Mitch Dolloff
Analyst · Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Okay, great John. So, for sure if you look at ‘18 versus ‘17 or what happened in ‘17 started off the first half of the year really strong and then started to slide a little bit in the second quarter and then significantly in the third and fourth quarter particularly in North America. So, that does as you mentioned creates pretty tough comps for us in Q1 and Q2, we think that gets better in Q3 and Q4. If you look at the long term forecast, so call it at ’17 to ‘20, ‘21 kind of outlook, we would see for the major markets, CAGR of a little over 1%, call it 1.4%, 1.5%. And, for the globe, global market a little bit stronger maybe around 2%. The distinction for me the major markets North America, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, much larger volume, much higher content, you have faster growth in the developing markets on a lower unit volume based and also lower content. So, eventually benefit from that growth in the developing markets, but for sure the major markets have a bigger impact for us. And, what really bothers was significant disruption in North America last year, we look at the major markets, unit volumes was up around 1%, we see it for ‘18 forecast, we look at IHS production forecast is up a little bit from 1.2% to 1.4% and that’s kind of the trend going forward. So, we talk about a 1,000 basis points about the market, we are looking at something like 11% to 12% on average over the long term. So, you’re right to mention that, we look at our program, but at the same time we have programs falling off, our rate of wins significantly exceeds the rate of programs falling off and that’s what drives our confident to make this kind of prediction. I remember that we have good long term visibility, so when we’re winning award production generally starts about two years after the win or survives in other programs and then the program technically last around six years. So, we think about it as the series of curves that sort of build that we have good visibility, what’s coming off those occasionally surprises and what’s coming on and that’s been - how we run the business for the last several years. And, I think our track record shows that we’ve been able to deliver this.