Harmit Singh
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Chip, and welcome to everyone joining our call. My comments today will reference second quarter comparisons on a year-over-year basis in U.S. dollars, unless I indicate otherwise. Second quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, grew 5% on a reported basis and 9% in constant currency. Our growth was broad-based, and the contributions by region, channel, and category of the 9 points of constant currency growth were as follows. By region, 2 points of growth came from the Americas, 5 points from Europe, and 2 points from Asia. By channel, 4 points came from wholesale growth, 4 points from our company-operated stores, and 1 point from e-commerce. And by category, 3 points came from growth in men's bottoms, and the remaining 6 points came from women's and tops. Second quarter gross profit of $700 million represents an increase of $30 million, despite $25 million of unfavorable currency translation. Reported gross profit for the quarter grew 4%, slightly lagging revenue growth as second quarter gross margin of 53.3% declined 60 basis points. The margin decline was driven by unfavorable currency impact of 100 basis points as well as product investment. These were partially offset by margin benefits from our direct-to-consumer growth and lower discounted sales. Second quarter SG&A expense of $638 million was up 7% over prior year and increased as a percentage of revenues by 90 basis points, primarily reflecting the timing of spend for our 2019 advertising campaign that we told you about on our last call. The increase was partially offset by $19 million of favorable currency impact. Beyond the higher advertising spend, SG&A as a percent of revenues was flat to prior year as high investments in distribution capacity and direct-to-consumer expansion were fully offset by leverage on our base costs, something we expect will continue as our revenues grow. Second quarter adjusted EBIT of $82 million was down 4% on a reported basis but grew 3% on a constant currency basis. Constant currency adjusted EBIT margin of 6.2% declined 40 basis points due to the timing of advertising spend, which, as I noted, was up 90 basis points versus last year. Adjusted net income of $69 million was down 17% from last year's $83 million, reflecting lower net gains on our foreign exchange derivative and a stronger U.S. dollar. Adjusted diluted EPS for the second quarter of 2019 was $0.17. Let me repeat, $0.17, which is down 21% over prior year. The EPS decline was greater than adjusted net income decline due to the shares we issued in connection with our IPO. Note that adjusted EBIT, EBIT and adjusted net income are non-GAAP measures that exclude the impact of changes in fair value on our previously cash settled stock-based compensation awards as well as $29 million in IPO-related costs, inclusive of the $25 million underwriters' fee we paid on behalf of the selling shareholders. Please refer to our press release for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we used, including adjusted EBIT and adjusted net income. Now I'll share more detail on the second quarter results of our 3 regions in constant currency, unless I state otherwise. In the Americas, net revenues grew 3% on a reported basis and 4% on a constant currency basis, reflecting an increase across both channels. Wholesale growth of 2% was driven by strong performance in the region's international markets. Direct to consumer growth of 9% was driven primarily by the expansion of our company-operated retail network and higher e-commerce revenue. Our largest market, the U.S., was up 1%, as direct-to-consumer growth of 7% driven by e-commerce in new doors offset a 2% decline in U.S. wholesale. The U.S. wholesale decline was attributable to the impact of the bankruptcies and door closures that some of our customers have experienced over the last year as well as a decline in discounted sales to the off-price channel, reflecting that we're increasing -- that we're carrying substantially healthier inventory in comparison to the prior year. We will remain focused on optimizing execution in the U.S. wholesale channel going forward, but we do expect ongoing pressure for the remainder of the year due to a weak department store environment, continued door closures and pressure on our customers' open-to-buy budgets. The U.S. market is unlike any other in the world due to the dominance of wholesale, but our opportunity is to continue to diversify across channels, products, genders and customers as we are doing elsewhere. Operating income for the full Americas region grew 5% on both reported and constant currency basis as higher net revenues and higher gross margins were partially offset by direct-to-consumer expansion and the planned increase in advertising. We are pleased with the momentum that continues in Europe. Against the backdrop of geopolitical volatility, including Brexit, bankruptcies of a few wholesale customers in the U.K. and weakening economies, the region posted net revenue growth of 9% on a reported basis and 18% in constant currency, and this was on the back of 19% constant currency growth a year ago. The revenue growth this quarter was again broad-based across genders, channels, markets and product categories. Wholesale grew 14% and direct-to-consumer was up 22%. The strong direct-to-consumer growth was driven by higher traffic and conversion rates in existing stores in addition to new company-operated stores and e-commerce growth of 28%. Levi’s men's bottom growth was strong, up 18%, and women's continues to perform with double-digits growth in both tops and bottoms. The region's operating income grew 10% on a reported basis and 22% on a constant currency basis, reflecting the net revenue growth and a higher gross margin from a shift towards a direct-to-consumer channel, partially offset by higher direct-to-consumer and distribution cost and an increase in advertising and promotion. In Asia, net revenues were up 6% on a reported basis and 12% in constant currency. Traditional wholesale, company-operated brick-and-mortar and e-commerce each grew double digits, supported by higher traffic in the region. Most markets grew double digits, with the biggest dollar contribution coming from Levi’s men's bottom, which grew 10% over prior year. China's revenues grew again on strong performance of company-operated stores and e-commerce channels, and we continue to make progress in that critical market, though we still have more work to do in the franchise channel over the next year. The reasons -- the region's operating income grew 4% on a reported basis and 15% on a constant currency basis, reflecting the net revenue growth and SG&A leverage, partially offset by low gross margin, reflecting higher product cost. With two quarters behind us, I'll now review our year-to-date results. First half revenues grew 6% on a reported basis and 10% on a constant currency basis, reflecting broad-based growth across all 3 regions. Global wholesale grew 7%, while global direct-to-consumer was up 14%, both in constant currency. We have further diversified the business: international is now 58% of total revenues; direct-to-consumer is 39%; women's is 32%; and tops is 21%. Gross margin of 54% for the first half of the year was down 40 basis points, primarily driven by 90 basis points of unfavorable currency impact. The currency-neutral margin expansion primarily reflected direct-to-consumer growth, which more than offset margin pressure from product investments. Our first half SG&A rate of 44.4% declined 30 basis points from prior year despite higher direct-to-consumer investment, reflecting leverage on our base cost. As a percentage of revenues, advertising spend was in line with prior year, as we discussed last quarter. First half adjusted EBIT of $288 million grew 8% on a reported basis and 16% on a constant currency basis, and adjusted EBIT margin expanded 20 basis points on a reported basis and 60 basis points on a constant currency basis. Dollars in margins were benefited from the higher revenues and SG&A leverage. Our first half adjusted net income of $220 million grew 32%, reflecting the $22 million adjusted EBIT increase as well as the fact that last year we recorded a $38 million tax charge on undistributed foreign earnings in connection with the U.S. tax law change. Adjusted diluted EPS for the first half of 2019 was $0.55, which is up 27% over prior year, again, reflecting some increased dilution from first half adjusted net income growth due to the shares were issued in connection with our IPO. On to balance sheet and cash flows. In dollar terms, inventory was up 6% compared to a year ago, which is in line with revenue growth. Year-over-year inventory growth has steadily come down over the last two quarters, from 16% at year-end and 11% in -- at Q1, reflecting the deliberate measures we have taken in recent quarters. Accordingly, our inventory is very healthy headed into the second half of the year. Total available liquidity at quarter end was more than $1.7 billion, comprised of cash of $861 million, short-term investments of $80 million and $806 million available under our credit facility. The higher cash balance reflects the proceeds from our recent IPO. Net debt at the end of the second quarter was $82 million, down from $359 million last year, and our leverage ratio declined to 1.4% compared to 1.5% a year ago. Cash from operations for the first six months of 2019 of $162 million was $66 million lower than the first 6 months of 2018. The decrease primarily reflects our inventory build at the end of 2018. Higher payments in Q1 2019 were employee incentive compensation earned on our 2018 performance, and the $25 million underwriters' fee we paid on behalf of the selling shareholders in our IPO. These uses of cash were partially offset by lower contributions to our pension plan, which we funded last year before the new U.S. tax law went into effect. Adjusted free cash flow of $39 million for the first 6 months of 2019 represents a $42 million decrease compared to the first 6 months of 2018. This is primarily due to the $66 million decline in cash from operations, I noted a moment ago, $16 million higher capital expenditure, and our first half dividend payment of $55 million, which was $10 million higher than last year. With the first half of the year behind us, we are updating our full year guidance in constant currency. Recall, we have been guiding full-year revenue growth in the mid-single digits. We now expect to deliver at the high end of that range. Growth will be broad-based, with all regions and channels growing. While underlying business trends remain positive, they're a few reasons we expect second half sales growth to moderate relative to the first half, particularly in the United States. First, the lack of a Black Friday in Q4, which we expect will adversely impact the second half by roughly 100 basis points. Additionally, we anticipate that pressure in the wholesale channel will adversely impact us by roughly 200 basis points in the second half due to the bankruptcies and door closures since a year ago, the overall softening, U.S. wholesale environment and the lower off-price channel sales, reflecting our healthier inventory position. We reaffirm our expectation that gross margin and SG&A as a percentage of revenue will both be slightly up on a constant currency basis, primarily reflecting continued growth and investment in the direct-to-consumer channel. And given our strong first half performance, we now expect constant currency adjusted EBIT margin to be slightly up to prior year in the range of 10 basis points. This is despite an adverse full year impact of 25 basis points due to the absence of Black Friday. Finally, we now expect the lower effective tax rate for the full year of around 21%. With respect to currency, we anticipate that the unfavorable currency translation impact to revenue and adjusted EBIT will be much less significant in the second half of the year. We now expect full year unfavorable impacts of 250 and 400 basis points to our revenues and adjusted EBIT growth rates, respectively. Before turning to Q&A, I want to take a moment to discuss the potential impact of tariffs. Tariffs have been on again, off again recently, and it's difficult to predict what the future holds for tariff policy. But as we have previously communicated, we have taken steps to insulate our business from the long-term negative impact of these kind of measures. Should additional tariffs be enacted on imports to the U.S. from China and Mexico, we can mitigate the financial impact to our business over the near term. With that, we'll take your questions.