George LeMaitre
Analyst · Sidoti & Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead
Okay. So, I guess the recent 20% major adverse cardiovascular event reductions from GLPs, these headlines really got some attention on Wall Street, the elephant in the room in most of these medical device conference calls. I don’t really know how much J.J., George, and Dave are going to add to your folks understanding of this, but we’ll take a swing at it. And to start with before we get into this, of course, everyone here is rooting for ways to reduce cardiovascular disease. I’ll call it CAD and PAD just for brevity here, but our take is that any GLP impact on CAD or PAD revenues seems very uncertain and very far away. This 20% headline, which is I think what most people are taking away from this whole thing, it quickly turns into a 6% a year headline because those events, the 20% events, right? The major adverse cardiovascular events, we’ll call them MACE if you will. They took place over 3.3 years, so if it’s a 20% reduction, that’s pretty quickly turned into it. If you’re looking at the revenues of a company, you probably want to mark that down to 6%. And then you get that down to 4%, because one-third of those events are death by heart attack. And, of course, I hate to get technically or a little bit grim, but if we can manage to prevent death, it’s a great outcome for both the patients and then also a little oddly here. For the companies itself, devices for those patients who live longer. So roughly speaking, you can pretty quickly get the headline down to 4% per year. That’s assuming that the 42% – and that would be on the whole company if all 42% of adult obese Americans were on the drugs, were on the GLPs, and that’s 108 million people. So we keep coming back to its really unlikely that that many people are going to be on these drugs. But never say never, you don’t know, none of us on this call know in 10 years if this is going to be another statin or what it’s going to be. I think Abbott has come out on a couple of calls, saying, they think it’s about 12 million. Americans will be on these GLPs, and this sort of aligns with that. We’ve all heard this $80 billion in revenue for the analyst estimate, this peak revenue for the GLPs out there, and I don’t know, X years, no one’s putting a number on it, and so that would be 12 million being on it. Just for some comparisons, we can discuss this. Lipitor launched in 1997, so maybe the GLPs are another statin, right? Who knows? 40 million Americans are on statins, and I would say maybe the most important topic that you could think about is that even though the statins have been out there, and lots of us 59-year-old men are on statins, the need for CAD and PAD devices. This has only increased over this quarter of a century. So I think maybe this could be like that, but again, I don’t know, I don’t think any of us knows. The Jefferies analysts who are covering us have written some really nice pieces on this. They might be on this call. I don’t know if they are. They’ve published three – and I’ll close up here, I know this is a bit of a long ramble, Jim, and you probably didn’t ask for all this, but I’ll close up quickly here. They published three lengthy GLP reports in the month of October, and they go all around and they make good proofs everywhere. They come back to this mantra that they repeat over and over. GLPs are indeed – so I’m definitely stealing this from their report, GLPs are indeed a big drop in the bucket, but the bucket’s much bigger and the bucket wins. And I think what they’re trying to say is, cardiovascular disease is the number one cause of death in the world. It’s a very big bucket. It’s unlikely that it goes away because of this. In all of this, we didn’t talk about the fact that 40% of LeMaitre is O-U.S., and I think we all know that maybe this comes to the U.S. and Germany, but I don’t think it’s off in Japan and Thailand for a very, very long time. So I hope that’s a good swing at it, Jim. I’m happy to go in any direction you want with it on that, but that’s sort of what we got to.