Stuart A. Miller
Analyst · Barclays
Okay, good. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our First Quarter 2012 Update. I'm joined here as always by Bruce Gross, our Chief Financial Officer; Diane Bessette, our Vice President and Treasurer; Dave Collins, our Controller. We also have Rick Beckwitt, our President; Jon Jaffe, Chief Operating Officer; and Jeff Krasnoff, CEO of Rialto. I'm going to give some overview remarks both on the economy and the housing market and on Lennar in particular, and then I'm going to turn it over to the management team to give additional background in detail. After we open the phone lines, as always, we'd like to ask that you limit your question to just one question, one follow-up please, so that we can be as fair as possible to all. So as I sit here today, I'm really pleased with our solid first quarter 2012 operating results, and what they represent relative to the housing market in general and to Lennar in particular. Our first quarter results reflect another quarter of confirmation that both the housing market and the overall economy are stabilizing, and that a very real trend is beginning to take shape. They also demonstrate that our operating team is executing extremely well in a complicated environment. I previewed in our third and fourth quarter conference calls that we were beginning to see evidence of a genuine turn in the residential housing market, and this could be a harbinger of market stability. Last quarter, I was feeling somewhat more confident that the market was, in fact, changing, and this quarter marks further evidence that stabilization is really taking hold. The consistent message is that the general environment is different now than it's been in the past many years. There are discernible fundamental shifts appearing in the home market, and there are empirical data points that are, to-date, confirming that the market is showing real signs of stability. With that said, and as we saw from last week's reported national sales starts and permits numbers, yesterday's pending home sales numbers and today's Case-Shiller Index, that the housing market is not yet in full recovery. In fact, the stabilization process after a full 7-year decline in housing is rocky and erratic and is certainly not yet broad based. Let me tell you a little bit about how we are thinking about the things that we're seeing in the field versus the national numbers that are being reported. Four important themes are driving housing stabilization; 3 are demand-related and 1 is supply-related. First, today's consumer is looking at the home purchase differently than in the past years. The home purchase is no longer a place to invest savings in order to ride a wave of price increases. Instead, today's buyers are looking for real value. They are finding real value in for-sale housing. We know that home prices and volumes are low and interest rates are at historical lows and affordability is extremely high today. Today's consumers are beginning to realize that housing presents an undeniable value proposition, and we're hearing this from them in the field. Accordingly, we're experiencing more traffic in our welcome home centers and customers are actively discussing their desire to find a way to purchase and capitalize on this moment in time. They're starting to feel pressure not to miss this moment, and that's being reinforced by discussion with family and friends, buying and owning a home is no longer taboo at the dining room table. And in the field, we're witnessing instances where customers returning for a second visit are finding that the home that they wanted is sold. Second trend, today's housing consumers also seeking to avoid the rental market. The fully loaded cost of ownership is lower in most desirable markets than comparable rental rates. We've carefully studied this trend and have found that while this might not show up in national statistics, in local competitive markets, principal, interest, taxes, insurance, community association, lawn care are all together lower than the competitive rental market. Today, for-sale housing represents an excellent value proposition on a pure monthly payment basis versus renting. Additionally, consumers are looking for an alternative to the annual repricing inherent in the rental market. Rental prices are high, and they've been moving up. Today's consumer is looking for living cost stability, as well as a safe and stable place to raise a family. They're looking to reconsider the rental lifestyle, where rental rates have been rising and are likely to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Third trend, improvement in employment and consumer confidence has translated into the end of negative household formation. The trend of children moving home and elderly parents moving in with children is at least slowing and may be reversing. Over time, this trend will be an even more powerful driver of demand increases. Now some have suggested that the gains in the first part of the year might be weather-related, since it's been abnormally warm in the North. We, however, see strength across our platform, including warmer markets where weather is not a factor, and where warmth in the North might even be a negative to sales in the South. It seems that the improvements derive from fundamental shifts. On the supply side, concerns remain about the overhang of REO and foreclosure inventory. As I noted earlier, market improvement is uneven across cities, states and the country. In the field, we are seeing pockets of activity develop across the country, not region- or state-specific. These pockets are developing in many areas that are starting to recover. These are geographic pockets that are defined by their desirable location, driving the absorption of REO, foreclosure and defaulted loan inventory. Supply is running short in these areas and demand is pushing prices higher in some instances or is pushing the boundaries of desirability outward in other instances. The broader market, outside these pockets of activity, remain weak. While at present, these pockets are isolated, they are growing in both size and number. It's likely that national numbers are not reflecting these themes because they incorporate and average in their data the secondary and tertiary markets that are not yet in recovery and do not affect our competitive landscape. But the more desirable housing markets are experiencing a fundamental change as foreclosure inventories have been absorbed, fewer distressed investor sales are being made and consumers recognize the value proposition. Overall, we've seen that demand is growing, and in carefully selected markets, supply is limited. Nevertheless, demand still remains constrained or is being held back by the mortgage qualification standards and processes that have been overcorrected by the severity of the downturn, but demand is growing and customers are looking to find ways to qualify for loan and waiting for some loosening of credit standards. Turning now to Lennar specifically. In our first quarter, we saw a fundamental improvement in all of the building blocks that define our homebuilding and Financial Services operations, while Rialto continued to build and augment its blue-chip operating platform. Our management team is executing on all fronts. On the homebuilding front, sales continued a significant pattern of improvement, growing 33% over first quarter 2011, and that compares trend-wise to a 20% year-over-year improvement in the fourth quarter of last year. Our improved sales year-over-year and sequentially come from a fairly flat community count, which means that our sales per community are improving. Perhaps most notably, these sales improvements are not the result of unusual sales promotions or discounts as reflected by our improved gross and net margins. Post-impairment gross margins improved from 20% to 20.9%, while post-impairment net margin improved 3.6% to 6%. We are maintaining and even growing margins while expanding sales. These margin gains are reflective of a fundamentally sound sales program that is not compromising margin to gain sales, but instead is maintaining price stability, reducing incentives and beginning to show overhead leverage as volume improves. Additionally, we're not pushing to grow the quantity of active communities, but are more focused on the quality of our active communities. Accordingly, we have invested cash aggressively to position our company with high-quality communities in A locations that enable us to produce solid margins and leverage overhead. This affords us the position to be able to manage our business with carefully designed value-oriented product and efficient production and marketing program under our Everything's Included branding and a rightsized overhead structure. As we look ahead to future quarters, our strategy of focusing on high margins in well-positioned communities will prove to be the engine that drives SG&A operating leverage that will produce strong bottom line earnings. Rick and Jon will describe our homebuilding operations strategy in greater detail in just a minute. Our Financial Services segment also performed very well in our first quarter. It generated operating earnings of $8.3 million versus $1.2 million last year. Earnings here derive from a consistent mortgage and title program that reports through our Chief Financial Officer, Bruce Gross, who will further describe how this important segment is not only profitable, but is providing consistency and dependability in a difficult mortgage environment. Finally, our Rialto segment has also produced profits in the first quarter as it continued to grow its underlying business. While Rialto earnings have declined year-over-year, from $11 million last year to $9.4 million this year, we have noted that Rialto profits have the general tendency to be less predictable on a quarter-by-quarter basis as we carefully manage the sale and resolution of assets to maximize value. We remain very enthusiastic about the earnings power in the assets we've already purchased, and we're certain that future quarters will demonstrate the investment and earnings power of the overall Rialto machine. As I noted last quarter, Rialto completed its money raise for its first fund and ended with a $700-million pool of capital to invest in core assets to drive its future. To date, about 70% of that fund is invested and the pipeline for new investments is very strong. This fund will likely be fully invested by year end, and we will soon begin working on the capital raise for fund #2. As we look ahead, Rialto will continue to be a solid earnings contributor for Lennar and will begin to return cash to corporate as it is now investing self-generated funds. Jeff Krasnoff will give additional detail on Rialto's operations in just a few minutes as well. All in all, our first quarter has been an excellent start for 2012 for Lennar as we've navigated the turbulent waters of the housing market in the U.S. economy seeking a bottom and stability. Our strategy has been to refine and position our company for recovery and remain profitable while we stay patient. This strategy has worked well for us. All of the segments of our company are now extremely well positioned, as you will now hear from our operating team. As I look ahead to the future quarters, I remain cautiously optimistic that we are seeing a real bottom form, and that we will begin to see a real recovery. National statistics and news will give us mixed signals as we move through the year as they represent a compendium of all of the best and the worst markets around the country. But I feel that stabilization and recovery will emanate from the most desirable markets and spread slowly outward over the next years. Lennar is positioned with a strong balance sheet in the right markets, with an exceptional management team and a well-constructed strategy to perform solidly as market conditions continue to improve. Now I'd like to turn over to Rick.