Nick Zarcone
Analyst · Stifel. Your line is open.
Sure. I'll take that. It's been an interesting year. A year ago, at this time, April through June, vehicle miles traveled were down significantly in the United States and in Europe, the U.S. hit a low point really in the second, third week of April 2020 being down better part of 55% or so. If you look at really from kind of mid-to-late June through the November timeframe, VMT in the United States was down in and around anywhere from 9% to 12% kind of week-in, week-out. So, the last part of 2020 was down about 15%, really from -- through Thanksgiving into the end of the year. And then more recently, though, it's picked up. And in the last few weeks, VMT in the U.S. was down, say, 5%. And I'm talking about passenger cars. Truck miles has actually been positive really since last summer, but almost our revenue relates to passenger vehicles and that's what we focus on. As I mentioned in some of my prepared remarks, the European activity in mobility, again, in the first quarter started off really slow. It did rebound. And here in April, we're still below 2019 levels. But only down kind of low -- we believe low-single digits from a VMT perspective in Europe, but there are some variations country by country. So when you look at – the question behind your question I believe is when do we get back to 2019 kind of revenue levels and VMT levels, right? And we think in the United States, it's going to take us a bit longer. We think it's going to take until 2022 to get back to 2019 levels. In Europe, which is a little bit closer from a starting point perspective, we can see getting back to 2019 levels in the third or fourth quarter of this year. It all depends on how the vaccine gets rolled out and whether people truly get back on the road. And then the Specialty business has been running above 2019 levels for several quarters now, so that's a little bit different.