Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 26, 2026
$266.38
+2.69%
Same-Day
+1.38%
1 Week
+7.32%
1 Month
+26.29%
vs S&P
+34.61%
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead.
Randy Bhatia
Operator
Thanks, Operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast of today's call are available at cheniere.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in the appendix of the slide presentation. As part of our discussion of Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P., or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. The call agenda is shown on Slide 3. Jack A. Fusco, Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s President and CEO, will begin with operating and financial highlights as well as Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s growth outlook. Anatol Feygin, our Chief Commercial Officer, will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach Davis, our CFO, will review our financial results, 2026 guidance, and long-term capital allocation plan. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I will now turn the call over to Jack A. Fusco, President and CEO.
Jack A. Fusco
Analyst
Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our results from the fourth quarter and the full year 2025 and we look forward to 2026. Before we dive into the results and outlook, I would like to take a moment to acknowledge a significant occasion that occurred here at Cheniere Energy, Inc. earlier this week. On Tuesday, we celebrated the tenth anniversary of our first export cargo, a milestone achievement that not only ushered in a new era of prosperity for Cheniere Energy, Inc., but for the U.S. and global energy markets as well. The significance of that first cargo cannot be overstated. In fact, earlier this week, I participated in the Transatlantic Gas Security Summit in Washington, D.C., with Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Secretary Doug Burgum, as well as leaders and ministers from over a dozen countries where the anniversary of our first cargo was commemorated. Getting to the point of that cargo being exported was a Herculean effort. Cheniere Energy, Inc. charted an unprecedented path in order to realize our vision. In doing so, we resolved a myriad of project development challenges, enabling the energy abundance and affordability we enjoy here in America to reach international markets, while rewriting the LNG rule book on long-term contracting by leveraging the vast natural gas resource and in-place energy infrastructure of the United States. Now, ten years and nearly 5,000 cargoes later, we have cemented our position as the industry's gold standard. We lead the U.S. LNG industry thanks first and foremost to the Cheniere Energy, Inc. workforce and their steadfast commitment to safety and excellence, which they demonstrate every single day. We also would not be here today without the unwavering support of our over three dozen long-term customers, construction partner Bechtel, our community…
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into the LNG market update, first some comments about the SPA we announced this morning with our longtime customer CPC. It is not only a core long-term transaction in its own right, but also an all-but-perfect summation of our strategy and value proposition. Like most of the transactions we have executed in this cycle, it is with a repeat customer. Reliable LNG supply is absolutely critical to Taiwan’s rapidly growing economy, and we take pride that CPC put its trust in our ability to perform. It is approximately a 1,200,000-ton contract that is yet another transaction we have executed that extends beyond the middle of this century. We look forward to starting this incremental tranche later this year with our usual unwavering commitment to our multi-decade partner, CPC. It features a number of bespoke components, as buyers continue to value Cheniere Energy, Inc.’s customer-focused tailored solutions. All of the things that set us apart from the competition—safety, operational excellence, customer-first approach, and a stellar execution track record chief among them—have and will continue to contribute meaningfully to our commercial approach and ability to sign contracts like this one that support our disciplined growth plans. Together with constructive LNG market fundamentals supporting a clear need for more capacity, we will continue to leverage our advantages in the market to accretively commercialize our brownfield growth projects and target market-leading multi-decade returns to shareholders. Now please turn to Slide 8. As you can see from the chart on the left, 2025 was another year of generally elevated and volatile spot prices. A key driver supporting the overall elevated prices relative to historical norms was the strong pull on LNG cargoes from Europe as demand rose approximately 27% year over year in the fourth quarter…
Zach Davis
Analyst
Thanks, Anatol. Good morning, everyone. I am pleased to be here today to discuss our financial results and plans going forward. Turn to Slide 11. For the fourth quarter and full year 2025, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was approximately $2,000,000,000 and $6,900,000,000, and distributable cash flow was approximately $1,500,000,000 and $5,300,000,000 respectively. We generated net income of approximately $2,300,000,000. EBITDA came in at the high end of the guidance range, and DCF ended up above the high end of the range despite being close to fully sold out on our open capacity as of the last call. This outperformance can be attributed to further optimization locked in during the fourth quarter, higher lifting margin due to higher year-end Henry Hub pricing, and certain end-of-year cargoes being delivered in 2025 instead of early 2026. Compared to 2024, our 2025 results reflect higher total volumes of LNG produced across our platform, primarily as a result of the substantial completion of Trains 1 through 4 at CCL Stage 3, which resulted in almost doubling our spot capacity year over year from approximately 2 to approximately 4,000,000 tons that we were able to proactively lock in for 2025 at similar levels as the year prior, at over $8 per MMBtu margins on average. The year also benefited from higher Henry Hub pricing and more volume supporting lifting margin, and greater optimization activities upstream and downstream of the sites compared to 2024. These increases were partially offset by higher O&M costs primarily related to the substantial completion of the initial midscale trains at Stage 3 and the major maintenance turnaround at SPL during the year. While we have many significant achievements to highlight from 2025, I am particularly proud of the execution of our long-term capital allocation objectives and the early completion of our 2020 Vision…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. Again, press star 1 to ask a question. The first question will come from Jeremy Bryan Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet
Analyst
Thanks for all the detail today in the slides. Anatol, I want to turn to Slide 9 and the big uptick you see in Asia there. Could you talk a bit more about how demand across Asia from 2026 through 2030 might be influencing the tone of commercial conversations as you look to lock in more supply agreements? And separately, we have seen some weather activity here locally and force majeure from some gas producers, predominantly in the Haynesville. Did that have any impact on Cheniere Energy, Inc.?
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
Sure, Jeremy. Good morning, and thank you. Look, we have always been of the view that moderate prices are good for this industry. As we have said over the last few years, one of the things that we expect to change as this wave of supply moves through the market is that the world will recalibrate its outlook on 2040 and that 700,000,000-ton outlook. But even with the 700,000,000-ton outlook, we do expect—obviously—long-term contract economics have been much lower than spot prices over the last few years, and we think that continues to be appealing. Reliable, stable, very secure product is something that the world will need more of, and we think that our reliability and security of supply are very valuable. Even in the fourth quarter, the world signed over 17,000,000 tons of long-term contracts, primarily driven by Asia. So we are very, very constructive on what global LNG demand is going to look like over the coming decades, and we are proud to be part of that wave, and we will continue to find these core opportunities to work with customers that value our reliability and our security of supply.
Jack A. Fusco
Analyst
Hi, Jeremy. It’s Jack. On the weather-related events, first and foremost, I was really pleased with the way our winter emergency preparedness at the facilities and operating teams were able to position ourselves and take care of the facilities to make sure that there was no harm to either our employees or to any of the equipment. They once again far exceeded storm firm. There was not anything material one way or the other. We saw price blowout and producers declaring force majeure; we were able to manage around that, operate in the system to help support some of the local areas, and it was a slight positive to optimization for the first month of the year.
Zach Davis
Analyst
Yeah, that’s right, Jeremy. Overall optimization for the first month of the year is baked into the guidance we just gave you for this year, but only for January. And just to be clear on how we think about optimization and guidance, if it is not officially locked in, it is not in the guidance. So as things accrue into February and for the rest of the quarter, we will give a clearer update on the May call. We have a ways to go to catch up to the amount of optimization EBITDA that was generated in 2025 for 2026, and that is part of the upside to the current guidance that we just provided.
Operator
Operator
The next question will come from Spiro Michael Dounis with Citi.
Spiro Michael Dounis
Analyst
Thanks, Operator. Good morning, team. First question just on commercial progress, a bit of a two-part question. As you noted, you have about 10,000,000 tons per annum signed up now to support the next set of growth projects. Does the next SPA that you sign from here start to underwrite the expansions beyond Phase 1 of Sabine and Corpus? And where would you say market LNG contracted margins are right now, especially in light of some competing projects being rationalized?
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
Yes, thanks, Spiro. I would say at this point, the first train of our super brownfield expansions is spoken for, and we have some modest amount of work to do on the second one. Obviously it depends on the economics and on the volume of the SPAs, but I think some single-digit millions of tons still need to be contracted to get us into the right position for Train 2 of the expansions, namely the large-scale train of Corpus that we filed for. In terms of market margins, you are absolutely right—it is a very competitive market. We had over 60,000,000 tons of FIDs in the U.S. last year. A number of those tons are still not contracted, so that is a dynamic we see in the market as well as those few projects that are still trying to get to the finish line. But as you also know, we do our utmost not to compete in that commoditized market of the 20-year CP product, and everything that you will see from us going forward is a relatively bespoke product that receives the premium that we think we deserve for our reliability.
Jack A. Fusco
Analyst
And, Spiro, this is Jack. In my conversations—and in my keynote address—having ten years of export capability here at Cheniere Energy, Inc., over 5,000 cargoes delivered, and never missing a foundation customer cargo means a lot to the JERAs and the CPCs and the POLINs—you can go on and on. Those building gas infrastructure now want to ensure that they get the LNG they need, and the deals that Anatol and the team have been able to execute reflect a premium customers are willing to pay to ensure that reliability.
Zach Davis
Analyst
And the fact that we are well over 95% contracted now, not just through 2030 but 2035, is why we were able to make the announcements we did today. The cash flow visibility is basically unparalleled, solidifying the run-rate guidance—if not better—comfortably within our range. So we are in a good place right now. If someone does not have that in their model—let’s say, the first phase of Sabine—and increased shareholder returns, that $10,000,000,000 of buyback better be finished a lot sooner. Message received.
Spiro Michael Dounis
Analyst
Alright, message received. Second question: Jack, you noted in your prepared remarks that you had already started to benefit on the nitrogen and inert gas side even in the fourth quarter. Last call you indicated a long-term plan to deal with excess nitrogen. Have you beaten that estimate? Would you say you have dealt with that issue, or is there still more to go?
Jack A. Fusco
Analyst
There is still more to go. It is a combination of issues, Spiro. The nitrogen is just an inert gas—it takes up space, so we have to evacuate it. What caused us a hiccup in the third quarter was variability in feed gas with heavies—C12 to be exact. The process engineers and operating folks put their heads together with suppliers and some oil companies, and we figured out different operating modes that are starting to pay dividends. We have adjusted operating modes, and we have been able to buy and inject certain solvents as fast and as much as possible. Some of the capital that Zach referenced is for longer-term resiliency of our facilities to make sure the front end can handle variability in gas coming from anywhere.
Zach Davis
Analyst
And I will credit the whole team that maybe we were at the lower end of production last year in our range, but still got to the high end of our financial guidance as we proactively sold open capacity. Stage 3 progressed really well and came online with four trains, and the optimization came through. This year, the production guidance that stayed intact since last call bakes in a healthy amount of planned maintenance for these resiliency efforts. If that does not take as long, we will update both production and financial guidance.
Operator
Operator
The next question will come from Theresa Chen with Barclays. Good morning.
Theresa Chen
Analyst
Great to see the continued commercial success in your second DTC SPA. Maybe putting a finer point on the economics of the commercialization process at this point, can you provide any quantitative color on your outlook for the production fees based on your recent success and ongoing commercialization—what would you say is the range at this point? And more broadly, going back to Anatol's comments and the earlier question about elasticity, what evidence of demand elasticity have you seen already in your commercial discussions for long-term contracts, taking into account the significant incremental liquefaction capacity set to enter the market through the end of the decade and beyond?
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
Yes, Theresa. As Zach and I have said for many quarters now, we are very comfortable with the $2.50 to $3.00 range, and we are really doing things above the midpoint of that range. But as we have said to you and others, I cannot tell you that if we needed to contract 20,000,000 tons of additional volumes to get to super brownfield economics and meet our investment parameters, we would be able to maintain that. So to your question and Spiro's, the “market economics” are not at that level; we would say they are below that level for U.S. product. It is our performance, reliability, and commercial engagement—our flawless performance and ability to continue to deliver day in and day out—that give us the ability to capture these premium contracts. On price elasticity, even in the rearview mirror, the LNG market has had periods where in the aggregate it has consumed about 600,000,000 tons. As you look at where price-elastic markets can land, the numbers are comfortably above what we have operating and under construction today. There is well over 1,200,000,000 tons of regas capacity, growing to 1,400 with what is under construction. Markets like Vietnam—obviously from a very small base—grew over 200%, and that market alone will likely be well north of 10,000,000 tons by early next decade. Asia should grow from the roughly 270,000,000-ton level, where it has been stuck due to high prices, to well over 400,000,000 tons as affordable supply—ratably affordable over years—stimulates investment. We remain sanguine, and as long as we keep contracting at those economics and underwriting disciplined expansion plans, we hope the market remains constructive and continues to grow. But we are quite immune from those dynamics given our contracted platform.
Theresa Chen
Analyst
That is very helpful. Thank you. Switching gears, as gas-fired power demand reaches new highs across the U.S., partly driven by growing data center electricity needs, there are concerns that rising LNG exports could exacerbate domestic affordability pressures. What is your view on this? Do you see these dynamics affecting Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s ability to permit and/or commercialize incremental capacity? And how do domestic affordability issues reconcile with LNG's importance as a strategic trade and geopolitical lever for the U.S.?
Jack A. Fusco
Analyst
I will start, then hand it to Anatol. Theresa, it takes us 18 months to two years to get a permit, our pipeline plans are filed with FERC and made public, and then it is another three to four years for construction. In all cases, we buy firm transportation—we have it to all five basins. We process 24/7 and provide stability in cash flow to producers and midstream companies that has never existed before in their lifetime, allowing them to grow significantly. When the first cargo left Sabine Pass in February 2016, U.S. gas production was around 67–68 Bcf/d. Today it is well over 110 Bcf/d, in part because they see the exports coming. Having been on the gas-to-power side most of my career, gas-to-power generally does not like buying firm transportation or paying forward for gas—they prefer interruptible supply at the cheapest price possible to price into real-time markets. That can help in the short term but is not helpful longer term for production growth. We are starting to see that whole paradigm on exports shift in Washington as we explain how the markets really work.
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
Three quick points. One, we do not think we compete for molecules with those incremental demand centers. By definition, they will try to build in places with trapped resource and limited infrastructure to access markets, whereas we rely on points of liquidity—quasi-religion for us as we supply our customers. Two, even the EIA says 2026–2027 will not see the same level as 2024 for gas-for-power, so we think the market may be disappointed by the rate at which gas demand into power grows. Three, for our product and our customers, NYMEX is a pass-through, and we do not expect tremendous competition in the Southwest Louisiana pool that is NYMEX for those molecules. We are optimistic the domestic resource is there to meet all needs, and we are careful about how we approach expansions; our current infrastructure is more than sufficient to avail us of the molecules that we need.
Operator
Operator
We will go to Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
Jean Ann Salisbury
Analyst
Hi. Good morning. In 2025, there was significant EPC CapEx escalation in LNG greenfield costs. Can you talk about the drivers of that and whether that has begun to moderate? And as a follow-up, is CapEx escalation impacting brownfield projects like yours as materially?
Jack A. Fusco
Analyst
Jean Ann, as you know, we FID’d Trains 8 and 9 and did so within our financial parameters that Zach laid out. We do see some escalation and are working through it with Bechtel. We have managed it by issuing limited notices to proceed on longer lead-time items. At this point, lead times worry me more than inflation. We also optimized our plan to get economies of scale and reduce dollars per ton for both SPL and CCL expansions. We asked for identical repeat trains—another SPL 6 for SPL 7, and another CCL 3 for CCL 4—which should help on all fronts.
Zach Davis
Analyst
And on the math, it is transparent—we file quarterly CapEx and PP&E. We basically have the lowest cost per ton, the best or highest SPAs, the lowest leverage, and the least amount of equity partners. We are well placed for the FIDs of Train 7 and Train 4. We are permitting more than that, but we see a path to hold to the standard by being as super brownfield as possible right now.
Jean Ann Salisbury
Analyst
Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Moving on to Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.
Michael Blum
Analyst
Thanks. In terms of your December FERC filing to increase CCL Stage 3 and midscale 8 and 9 by 5,000,000 tons, can you talk about the timing to achieve that expansion, and how to think about the use case for that incremental capacity?
Zach Davis
Analyst
Those filings reflect continued debottlenecking and engineering of the site that we plan to take advantage of over time. That increment is to accommodate peak production at certain times of the year at Corpus. It folds into the broader story that we will likely FID a train at each site plus debottlenecking projects—that is how we get to 75,000,000 tons. Ideally, a first phase of a Train 4 at Corpus plus other items will make the economics crystal clear as accretive and within our parameters.
Michael Blum
Analyst
Got it. And on the new CPC contract you announced this morning, when do you expect it to kick in during 2026?
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
It starts midyear. Some of how we structure transactions includes flexibility we can take advantage of as we debottleneck. That is why we are a little cagey with the 1,200,000 tons—this is the number for the vast majority of the term, but it includes some flexibility starting mid-2026.
Michael Blum
Analyst
Understood. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.
Jason Gabelman
Analyst · TD Cowen.
Hello. Thanks for taking my question. You mentioned the ramp-up in Corpus Stage 3 is going very well, and it seems like those trains could come online earlier than contemplated in your volume guidance. How do you think about the upside to that volume guidance? And as a follow-up, on additional expansions beyond the very brownfield trains at Sabine and Corpus: Anatol, you mentioned roughly 20,000,000 tons’ worth of SPA opportunities. Do those support the higher margin guidance embedded in your economics, and do they support higher-cost trains beyond the initial brownfield opportunities?
Zach Davis
Analyst · TD Cowen.
Still early in the year, and note we did not update substantial completion dates of Trains 5 through 7 in guidance. We just achieved first LNG at Train 5 earlier this month. To put some math on it, if all three trains were a month early, at current margins, that is comfortably over $50,000,000 of incremental EBITDA over the year. We are already four-for-four, and it is looking like five-for-five of being early, but in February it is too soon to tell. We will update as trains come online through the year.
Anatol Feygin
Analyst · TD Cowen.
Jason, to clarify, if we had to do 20, we would not be able—at current “market” levels—to maintain the $2.50 to $3.00 standard. Market economics today are below $2.50. Our performance, reliability, and commercial engagement allow us to capture premium contracts and maintain brownfield economics to meet our investment parameters. Beyond that, it is a step-function change in CapEx per ton that today’s market economics do not support for meeting our parameters.
Zach Davis
Analyst · TD Cowen.
Jack’s whiteboard got us to 75,000,000 tons, and we will go from there.
Jason Gabelman
Analyst · TD Cowen.
Got it. Thanks.
Operator
Operator
Our last question will come from John McKay with Goldman Sachs.
John McKay
Analyst
Hey, thanks for the time. Back to the macros for you, Anatol. On Slide 9 you are showing strong growth for China through 2030. What price do you think underwrites that growth? And on coal-to-gas switching, what is your framework for magnitude?
Anatol Feygin
Analyst
Our guess—subject to hedging—is delivered LNG in the $8 to $9 range against $60–$65 Brent. China is massively fragmented and distributed—dozens of companies, multiple business models and competing fuels. The market is approaching 300,000,000 tons of regas capacity, mostly coastal, and over 200 GW of installed gas-fired capacity. At the right price, it can consume substantial volumes. In 2025, for a host of reasons, it behaved as a quintessential invisible hand and redirected cargoes to where most profitable. At high single-digit delivered prices, we think China comes roaring back like 2018–2019.
John McKay
Analyst
Super interesting. Last quick one for Zach, maybe Jack as well. Latest thoughts on the dividend—where that could grow over time, especially with the $30 per share framing—and how that plays relative to buybacks?
Zach Davis
Analyst
We are following through on what we have said: committed to growing the dividend by about 10% a year through the decade. Over time, we will get to something over a 20% payout ratio—different than most in midstream. Our shareholder return policy is on average 60% of DCF, with roughly 50% of that 60% as buybacks. This flexibility lets us self-fund equity for Stage 3, Trains 8–9, and first phases at both projects, while being opportunistic on buybacks, as we were the last couple of quarters and earlier this year. We like this approach; the 10% compounding gets powerful later this decade.
John McKay
Analyst
That is clear. Thank you. Appreciate the time.
Operator
Operator
And that does conclude the call.