John S. Quinn
Analyst · Tony Cristello of BB&T Capital Markets
Thanks, Joe. Rob has already given you a breakdown of the major year-over-year revenue changes, so I'll just supplement what he said with a few other data points. For Q3, our total organic revenue growth was 11.1%, and we had an additional growth of 17.6% from acquisitions. Rob mentioned that the Q3 2011 organic growth for parts and services was 7.6%. Other revenue, which is where we record our scrap commodity sales, was up 53.3%. Approximately 32.5% of this was organic growth, as commodity prices were higher on a year-over-year basis and because we had higher volumes of scraps and cores. 20.7% of that increase was a result of acquisitions. In Q3 2011, revenue from our self-service business was $76 million or 9.7% of LKQ's total revenue. Approximately 30% of this revenue was part sales included in recycled and related products, and 70% scrap and core sales, which we included in other revenue. Our acquisition revenue growth was driven by the 15 deals we did in the last half of 2010 and the 7 deals we did in the first half of 2011 and the 10 deals we closed in Q3 this year. The Q3 impact on revenue from acquisitions was approximately $107 million. Gross margin for the third quarter of 2011 was 42.6%, which was down 40 basis points from the 43% in the same period 2010. In last quarter's call, I mentioned that we believe we've anniversaried the increase in the cost of salvage cars at auction. Scrap prices and the cost of product in the self-service line of business are still higher year-over-year, so that continues to put pressure on gross margin percentages. But we believe we’ve maintained gross margin dollars on that revenue. Year-over-year, in Q3, we're still seeing some impact on gross margin percentages from lower margin aluminum and furnace operations we acquired in Q3 last year. But we now hit the anniversary of that deal, so it will no longer be a factor, year-over-year. Did see a small negative impact of about 10 to 20 basis points from the AkzoNobel business. It’s probably worth taking a moment to add a few comments on the sequential gross margins, and gross margins increased slightly from 42.4% in Q2 2011 to 42.6% in Q3 2011. It's fair to say that quarter unfolded much like we described in the last earnings call. Cost of cars and scrap prices were relatively stable, so there were limited impacts from those 2 factors. We had an extra 2 months of AkzoNobel, so that was a slight drag on gross margins sequentially, but we're starting to see the impact of some of the pricing programs we've been discussing the last few quarters. We believe that these programs are part of the reason we saw our gross margins improve sequentially. We continue to see improvements in our facility and warehouse distribution and SG&A expenses. In total, these 3 items fell year-over-year and on a quarterly basis from 30.7% of revenue to 29.8%. I mentioned last quarter that this improvement is partly just a function of math because the higher commodity prices drive higher other revenue without corresponding increase in most of these costs. That also reflects the continued leverage of the business. Year-over-year, our distribution costs were up from 8.5% of revenue to 8.7% for the quarter, as the impact of higher fuel costs continue to impact that line item. Distribution costs did improve slightly sequentially, following the 9.1% of revenue in Q2 2011, to 8.7% of revenue in Q3, as we saw fuel prices retreat from their highs earlier this year. I mentioned on our last quarterly call that we expect to have some ongoing restructuring costs related to acquisitions. And on the October 4 call, I mentioned that we'd incur some cost during Q3 related to the Euro Car Parts acquisition. These costs were a total of $2.9 million for the quarter and are broken out on a separate line item in the income statement as restructuring and acquisition-related expenses. Operating income is $85.5 million for Q3 2011 compared to $65.2 million in Q3 last year, an improvement of $20.3 million or 31%. Net interest expense of $4.8 million was $2.3 million favorable to Q3 last year. This improvement is partly -- excuse me, is primarily due to lower interest rates being paid as a result of our new credit facility and lower swap costs, partially offset by higher borrowing levels. Our effective borrowing rate was 3.17% in Q3 2011, compared to 4.92% in Q3 2010. Effective tax rate was 38.7%. On a reported basis, diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.33 in Q3 2011 compared to $0.25 in 2010. The impact on EPS of the restructuring cost and the cost we wrote off in conjunction with the ECP acquisition was approximately $0.01 after-tax. Excluding these 2 items, EPS from [Audio Gap] Over the reported $0.25 for the same period last year. Cash flow from operations was $159 million compared to $145 million in 2010, an improvement of $15 million. The primary driver of the improved cash flow was improvement in net income of $26 million. Offsetting the higher income were higher levels of working capital, particularly the impact of accounts receivable. There were an additional $17 million use of cash compared to 2010 and additional investments in inventory, which were an incremental $7 million higher use of cash. During the quarter, we spent $85 million in cash and acquisitions, bringing our year-to-date total to $181 million. During 9 months, we also issued 1.1 million shares of stock related to the exercise of stock options and equity compensation. That resulted in $13 million of cash, including related tax benefits. At the end of the quarter, debt was $633 million, and cash and cash equivalents were $45 million. We mentioned in our October 3 press release that we amended our credit facility to increase our capacity by $400 million to $1.4 billion. Under this new facility, as of quarter-end, we had borrowings of $618 million and approximately $35 million of letters of credit that are backstopped by the facility, leaving $740 million of availability for borrowings under the credit facility, including $200 million under the delayed-term loan facility -- delayed-draw term loan facility. We did make a draw under the facility to fund the ECP acquisition of approximately $326 million. In early October, after taking into account the ECP funding, we had $414 million of capacity available, including the delayed-term loan availability. Turning to guidance, you'll note in our press release, we revised much of our guidance. In our year-to-date parts and services growth of 8.8%, we've raised the full-year estimate from 6% to 8% to 7% to 8%. In Q4, we expect to see a slowdown in the organic growth because of more difficult year-over-year comparisons. As we've noted previously, Q4 2011 has one less selling day than Q4 2010. We raised our EPS and net income guidance for the year. The revised EPS guidance is a range of $1.38 to $1.43. New range for income from continuing operations is $204 million to $212 million. I wanted to point out that the revised guidance includes the $0.02 we incurred in the debt refinancing in Q1 and also includes the expected positive impact of ECP. This guidance excludes restructuring, integration and deal costs. Based on the acquisitions we completed today, we expect we could incur approximately $1 million of these costs in Q4 2011. Just take a moment to discuss some of the things that could impact us in Q4. Fuel costs did improve a little sequentially since last quarter, but we're still seeing negative year-over-year miles driven. Further decline in miles driven could lower the number of accidents and, hence, our volume. You will recall in Q1, when commodity prices were rising, we mentioned a positive $0.02 impact to our earnings. We also mentioned that if prices fell, there'd be a risk that we could give up that gain. In Q3, we saw scrap steel commodity prices were essentially flat to Q2. However, at this point, we are seeing some softness in the commodity markets, with some forecasts of scrap prices dropping between $20 and $60 per ton. The decline in scrap steel prices would impact our other revenue category. And we estimate for every $10 decrease in average scrap price compared to Q3 2011 decrease our other revenue by approximately $5 million. In our guidance, we’ve built in an assumption that our diluted earnings per share will be negatively impacted by falling commodity prices of $0.01 to $0.02 per share in Q4. This loss occurs because of the timing difference between when we buy cars and when we sell them as scrap. If commodity prices do fall, we'd expect to be able to buy cars cheaper going forward. So this isn't a long-term impact, but it does impact the quarter when prices fall. We also seen the auction environment fairly stable, although we have paid approximately $1,960 per vehicle for the salvage operations last quarter, which is up from $1,870 we paid in Q2, the mix of cars we bought in Q3 was slightly better. So although we paid more for the cars, we expect them to part out for more. Sequentially, we don't anticipate much impact on the gross margins from the cost of salvage. I've already mentioned that we have one less selling day in Q4 2011, compared to Q4 2010. So it's going to cause a bit of a drag in the organic growth and on earnings. And the revised EPS and guidance includes the impact of Euro Car Parts for Q4. Just wanted to make it clear that the guidance that we gave on October 3 for accretion due to ECP of $0.15 to $0.18 for 2012, incremental earnings to 2012 over what we would otherwise have without ECP, including the impact of ECP in Q4. Our accounting teams are working through the U.K., U.S. GAAP differences and how the companies apply those. ECP includes their national warehouse cost as part of the facility costs, whereas we include those as part of our cost of goods sold. When we described ECP's 2010 gross margin as 44%, that was on the basis of their chart of accounts and their application of GAAP. In our chart of accounts, that margin would likely be a little bit lower. We're still working through the accounting. At this point, it's our expectation that the impact will be less than 100 basis points to our Q4 gross margin. Just to be clear, this is simply moving costs from one line item to another and in no way impacts the net income or accretion we expect from ECP. Our guidance for cash flow from operations of approximately $195 million did not change. And the full-year guidance, we continue to expect our capital spending to be between $85 million and $95 million. We've seen a little less capital spending domestically, and that's being offset by some additional spending, as we continue the aggressive build-out of the U.K. footprint. I know many of our listeners are working on their 2012 projections. Our field is currently working on their detailed estimates. In the next 2 months, Joe, Rob and I will be traveling the country to read those plans. After which, we'll be presenting the consolidated results to our board. Until that work is completed, we're not in a position to speak meaningfully in any detail regarding 2012. But we expect to share our thoughts with you on our Q4 earnings call in a few months. I’ll summarize by saying that we were pleased with the way the quarter ended. Again, growth continued at the high end of our range for both aftermarket and recycling, putting up respectable numbers. We saw our gross margins start to improve a bit over Q2 2011. Scrap, fuel and the cost of salvage were all reasonably stable. We saw operating leverage coming back with our operating margins expanding year-over-year and sequentially. We saw our deal flow very strong with 10 deals in the quarter and, of course, the potentially transformational Euro Car Parts deal being completed earlier this month. Thanks to our improving credit profile and the support of our banks, we ended the quarter with liquidity to complete that transaction and still have over $450 million of cash and other availability for future deals. It’s nice to see everything firing in all cylinders. With that, operator, we'd like to open the phones to questions, please.