Christopher Neczypor
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Ellen, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter results represent another quarter of strong execution and meaningful progress on our strategic priorities, delivering year-over-year adjusted operating income growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. The result this quarter was supported by favorable underwriting experience in our group and life businesses, continued growth in spread income in annuities and retirement plan services and another strong contribution from our alternative investments portfolio. Alongside strong earnings, free cash flow and capital generation continued to build, tracking in line with our expectations. Holding company liquidity, excluding prefunding for our December senior note maturity, ended the quarter above $800 million, reinforcing the financial flexibility we have to act on multiple fronts over the next few years. This morning, I will focus on 3 areas. First, I will walk through our consolidated and segment level performance for the first quarter. Second, I will touch on our investment portfolio. And third, I will provide an update on our capital position. Let's begin with a recap of the quarter. This morning, we reported first quarter adjusted operating income available to common stockholders of $326 million or $1.66 per diluted share. There were no significant items in the quarter, but there were 2 normalizing items. First, our alternative investments portfolio delivered an annualized return of 12.3% in the quarter or $129 million. On an after-tax basis, this amount was approximately $19 million, above our 10% annualized target or $0.10 per diluted share. And second, results in the first quarter included a onetime $7 million impact due to unfavorable tax-related items, reflecting a true-up of certain prior year tax positions on our variable annuity separate accounts. As a result, the annuities effective tax rate this quarter was approximately 200 basis points above recent levels. Ongoing impacts are minimal at approximately $1 million per quarter. Turning to net income for the quarter. We reported a net loss available to common stockholders of $211 million or $1.10 per diluted share. The difference between GAAP net income and adjusted operating income was driven primarily by the negative movement in market risk benefits amid lower equity markets in the quarter. Importantly, our hedge program, which explicitly targets capital, continued to perform in line with expectations. Now turning to our segment results, beginning with Group Protection. Group delivered another strong quarter, building on the momentum from 2025. First quarter operating income was $112 million, up 11% from $101 million in the prior year quarter, and the margin was 8%, a 60 basis point improvement. The year-over-year improvement was driven by the strength of our group life results, partially offset by continued normalization in disability. The group life loss ratio was roughly 67%, an improvement of more than 800 basis points from the first quarter of 2025. Group Life results remained strong this quarter, supported by favorable incidence and severity outcomes. While mortality results can vary from quarter-to-quarter, the result was consistent with the favorable trends we've observed in recent quarters and remains favorable relative to historical experience. Importantly, we continue to see the benefits of disciplined pricing actions, which have supported a more durable earnings profile in this business. The disability loss ratio was 73.4% compared to 70.1% in the prior year quarter. The elevated loss ratio was driven by 2 primary items. First, our paid family leave product experienced elevated incidence rates with the introduction of 2 newly effective states, consistent with our continued footprint expansion as more states adopt these programs. This is an expected occurrence for new states, and we anticipate it will moderate as we move through the year. Second, within LTD, we experienced unfavorable resolution severity this quarter. As we discussed in the back half of last year, disability results are normalizing from the record low levels we experienced over the last 2 years, including some moderation in the favorable claims dynamics that supported those results. Even with this normalization, claims management outcomes remain solid and the underlying fundamentals continue to be strong and in line with our expectations. As we look ahead, risk results have historically improved from the first to the second quarter, and we expect that seasonal pattern to repeat this year. As a reminder, however, our second quarter results in 2025 included approximately $15 million associated with the annual experience refund tied to one state's paid family leave program. As we communicated last year, we have transitioned to accruing this refund on a quarterly basis throughout the year, mitigating the onetime impact experienced in prior years. Overall, group's first quarter results continue to reflect the strong progress in our strategy to expand this business into a larger and more profitable part of our enterprise. Now turning to Annuities. Annuities reported first quarter operating income of $275 million compared to $290 million in the prior year quarter. Given a few moving pieces this quarter, let's walk through the result on a sequential basis from the fourth quarter reported earnings of $311 million. As a reminder, fourth quarter results included approximately $8 million of favorable payout annuity mortality experience that we noted at the time. Excluding that, underlying earnings in the fourth quarter were closer to $303 million. From that level, a few items drove the sequential change to $275 million. First, as we discussed on last quarter's call, beginning in the first quarter and continuing on a go-forward basis, we reallocated net interest income earned on collateral posted in connection with our index credit hedging strategies from annuities operating income to nonoperating income. As our RILA business has grown, so have the associated collateral balances, making the related net interest income more meaningful. Moving this income to nonoperating income provides a cleaner view of underlying annuities operating performance. Relative to the fourth quarter, this reallocation reduced reported annuities operating income by approximately $10 million in the first quarter with no change to the underlying economics or free cash flow. Second, as I discussed earlier, results in the first quarter included a onetime $7 million impact due to unfavorable tax-related items, reflecting a true-up of certain prior year tax positions on our variable annuity separate accounts. The remainder of the sequential change relative to the fourth quarter reflects 2 fewer fee days, which drove approximately $10 million of additional pressure and continued traditional variable annuity outflows, partially offset by continued growth in spread income. Stepping back to a year-over-year view, when normalizing for the NII reallocation and the unfavorable tax-related items in the first quarter of this year, Annuities underlying earnings would have modestly improved relative to the first quarter of 2025. The improvement reflects continued growth in spread income and the benefit of higher equity markets, partially offset by continued traditional variable annuity outflows and higher expenses associated with the full retention of our fixed annuity flows. Account balances net of reinsurance ended the quarter at $169 billion, 7% above the prior year period, supported by 15% growth in RILA balances and 24% growth in fixed annuity balances. Spread-based products now represent 31% of total annuity account balances net of reinsurance, up from 28% a year ago. On a sequential basis, however, ending account balances were down approximately 4% from the fourth quarter, driven by the equity market decline in the period and continued variable annuity outflows. We would expect this lower starting balance to be a headwind to fee income beginning in the second quarter. That said, equity markets have recovered meaningfully through the first several weeks of the quarter. And if these levels are sustained, we would expect a reversal of that pressure. Turning to net flows. Total net outflows for the quarter were approximately $2.2 billion, an increase from the prior year quarter, reflecting higher traditional variable annuity outflows, partially offset by continued positive net flows in spread-based products. Traditional variable annuity net outflows for the quarter were approximately $2.6 billion. While outflows increased relative to the prior year quarter, the outflow rate has remained relatively consistent over the past year with the increase in outflow volume reflecting growth in our underlying account balances driven by favorable equity markets over the last year. Across spread-based products, both fixed annuities and RILA continued to generate positive net flows in the quarter. Fixed annuity net inflows were approximately $100 million and RILA net inflows were approximately $285 million as continued strong sales were partially offset by higher surrenders from earlier vintages exiting their surrender charge periods. As we have noted previously, we expect RILA net flows to moderate relative to recent years as additional vintages move out of their surrender charge periods with overall account balance dependent on overall sales. As we look to the second quarter, we anticipate a sequential tailwind from the normalization of the unfavorable tax-related items alongside the benefit of an additional fee day and continued growth in spread income. Overall, the fundamentals of the business remain solid. Our continued emphasis on diversifying the product mix towards spread-based products, together with the disciplined risk and hedging framework we have built around the business, positions annuities to remain a steady contributor to earnings and free cash flow over the long term. Now turning to Retirement Plan Services. Retirement Plan Services delivered a strong quarter with operating income of $43 million, up 26% from $34 million in the prior year quarter. The improvement was driven by continued spread expansion alongside the benefit of higher equity markets supporting average account balances. Base spreads were 116 basis points, up 13 basis points from 103 basis points in the prior year quarter. The expansion is driven by deploying new money at rates above our existing portfolio yield, along with targeted crediting rate actions taken at the start of the year. Average account balances grew approximately 10% year-over-year to $125 billion, supported by equity market performance over the past 12 months. Net outflows for the quarter were approximately $200 million, a meaningful improvement from the prior year quarter. As we look to the second quarter, however, we expect net outflows to be elevated in the range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, driven by a small number of known plan terminations, the majority of which did not meet our profitability targets. Consistent with the comments made throughout last year, we are continuing to be deliberate about the business we retain, focusing on the segments and customers that meet our targeted return thresholds even when that means accepting elevated outflows in a given quarter. The combination of disciplined pricing on retained business, the meaningful spread expansion delivered this quarter and the operating leverage from a higher quality business mix is what positions retirement plan services to deliver durable earnings growth over time. The first quarter result represents an early but tangible proof point that the actions we've been taking in this business are beginning to translate into improved earnings, and we expect to sustain a similar level of year-over-year growth as we look towards the second quarter. Lastly, turning to Life Insurance. Life delivered first quarter operating earnings of $41 million, our strongest first quarter result in 5 years and a meaningful improvement from an operating loss of $16 million in the prior year quarter. The improvement was driven by higher alternative investment returns and the continued benefit of our captive consolidation, which represents an approximately $10 million year-over-year tailwind. As a reminder, we executed this consolidation in the fourth quarter of last year, so we will continue to see this year-over-year benefit in the second and third quarters of this year, after which the comparisons will normalize. Mortality this quarter was favorable to our expectations, driven primarily by continued favorable experience within our term business. The result is consistent with the improvement we have seen in recent quarters and with broader U.S. mortality trends, which have continued to move in a favorable direction. While quarterly mortality results will continue to vary, recent experience has been encouraging and remain supportive of the underlying trajectory of the business. Alternative investment returns were also strong, contributing approximately $19 million after tax above our 10% annualized target. Building on this progress, we are also beginning to see early evidence of the impact from the strategic repositioning of our new business franchise contributing to underlying earnings. While modest in the current earnings profile, the deliberate mix shift over recent years toward products with more favorable risk characteristics and attractive risk-adjusted returns will continue to emerge over time as the in-force grows in size. As we look to the second quarter, we expect a modest improvement in mortality as favorable seasonal trends from the first to second quarter are partly offset by the favorable experience in the first quarter. Additionally, given the elevated volatility we have seen across markets, alternative investment returns could experience some variability relative to our 10% annual guidance. As a reminder, the second quarter of 2025 also benefited from favorable mortality experience, which could create a less favorable year-over-year earnings comparison for the second quarter even as the underlying trajectory of the business continues to improve. Beyond near-term seasonality and as demonstrated by the past year of results, we remain focused on building the durable earnings power of this business through disciplined expense management, optimization of the investment portfolio and continued progress on our strategic repositioning toward products that generate more stable cash flows and attractive risk-adjusted returns. Turning briefly to expenses. First quarter G&A expenses, net of amounts capitalized, were $589 million, up modestly year-over-year and down sequentially from a seasonally high fourth quarter. The year-over-year increase reflects continued investments tied to specific business actions, including the ongoing modernization of our claims platform and Group Protection, which is intended to drive efficiency and a simpler experience for our customers as well as the financial impact of supporting the full retention of our fixed annuity flows and annuities. Expense discipline remains a strategic priority across the organization, and we see continued opportunity to drive efficiency as we advance our transformation with an ongoing focus on leveraging technology to improve productivity and ensuring our expense base is appropriately sized to support our strategic objectives. Now turning to investments. Our investment portfolio delivered solid results in the first quarter, reflecting our high-quality and well-diversified portfolio and continued execution of our strategic asset allocation initiatives. Portfolio credit quality remains strong with 97% of investments rated investment grade, while our below investment-grade exposure remains at historic lows. Credit performance for the quarter was in line with our expectations. Touching briefly on alternative investments. Our alternatives portfolio delivered another strong quarter with a return of 3.1% or approximately 12% annualized above our 10% annualized return target. While alternative investment returns have been at or above our target over recent quarters, the elevated volatility we have seen across markets could lead to some variability in our alternatives portfolio in the near term. While quarterly results can vary, the breadth and diversification of the portfolio give us confidence in its ability to achieve our return objectives over time. Lastly, I want to spend a moment on private credit, given the heightened focus on this area across the industry. Our approach across all asset classes is grounded in how we manage the general account, anchored in a robust strategic asset allocation framework that recognizes private assets as a natural fit for the long-duration illiquid nature of our liabilities. Investment-grade private placements, in particular, have been a long-standing core competency of our investment platform and a meaningful source of risk-adjusted yield that supports our liability profile. As you can see in our investor supplement on Slide 12, our private credit portfolios represent approximately 20% of our general account and are comprised of 3 categories: investment-grade private placements, private structured securities and direct lending. The vast majority of our exposure, approximately 15% of our general account or $19 billion sits in investment-grade private placements. This is a market we have invested in for decades, along with the majority of our long-tenured insurance peers. These are institutional investment-grade borrowers diversified across industry with sectors like utilities comprising a large portion of the exposure. Historically, the IG private placement market has delivered fewer rating migrations, lower defaults and better recoveries than their public comparables, supported by strong covenant protections and the deeper diligence that comes from having a direct relationship with the issuer. It's also worth noting that this market has been relatively stable in terms of growth over the last decade. At a smaller scale, we also hold approximately $4 billion or roughly 3.5% of our general account in private structured securities, which is largely an investment-grade strategy. This portfolio is A rated on average, has an average position size of $14 million and is represented by collateral such as equipment financing, solar financing and aircraft leasing. And while our portfolio is smaller than the industry in terms of allocation, we would expect this portfolio to grow over time given its duration profile, consistent with our strategic priority of growing our spread-based earnings and diversifying our annuity mix. The last and smallest allocation of the portfolio is direct lending, which represents less than 1.5% of our general account. This has been a surplus strategy, which over the last decade has delivered attractive net returns, though it has been a modest overall contributor to our earnings given the small allocation. The portfolio is highly diversified with more than 400 underlying loans, primarily managed by 4 large, well-tenured managers with an average position size of approximately $4 million. The weighted average life of the portfolio today is under 2 years, and we would expect this exposure to decrease over time, both in terms of absolute dollars and as a percentage of the general account, in line with the strategic priority of growing our spread-based businesses and thus allocating our risk appetite to assets more efficiently supporting our interest-sensitive liabilities. Stepping back, our portfolio across asset classes is the highest credit quality we've experienced in years. We maintain a robust asset allocation framework with rigorous stress testing and a measured approach toward diversified deployment of new money across asset classes, executed alongside our strategic partners and grounded in a consistent disciplined risk framework. We remain very comfortable with the portfolio. Turning now to capital, where we continue to operate from a position of strength. I would highlight 3 points. First, our estimated RBC ratio remains well above our 400% target and the 20 percentage point buffer we built on top of that target, now the eighth consecutive quarter that we've ended above the 420% target buffer level. Second, our leverage ratio improved further during the quarter to 25%, which is now at our long-term target. We've made meaningful progress on this front since the end of 2023, and the lower leverage ratio reinforces the financial flexibility we have built across the enterprise. Third, holding company liquidity ended the quarter at approximately $1.2 billion, an increase of approximately $150 million from year-end. This includes $400 million of prefunding for our senior notes maturing in December of this year. So net of prefunding, holding company liquidity is $805 million, well above our historical operating range. The continued build in holding company liquidity in part reflects the growing dividend capacity from our operating subsidiaries and provides the flexibility to support our broader capital priorities. Before I conclude, I want to briefly touch on the macro environment. While uncertainty remains with elevated volatility persisting across markets, the work we have done over the past several years to fortify the balance sheet, diversify our sources of earnings and deepen our risk framework leaves Lincoln well positioned to perform through it. In closing, our first quarter results reflect another period of consistent execution and meaningful progress on our strategic priorities. We delivered the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year adjusted operating income growth with continued progress across our underwriting businesses, ongoing spread expansion and another quarter of free cash flow and capital generation tracking in line with our expectations. The path forward will not always be linear and mortality experience and market conditions will continue to create some variability from quarter-to-quarter, but the trajectory of the business is clear, and we remain focused on disciplined execution, free cash flow generation and the creation of long-term shareholder value. With that, let me turn the call back over to the operator.