Matt Flanigan
Analyst · Budd Bugatch with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Karl, and good morning, everyone. Well as you've already heard, fourth quarter earnings were impacted by an unusually high accrual related to our stock-based incentive compensation plans, which in total, represented $80 million or $0.08 per share. Approximately two-thirds of this cost was due to the significant increase in our relative TSR performance late in the year as our share price increased from approximately$35 to $43 during the fourth quarter. The remainder of the higher cost was driven by recent strong growth in operating margin improvement in many of our businesses. In accordance with GAAP, we record our incentive compensation accruals each quarter to reflect the related performance metrics. For the TSR-based incentive plan, we measure our TSR performance over three-year periods compared to an 320 member peer group. For the three-year measurement period that ended in 2014 our relative TSR through the end of September was at roughly the midpoint of the peer group. As a result we had accrued for our two and three quarter year assuming an estimated payout of approximately 71% of the incentive target. Our fourth quarter increase in share price and relative TSR moved us into the top third of the peer group and caused payout percentage to more than double. Consequently, all of the incremental cost for the entire three-year period occurred and was duly recognized in the fourth quarter. A significant adjustment was also required for the three-year period that will conclude in 2015. At the end of December, we were delivering top TSR performance for that measurement period as well. In 2014 our stock compensation expense for all programs totaled $48 million, nearly half of which was recognized in the fourth quarter. Our forecast for 2015 anticipates total cost of approximately $44 million at the current share price and assuming our relative TSR does not change. If our TSR moves into a lower performance level in relation to the peer group, then we will reduce our accruals for open measurement periods to reflect the corresponding lower payouts estimates. Now on to a few other topics. Operating cash flow was once again seasonally strong in the fourth quarter at $166 million. For the full year, we generated operating cash $382 million. We ended the year with working capital at an usually low 7.9% of annualized sales. The third and fourth quarter litigation accruals caused a sizeable increase in current liabilities by year end. Excluding this accrual, working capital was 10.3% of annualized sales. In November, we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.31 per share and 2014 marked our 43rd consecutive annual dividend increase at a compound annual growth rate of 13%. At yesterday’s closing price of $45.07, our current yield is 2.8%, which is one of the highest dividend yields among the 54 companies that comprise the S&P500's dividend aristocrats. We repurchased 700,000 shares of our stock in the fourth quarter at an average price of $41.14 and issued one million sales largely for employee option exercises. For the year, we repurchased 5.4 million shares at an average price of $33.76 and issued 3.9 million shares. Our financial base remains very strong and this gives us considerable flexibility when making capital and investment decisions. We entered the year with net debt and net capital at 31.5%, which is comfortably within our longstanding targeted range of 30% to 40%. In 2015, we again expect strong sales growth, which should lead to another year of record earnings per share from continuing operations. As we announced yesterday, we expect 2015 earnings from continued operations to be between a $1.90 and $2.10 per share. With improving demand, market share gains and recent acquisitions, sales from continued operations are expected to be $3.9 billion to $4.1 billion. This range represents a 3% to 8% increase versus our $3.78 billion of sales from continued operations in 2014. Based upon this guidance range, we currently expect a full year EBIT margin between 10.7% and 11.2%. We expect to again generate operating cash flow of approximately $350 million in 2015. Dividend should require about $170 million of cash and capital expenditure should approximate $120 million per year. We continue to make investments to support growth in business and product lines where sales are strong and for efficiency improvement and maintenance. Our incentive plans emphasize returns on capital, which include net fixed assets and working capital. This emphasis we believe helps ensure that we're efficiently utilizing our asset base and invest in capital dollars for the highest return potential exist. Consistent with our stated priorities for the use of excess cash flow, we will prudently buy back our stock, bearing in mind our level of cash generation other potential opportunities to strategically grow the company and the overall outlook for the general economy. We have a standing authorization from the Board to repurchase up to 10 million shares each year; however, no specific repurchase commitment or timetable has been established. We currently expect to issue between two million and three million shares in 2015, primarily from employee stock option exercises and repurchase an amount that at least offsets shares issued. With those comments, I'll turn it back over to Dave Haffner.