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Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, May 8, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Today’s call is being recorded. I’ll now turn the call over to Gagandeep Sethi, Vice President of Operations.

Gagandeep Sethi

President

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Liberty Latin America’s First Quarter 2019 Investor Call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Latin America, and any distribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the expressed written consent of Liberty Latin America is strictly prohibited. At this time, all participants are on listen-only mode. Today’s formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Latin America’s website at www.lla.com. Following today’s formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded on this date, May 8, 2019. Page 2 of the slides details the Company’s Safe Harbor statements regarding forward-looking statements. Today’s presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the Company’s expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and any other information and statements that are not historical fact. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed, from time to time, in Liberty Latin America’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. Liberty Latin America disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. In addition, on this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measures, which can be found in the appendices to this presentation and on our Investor Relations website, also note that nothing offer of any securities for sale. I would now like to turn over the call to Liberty Latin America’s CEO, Mr. Balan Nair.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you, Gagandeep, and welcome, everybody, to our first quarter results presentation. I’m once again joined by my senior leadership team from across the region, and I will get them involved as needed during the Q&A. For our agenda today, I’ll start by taking you through our highlights for the first quarter and then provide some greater detail on progress we are making across the group, including some exciting commercial launches, which have led to good operational results and positions us well for future quarters. Chris Noyes, our Chief Financial Officer, will then follow with some prepared remarks reviewing our financial performance during the quarter. And after that, we will get straight to your questions. As a point of housekeeping, we will both be working from slides, which you can find on our website at www.lla.com. Let me start on Slide 4 with our key highlights for the quarter. Firstly, we are starting to see some real improvements in our subscriber trends. In our fixed line business, we had a record first quarter performance, adding over 70,000 RGUs, while in mobile, we saw first positive net adds quarter in two years, including in Cable & Wireless. Second, from a financial perspective, we saw strong year-over-year rebased revenue and OCF growth of 4% and 9%, respectively, driven by another excellent quarter in Puerto Rico. Third, we are continuing to upgrade and expand our fixed networks. Having added 330,000 homes last year, we passed or upgraded more than 80,000 homes in first quarter. These investments deliver greater returns for us and will drive growth as we progress through the year. Moving to point four. Adjusted free cash flow is a key deliverable for us, and at $48 million, it was up significantly compared to the prior year. Finally, on the M&A front,…

Chris Noyes

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Balan. I will start on Slide 11 with a summary of our Q1 consolidated quarterly financial results. Important to note that we will begin consolidating the operating results of UTS in Q2. We delivered $943 million in revenue and $366 million in OCF, resulting in rebased revenue growth of 4% and rebased OCF growth of 9%. This growth was helped by continued momentum in Puerto Rico following the restoration of our own network last year. Our P&E additions totaled $139 million in Q1 or 15% of revenue as compared to $194 million or 21% of revenue last year. The prior year quarter included approximately $70 million of hurricane restoration spend – in the quarter, significantly above the prior year period driven by higher insurance recoveries, lower CapEx and improved cash flow from operations. With respect to insurance specifically, we received $67 million in Q1 2019 from our final settlement payout as compared to a $30 million advance in Q1 2018. Moving to Slide 12, I will summarize the Q1 performance for each of our three operating segments. On the left-hand side of the slide, Cable & Wireless posted $570 million of revenue, slightly down on a rebased basis. Our top line performance continues to be impacted by declines in mobile revenue driven by reductions in ARPU and in our mobile subscriber base, principally in Panama and Bahamas. However, as Balan highlighted, we began to see some signs of stabilization in these markets. On the positive side, we delivered rebased revenue growth of 5% in fixed residential, fueled by over 100,000 subscriber additions over the last 12 months, and we posted top line growth of 2% in B2B. Q1 OCF was $223 million, which is slightly lower on a rebased basis compared to the prior year, largely following the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we’ll go first to Amy Yong with Macquarie.

Amy Yong

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. I was wondering if you could spend a little bit of time just talking about the competitive landscape facing VTR and also Cable & Wireless. I understand that Telefonica is pushing a little bit more aggressively. And then maybe if you could talk a little about what you’re seeing from Digicel. And then Chris, what kind of financial contributions should we expect from UTS? Thank you.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you, Amy. So let me start with VTR first. We did see some increased competition from a couple of peers out there, and we saw that in our numbers towards the end of the fourth quarter and perhaps in the first month of the year. It was mostly a lot of pricing, and they did some upgrades on their networks. But what we did in response is, of course, to improve our proposition, improve the offering to the market. And what we’ve seen in – since February is quite a bit of improvement, and you’ll see – saw that in our net adds as well. So we see VTR coming out of some of the intense competition that lasted probably a couple of months. We both have seen some of our competitors starting to take their prices back up and taking some of the discount off the table. So we think it’ll be very rational there. And our team has been working on a couple – three things: one, on our pricing proposition; two, the product quality; and three, retention. And in all of fronts, I think we did a pretty good job there. On the Cable & Wireless side, it’s really a tale of many stories. It’s Panama. It’s really the intensity of the mobile competition, and we started to see that beginning in second quarter of last year when most of the players started to go unlimited. And there has been a lot of disruption in the mobile market in Panama. In the Bahamas, as I’ve indicated on previous calls, it’s really, first, being a monopoly and suddenly a competitor shows up in the mobile front in 2017. And we think we’ll start losing – we’ll lose subscribers, and it will bottom up – bottom out in about – at about 35%, which I’ve said before. And then it should remain stable on the mobile front there. And so that’s kind of a little bit of overview on the competitive landscape. Digicel, by the way, is – where we compete with them, they are a good competitor, a good company and it’s very rational. And so we feel fine competing with Digicel, and I think they feel the same way about us. Now I’ll pass on to Chris to answer the questions on UTS.

Chris Noyes

Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Amy. On the financial contribution, it will be – as I mentioned, it’ll be included just for nine months, so start April 1. And the best way to think about it is we gave an enterprise value for the whole business of $189 million and a six times pre-synergized multiple. So if you just divide that, you’ll get roughly $30 million of annual OCF or EBITDA. And if you just quarter-ized that, that’s not a bad way to think about it. It is a business that has significant upside. So from a margin perspective, it’ll be a margin much lower out of the gate than our other businesses. There is a restructuring that we inherited that’s in flight that will significantly help the business as we go out, but it will drag on the margin, on free cash flow in the first few quarters. But we’ll absorb that within our free cash flow envelope.

Balan Nair

Management

And so we stay within guidance.

Operator

Operator

We’ll move now to James Ratcliffe with Evercore.

James Ratcliffe

Analyst

Good morning, thanks for taking the question. Two, if I could. First of all, you mentioned a part in Chile of making investment around digitization and the like. Can you talk about the magnitude of those investments and when and where we’d see the impact, either on top line or cost structure there? And secondly, regarding the ongoing LTE migration. What are the benefits you get when a customer actually becomes an LTE customer? Do you see changes in ARPU, churn, et cetera? Any color on that would be great. Thank you.

Balan Nair

Management

Okay. I’ll take both questions separately. The LTE migration is very accretive to us. On an average, customers that use LTE, the ARPU is more than 1.5 times what our existing prepaid subscribers are – or just non-LTE subscribers, and they consume two to three times more data. That’s what we see. So all in all, it’s a good thing. The challenge in our market, of course, is handsets. And handsets have been really a barrier for people to want to move to LTE. But our networks are fully covered. I’ll ask Vivek Khemka, who’s our Chief Technology and Product Officer. Maybe a comment from you, Vivek.

Vivek Khemka

Analyst

Yes. It’s – I think benefits from migrating to LTE, like Balan said, ARPU, data usage, better customer satisfaction, access to some of the newer apps and features and functions that we see customers wanting to use. Also a benefit, as we migrate customers off from 3G, we can refarm some of the spectrum. So those would be the additional benefits as we start moving to LTE, and then the 3G spectrum could be applied towards LTE or even future 5G builds.

Balan Nair

Management

Great. Thanks, Vivek. And on the – on Chile, on digitization. Digitization is something that’s very important for our company, in transforming not only our cost structure but the way customers want to interact with us. And we started our first project in Chile, which we should complete by the end of this summer, and you’ll see a lot of that costs rolling off as well. And I have Guillermo on the bridge as well from Chile. And maybe Guillermo, you can touch on some of the key operational savings or actually operational opportunities as well as the benefits to customers.

Guillermo Ponce

Analyst

Of course. Thank you, Balan. Our digitization project is going to help us, first of all, streamline the relationship with consumers. So let me just give you an example. The way we manage all the technical service technicians to the field will be more aligned to modern services using applications, sending notifications to customers and making their relationship more simple and more streamlined. That’s one example. They will also bring efficiency to call centers and other interactions like billing and the like. Not only that front but also the internal front will be helped by digitization. And we, as Balan mentioned, should be able to roll up the – and finish up the main part of the project in two to three months. And after that, we’ll start to see the benefits of it.

James Ratcliffe

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll move now to Soomit Datta with New Street Research.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Hi, thanks. A couple of questions, please. Just sticking with Chile for a second. Thanks for the quick run-through as to what’s happening in the market. But in terms of the competitive landscape, we’ve seen the competitors have a flurry of activity and gone quiet again, it sounds like. Why do you think that’s happened? And are they going to come back for round two at some point? It seems like – with Telefonica being a little bit more aggressive, is there anybody else in the market you’re seeing which is also trying to win some share? And then secondly, if I could, just follow-up on the wireless activities, I guess, in Panama and in the Bahamas. How confident are you that the competitors are now easing off somewhat? Obviously, we’ve seen ARPU down. Prices have come down. You’re protecting your share well in the meantime, which is great news. But is there any risk you think of, again, extra competition coming further down the road? Thank you.

Balan Nair

Management

Okay. I’ll answer the wireless question now and go to Chile. And I’ll also ask Inge and Guillermo to think about your responses as well. So let me give you my view. So on the wireless side, I wouldn’t say that the intensity of competition is going down. I think in Panama, like I said, starting second quarter last year, most of our competitors have gone to unlimited reduced pricing. And our strategy on value creation was to, at first, keep the pricing at levels not to see any ARPU deterioration and try to hold the line. Very quickly by – in a couple of quarters, we realized that we either can start losing revenue or start losing net adds. And so we take – we took a different tack, and you’ll start seeing – and you started to see it already in the fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year. We’re now starting to get net adds, which kind of means that the ARPU that we are at is kind of leveling off. So once you start having ARPUs and you’re starting to see net adds, you know you’ve got the right price. And the campaigns that we’ve put in place have been very strong. In the Bahamas, it’s a duopoly market on mobile. And our competitor’s good, and they’ve taught our team a number of things. And it’s really up to us on how we want to respond, and I think we’re responding it – we’re responding correctly in trying to preserve value in that market. But we will see, still, not a four or five more points of top line challenge on the mobile front because we’ll bottom out at like 35% or so as I indicated. Now Inge, maybe you want to add a little bit more color to what I just said.

Inge Smidts

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, Balan. I think competition will always be there. I think the big difference versus before is we have the right teams in place. We have the right propositions in the markets, which we did not have before. We have the right marketing plans, and that will allow us to really be much more ahead of the game. On top, we have the best networks, both in Panama, and that you will see also behind the campaign we just launched with La Senal de Panama, and also in the Bahamas. So it is up to us to really make sure that from a commercial point of view, we really harvest that piece, and we are fully ready for that.

Balan Nair

Management

Thanks, Inge. On Chile, this is probably our most competitive market. You’ve got Telefonica. You’ve got Claro. You’ve got Entel. These are giants. And they’ve – over the last 10 years, as long as I’ve been associated with that business, they’ve been coming at us, overbilled us. They’ve done a whole bunch of different things that – fiber-to-the-home. Every single playbook from the telco side, they’ve played. And our team on the ground, led by Guillermo, we’ve done – we’ve been very nimble in responding, and we’ve seen these ups and downs over the many years. And at every turn, we’ve responded back, and we’ve made sure that we preserve value there. And to your question around them retreating and why wouldn’t they come back, I’ll – let me maybe ask Guillermo to give you a little bit more color on the status on the ground. Guillermo? Sorry. We – Guillermo got dropped off the call. But yes – so the answer remains that we’re not that too terribly concerned, but we are always very cautious. And we treat our competitors there with the full respect, and we know they can come back at us. But we have a great network with a great product. We’ve got a really good value proposition on the ground. And don’t forget, we are also building extensively in Chile, and that new construction there is bringing us very good volume as well.

Soomit Datta

Analyst

Okay, clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll move now to Kevin Roe with Roe Equity Research.

Kevin Roe

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. As we think about the improvement in quarterly OCF implied by your full year OCF guidance, can you discuss the Cable & Wireless margin upside potential and the key levers there? And related to that question, if you could also discuss your new Cable & Wireless Premier League agreement and its impact on the Cable & Wireless margin expansion. Thank you.

Balan Nair

Management

Sure. Thanks, Kevin. They’re both kind of related. We – there’s a few things that’s driving Cable & Wireless. Inge talked about really good campaigns that are starting to drive operational improvements in both our efficiency as well as the net adds. And all those net adds that we put – piling on in Cable & Wireless is going to show up in – on the financials. And our operating leverage there is improving as well as programming costs that’s going down, and they’ll go down quite a bit in the second half of the year. The EPL – I think when you look at the EPL agreement that we did with Digicel, look at it two ways. One, we are very rational, and we are willing to partner with anyone to create value. And that’s what we did there. And secondly, you can imagine that the cost of that has gone down from what we used to have plus you divide it by two. So this is quite an improvement to us from a cost structure standpoint. So we are very confident in the second half of this year in expanding the margins and expanding the bottom line at Cable & Wireless.

Kevin Roe

Analyst

That’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll move now to Matthew Harrigan with Buckingham.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst

Thank you. Most of my specific questions were answered. But I was curious if you could comment on the macro in Panama and particularly – it seems like relative to [indiscernible] 6% norm for a good number of years. And then in Chile, where there’s a lot of focus on China and the copper prices and how it affects currency and all that, I know you got a very nice runway and – irrespective of mild variations and economic growth. But I think China and Chile probably affects how your stock behaves sometimes.

Balan Nair

Management

Sure. The macros on both places are extremely good, and they’re good because political stability, very pro-business governments. The population is really in the middle, upper-middle class. And if you go to either Panama or Chile, I think you’ll leave feeling wow. You land in Panama, you think you just landed in Hong Kong or something, right? It is an amazing country. And with the recent elections as well, we feel really good about the future of that country and our business in that country. And you saw last year, the government passed a bill to allow for consolidation on the mobile networks, and that’s very positive. And we think with the new administration, all signals we’ve heard it, not only do they support it but I think they’ll make it even easier for consolidation to occur. And in Chile, we feel the same way as well, both on the government side and the population and local economics. You are absolutely right. It’s a commodity-based economy, copper specifically, and it’s tied to construction. And China drives that construction a lot. And those are things we can’t control, and we try to model it as best in our LRP. But really, the good news here is that Chris has done a really good job on – with the currencies and hedging, et cetera. So I think we are fine there.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst

I think one of the cabinet, maybe, ministers is making noise to the fact that Panama has always been very U.S.-centric, but you’re seeing more interest by China. And if U.S. doesn’t pay attention, you could actually see somewhat of a pivot toward – more of a pivot towards China in the region. Is that anything that could affect you? Or is that just something you see as a stimulant to further economic activity?

Balan Nair

Management

I’ll make a more personal commentary here that – I see that. We all see that across all of Latin America. It’s not specific to Panama or China. It’s investing in those countries, and they’re doing a really good job. And we see the economic stimulation in Latin America and in the Caribbean, by the way. If you look at any of the major road constructions, highways and all, they’re being built by Chinese money and Chinese expertise as well. And I think once again, personal commentary, I think the U.S. government can do more for the region and be supportive of it. We have lots of clients. We talk to a lot of people in the – on the U.S. side. And – but we don’t see it as a downside having China being an investor in those areas because they are doing a really good job, and it is stimulating the economy. And there is a lot of demand for broadband and services that we provide.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst

Thanks, Balan. I apologize for going off on a bit of a tangent.

Balan Nair

Management

No worries, Matt.

Operator

Operator

And that will conclude today’s question-and-answer session. I’d like to hand back to Balan Nair for any additional or closing remarks.

Balan Nair

Management

Thank you so much, operator. I feel good about the first quarter and then certainly the first half of the year as it sets a really good platform for us for the second half of this year and where you will see a significant improvement. And when Chris said we reiterate our guidance for the year, I mean we say that with full confidence. And we see the upside is coming at us for the rest of the year. So thank you, everybody. Thank you for your support, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Latin America’s First Quarter 2019 Investor Call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Latin America’s website at www.lla.com. There, you can also find a copy of today’s presentation materials.