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Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (LIND)

Q1 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 30, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Lindblad Expeditions 2024 First Quarter Financial Results. My name is Angela, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand you over to your host, Craig Felenstein, Chief Financial Officer, to begin. Please go ahead.

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Lindblad's 2024 First Quarter Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Sven Lindblad, Lindblad's Founder and Chief Executive Officer. Sven will begin with some opening comments, and then I will follow with some details on our financial results, balance sheet and current 2024 expectations before we open the call for Q&A. You can find our latest earnings release in the Investor Relations section of our website. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that the company's comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Those expectations are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and performance to be materially different from these expectations. The company cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecast or estimates, and we undertake no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. If you would like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see the company's SEC filings. In addition, our comments may reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are contained in the company's earnings release. And with that out of the way, let me turn the call over to Sven.

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Thank you, Craig, and good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. If I sound a little odd periodically, I've been hit hard by allergies, so I might cough now and then. I'm sure that's true for many of you with all of the flowering trees around. In any case, Lindblad's first quarter results set the stage for another year of double-digit growth and record results in 2024. Craig will provide additional color on our performance this past quarter, but before he does, let me take a few minutes to discuss some of the drivers of the continued growth this year as well as some of the steps we are taking to sustain that momentum in the years ahead. First and foremost, the bookings strength we experienced throughout 2023 has continued into this year as more and more guests want to explore the remarkable destinations we visit. The goal to connect authentically with nature and culture is continually growing, and there is no other company in this segment with our track record or with our commitment to providing authentic and immersive travel itineraries. Bookings this year-to-date for future travel were up 20% versus the same period in 2023, and we expanded our overall in-year bookings growth to 4% ahead of where we were at the same point in 2023. Now it's worth reminding that 2023 benefited from significant carryover business from cancellations during COVID. Excluding these carryover bookings, the reservations for '24 travel would be well over 20% of that a year ago. These carryover bookings were also one of the primary reasons for occupancies below the first quarter a year ago. Excluding carryover bookings, the occupancy would have increased versus first quarter of 2023. The majority of the carryover bookings for 2023 were early in the year,…

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Thanks, Sven, and thanks so much for those kind words. Lindblad's first quarter performance has the company well positioned to deliver another year of record financial results as it further ramps ship operations with broader deployment of its expanded fleet and continued expansion of its diversified portfolio of land businesses. The year-on-year results are expected to ramp throughout the year as the company leverages the investments it has made in overall infrastructure and marketing and sales capabilities to capitalize on the strong demand for experiential travel. Turning to the first quarter. Total company revenue of $154 million increased $10 million or 7% versus the first quarter of 2023, as we continue to offer additional trips across both the Lindblad and Land Experiences segments. At the Lindblad segment, revenue of $118.3 million increased $2.8 million or 2% versus the first quarter a year ago, led by a 3% increase in available guest nights from broader utilization of the fleet and from 1% net yield growth to $1,219 per available guest night primarily due to higher pricing and increased other revenue, partially offset by a decrease in occupancy to 76% and from 81% in the first quarter a year ago. The first quarter did include the impact of softness in the Middle East due to recent worldwide events and also included the cancellation of 2 voyages in the Galápagos as we discussed last quarter. As occupancy ramps, there will be significant operating leverage inherent in the marine platform as the company attracts more and more guests while maintaining strong pricing discipline across the expanded fleet. At the Land Experiences segment, revenue of $35.3 million increased $7.4 million or 27% versus a year ago, led by additional guests and higher pricing across natural habitats trips to Africa and to the Northern Lights, DuVine…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have the first question from Steve Wieczynski from Stifel.

Steven Wieczynski

Analyst

Yes. First of all, congrats, Craig, on the new opportunity. You obviously will be missed at Lindblad for sure. So -- okay, so if we think about the rest of the year, it seems like the investment and the royalties that you guys are going to be paying out for this year for the revised Disney agreement might be a little bit more than we were expecting in terms of what we saw in the first quarter. So just kind of wondering how we should think about costs associated with that investment for the next 3 quarters. And then on top of that, is the right thinking here that this year is all about the investment in that new partnership? And then 2025 and beyond is really when you'll start to see the benefits from teaming up with Disney. And I think Sven mentioned that in his prepared remarks, but I just want to make sure that's the way we should think about the next, call it, 12 to 24 months?

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Sure. So let me start with -- and thanks for your kind words, Steve. I appreciate it. So let me start with the National Geographic year-on-year payments. So as you know, we are now, with that agreement, paying a flat royalty fee throughout the course of the year. A year ago, the payments to National Geographic obviously fluctuated depending on their individual performance, because they were being paid a commission at the same time as well as the performance of the overall company. So the impact in every given quarter is going to fluctuate. And the impact in Q1, when you look at it year-on-year, will be greater than it will be in some of the other quarters later in this year. So that's kind of how the year-on-year growth in the National Geographic payments will play out for the next 9 months. When you look at the positive impact that they're going to have, and Sven can add some additional color here, given the booking window that we do have, which is about 9 months still on average, you would anticipate the majority of the impact being in 2025 in earnest. Now there has been, as Sven mentioned, in this year, some one-offs that have been done to take advantage of their Disney distribution power and the National Geographic distribution power. And we do believe that's contributing to some of the strong booking growth that we're seeing today. But the real value and the real significant value will take place in 2025 and beyond.

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Yes. Steve, I could add a couple of things. So if you think about the -- that we signed our agreement with National Geographic in November, right, last year. And prior to that, Disney was really not a factor in the equation. It was -- we had -- since 2004, we had a relationship with National Geographic and whatever their machine was capable of providing, and it was actually significant. But now the -- now since November, we're adding Disney to the equation. And obviously, their channels for distribution, in particular, and many of their ideas are incredible. I mean this is the largest entertainment conglomerate in the world. And so we believe that there is going to be significant value as a consequence, but it is going to take a bit of time to ramp up because they don't make decisions as it relates to something next month or a few weeks from now and implement them that way. It's much more of a long-term play. But we will start seeing -- we already have started seeing some results, but we will see, I think, significantly greater results starting in 2025.

Steven Wieczynski

Analyst

And then second question, I want to ask about the acquisition that was announced this morning. And I guess my question really isn't about the acquisition, but around the use of capital for that acquisition. And I guess what I'm getting at is, look, I don't think we can ignore where the share price is today and in our opinion, to us, the underappreciated long-term opportunity here with Disney and National Geographic. So to us, the share price does seem undervalued here. So I guess the question is, how do you balance doing acquisitions like this versus taking that $30 million, maybe not all that $30 million in terms of what you spent on the acquisition and essentially looking at buying back shares at these levels? Hopefully, that makes sense.

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Yes, sure. Thanks, Steve, for the question. We always have balanced, what I would say is long-term growth and long-term capital deployment. When we look at the opportunities in front of us for an asset, an acquisition like Wineland and not get too specific in what opportunities moving forward, but when you can buy it at the multiple that we acquired that asset at, which is significantly below where the multiple of our existing company is trading at and you see some significant growth in that asset moving forward, especially when you layer in some of the expertise that we have at the Lindblad and Natural Habitat companies as well as some of the resources we have to continue to invest in those assets, you weigh the opportunity versus the opportunity that you see investing in your own shares. And as you know, you can't always help and identify when these assets become available. They become available when they become available. So we are continuously weighing the future growth opportunity with an asset like this versus what we believe is obviously significant upside in our existing shares. And as we move forward and we look to allocate capital moving forward, we will balance those things still between investing in our existing business, investing in M&A or returning capital to shareholders, either through buying back stock or through reducing our debt load in some capacity.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Eric Wold with B. Riley Securities.

Eric Wold

Analyst

Two questions for me. I guess the first one, I know that you reaffirmed the prior guidance ranges and it's only been a couple of months since the Q4 call when you first gave that. But was there anything with the cost you saw in Q1 and maybe so far in April Q2 that were not fully anticipated when you gave that guidance that would kind of need to see some relief to maybe give you more comfort in the higher end of that range than the lower end?

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Nothing significant. I mean, the biggest one is obviously fuel. The prices have continued to rise and that has created a bit of a headwind for us, and that will continue to be the case. And then certainly, when we look at some of the voyage cancellations that we've had, the impact of not only those voyage cancellations but also some of the, what I would say, is residual softness related to some of the instability around the world would have us -- a bit of a headwind on some of our guidance here. But we gave a range -- when we gave the range back in end of the first -- or end of the fourth quarter, we still feel comfortable that we'll be within that range here moving forward. The biggest variables will certainly be the continued revenue generation. As I said in my remarks, we're 94% of the way sold out with regards to our revenue expectations for the year at the Lindblad segment, but that last 6% does come at a very high margin, right? So it's imperative on us to fill the rest of the 6%. And If we do that, we should be able to get where we want to be from a full year perspective.

Eric Wold

Analyst

Got it. And then second question, I can honestly understand the decision to add a highly-variable cost land-based business is different than the decision to add a new ship to the fleet. But maybe update us on kind of where you are on the decision curve to add to the fleet and kind of what you really need to see to make that commitment, whether it's a used ship available out there with some of these competitors that may be struggling or committing to a kind of a multiyear build process.

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Yes. First, about the land company. So just one of the things that was particularly attractive about this most recent acquisition was that this is a company that's been in existence for 40 years. And in a country which is probably the wealthiest country from the perspective of wildlife in all of Africa, to get a footing in a country like Tanzania with somebody that has had that wealth of experience is really, really a meaningful opportunity and has tremendous opportunity to be developed further. So for us, so far, the whole concept of land businesses has been a sort of a counterbalance, if you will. With ships, it's largely fixed costs. Certain things happen like COVID. And the dynamics of that are different or the effect of that is different on ships than it is on a land company. But we are absolutely keen on growing our maritime business. Now there are a couple of triggers that we need to -- there are a couple of things that we need to see before we trigger new opportunities. And one of them, by the way, is there's an interesting question about building ships or acquiring ships. The business was largely built on acquiring ships, and then in recent years, on building ships. Our thesis is that there probably will be ships available in the future that were built and perhaps don't have -- that weren't as successful as the people who built them hoped they'd be, maybe a polite way to put it. And so we're really, really keeping our eyes out on companies that have ships that maybe come and go. That's number one. And what we want to make sure of is that we are doing as good a job as we did prior to the pandemic in filling the ships that we have, because the value of that is off the charts by comparison to any other form of investment. So making up the 10% differential, let's say, to where we are now and where we would like to be at 10%, 12% is just massively valuable. And you don't want to add inventory and spread out your reach, because you're adding your cost and you're just spreading out your reach. That really isn't a smart thing to do. So we have to feel that we're at the stage where -- I mean, my goal is to have -- to feel that you can get 125% of the occupancy that you have. And the minute you envision you're headed in that direction, you can begin to trigger new acquisitions.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Chris Woronka with DB.

Chris Woronka

Analyst

And Craig, congrats on the new opportunity. All the best at the new place, and we'll miss you. Can we maybe talk a little bit about the comments you made earlier about the competitive environment? I guess the question would be, is the level surprise greater on kind of the level of competition that's out there in the -- some of the new entrants? Or is it more about how they're handling their pricing strategies?

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Yes, Sven here. I think it's a combination of both. I mean, somebody obviously got ahold of a spreadsheet at a certain point and said, "Wow, this business looks like it has tremendous potential." Because when you think about it, the explosion of entries in the last 5 years is just -- is so many more ships than we ever imagined in this segment. So it's unprecedented. So I think to be totally honest, I think what people have probably done is underestimated the complexity of expedition travel. You're going to remote areas. You have to understand geography. You have to have the right teams or else you're going to get into trouble. You have to have good, deep relationships with the people and the institutions in those countries, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So it's actually quite complicated. The other thing is I think people maybe have underrated the intelligence of the audience in some instances, because the audience is very sophisticated that does this kind of thing. And they care deeply about quality. What is the quality of the staff, what is the quality of the experience, how well thought out are the itineraries, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So -- and then brand, of course, as I mentioned earlier, is, I think, an important thing. I mean, obviously, our brand is very, very well known to a very, very small number of people. I mean -- because when we started this business, expedition travel was not a big category. But for people that have any interest in that category and that includes the trade, we are very well known in that regard. But obviously, National Geographic is a brand that everybody on the planet knows. And so the combination of the two creates something, I think, quite meaningful -- very, very meaningful, that helps those interested in expedition travel sort of migrate in our direction. Hope that answers your question.

Chris Woronka

Analyst

Yes. Yes. And just a follow-up. On the cost side, and I totally understand and heard what you mentioned about the National Geographic fees and the changes there. But on the other things and maybe even look at it ex fuel, is there anything to suggest that you see moderation on the pressure coming in the second half? I know some of the costs can be kind of lumpy, insurance, things like that. I mean, is there any visibility into lower increases moving forward?

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Sure. And thanks for the comments earlier, Chris. So there's a couple of things on the cost that will, I would say, mitigate a bit. One is, as you can imagine, the first quarter of the year is a big quarter for us from a cash receipt perspective, both from the deposits on future travel as well as down payments for new reservations. The credit card fees are definitely higher in Q1. So the growth in Q1 there would be higher than it would be later in the year. The second thing is there are some timing issues associated with some of the land company costs that come into the first quarter. You can see the flow-through from a land company profitability perspective in the first quarter is not what it is later in the year. So you should see, what I would say, better margin, I would say, on the land business, certainly in the rest of the year. So those are the big ones. There's a little bit of currency hit in the first quarter related to some of the currency movements and some of the operations that are land companies as well. So that should abate itself as well. So those are some, what I would say, is one-offs that you'll see not flow through the rest of the year.

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Can I add something? So I -- if I could just add one thing. Sven here. Because Craig and I talk about this a lot, obviously, there is an expectation on the part of a lot of people for the occupancies to go up, rightly so, and they will go up, by the way. But more important than occupancy in the short term is price integrity in the long term, because what's -- one of the things you really sort of analyze in a business like this, let's say -- you can get to -- we could get to 100% occupancy tomorrow if we took on some really bad habits that would have a very negative effect on the business long term. So ships -- small ships, expedition ships cannot function at revenues that are 50%. It's not sustainable. And so we -- our emphasis is let's do -- let's drive up occupancy. But at the same time, let's make sure we do not invalidate price integrity, because once you do too much of that, it's hard to come back, right? So I just wanted to clarify that point.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Alex Fuhrman with Craig-Hallum Capital.

Alex Fuhrman

Analyst

Craig, sorry to hear that you're going to be leaving the company. Sven, you mentioned that some of your geographies, I think, Antarctica in particular, you're seeing a lot more competitive pricing from some of your competitors with the 2-for-1 deals. Curious, do you think a lot of this is ultimately short term in nature? Or do you think given the nature of your small ships and how nimble you can be, are there maybe opportunities to reposition some of your ships for part of the season to even more remote, less-visited destinations where you have more pricing power over time?

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Yes. Well, Antarctica is about as remote as you're going to get. But we're -- there is competitive price points, but we're doing very well in Antarctica. So I'm not -- despite the fact that there's an overwhelming number of ships down there, we're doing well. And one of the reasons why is because we've really -- like what we did with developing our fly-in program for one of our -- so we had the dilemma where we had a ship -- that was an older ship, very nice ship, by the way, the National Geographic Explorer next to our 2 new ships, the National Geographic Endeavour and the National Geographic Resolution. And there's a natural inclination on the part of people who want to buy something that's new. So the ships were doing well and the Explorer was lagging a little bit behind just because again, she was older and not the new thing. So what we did is we created a whole different program incorporating the flying into Antarctica, allowing people with less time to go there. And that was the perfect counterpoint to the dilemma. We didn't like discount it, we just changed the idea. And people just bought it and it filled up instantly, essentially instantly. And so there are lots of levers you can deploy in order to change your destiny. And it isn't just -- obviously, it isn't just price. Geography is absolutely key or how you operate in a particular geography. So there are a variety of ways you can kind of get the job done. In this case, it was by creating a totally, totally new idea. So the Explorer and the new ships were, in fact, not in competition anymore.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions, so I will hand back to the management team to conclude.

Craig Felenstein

Analyst

Thank you, operator. And thank you, everybody, again, for joining us today. And thank you for your support over the years, and I look forward to finishing up the next month. And if you have any questions, please let me know, and please let us know. We're happy to answer them today or in the future. Thank you.

Sven-Olof Lindblad

Analyst

Many thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much. This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.