transformation agenda. System-wide comparable restaurant sales growth in the quarter was 1.1% or 3.7% on a 2-year basis, representing our fifth straight quarter of positive system-wide comparable restaurant sales. As you may recall, we started out negative in July. So we were very pleased to see sales growth improve throughout the quarter. In fact, the month of September was our strongest month of the year-to-date in terms of sales. System comparable restaurant sales growth in September was 4.2% and included positive traffic, which is particularly impressive given the 3% growth comparison from last year. Our momentum has continued into the fourth quarter as system-wide comparable sales and transactions continue to be positive in October. In addition to the ongoing impact of our transformation agenda, we believe the strong results are being driven by the expansion of our delivery capabilities and our current focus on value. During the quarter, we supplemented our DoorDash relationship by adding both Postmates and Uber Eats delivery marketplaces as additional options for our customers. We now have approximately 420 restaurants on all 3 marketplaces, including all of our company-operated locations. In conjunction with this expansion, we rolled out a new curated delivery menu system-wide, which places a heavier emphasis on family meals and combos in order to drive more profitable sales through these third-party marketplaces. Results thus far have been encouraging, and we have seen our system delivery mix increase from approximately 1% to approximately 3%. Also in September, we emphasized value through our $5 Fire-Grilled Combos promotion. The combos, which mixed extremely well, include a choice of 5 of our most popular entrée items…

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Thanks, Bernard. Before we get into our third quarter results, I'd first like to provide a quick update on our store base. During the quarter, we opened one new company-operated restaurant in Los Angeles. We expect to open 2 to 3 company-operated restaurants along with 2 to 3 franchised restaurants for the full year. Additionally, we continue to make progress on our remodel efforts, completing 2 company-operated restaurant remodels in the quarter while franchisees completed 5. Our new asset design work is near completion, and we look forward to implementing it beginning with remodels in early 2020. Now on to our financial results. For the third quarter ended September 25, 2019, total revenue was $112.1 million as compared to $112.2 million in the third quarter of 2018. Company-operated restaurant revenue decreased slightly to $99.1 million compared to $100 million in the same period last year. The slight decrease in company-operated restaurant sales was driven by the sale of 11 company-operated restaurants to franchisees and the closure of 5 restaurants during and subsequent to the third quarter of 2018. This was partially offset by 1.6% growth in company-operated comparable restaurant sales, the contribution from the 6 new restaurants opened during and subsequent to the third quarter of 2018 and $500,000 related to an increase in revenue recognized from our loyalty point program. The increase in company-operated comparable restaurant sales was comprised of a 2.0% increase in average check partially offset by a 0.4% decrease in transactions. As Bernard noted, we were pleased with the progression of our sale trends during the quarter as well as our current fourth quarter momentum. Franchise revenue increased 9.1% in the third quarter to $7.3 million compared to $6.7 million in the prior year period. The increase was driven by a 0.6% increase in comparable restaurant…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Jake Bartlett with SunTrust.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

First, I just wanted to understand the performance in September and October and trying to figure out how much you think was attributed to the success of the $5 bundle or bowl that you're offering. And also, just remind us, what's different about that offer versus some of the $5 combos that you've had in the past and also had on the menu permanently in the past?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst

Sure. So I think we attribute the growing momentum we experienced in the quarter, both on the top line and more -- well, equally as important in transactions, due to, I'd say, 3 things. I think it was the strength of the fire-grilled combos promotion. It was the expansion of our delivery capabilities. So we added both Postmates and Uber Eats in the quarter in addition to our existing partner DoorDash. And then I would say the third is in operations improvement. So we're seeing significant improvement in customer compliments. And as I mentioned, our internal measurement of customer satisfaction, what we term our overall Blended Index, has been steadily increasing throughout the course of the year and is now at an all-time high. So I'd say it was the confluence of all 3 of those factors. Specifically addressing your question on the $5 combos, I think the main difference is, one, we added nachos to that lineup. So we had some success with nachos as an LTO in the past and saw a lot of take on that product. So we decided to do a $5 Fire-Grilled Combos version of it. And I think that was one of the big contributing factors. But I think it was also, frankly speaking, how we executed it both with our advertising and in our restaurants.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And then in terms of the sale of the stores in Dallas, what is the state of the company-owned stores in Houston? I'm wondering whether that's something that you're also pursuing. And then just philosophically, as you look at the company versus the franchise mix, do you see yourself moving more towards the franchise mix and shedding some of the -- maybe the weaker-performing markets?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst

Well, in the case of Dallas, we had an opportunity there to sell our stores to a franchisee who already had a significant presence in that market. So it made all the sense for us to transfer ownership under a strong local partner. He's based out of that part of the world. He knows that local market really well. We all know that Texas is a unique animal. So we thought we'd be better served putting it under local ownership. The good news, whether it be Dallas or whether it be Houston, is that those stores have been steadily improving in their performance. In the case of Houston, we're still committed to that market, and that market continues to show progress. But as we've mentioned, just as a general statement, we're looking at franchisee transference or, I should say, the sale of company markets to franchisees opportunistically. And as things present themselves that make sense, we'll consider them.

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Yes. And Jake, the only thing I'd add on top of that is I don't see us having a major shift in the company franchise mix. And as Bernard highlighted, it will be opportunistic. But I wouldn't expect to go through a big selling program of selling company restaurants.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Got it. And then last question. It looks like you're making some progress here on the same-store sales improvements and getting some traction there. When do you think that starts to translate into new unit growth? And I know you've talked in the past about wanting to open a new market or two in 2020. Where do you stand in your progress towards that goal?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst

Yes. So we're still finalizing those two markets, 1 or 2 markets as we speak. And we have been working assiduously on our restaurant design of the future, which we, day by day, get more increasingly excited about, not only because of the design aesthetic that's going to present to the world through the lens of our new brand, but also, in keeping with our third strategic pillar of the transformation agenda, we have massively simplified the back-of-house in a way that we think is going to make us more competitive than we've ever been. So right now, we are on track to open at least one new market next year but don't have much more I can share with you at this point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Tarantino with Robert W. Baird.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Just first question on delivery. I think, Bernard, you mentioned that you've curated a special menu for that to make it, I guess, a little bit closer margin to what your in-restaurant transactions are. Could you maybe explain how that works and whether there is a difference there? And then secondly, if you could comment on whether you think the transactions you're seeing there are incremental or not, that would be helpful. And then I have a couple of follow-ups.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Sure. So we have -- we call, internally termed, the bifurcated delivery pricing strategy. So if you're a customer and you go through our El Pollo Loco website or through our mobile app, we're going to offer you the full entire El Pollo Loco menu at regular price. And then whatever delivery fees get attached to that, we pass on to the customer, so we retain 100% margin on those sales. If someone orders through 1 of 3 delivery marketplaces of which we're currently part of, and we'll add Grubhub for a fourth in December, then we have a more curated menu, a smaller menu with a heavy emphasis on combos, family meals and actually exclusive configurations because we add chips and salsa to a lot of those menu items that are not -- cannot be found on elpolloloco.com or through our mobile app. And we charge a price premium through those third-party marketplaces. Let's call it -- I'm going to include our franchisees here, although we don't have any influence over their pricing, but anywhere from, let's call it, 13% to 15% markup on those products to mitigate some of the margin loss given that we have to pay a commission rate to those third-party delivery marketplace providers.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

And what's been the customer feedback? Or do you have the ability to get feedback as you look at sort of the execution and the overall kind of value proposition to the customer? Anything you can offer on that front?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Yes. I mean the only thing I could really -- just from a kind of more of an empirical point of view, I think if you take a look at just our delivery growth in terms of sales mix, it's largely come in this quarter from our delivery marketplace providers. So we don't see resistance necessarily from the more elevated pricing that we're charging in those channels. I think consumers there are looking to pay for convenience, first and foremost. And so we're kind of enthusiastic and excited about the progress we're making with these providers.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Great. And then, Larry, is there a P&L benefit that you expect to see from the sale of the Dallas restaurants?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Yes, we do. I think in the past, I've highlighted the margin, I'll call it, drain that -- the other markets I provided. So we will see a margin benefit from the sale of the Dallas restaurants and should see an EBITDA benefit from the Dallas restaurants as we go into next year.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

And would you help us in terms of quantifying that?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

The margin benefit should be somewhere around 50 basis points.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

Great. And then on next year, I might have missed this, but I think you mentioned that you're going to enter at least one new market. Do you have a current development plan in terms of company-operated and franchise growth that you're willing to share at this point?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst · Robert W. Baird.

We are still working through that, David. Right now, what I would say is I would expect it to be in the 10 to 15 total restaurant range for next year and probably split roughly half and half.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from the line of Matthew DiFrisco from Guggenheim Securities.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

Just wanted to also -- can you just specify, did you say there were 3 Dallas stores that were transferring over to make the entire market franchise?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Five.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

Five, okay. And are any of those going to not have a royalty? Or right away, will they have a royalty in there? Is there any sort of deal as far as transferring them where there might be some abatements initially?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Yes. So we have -- basically, in the initial, I think, couple of years, there will be no royalty on those restaurants.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

But it'll still be earnings accretive in -- and that the proceeds are going to be -- are you getting proceeds to offset or buy back stock or just carry the balance? I'm trying to think of how this is to a P&L basis -- aside from the 50 basis point improvement to the margin, you're selling dollars. What are you getting in return to offset that as far as the lost EBITDA contribution?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

No. We'll get a positive EBITDA contribution, Matt.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

They were losing money?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Yes.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

Got it. Okay. So you removed the depreciation. And you're going to gain...

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Well, no, there was no depreciation because the restaurants have been fully impaired. But there will be an EBITDA/cash flow positive benefit or EBITDA benefit from the sale of those restaurants.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

Excellent. And then just as far as some of the guidance here, the G&A guidance of 8.2 -- 8.1% to 8.3% as a percent of sales, I'm assuming you're doing that off of your gross sales, so the number of $112 million in this quarter, so inclusive of franchise ad revenue?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Yes. That's the way we're reporting that, yes.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

And then you back out the legal, which was only in the first quarter of $2.2 million?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Only in the first quarter of $2.2 million. Well, I do -- we back out the legal expenses associated with the securities litigation.

Matthew DiFrisco

Analyst

What's the total year-to-date of that?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Give me a second. It's at $2.8 million.

Operator

Operator

We do have a follow-up question from the line of Jake Bartlett.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

This is one, I think, I typically ask every quarter, but I just want to ask what the systemwide sales were for the quarter.

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

$227,950,000, so $227.95 million.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Great. And then lastly, you guys have a unique perspective there in California and specifically Southern California. Wondering, any comments you can make on the wildfires that are going on and any impact to your stores positive or negative?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst

Yes. So naturally, we're all watching it very, very carefully. So far, the impact has been minimal. It has -- we've had a little bit of power outage here or there in a few stores. The number has been extremely small at this point. It's not to say that if the situation gets bigger or wider, it won't be cause for greater concern. But at least at this juncture, the impact of that has been pretty minimal.

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Yes. And just to add a little more color, I mean really, we've only seen really a minimal number of actual closures, company and franchise. And as we're watching our comp sales, we're really not seeing any impact on comp sales at this point in time.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Great. And then actually, lastly, one more. Bernard, you made the comment that you're lapping -- you had positive -- your same-store sales were strong in September, but you're lapping 2% -- or sorry, 3%. I want to make sure that was 3% in traffic overall. I want to make sure you're not referring just to traffic. But that's one question. And looking at the fourth quarter of last year, there was a meaningful acceleration in the comps. Larry, can you give us an idea of how the monthly progression of same-store sales went last year? I know that there was, I think, momentum kind of heading into the fourth quarter, but it looks like it actually built beyond that. So I just want to confirm.

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

First of all, I mean your first question regarding the -- I think, the 3% comparison in September. That was actually the comp, not just transaction.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Great, yes.

Laurance Roberts

Analyst

Okay. And then if you look at last year's movement in comps, yes, I mean you saw an acceleration really in November and December. So last year, October and September are roughly in line, and then you saw an acceleration November and December.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Barish with Jefferies.

Andrew Barish

Analyst · Jefferies.

A couple of just follow-ups and then some new stuff. On the new Postmates and Uber Eats, what -- when in September did that roll? Was it for most of the month?

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes, for most of the month. We started late August, and then it kind of was in full effect starting in September.

Andrew Barish

Analyst · Jefferies.

Okay. And then on the mix in the quarter, it seems like you're running mid- to high 3s on pricing, so it implies the mix down a couple of points. Can you just give us what was kind of moving there? With delivery picking up, I imagine that carries certainly a higher ticket. But $5 combo is obviously an offset maybe.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes. I'll let Larry go into a little bit more detail on it. But I think the thing that we were encouraged by, as I mentioned before, was that the transactions through the quarter got steadily stronger. And some of the -- so while that was improving and getting steadily stronger, our check was something that we were watching carefully because for the last quarter or 2, we think that there's been a little bit of a macroeconomic California effect with the consumer where they're being careful about how they're spending their dollars. So we saw that within the quarter. We're not quite sure if it's going to sustain itself. We think it's something that's a little bit more short-term than longer-term. But Larry, do you want to talk a little bit more about that?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes. Just adding on to what Bernard was highlighting, I mean there were a couple of other key factors. One was we did have a little higher discounting in the quarter. The other one was our LTO at the beginning of the quarter was quesadillas, which were at a lower price point. At least we have one quesadilla at a lower price point versus prior year. So that was also a factor. And as Bernard highlighted, we think we're seeing what I would call some customer check management as a -- probably as a result of higher gas prices, I think, here in California. So the real positive is we're getting more transaction. We're getting more people into the restaurant. But I think we are seeing a little pullback from customers in terms of what they're spending in restaurants.

Andrew Barish

Analyst · Jefferies.

Helpful. And then finally, just on labor, certainly, a lot better than it looked in the first half of the year. So the improvement in comps, I'm sure, is some of that. But was there anything else specific to the quarter other than the operational improvements the teams have been putting in place? And then dovetailing into the new cooking procedures, does that actually create some opportunity for labor efficiency or productivity? Or is it really focused on product quality and ease of execution?

Laurance Roberts

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes. So let me -- I'll start with the end of that question first. The new cooking procedures, we're looking at as making easier to execute in the restaurants. We don't have plans to pull any labor out as a result of that. It's really making it a lot easier for our cooks to execute. And what we're seeing also is better product quality because of the easier procedures. So that's the real driver on that. In terms of on the labor line, yes, nothing really unique. I mean we continue to see the 6% to 6.5% labor inflation that we talked about all year, the wage inflation. The one thing we did see was probably a little better efficiencies in the third quarter on labor, which helped. But going into the fourth quarter, we'll continue to see that labor inflation. We've also -- just so to manage expectations a little bit, we're also making some investments in terms of new processes we're rolling out to the restaurants. I mean we've talked about that earlier in the call. So that will involve training costs. So that will be some incremental labor costs during the quarter, which will have some impact on labor as a percent of sales and our margins. So I expect to see a little bit or a little more cost on labor line in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. And the other thing I'd highlight also, in the fourth quarter, you generally have lower AUVs versus the third quarter. So again, you may see a little bit more margin impact on the labor line in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back to Mr. Acoca for closing remarks.

Bernard Acoca

Analyst

Well, I want to thank everyone for joining us today, and I want to wish everyone a very happy holiday with their families. And we look forward to talking to all of you soon. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.