Jeff Vanneste
Analyst · Colin Langan with UBS. Your line is open
Thanks, John. Lear continued its positive momentum in the fourth quarter with strong sales growth and record core operating earnings. Sales in the fourth quarter were $4.7 billion, up 4% from a year ago and excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales grew 11%. Core operating earnings increased 28% to $359 million and margins were higher in both our business segments. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 41% to $3.20 per share. We continue to return cash to shareholders and I will be providing more detail on our share repurchases later in the presentation. Slide 6 highlights our financial performance for the full year. Sales were a record $18.2 billion, up 3% from a year ago. And excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales grew by 11%, significantly higher than the 2% increase in global production. Core operating earnings increased 25% to $1.31 billion and margins were higher in both our business segments. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 33% to $10.85 per share, reflecting our strong operating performance and the benefit of our share repurchase program. 2015 marked the sixth consecutive year of strong cash flow generation. And during this timeframe, Lear has generated approximately $3 billion of free cash flow. Lear was formally upgraded to an investment grade credit rating, reflecting our strong balance sheet, consistent cash flow generation and improved operating margins. Slide 7 shows vehicle production in our key markets for the fourth quarter and full year. In the fourth quarter, 22.8 million vehicles were produced globally, up 4% from 2014. For the full year, global vehicle production was a record 86.9 million units, up 2% from 2014. Production increased in all our major markets for both the quarter and full year. Slide 8 shows our reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2015. In the fourth quarter, pre-tax income before equity income, interest and other expense was $338 million, up $81 million from a year ago. And for the full year, pre-tax income, before equity income, interest and other expense, was $1.187 billion, up $258 million from 2014. Equity income was $18 million in the fourth quarter and $50 million for the full year with the increase in both periods primarily reflecting higher profitability at our joint ventures in China. Interest expense was $20 million in the fourth quarter consistent with last year. And interest expense was $87 million for the full year, up $19 million, reflecting debt incurred to finance the acquisition of Eagle Ottawa. Other expense was $8 million in the fourth quarter and $69 million for the full year both lower than the prior year, primarily reflecting lower foreign exchange impacts. Net income attributable to Lear was $235 million in the fourth quarter and $746 million for the full year. In 2014, the fourth quarter and full year reported net income benefited from one-time tax benefits totaling $97 million and $111 million respectively. Slide 9 shows the impact of non-operating items on our fourth quarter results. During the fourth quarter, we incurred $20 million of restructuring costs primarily related to census actions. Excluding the impact of these items, we had core operating earnings of $359 million, up $79 million from 2014. The increase in earnings reflects increased production on key platforms, the benefit of new business, the acquisition of Eagle Ottawa and favorable operating performance. Adjusted for restructuring and special items, net income attributable to Lear in the fourth quarter was $245 million and diluted earnings per share was $3.20, up 41% from 2014. Slide 10 provides the summary of free cash flow, which was $427 million in the fourth quarter and $831 million for the full year. Cash flow improved from our prior guidance primarily reflecting higher earnings, strong cash conversion, the timing of capital expenditures and cash restructuring costs. Slide 11 shows our adjusted margins in the fourth quarter. Total company adjusted margin was 7.6%, up 140 basis points from a year ago. In Seating, sales of $3.7 billion increased 7% from last year with adjusted earnings of $279 million, up $76 million or 37%. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales increased by 13%, reflecting the acquisition of Eagle Ottawa, improved production on key platforms, and the addition of new business. Adjusted Seating margins were 7.6%, up 170 basis points from a year ago. And the increase in margins primarily reflects the strong sales growth, including the impact of the Eagle Ottawa acquisition and favorable operating performance. In electrical, sales of $1 billion were down 5% from last year. But excluding the impact of foreign exchange, sales were up 4%, primarily reflecting improved production on key platforms and the addition of new business. Adjusted electrical margins improved to 14.1%, up 80 basis points from a year ago, reflecting strong operating performance and the benefit of new business. Slide 12 highlights our earnings growth trend. Since 2010, our operating earnings have increased at a 16% compounded annual growth rate. And over the last three years, our compounded growth rate was even faster at 20%. During both periods, our earnings growth rate was double the peer group average and over the last three years, our earnings have grown faster than any of our direct competitors. Over the last five years, we have doubled our operating earnings and increased our operating margin from 5.2% to 7.2%. Slide 13 provides a summary of the growth in our non-consolidated joint ventures. The vast majority of these JVs are located in China with key customers as our partners. These relationships provide unique growth opportunities. In 2015, we had $2.3 billion in sales at our non-consolidated joint ventures, which is about double our sales of $1.2 billion in 2010. Our equity earnings at these JVs also doubled from $24 million in 2010 to $50 million last year. We expect these JVs to continue to grow faster than the market and exceed $3 billion in sales by 2018 based on our 3-year non-consolidated sales backlog of $700 million. These joint ventures have become a significant part of our business in Asia and are a meaningful component of our earnings. Slide 14 highlights our track record of strong cash generation. The ability to generate free cash flow is the hallmark of Lear. And as I mentioned previously, we have generated approximately $3 billion in cash flow since the beginning of 2010. Our free cash flow yield of 11% is among the highest in the automotive sector and greater than our direct competitors. Slide 15 provides a snapshot of our cash, debt and pension and OPEB obligations. We have a very cost-effective capital structure with low borrowing costs and no significant debt maturities for the next 5 years. At the end of 2015, we had approximately $1.2 billion of cash and total liquidity of approximately $2.4 billion. Our unfunded pension and OPEB liabilities are $339 million as of December 31, 2015, which is down from a year ago. Substantially all of the U.S. plans are frozen or at close locations with no future benefit accruals. We are committed to maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet with sufficient liquidity and investment grade credit metrics. This strong capital structure provides Lear with significant financial resources and flexibility which will allow us to invest in our business and drive profitable growth. Slide 16 provides an update on our share repurchase program. In 2015, we repurchased 4.4 million shares for a total of $487 million, including $104 million in the fourth quarter. Since initiating the share repurchase program in 2011, we repurchased 35.2 million shares for a total of $2.4 billion. And including dividends, total cash returned to shareholders over the same time period is $2.7 billion. Our share repurchases represent a reduction of approximately 34% of our shares outstanding at the time we began the program. And the average price paid to repurchase shares over the life of the program is about $68 per share. At the end of 2015, we have remaining share repurchase authorization of $513 million, which expires on December 31, 2017. Slide 18 highlights our 2016 financial guidance. We are reconfirming our guidance, which includes sales and earnings growth and strong cash flow generation. Our sales are projected to grow and be in the range of $18.5 billion to $19 billion. Core operating earnings are projected to be in the range of $1.35 billion to $1.4 billion and free cash flow is expected to be approximately $800 million. Slide 19 shows our industry production assumptions by major markets for 2016 as compared to 2015. Global industry production is forecasted to grow by 3% to 89.7 million units in 2016. Our 2016 financial outlook is based on an average euro assumption of $1.10 per euro, which is down 1% from 2015. Slide 20 shows our financial outlook for 2016, which as I mentioned is unchanged from the guidance that we provided on January 12. Slide 21 shows our revenue walk for 2016. Our backlog for 2016 is approximately $800 million. Volume and mix is expected to increase revenue by an additional $400 million. Sales in 2016 are being negatively impacted by weakened foreign currencies, primarily related to the euro, lower commodities and pricing. Now I will turn it over to Matt for some final comments.