Matt Katz
Analyst · Long Meadow Investors.
Jon, so if you look at the ODR revenue range that Jayme provided earlier of $150 million to $170 million, it basically implies a growth rate a little bit north of 30% relative to last year's number. This year, we view that as being an organic opportunity. If we get an M&A deal done this year, that would obviously be supplemental and incremental to that. But as that number starts to approach $150 million, $160 million, $170 million, it will become just a law of big numbers, right? It will become more challenging to continue to grow that business in the mid to high teens on an organic basis. And so I think, M&A in particular for ODR will be important to do, if we want to continue to grow that segment at those kinds of growth rates. The market is reasonably supportive right now from an M&A point of view. As I mentioned, there are some sort of weaker dynamics between COVID in the rearview mirror, capital gains, tax increases looking forward. And all of that will get sorted out here hopefully before too long and certainly this year. But I think the market opportunity for us in M&A over the next couple of years will offer up certainly enough volume to hopefully see two to three deals a year over the next couple of years at least and to reiterate your comments before about needing to maintain discipline and thoughtfulness, strategically and financially. But if I just look at the number of opportunities in the market, and think about how many of them have been on spec for us, there's a strategy there. There's enough volume among that universe that I think we can act and there's enough there that this isn't a one every other year or one every couple of years type of approach. We're seeing some things that are interesting. And again, we want to be measured in terms of how we do it. But the limiting factor won't be our inability to find businesses that are on target. It will be our ability to integrate them thoughtfully, be disciplined strategically and make sure that we're carefully managing the balance sheet as a result. So, I think, once we get momentum behind the effort, hopefully doing a couple every 12 months is a realistic objective. And as we said before, I think these are deals that at least in the near term are probably $50 million to $100 million of revenue and might have $3 million to $5 million, $3 million to $6 million of normalized EBITDA. And a decent portion of that is going to be ODR like and some of that will be more GCR like, but it will be new Limbach GCR, not old Limbach Construction. So, focused on good end markets, for good customers', good risk management practices, but a heavy dose of owner-direct work at the same time.