Huntley Garriott
Analyst · KBW
Thanks, BJ. I'm going to wrap up today by focusing on 3 questions. The first is how our small businesses are doing overall. The second is what's the opportunity for us at Live Oak to serve them. And then third, what are we doing to address that? We get a lot of questions about the overall health of small business given where we sit. And 3 years ago, we started a quarterly survey of small businesses, along with Barlow Associates. It's one of the preeminent research firms serving small businesses. And we wanted to share a bit of information from their most recent survey to give you a sense of how small businesses are feeling, but also it indicates some of the opportunities that we have to serve them. People say that we're at the tip of the spear as it relates to small business in America. And if that's the case, so far, small businesses are waging a pretty impressive battle. So on Page 23, you can see the overall sentiment certainly has deteriorated, which shouldn't come as any surprise. Although interestingly, it looks as if views on the economy may have bottomed out recently, although they still remain decidedly negative. Expectations of the financial performance of companies have also deteriorated but remain more positive than views of the overall economy. It's clear that the majority of small businesses expect a slowdown and are positioning themselves for a weakening economy. And that's still in contrast, as Chip and B.J. referenced, with our current credit performance, which remains outstanding. Looking at the right-hand side of this page, we see that only 20% of the surveyed small businesses applied for credit in the past year. And if you drill down a layer deeper into that data, you'll see that the majority of those that applied apply for working capital, not the growth capital that we typically provide. So the opportunity for us to serve small businesses with working capital products and deposits can dramatically expand our addressable market. You've likely heard the term 'silver tsunami' to reference the generational shift among small business owners occurring in the U.S. On the bottom right, you can see that almost 1/3 of small business owners expect to transition ownership of their company in the next 5 years. These change of control transactions are right in our wheelhouse, both for lending, but also an opportunity to change primary banking relationships. And while the uncertainty in the economy and volatility in the market has put some of these transactions on hold, we believe the overall macro trend of small business acquisitions will continue to provide us significant opportunities. Anecdotally, across our portfolio, we hear a consistent set of concerns, labor markets, inflation, supply chain being at the top of the list. And while we see overall sentiment more cautiously, we also witness every day the resiliency and entrepreneurial spirit of our small business owners as they navigate this cycle. So what's the opportunity for us? Turning to Page 24. The SBA data says there's 32 million small businesses in the U.S. But we know the majority of these are very small solopreneur businesses. We look at our primary market as the roughly 6 million small businesses in the U.S. that have between 200 and 500 employees, which generate, on average, $100,000 to $10 million of revenue each. Currently, across our small business lending, our savings and our new checking businesses, we serve about 17,000 small business customers. So you can see our market share is pretty tiny. And if you add to that, very few of our customers, who we actually have multiple products with, are repeat customers. And you can see that despite being pretty good at what we do, we still have a lot of runway to better serve small businesses and deepen these relationships. So what are we doing to address this? On Slide 25, first and foremost, we continue to invest in our lending franchise. Over 15 years, we've built a small business lending platform that effectively marries great people and great technology, and we continue to work to improve that every day. You've seen over the last year, expense growth related to hiring, not only in new lenders but also in folks needed to support the process. And while we still will be opportunistic on new hires, we're in a really good place overall. And you can see the production numbers and our pipelines reflect that. You'll also see that head count and expense growth, as BJ mentioned, are going to slow down into next year. We're also in the process of finalizing the migration to a new loan origination platform, still leveraging Salesforce and nCino, but with some pretty high-powered enhancements that we've built in-house. The new platform is designed to further reduce application to funding cycle time, improve efficiency and deliver a best-in-class portal for our customers and partners. We're already observing some enhancements in key areas, and we're excited about what we can accomplish on modern architecture. The timing of this couldn't be better as it allows us to better react to potential changes in the SBA programs that are being contemplated. Turning to the deposit side. We're particularly excited about the success we've had generating business savings in CDs. With over 10,000 customers now and over $1.8 billion in deposits, it's becoming an increasingly important part of our funding at almost 30% of our total deposits, but also a critical component of our customer acquisition strategy. As we introduce more products and services, we have a growing base of customers to better serve. So the wait is finally over. We officially have a checking account in the market. This product offers balance protection, improved account funding, next-gen bill pay and QuickBooks integration among other features. And our marketing efforts have really just started, but we're seeing, on average, 40 to 50 new accounts a day, and we currently sit at over 1,300 accounts and about $10 million in balances. So we're off to a good start. While this product serves a smaller end of the small business market, our next milestone is to deliver a treasury management product, which we expect in Q1, that will allow us to serve the upper end of our customer base as well. We're also excited about the start of our first specialty deposit vertical, serving 1031 exchanges, and we ended the quarter with about $60 million in checking balances, and we're actually close to $100 million already as we move into the fourth quarter. So a couple of big wins on the technology front, but we're certainly not slowing down, bringing our entire platform together on modern architecture anchored by our modern Finxact core remains our top priority. We believe that will open up incredible opportunities for us in areas like embedded banking, customer insights and payments. In the short term, we'll continue to deliver treasury management capabilities, working capital solutions and our initial embedded banking partnerships. So where does that leave us. On page 26, I think BJ summed this up well. Our lending platform is solid. Credit quality is excellent, although we remain vigilant and are certainly not declaring victory. Secondary markets are strong enough to support our balance sheet. We remain a premier destination to work in both banking and in financial technology. Deposit businesses are starting to yield tangible results, and we remain confident in our technology strategy, both on the investing and the software development front as we continue to build the small business bank in the future. So with that, let's move to questions.