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Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU)

Q2 2010 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 4, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the USEC Inc. second quarter conference call. At this time all participant are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure your host Steven Wingfield, Director of Investor Relations for USEC. Thank you Mr. Wingfield, you may begin.

Steven Wingfield

Management

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for USEC’s conference call, regarding the second quarter of 2010, which ended June 30, 2010. With me today are John Welch, President and Chief Executive Officer; John Barpoulis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Phil Sewell, Senior Vice President, Bob Van Namen, Senior Vice President and Tracy Mey, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. Before turning the call over to John Welch, I would like to welcome all of our callers as well as those listening to our webcast via the Internet. This conference call follows our earnings news release issued yesterday after the markets closed. That news release is available on many financial websites, as well as our corporate website, usec.com. We want to inform all of our listeners that our news releases and SEC filings including our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K are available on our website. We expect to file our quarterly report on 10-Q later today. A replay of this call also will be available later this morning on the USEC website. I would like to remind everyone that certain of the information that we may discuss on this call today maybe considered forward looking information that involves risk and uncertainty including assumptions about the future performance of USEC. Our actual results may differ materially from those of our forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual result to materially differ from those in our forward-looking statements is contained in our filings with the SEC including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports Form 10-Q. Finally, the forward-looking information provided today is time sensitive and is accurate only as of today, August 04, 2010. This call is the property of USEC and any redistribution, retransmission, rebroadcast of this call in any form without the express written consent of USEC is strictly prohibited. Thank you for your participation. And I now would like to turn the call over to John.

John Welch

President

Good morning. Thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter results. Over the course of the next few minutes, I will briefly discuss our financial results for the second quarter and our outlook for 2010. I will also address our update to DOE on the progress we’ve made in the recent months to deploy the American Centrifuge Technology and provide sufficient time for your questions. Taking a look at the bottom line for the quarter, we reported net income of $7.2 million compared to net income of $17.3 million in the second quarter of 2009. For the first half of 2010 we reported the net loss of $2.5 million. Our results in 2010 have been reduced by a one time charge of $6.5 million related to a change in tax treatment of Medicare reimbursements resulting from the health care legislation enacted earlier this year. Many of the activities we have undertaken to address DOE’s concerns about technical aspects of the American Centrifuge are expensed in the $52 million in Advanced Technology expenses in the six months period had the effect of reducing our net income. On the positive side the results in the six month period include other income of $20 million resulting from DOE’s contribution for continued ACP activities. Turning to our 2010 outlook yesterday we provided updated guidance for the year. Given our improved visibility on the spending pattern for the American Centrifuge project we added guidance for net income of approximately breakeven for 2010. The higher prices paid for fuel purchase from Russia over the last several years and higher electric power prices have increased our average inventory cost. The increases for these costs have been at a higher rate than the increase in average fuel price billed to customers. That has squeezed our gross…

John Barpoulis

Management

Thanks John and good morning everyone. Starting with the revenue for the second quarter, total revenue was $460 million, a decrease of $55 million or 11% from the same quarter last year. SWU sales made up the majority of revenue totaling $331 million which was also down 11% over the same period last year. In the six month period, total revenue was $804 million, a decrease of $216 million or 21%. SWU revenue in the first half of the year was down 25%. Those who have followed USEC for a while know that our revenues can swig significantly from quarter-to-quarter and in some cases year-to-year. In the first six month period of 2010, SWU volume was 28% lower than the same period of 2009, but we have updated our guidance for the year and we now think that SWU volume will be down about 10% compared to last year. As SWU contract signed in recent years at higher prices and with price adjusters become a larger portion of our backlog, we are seeing an increase in average prices billed to customers. In the first half of 2010 average prices billed to customers rose 3% compared to the same period last year. Uranium revenue was $85 million in the first half of 2010, which was a decrease of $39 million compared to the same period in 2009. Both uranium prices and volumes sold declined. Uranium market prices declined in 2009 and have been trading at a low $40 a pound for the past few months. However, we have seen an up tick in the past month and the price indicators for uranium were at $46 a pound early this week. Finally, revenue from the US government contract segment in the six month period was $122 million, an increase of $25 million…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies & Co. Please state your question. Amanda Sigouin - Jefferies & Co.: Good morning. This is Amanda Sigouin on for Laurence. First a question on the better volume outlook for this year. Is this entirely due to pulling demand forward from 2011 and does this mean that we should expect less of recovery in volumes in 2011?

Bob Van Namen

Analyst · recovery in volumes in 2011

This is Bob Van Namen. It is partially due to the acceleration of orders and partially due to customer movements and so it’s a combination depending on when our customers have the need for the low and mixed uranium, they might ask us for orders or we might go and ask them. So it’s a combination of the two and we are not providing any guidance on 2011 at this point. But we would look to do so in the normal course of our future calls. Amanda Sigouin - Jefferies & Co.: Okay and regards to the additional costs for the ECPs that are not included in the $2.8 billion. That could increase the scope of the project you mentioned the financing expense and the project contingency and a couple of others. Can you give any detail around these expenses and the magnitude that these could potentially present?

John Barpoulis

Management

John and I will take a shot at this. Let me take them one at a time. Overall project contingency, you are correct and we said that the $2.8 billion estimate is a snapshot at this point, reflecting our work with suppliers. We are currently evaluating appropriate level of overall project on a contingency and as you would expect that takes into account the level of risk in the estimate and in each of the specific areas and it also is a function of the maturity of the project. We are working towards fixed price or cost limit agreements with suppliers and the overall contingency will ultimately reflect those terms and conditions. John?

John Welch

President

John I will take the stab at the other two Amanda. I think with respect to the spending from now until financial closing, I think we’ve recognized that the timing ultimately to the objectives of conditional commitment and financial close is uncertain but it’s likely to be several months. For the first half of the year, we spent about $52 million of ACP expenditures and capitalized about $64 million and also reflected the benefit of the $45 million of support from DOE and the $90 million profit agreement through other income. With respect to our outlook we mentioned that we foresee expensing about $110 million on ACP and incurring capitalized costs of about $100 million. So one can get a sense for our expectations for this year. Also of notice that the scope under the profit agreement is through the end of this calendar year as well. So from that information one can develop a rough range but I always highlight that it’s very much subject to our continued progress on ACP, cash flow available liquidity and our timing expectations for events that we see forthcoming. So we would certainly look to financially ramp down spending as necessary to leave within our means and then also to the extent that we see the ability to hit those milestones. There are certainly critical path items that we would like to ramp up in order to move forward and advance our schedule on ACP. So, that provides certainly a fair amount of uncertainty with respect to any longer term views on that and our 10-Q has a significant amount of information on our spending as well and then last with respect to financing costs and financial assurance ultimately we’ve recognized that there is an uncertainty within those estimates, credit subsidy costs and the actual cost of realized sources of funding are uncertain and are key drivers to some uncertainty in those areas and while we have a pretty specific decontamination and decommissioning plant for American Centrifuge and ultimately the amount of financial assurance and any cash posted to that that we need to provide is uncertain as well and so that leads to additional uncertainty on that item. But to the extent that we do see additional certainty in those areas we’ll be updating our outlook. Amanda Sigouin - Jefferies & Co.: Okay and thus regarding the additional financing needed to complete the project beyond the $2 billion from the DOE, I just wanted to make sure if this is clear. Is it something that you think the DOE will need to see you have in hand or before they approve the $2 billion loan guarantee or that could be coming half and faster to closing.

John Welch

President

I think that they need to be comfortable with the plan and that is certainly something that we expect to discuss with them in diligence. We certainly do need to have the kind of commitment or demonstrate that the capital is available at the time of closing.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from line of Gabriela Bis with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.

Gabriela Bis - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Gabriela Bis with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

So just to follow-up on that question what is your expectation of timing for the DOE, the closing of the, I guess the financial closing of the DOE loan guarantee and then can you walk us through the steps that are necessary to get there.

John Welch

President

Sure Gabby. We expect that DOE in the next step will review our update and recommence due diligence on our application focusing on the concerns that they raised last summer. We certainly plan to work with the DOE loan guarantee program office staff and their technical, financial, and legal advisers regarding the merits of our application, and the new information that we are providing. The next formal step in the process is the conditional commitment and certainly as the name implies the conditional commitment will come with conditions. The period between the conditional commitment being offered and financial closing could be several months and so with respect to timing it’s a difficult to say until we have commenced discussions with the loan guarantee office and have a sense for what those conditions could be.

Gabriela Bis - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Gabriela Bis with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

And the second question is you mentioned that there were three main contributors to the increase in budget for the ACP from about if I recall correctly $3.5 billion which was the earlier estimate to now closer to $5 billion. So I was wondering if you can provide a breakdown of how much of the increase was related to these three items. The demobilization and remobilization, the costs related to the additional design work and the cost related to the maturity of the scope of the project.

John Welch

President

Gabby I don’t think we are prepared at this point to provide say a precise dollar amount associated with each of those drivers. We’ve recognized that as we are working through our estimates with the suppliers heading towards updating our agreements with those suppliers that in our discussion those were the key drivers and those were the most significant drivers of the difference and the other thing and again I would emphasize is that the number that we are providing is reflective of our negotiations with the suppliers and what we are seeking to do here is that our investors and we’ve consistently being asked about is ultimately how much will it cost to complete the commercial plant. And so over the past several months we’ve been working with suppliers to update that estimate and so the information is based on those discussions.

Gabriela Bis - Goldman Sachs

Analyst · Gabriela Bis with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question

If I understand you correctly I think you mentioned before that this is an estimate basically assuming that financial commitment is at the end of this year did I understand that correctly.

John Welch

President

No, this estimate is from the point of financial closing forward when we would expect to remobilize activities and it is an estimate of what it will cost to complete the plant. So it’s from the point of financial closing forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of George Caffrey with Miller Tabak. Please state your question.

George Caffrey - Miller Tabak

Analyst · Miller Tabak. Please state your question

The other investors which you are speaking to potential investors you mentioned I think a Japanese export agencies and the like, are they requiring that you have received an answer from the DOE and/or requiring funding from the DOE before making investment or might they invest prior to that and then secondly the nature of the investments that you are talking to them about are they more equity like or are they more debt like.

John Barpoulis

Management

What I would emphasize George is that those discussions are at a very early stage that it is certainly linked to our work and relationship with Toshiba and at this point we look to historically those entities have provided primarily debt but they provided a mix of capital very much depending on the project and the credit aspects of the project. So with respect to the nature of the capital very early in the process with respect to the nature of the discussions the debt and equity we’ve covered George and I’m sorry I forgot the other part.

George Caffrey - Miller Tabak

Analyst · Miller Tabak. Please state your question

Well, the other had to do with the timing relative to DOE. Might they be willing to commit an advance of anything from the DOE.

John Barpoulis

Management

I’m sorry on that response certainly the Japanese export credit agencies are looking to the US government and to DOE in their support of the project and so I think it would be highly unlikely that they would look to provide any capital in advance of closing on the DOE loan guarantee. Our view is that there would be a concurrent closing.

George Caffrey - Miller Tabak

Analyst · Miller Tabak. Please state your question

And I’m not true that this was quite (asked) this way, but when would you expect to hear something not necessarily a commitment but some response to your application from the DOE.

John Barpoulis

Management

Well, certainly George, we would expect to begin those details reviews with the Department of Energy in the near term and as John mentioned there’s both.

George Caffrey - Miller Tabak

Analyst · Miller Tabak. Please state your question

Near term meaning the next month.

John Barpoulis

Management

We would hope to engage them as quickly as possible but technical review and discussions, we would expect that to initiate very quickly. And in parallel bringing together financial advisers legal advisers, we would expect that to start fairly quickly. I mean one of the things that we can assure you that as we progress down those discussions with the Department of Energy we’ll provide you updates on that. But we would expect the full due diligence very similar to what we went through last year, but again this is an update. So you would likely reengage the independent engineer person to review how we’ve addressed all of their issues and then reengage with the financial adviser for how we’ve addressed the financial concerns that were anticipated last year. We would think that process could move along fairly briskly but we are really not providing any guidance when we would expect that from a timing standpoint.

George Caffrey - Miller Tabak

Analyst · Miller Tabak. Please state your question

Okay, thank you and then one sort of top of the treetops question in Urenco having opened facility here in the States and Areva contemplating opening one, can you just comment in general how this might affect your plans in the future if at all?

John Barpoulis

Management

Well, when I think about the opening of Urenco facility and the desire of Areva to build a plant in Ohio are both indicative of how robust the market is for enriched uranium and again you have capacity being added that is being added in the near term to replace the capacity of the Georges Besse I, the French gaseous diffusion plant and the anticipated replacement of our gaseous diffusion plant. So the first phase is really a replacement of capacity and then you have building capacity through really deal with the market itself. We have 59 reactors that are under construction today, about 20 of those will actually come into operation by the end of 2011. So there is very much, the next phase is the growth and demand. The other thing I want to come back to and cover on the replacement of capacity is the other thing that this capacity is meant to address is the end of the Megatons to Megawatts program in 2013. So you have the transition away from gaseous diffusion to centrifuge technology and need for capacity and the need to replace that Russia material in the marketplace and then clearly over the long term that is projected even in the most pessimistic case, about a 30% increase in demand for enriched uranium by 2025.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Paul (Clegg) with Mizuho Securities. Please state your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thanks. You have already talked about this credit bit but I thought would lob in one more on the Japanese credit export opportunity. I know it’s early, but in your preliminary discussions if you can get a sense or if it’s too early, it’s too early. Is the size of funding that might be available through that opportunity sufficient to meet your needs pass the loan guarantee plus the strategic investors and if not can you kind of for my edification talk a little bit again about what the backup plans are?

Bob Van Namen

Analyst · recovery in volumes in 2011

Paul with respect to size that’s certainly our objectives and I think again at this point the discussions are I think too early to discuss sizing at amounts and ultimately it will be a reflection of our total needs and uses and their abstract capacity and so I will need to differ on that until we have more information and with respect to backup plans I think that certainly our expectation is to work with Toshiba on the Japanese export credit agency as we see that as a very interesting opportunity for us and then to the extent that in addition of course to our external capital we certainly will be looking to the cash flow that is generated by internal operations but to fund additional investments as well as one of the advantages of the modular construction is that the plant will be generating SWU and generating cash during its startup period and that’s also a component of funding for total capital cost.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Bob and just a clarification on that point I’ve been listening to stories for a while so I want to just make sure I understood the terminology, when you talk about initial commercial operations I think the term you use is 18 months to 24 months. Is that for first commercial (fuel) production and then the 36 months is a modular build up period.

Bob Van Namen

Analyst · recovery in volumes in 2011

That’s right. It’s for the initial production of the first cascades that come online and then what we’re characterizing as full, some may have seen it as full production that ultimately is the 16 trends or the output from the two existing process buildings that we’re looking to fill out.

John Welch

President

And just to confirm we are getting commercial usable materials from those initial cascades as we build them up.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Welch, there are no further question at this time. I would like to turn the floor over back to you for any closing comments.

John Welch

President

Well, thank you all for participating in the call this morning. We’re pleased to report on the significant progress that we’ve made in recent months. And we stand ready to answer any questions from the loan guarantee office as we seek an expedited review of our update. I will be presenting the USEC’s story next Tuesday at the Jefferies Global Industrial Conference in New York and I look forward to seeing many of you there. We appreciate your support, your interest and your continued investment in USEC. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and Gentlemen this does conclude today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.