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Littelfuse, Inc. (LFUS)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 2, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Littelfuse Incorporated Fourth Quarter 2015 Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Gordon Hunter. Please go ahead, sir.

Gordon Hunter

Management

Thank you and good morning. And welcome to the Littelfuse fourth quarter 2015 conference call. As always, joining me today is Phil Franklin, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also here with me today is Meenal Sethna, Senior Vice President of Finance. In our news release yesterday, we announced Phil’s planned retirement after 17 years with Littelfuse and the transition of his responsibilities to Meenal at the end of March. As most of you know, Phil has been instrumental in creating significant returns for our shareholders and in shaping our strong financial position. He and Meenal have been working closely together for the past several months. I’m confident we have a very smooth transition. Meenal, welcome to the conference call team.

Meenal Sethna

Management

Thanks Gordon. I’ve met and talked with many of you already. I look forward to working with all of our analysts and investors, and discussing our results and strategies and answer any questions you may have about the company.

Gordon Hunter

Management

Now, let’s turn to the results for the fourth quarter, which was a strong finish to the year. Fourth quarter sales were up 10% in constant currency and adjusted EPS of $1.21 was $0.03 above the midpoint of our guidance. As we mentioned previously, this year’s fourth quarter included an extra week which came in as we expected, adding approximately $9 million to revenues and about $0.02 to earnings per share. Sales increased in all three of our segments. Electronics sales were strong in many of our key markets; automotive had a record quarter with double-digit sales increases in all three geographies in constant currency; electrical sales were also strong, especially in the solar market and custom products continued to improve. 2015 was a very good year for the Littelfuse overall with record revenues, adjusted earnings per share and cash flow. We executed on our growth strategies with organic revenue growth of 6% for the year excluding currency. We also made significant progress on our M&A goals with the agreement to acquire the circuit protection business of TE Connectivity. Adjusted EBITDA operating margins improved 50 basis points for the year. And we believe we outperformed many in our peer group in what was a less than robust global economic environment. So, I’ll discuss our fourth quarter and 2015 performance in more detail in a few minutes but first I’ll turn the call over to Phil who will give the Safe Harbor statement and a brief summary of the news release.

Phil Franklin

Management

Thanks Gordon and good morning everyone. Before we proceed, let me remind everyone that comments made during this call include forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and as such, do include various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release and SEC filings for more information on the specific risk factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Sales for the fourth quarter of 2015 were $220 million, which was up 6% year-over-year and 10% excluding currency effects. GAAP earnings for the fourth quarter of 2015 including $5.7 million of restructuring and acquisition costs were $1 per diluted share. Excluding these special items, earnings per share were $1.21 which was a 19% increase compared to the prior year quarter. For the full year 2015, sales were $868 million, which was 2% growth over 2014 or 6% in constant currency. GAAP earnings for the full year of 2015 were $3.63 per diluted share. Adjusted earnings were $5.05 per diluted share, which was 6% growth over the prior year. Cash provided by operating activities was a $166 million for 2015, which was an 8% increase compared to the prior year. So in summary, we closed 2015 with the solid quarter and for the full year delivered record performance for all key financial metrics. Now, I’ll turn it back to Gordon for more color on business performance and market trends.

Gordon Hunter

Management

Thanks, Phil. I’ll begin with the electronics segment which accounts for about 47% of total Littelfuse sales. Electronics sales were up 4% in the fourth quarter and 2% for the full year in constant currency. Strong sales in both, Europe and China helped to offset continued adjustments in channel inventory and capacity constraints for our electronic sensor products as we continue to transfer production to the Philippines. Electronics channels inventories were down slightly at the end of the fourth quarter, compared to the third quarter with the decrease primarily in North America. We now believe the channels have the appropriate levels of inventory. As we look at key geographies, European sales were up 8% in constant currency. Much of this growth continues to come from green initiatives such as smart metering and LED lighting. As we mentioned last quarter, smart metering is a growth opportunity for us as Europe plans to replace 80% of its existing power meters or approximately 250 million units by the year 2020. Also in Europe, we had strong sales of our TVS diodes that are used in many industrial, automotive electronics, aerospace and telecom and market applications. And in contrast to the headlines about the slowing Chinese economy, we continue to see solid growth. New business in China in the fourth quarter included wins for our diode array products, for broadband telecom infrastructure applications and in protecting data lines and ports and new laptop, as well as a win for our PICO fuse in a Ground-Fault Circuit Interrupter application. Next, I’d like to highlight some of our focused growth areas, starting with LED outdoor street lighting. Sales of the surge protection modules we developed for the LED outdoor street lighting market continue to grow at a fast pace, because they provide extra protection from lightening…

Phil Franklin

Management

Thanks, Gordon. For the first quarter of 2016, our guidance is as follows: Sales are expected to be in the range of $213 million to $223 million; earnings for the first quarter are expected to be in the range of $1.21 to $1.35 per diluted share. We believe 2016 will be characterized by continuing macroeconomic challenges and volatility in currencies and commodities. Notwithstanding these challenges, we believe we can grow revenue in the low to mid single digits and expand our operating margins by approximately 150 basis points, excluding the effects of depending CPD acquisition. We also expect to significantly reduce our effective tax rate to approximately 22% for 2016. Assuming the CPD acquisition closes on schedule at the end of March, we will include the effects of CPD in our forward guidance with our first quarter earnings release. As we previously stated, we expect CPD to contribute approximately $1 to earnings per share once we have achieved the targeted $10 million of synergies and before amortization. We expect to achieve full synergies by mid 2017. This concludes our prepared remarks. Now, we’d like to open it up for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shawn Harrison from Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

This is [Indiscernible] on behalf of Shawn. So, with regard to the circuit protection deal, thank you for providing the 2015 metrics. Just looking at 2016, what are you expecting as far as sales and what about the margins profile? You said 20% EBITDA, what does that imply for EBIT; any color would be helpful?

Phil Franklin

Management

At this point, we are not prepared to give any more information on that than what we’ve already given. But I think we indicated earlier that initially sales could be down a little bit from $190 million run rate given some of the negative trends in Japan and a couple of the end markets that this Company serves; ultimately as we look forward into 2017, 2018 we would expect to see that business start to grow again. In terms of the margins, what we said previously and said again here is that EBITDA margins in the neighborhood of about 20% that would imply something in kind of the lower mid-teens for EBIT margins.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then, with regards to the automotive space, thank you for again giving some good growth numbers. Can you give your expectations, where do you see the auto and heavy vehicle base for 2017? And then what is expected for as far as market growth in term such as auto production growth?

Gordon Hunter

Management

For the passenger car, well the data that we have and we use shows that passenger car production is expected to grow by 4% for 2016. And obviously that varies by country, but with China expecting to have a strong 8% growth and North America 4%. The much more fragmented CVP market, we expect still to be challenged by the weaknesses in mining and construction and agriculture, so probably not as strong segment in the CVP market.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

On the top line, the low single digits to mid single digits suggestion for the full year and then looking at I guess 6% core, 4% for the first quarter, the full year tends to round down a little bit. I guess anything specific there or just kind of a nod to the stickiness of the overall macro?

Phil Franklin

Management

Yes. Chris, I think that certainly we’re assuming some continuing macro challenges in headwinds. I mean the other thing that we’re expecting is -- we’ve had several years of tremendous growth in our automotive business and while as we look forward, we still believe over the next several years, there is still a very significant content play for us. I think due to timing of some of the ramp up of some of the programs and the bleeding off of some of the low margin sensor business that we’ve talked about in the past, we would not expect to see automotive grow kind of like -- last year few years it’s been double-digit growth. I think we’re looking at something closer to mid single digits, maybe with a little upside from that. So automotive will clearly be slower than it has been and in ‘16 and ‘17 we would expect that to return to more normal higher single-digit growth rates. But certainly I’ll let the electronics market -- the end markets continue to be somewhat soft. So, we’re not expecting a lot of growth there. And then in electrical as well, we had a very good bounce back here in 2015 in the couple of our end markets there. But we still expect challenges in the mining, oil and gas markets and even parts of industrial. We had some growth markets like solar that we expect to continue to do well, but overall the industrial segment will not grow as fast as it did in 2015 either.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

And then on the margin, 150 basis points, certainly a testament to a lot of the work you’ve been doing. If we try to tier that, I’d expect -- I don’t know maybe automotive in line and electronics -- electrical maybe above electronics, below, I’ll let you maybe refine my speculation.

Phil Franklin

Management

I think the biggest contributions are expected to be in the automotive business. We’ve been talking for a while about improving EBIT margins there and you saw some of that come through in 2015. We expect further improvement there in 2016. A significant part of the improvement will be in the sensor business, as we’ve talked about with the -- we’ll get a little bit of benefit in automotive from the footprint consolidation to the Philippines, but the biggest piece there is going to be the favorable mix change, as we bleed off some of these very low margin programs, legacy programs that we inherited and we replace those with much higher margin programs. And so, even though the growth will slowdown in automotive, we still expect meaningful margin expansion there. But we also expect to see more modest margin expansion in our other two businesses. You’re going to see the electronics business is going to get the lion share, the benefit from the Philippines transfer related to the sensor products there and the reed switch products. So that’s going to have a meaningful impact on margins. And then in the electrical space, we’ve seen some nice bounce back in margins in our legacy electrical fuse business; we expect that margin, modest margin improvement again in 2016 there. So, it’s going to be spread among the businesses, but you will probably see the biggest impacts in automotive.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And congratulations to Phil and Meenal on the milestones.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Franzreb from Sidoti and Company. Please go ahead.

John Franzreb

Analyst

Can we just stick on the margin improvements on the legacy business? Can we talk a little bit about the timing of when you expect to realize those benefits? I know you mentioned the Philippines should be complete by mid-year but also how much do you need revenue growth to hit that 150-point milestone; if you were in a revenue neutral environment, what would the margin improvement look like?

Phil Franklin

Management

The 150 basis-point improvement assumes a less than mid single-digit sales growth, so something in the probably the 3% to 4% range. If we were flat that might take 30 or 40 bps off it I would guess. But we’re reasonably confident that we are going to be able to show at least a little bit of growth from the top line. So, I think the other part of your question relates to the timing of the improvement. We are going to see some of that start to come through in the first quarter. If we look at the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, as we have made good progress on two of the footprint consolidations that we’ve talked quite a bit about, the transfer of the reed switch production to the Philippines and the consolidation of the relay manufacturing into our South Dakota plant, start to see that show up in Q1. It should be -- as you alluded to, it should be in full force by the end of Q2. So, you will see that margin improvement start to pick up; you will see some in Q1, will start to pick up in Q2 and we should be pretty much full forced by middle of the year.

John Franzreb

Analyst

And Gordon, you called out the solar market a couple times in your prepared remarks. I guess I have got two questions. One, how big is it, because I guess I would expect good solar sales this year given a lot of projects move forward because their concerns about the expiring tax credit. So, can you give us a sense of context of the size of that business and I guess do you also assume good growth in 2016 because of that?

Gordon Hunter

Management

Yes, we had a particularly good year in North America but it’s a global business. You might remember a few years ago, a lot of our growth was all driven in Europe and then it sort of switched this last year to North America. But we look at this as a global business that’s got good solid growth for the years ahead. I think as the efficiency of solar panels and solar systems increases, the total cost of the systems come down, the payback period gets shorter because of that efficiency. So, I think we are still seeing good growth for that. What we have managed to do is be ahead with product development. One of the ways of making the solar systems more efficient is moving up the voltage of the DC operating systems from where used to below 1,000 volts up to 1,200 to 1,500 volts. And we have a great line of products at those higher operating voltages. So, I think we’re in a very good position on that. And we are quite confident about the growth in the future, although this was an exceptionally strong year for the reasons you mentioned.

John Franzreb

Analyst

So, how much was solar of total I guess the new industrial segment?

Gordon Hunter

Management

$16 million.

John Franzreb

Analyst

$16 million, okay. And one last question on your share repurchases. Can you give me a sense of what you finished the year with or the current share count and how much is left in authorization?

Meenal Sethna

Management

The initial authorization was the $1 billion of which we had the 650 left on that. So, the almost share repurchase…

Phil Franklin

Management

It was 1 million shares actually.

Meenal Sethna

Management

Of which we repurchased 350 in the third quarter and we didn’t report anything for the fourth quarter.

Phil Franklin

Management

So, we would still have about 650 left on that authorization.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from Matt Sheerin from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Matt Sheerin

Analyst

Just a few follow-up questions for me. On the electronics business Gordon, you talked about distribution inventory is coming down a bit. Is that an implication that this multi quarter inventory correction is sort of played out right now, and do you see the sell-through finally stabilizing? Obviously you’ve seen a lot of reports about U.S. industrial continuing to be weakened. But -- so what’s your sense of the this cycle and how you’re headed into the first half?

Gordon Hunter

Management

Yes, it’s as you I described it. I think we’re quite comfortable with slight decrease but we’re seeing that book-to-bill is looking okay. We are not unduly worried about that the book-to-bill situations. I think the end markets are stable. It’s not great growth for sure. As Phil said, we are talking about low to mid single digit growth. But we certainly think that distribution situation, the inventory levels are the comfortable level right now.

Matt Sheerin

Analyst

And the margin that erosion that saw in the quarter, that was just seasonal I guess on the lower volumes and also the fact that -- I imagine the end of the quarter was very weak and you had that extra week of costs. And so you expect that margin to bounce back, as volumes come back in the March quarter, does that make sense?

Phil Franklin

Management

Yes, that’s right. I mean if you look at our margin, it was somewhat negatively impacted by the extra week, given how low the sales were in that extra week. If you look at it on a year-over-year basis, we’re still significantly better than last year’s fourth quarter. So, I think that -- but to your point, I would expect if we get our normal ramp up in revenues towards the end of the first quarter that we would see meaningful improvement in Q1 on a sequential basis and then that would continue to improve into Q2 and Q3.

Matt Sheerin

Analyst

Okay. And then just a couple of other ones. You’ve talked about, Gordon, the relay business on the industrial side and you didn’t talk much about the data center. Well that sounds like in previous quarters, that kind of like an opportunity to take that technology and see some growth opportunities within the data center. How is that going?

Gordon Hunter

Management

We’re still optimistic about that. I think we’ve talked about it quite a lot in the past and just don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. The data center electrical architectures are still evolving. So for us, we’re working with a lot of customers on developing new products and really trying to help with the whole design of the data center. So, we do look at that as a good opportunity for the future, but just don’t want to get ahead of ourselves too much on revenue in the short-term. But we think that’s a good long-term segment for us and we have good technology.

Matt Sheerin

Analyst

And just lastly, so on the tax rate, I saw the 22% guide for the year. As you look at closing of the TEL deal, do you think that’s going to change the blended tax rate much, give or take?

Phil Franklin

Management

It’s something that we’re still looking at; we don’t believe it’s going to have much of an impact. We think that with the way we’re going to be structuring that acquisition that revenue and the earnings from that business should have relatively close to the same tax rate as the rest of Littelfuse. They’re still some work to be done there. But I wouldn’t expect it to materially impact the tax rate, one way or the other.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tim Wojs from Baird. Please go ahead.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

I guess just a couple of housekeeping questions. Curious what your thoughts around or how your thinking about price cost in ‘16?

Phil Franklin

Management

Well, I think on the cost side, I mean we’re getting some tailwinds there from both currencies and commodities. So with some of the emerging market currencies where we manufacture, Philippines, Mexico and even China, those currencies have weakened against the dollar. So that’s going to help our cost position some. Commodity is kind of the same story. So, assuming current rates stay in place; that will be a tailwind for us.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

Okay. Is there any way to kind of -- go ahead. Sorry.

Phil Franklin

Management

Go ahead.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

I was just going to ask just a follow-up on that. Is there a way to kind of frame what percentage of cost are in low-cost Mexico, China, Philippines locations?

Phil Franklin

Management

Well, if you think about our manufacturing costs, the majority of the -- certainly the majority of the labor costs and overhead costs is in those local currencies, is in the three currencies I mentioned. If you think about the Philippines, China and Mexico, that makes up a pretty high percentage of our total manufacturing. So, it’s meaningful. Some of the purchased items we buy would still be in U.S. dollars. But there is meaningful local content there. So, I’m not going to give a number, because I don’t have it off the top of my head, but it’s reasonably significant.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

Okay.

Gordon Hunter

Management

On pricing, Tim, I think that one of the programs we’ve called out was our sensor business and trying to improve margins in our sensor business, both by cost reductions but also the sensor business, the second acquisition that we made in the automotive sensor world, the Hamlin business, we’ve mentioned few times came with quite a lot of legacy business at very low margins. We’ve been gradually getting out of that business and we’ve been investing heavily in new product development and a lot of the applications I talked about, our newer products that have been custom designed and much better margins. So, we are able to really improve the sensor business and make a very healthy business during the course of this coming year. For the electronics market, I think prices are going to be fairly stable. I think there is sort of an equilibrium in that market; it’s not that I think that there is any extra pressures in the electronics the end markets that should cause us to have anything different in pricing environment this year.

Tim Wojs

Analyst

And then just a question on free cash flow; historically it’s been a little bit higher than earnings. Is there anything as we can kind of think about 2016 that would deviate from what we’ve seen historically in terms of free cash flow conversion?

Phil Franklin

Management

I can’t think of anything off the top of my head. You are going to see some modest working capital increases, just to support the higher sales levels. CapEx is going to be similar to maybe slightly lower than prior year. So, we should see cash flow increase probably pretty close to commensurate with net income.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gary Prestopino from Barrington. Please go ahead.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

Most of my questions have been answered, but Phil, could you quantify just how much of currencies impacted your EPS in 2015?

Phil Franklin

Management

No, I really can’t quantify it. We track it but it shows up in so many different ways and so many different parts of the P&L, their balance sheet impacts, their cash flow impacts. If you look at in the early part of the year, it was a headwind with the significant weakening of the euro that we saw. As we got into the latter part of the year, we started to get some significant offsets to that as the Mexican peso or the Philippine peso and the RMB all weakened which were all favorable for us. So, net-net on currency, I think we -- probably if you looked at it for the year, we were close to neutral and then we got some tailwind certainly from the commodity pricing.

Gary Prestopino

Analyst

And then net-net, what is your exposure to the euro?

Phil Franklin

Management

So, if you look at it, we do about -- 20% of our revenue is in Europe, the majority of that -- the vast majority of that is in euros. And we have some cost in euros but very little of our manufacturing cost is euro based. So, we have a pretty significant long position there. But to get -- if you look at 20% of our revenue and we probably have maybe a third of that in euro based costs, that will give you approximate long euro position.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our last question comes from Shawn Harrison from Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Just two follow-ups for me. So, within the electrical space for the year, I understand you said there will be a good bounce back. But just wondering what about the first quarter or the first half, given that 2015 the comp is pretty low, so how should we think about the first half of the year in particular?

Phil Franklin

Management

I don’t think that the first half is going to be that much different than the rest of the year. Yes, there may be some easier comps. But if you kind of anchor a range off the fourth quarter and account for the fact that we had an extra week there, we would expect kind of a normal seasonal pattern through the year, which would be -- things would start to ramp up at the end of Q1 and continue to ramp well into the summer months and then start to tail off as we get into the last couple of months of the year. So, I don’t see anything that would -- at this point that would look much different than our normal seasonal pattern.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then within M&A, you said that you still have some in the pipeline. Just curious if there is just -- what your focus would be in terms of incremental M&A, is there certain market or industry that you look at?

Gordon Hunter

Management

It’s really pretty broad. We have opportunities in really all three of our segments. We have opportunities in our three major regions of the world. So, it’s pretty broad-based. And so, I wouldn’t bias it really towards one segment versus another at this point. We have a pretty full pipeline.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Gordon Hunter for closing remarks.

Gordon Hunter

Management

Thank you. This is Phil’s last conference call before he retires. Many of you worked with Phil over the years. And I know you join me in thanking him for his leadership and contributions to Littelfuse. So, thanks for joining us on today’s call. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.