Jason Cardew
Analyst · your question.
Yes, I want to be careful not to get into two detail a discussion on 2023 and providing guidance, but I can share a couple of comments that should be helpful. One was the run rate as we exit the year. The other, I think if you look at our backlog, we announced a backlog for 2023 of [1.450 billion] and another 600 million in 2024. So, $2 billion of business rolling on over the next two years. We have seen a little bit of movement in the backlog number itself. This year lower volumes maybe slower ramp ups and some of the new programs that have launched. And so, we're 135 million lower this year on our backlog and we see a similar phenomenon next year where that backlog number is going to be a little bit lighter than what we had previously anticipated, but it'd still be a strong number for the company overall, particularly over that two-year period. I think 2 billion over 2023, 2024, so something that investors can expect to see. So, I think that that will provide a benefit. Our margins on our backlog are rolling on at or above segment margin targets in both seating the E-Systems. We expect that to continue and that will be a tailwind for next year. If you look at commodities, certainly we've seen, kind of a mixed bag. Steel in North America has come down by more than half from its peak. So, that's a positive. Europe steel has come down, but not nearly as much. So, a little more uncertainty around that. Copper has come down by $1 and so we should see a modest benefit from that next year, but on the oil based commodities, we're still seeing a lot of pressure there. So, foam chemicals, yarns, things like that resins, which impacts both segments. I think we'll continue to be a factor next year and while maybe not a headwind, it certainly won't be a tailwind as we look out to next year. You will see some benefit from the restructuring program we have in place, but as you highlighted, Colin, some of that is also reflected in our second half run rate. So, at this point, it's probably all we're comfortable sharing for next year. It's difficult to say, what's going to happen in the production environment, but as we highlighted in our prepared remarks and Ray talked about a moment ago, we're still seeing customers shut down on short notice. We're still seeing the effects of the chip shortage at our operations. And then lastly, I guess, foreign exchange, the strong U.S. dollar certainly going to weigh on revenues for next year. And I'm not sure as I look at the analyst expectations for next year that that's been factored in yet year-over-year that would likely be a bit of a headwind, particularly on the revenues, not so much on margins.