Earnings Labs

Liberty Global plc (LBTYB)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 18, 2022

$17.00

-2.02%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Liberty Global's Fourth Quarter 2021 Investor Call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global. And any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the expressed written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited. [Operator Instructions] Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com. After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. Page 2 of the slides details the company's safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectation with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed in the Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed forms 10-Q and 10-K, as amended. Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect any change in expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.

Michael Fries

Analyst

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We've got a lot of ground to cover, so I'm going to skip the intros and get right into it. As usual, we'll be referencing slides that have been posted on the website. So beginning with Slide 3, which introduces five key headlines for the past year. And before I get into these highlights, I'd just offer perhaps the most important takeaway here. In what has been an extremely challenging two years for everyone across industries and markets, we've been fortunate that our people, our networks and our business have performed really well. Over this period, we've retained and even expanded our talent pool despite hybrid working conditions. Our broadband and mobile networks delivered outstanding service despite massive increases in the demand for bandwidth. And for two years in a row, we've exceeded even our own internal budgets despite a global pandemic that's upended most industries. I just couldn't be prouder of our company and our operating businesses, and I think the results we'll be sharing today as well as the strategic plans that underlie our guidance and our path forward reflect that confidence and that enthusiasm. So consistent with those thoughts, you won't be surprised to have learned that we hit our 2021 guidance across our FMC portfolio as well as our group free cash flow target, which we actually raised last November on our Q3 earnings call. And supporting this financial performance is strong commercial momentum that we experienced across broadband and mobile services with the demand for connectivity continuing to exceed our expectations. Simply put, our FMC champions are delivering. We added over 1 million broadband and mobile subs in the year across our footprint with a solid fourth quarter. Convergence continues to drive higher sales and NPS…

Charles Bracken

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. I'm starting on a slide named Back to Stable and Growing Revenues. Full year 2021 rebased consolidated revenue growth for the group was 1.5%. Now in the U.K. market, Virgin Media-O2 saw revenue decline by 1.1% in the year on an IFRS pro forma basis as growth in consumer fixed was offset by declines in mobile and B2B fixed performance. . In Belgium, Telenet delivered 0.7% of revenue growth in 2021, driven by higher subscription revenue. And in Switzerland, Sunrise UPC delivered revenue growth of 0.5% in 2021 with higher consumer mobile and B2B revenues, partially offset by a decline in consumer fixed revenues. Finally, VodafoneZiggo continues to maintain revenue growth momentum, achieving an increase of 1.9% in the year and delivering an 11th consecutive quarter of revenue growth. Moving to the next slide. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA declined by 1.4% in the full year 2021, impacted by increased cost to capture in Switzerland. Without those costs, it would have been broadly flat. Virgin Media O2 EBITDA increased by 1% in 2021 on an IFRS pro forma transaction adjusted basis, including cost to capture costs of $81 million. Telenet achieved 1.2% growth in EBITDA in 2021 as its organic revenue growth was enhanced by cost discipline, with operating expenses remaining stable throughout the year. Sunrise UPC declined 1.8% in 2021, but did include $29 million of cost to capture. Excluding these costs, EBITDA was stable. And in the Netherlands, VodafoneZiggo posted a 2% increase in 2021, driven by strong revenue growth as well as good cost discipline. Moving to the next slide. At a group level, consolidated adjusted EBITDA less P&E additions declined 2.7% in 2021, with $126 million of cost to capture weighing on the full year performance. Virgin Media O2 saw IFRS pro forma transaction-adjusted EBITDA less…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Robert Grindle with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Robert, your line is open. And if you on mute please unmute your line.

Michael Fries

Analyst

You want to try another operator, we will come back Robert.

Operator

Operator

Yes, I will proceed with the next question. Our next question comes from the line of Polo Tang with UBS. Your line is open.

Polo Tang

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Yes him, thanks for taking the question. Just have a question in terms of U.K. footprint expansion. You made it clear that you're talking to financial partners about a deal, but can you comment on whether you've had any interest from strategic partners to be involved in the project? And also a number of potential financial partners already have existing fiber assets in the U.K., therefore, would you consider partnering with an existing old net?

Michael Fries

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Hi Polo, good questions, I guess the answer to them is, yes, we would and are in discussions with all of the above. I think the process that we've initiated here to seek out financial partners is the right next step. As you point out, there are a few involved today, but more importantly, plenty of capital and plenty of interested parties period. And we think our - this opportunity stands out as perhaps the best you're going to find in this market. Principally because it involves an existing operator like Virgin Media O2 that can pretty much guarantee utilization. And at some point, you could easily see it folding into our other 15 million homes. So I mentioned the 22 million-home footprint. Well, nobody - none of the altnets and none of the alternative providers are looking at a 22 million-home footprint. So I think it's the winning opportunity and platform, that's for sure. And you should assume we're talking to financial, strategic and perhaps even existing partners in the market.

Polo Tang

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

And can I ask a follow-up question in terms of your U.K. price rises? What's been the customer reaction to the 6.5% price increase and given that's lower than the 9.3% increase put forward by BT, do you maybe see scope to kind of gain market share?

Michael Fries

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

So far so good, but Lutz, do you want to address that? Lutz Schüler: Yes, so customer reaction on our price increase is as planned. So it is also a bit higher than the year before. But right, I mean, you see that we are operating on a very low churn. And the price increase from BT customers is just landing in the market, right. So it's too early to tell if there will be more churn and therefore more customers available, let's see.

Polo Tang

Analyst · UBS. Your line is open.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Wright with BofA. Your line is open.

David Wright

Analyst · BofA. Your line is open.

Thank you very much and I hope you guys can hear me. Yes, just maybe looking over to Holland and the guidance, the outlook for total funds like always, it's a little bit underwhelming, I hesitate to say that. I know it's a great business, but the guidance is a little bit underwhelming after some of the momentum we've maybe seen building. Could you just sort of talk us through how you're looking at that business? And why perhaps it's not really pushing ahead. And obviously, the question that I think you often get is could you guys look to perhaps own that business in totality? I think Vodafone has made it very clear that it's open to business on its on potential restructuring of its asset base right now. So, just some thoughts around VodafoneZiggo would be really appreciated? Thank you.

Michael Fries

Analyst · BofA. Your line is open.

Sure, sure, David. I'll just start on the second part of your question. As everybody would know, we've been in this JV for quite some time with Vodafone. They have been fantastic partners. I hope they would just say the same of us. We worked really well with management, and we've built together a business that has achieved pretty much everything we set out for it to achieve, solid and steady EBITDA growth, significant free cash flow and distributions to shareholders, a market-leading position in broadband and really B2C generally. And if you just look at 2021 and you compare VodafoneZiggo to KPN, I don't think there's a single metric with the exception of possibly the broadband additions where we have an outperformed KPN pretty impressively. So it's delivered everything we hoped it would. And it's, in our opinion, one of the best businesses in Europe for all those reasons. In terms of the guidance, listen it depends on which particular aspect of the guidance you're asking about. The cash distribution will be roughly equal to what we had last year. So that's a proxy for free cash flow; a little bit more CapEx as they intend to invest more significantly in both the mobile and fixed networks period, and that's pretty important. You should expect that, that's something all operators are focused on in competitive markets. So that would drive a slightly lower result in operating free cash flow, but they're making up for that in terms of the underlying free cash flow figure. And the EBITDA, stable to modest, is not surprising given a business that has to invest in both new products and new services as well as ensuring customers see them as the winning solution in the marketplace. It's a rational market but a competitive market. So we think it's the right guidance. And we think that the investment they're making in fixed and mobile is the right investment. And we think that their investment in customers, which leaves with critical in this market, is also the right investment. So we're at a bit of an inflection point in terms of what each party will do. I think you have to ask Vodafone what their intentions are. We're happy with the business. I think the management team is doing a fantastic job. Richie, the CFO is on the call. Do you want to add anything to the guidance point, Richie?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · BofA. Your line is open.

No, I think it's well said, Mike. And BT so it's not a structural, let's say issue. We are investing a lot to make sure we keep on being the winner in the Dutch market. I think it boils down to that.

Michael Fries

Analyst · BofA. Your line is open.

Yes smart investment.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Ratzer with New Street Research.

James Ratzer

Analyst · New Street Research.

Yes good morning Mike. So a couple of questions just coming back please, to the U.K. fiber joint venture. I think in the past, it had been talked about doing this at the Virgin O2 level, and it now looks as if you're shifting this to a parent company investment jointly with Telefonica. I was wondering kind of, firstly, why you are considering that change? And then secondly, as part of the agreement, has -- would Virgin O2 give any volume commitments to the new JV as an anchor tenant? And can you give us any indication on what wholesale rates the new joint venture would be looking to charge? Thank you.

Michael Fries

Analyst · New Street Research.

Yes, I mean I'll just quickly say on the second two points, that's all work in progress, and we haven't gone out with an official investment memorandum yet. That will happen shortly. So we're going to hold back on any specifics around wholesale commitments and pricing as we want to get deeper into the conversations with investors before that comes out. In terms of why this would be a partnership between Telefonica and Liberty Global with financial investors, it's our view that, that creates a fair amount of flexibility for all parties. So with respect to VMO2 or Virgin Media O2, they'll be able to have this off balance sheet. I think that's important. And it provides them with the comfort they need that the business - that this particular project will be financed. And that they'll have the benefit of the growth and the opportunities that the project provide as if they were an owner, but without having to be one. And the capital would come from the parent companies, so us and TEF; as well as the private partner, whoever that may be. So we thought it was just simpler and cleaner. It also provides greater optionality for the shareholders themselves in terms of what we may ultimately do with our infrastructure businesses and assets. I think from an investor's point of view, it's really - it's a nonissue because we are the owners of VMO2. VMO2 will be the essentially builder and operator of the network. It will be a very light NetCo. It won't have to do all the things that other NetCos are doing with start-up costs and large management teams and all of that stuff. We rely on VMO2 to essentially supercharge Lightning, if you will, and essentially can start redirecting Lightning resources to this NetCo. That seems like a really simple way to proceed. And I think we all feel pretty positive about that approach.

James Ratzer

Analyst · New Street Research.

And would you give, I mean, at this stage, any indication on how you might then consider funding the entity? I mean could you replicate a model we saw with Deutsche Telekom, where you were to say maybe sell 50% stake in this joint venture to a financial party, and those proceeds would actually fund any contributions you'd have to make, so this could be cash flow neutral at the parent company over the first few years of the build-out?

Michael Fries

Analyst · New Street Research.

Yes. Good question. That will all be resolved in the process of negotiating with partners. We believe that the project has fundamental value today before the first home is built, given the ready-made nature of this particular opportunity. And we will seek, obviously, to convince private investors that Vodafone - I'm sorry, Virgin Media O2's ability to penetrate our - the speed at which we can get rolling should generate or result in a sort of a private market value for that asset even before we begin. But we may not, and we'll see. It has a lot to do with wholesale rates and utilization rates. It's really an economic equation, and a lot of that will be negotiated. So let's see. It's possible, but we're not - we're ready to write a check if that were necessary, and we know what that number is, and it's not substantial. In relation to our cash balance, it's not substantial in relation to Telephonics cash balance. So either way, this is moving forward.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Robert Grindle with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Robert Grindle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Sorry, can you hear me now?

Michael Fries

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Got you.

Robert Grindle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Yes, I'm having trouble today. Apologies for earlier. May I ask about Ventures, where you've had some amazing value appreciation. Can I clarify in what you're effectively saying? Are you saying you'll divest content assets and redeploy that into infrastructure? And then technology, you can either buy and sell and you won't have to put new money in. Is that how you're thinking about it, that sort of the main thoughts going forward is infrastructure?

Michael Fries

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Yes. So no, I wouldn't be that concrete about what you've just said. I think what we've said in the past is that our content investments, which are substantial, could - we will look at them carefully to determine whether we want to increase those investments, monetize those investments or do something with those investments of a strategic nature. And they're large. The portfolio itself is the largest of the three elements. So I think it's safe to say we'll be opportunistic around the content portfolio and what we'll do with either those public or private interests. Does it need we'll never do another content investment? No, it doesn't mean that. It doesn't mean that we'll do that. That means we'll be creative and opportunistic with those, which about 1.6 billion, 1.7 billion of value that we could look at in terms of the content portfolio. We said historically that the Tech Ventures Group, which is about $1 billion plus, generally distributes to us $200 million to $300 million a year and - or less or more depending on exits. So it could largely fund itself given the amount of capital we're putting into Tech annually, we would expect that the tech platform could be self-funding, if you will, but that may be the case in most years. It may not be the case if a particular deal or something around. But I think that's a safe assumption. The side of the pillar that does require capital, it looks to be very exciting to us is the infrastructure side, and those are usually larger investments. If you're building fiber or data centers or new startups, as Charlie described, those can be a bit more expensive in some respects. And so I think that will be a net user of capital since it's very early stages for infrastructure. So that will be a net user of capital going forward. I hope that helps.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carl Murdock-Smith with Berenberg. Your line is open.

Carl Murdock-Smith

Analyst

I just wanted to ask about the kind of 2027 target for the additional 7 million homes rollout. On the back of an envelope, I calculate that, that roughly means kind of doubling or even tripling the pace of Lightning currently. So I was just wondering if you could kind of help us through the pace at which we should expect your rollout to accelerate? And also, what gives you confidence that you can accelerate that much given the historic issues that you have faced with the pace of Project Lightning rollout?

Michael Fries

Analyst

Yes. I'll let Lutz answer that. I'll simply say, we haven't really faced any issues. We delivered between 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 600,000 homes for the last four or five years. So other than I think many years ago, when we first started the project, maybe you're referring to, but I don't know how many years we have to hit the numbers to have that particular issue go away. We've built 2.7 million homes. Over half of them are fiber homes. We're consistent and steady. Suppliers want to work with us. We pay our bills. We're predictable. But I think, Lutz, why don't you address that more specifically? Lutz Schüler: Yes. So we have been a bit light last year, but that is because of the pandemic. We have guided that we will build more than 500,000 homes this year. We have to actually ensure supply for a higher number than that. And we are also in sync with the fiber company to build, in conversation with Tier 1 vendors. And there is an appetite to further accelerate rollout with us. And I think what we have to offer is right. VMO2, we have a history of building 2.7 million homes. Every second household is a customer of ours now. And so if a Tier 1 supplier gets a midterm commitment from us, that drives interest, right? You always want to balance your clients being a supplier between altnets, which may be a bit more uncertain, and the big tiers in the market. So yes, you're right. we plan for an acceleration. And yes, we are confident that we can ensure our source of plan.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nick Lyall with SocGen. Your line is open.

Nick Lyall

Analyst · SocGen. Your line is open.

Mike, Charlie, it was then a couple of questions on the U.K., please, Mike. Just in the cable footprint, how much of the 2.1 billion CapEx for 2022 for VMO2 is going to be on fiber, please? And how many homes do you think that's going to get you to with fiber? Just to get an idea of the sort of phasing of the fiber rollout, if possible? And then second, I think you said last quarter that you'll probably reach about 2 million homes with fiber-in-the-cable footprint. So have you seen a big acceleration in that now as they start to ramp up the numbers? And how are you competing in that 2 million or 2 million-plus homes, please?

Michael Fries

Analyst · SocGen. Your line is open.

Yes. Lutz, you can prepare for the second question. I think on the first one, I'll just tell you, we're not providing detail around the build estimates there. So we have said we'll build more Lightning homes. You could do the math on that. We did 330,000 in '21. We're going to ramp that to above 500,000. So that will clearly be a portion of the incremental CapEx in the base case guidance. But we haven't been specific about how many homes will upgrade the fiber. We have told you what that will cost, but we haven't told how many. I think that's by design. And then that does not include - the CapEx estimate provided does not include any costs associated with this recently announced financing that we just spoke about a moment ago. Not that, that would create significant cost because VMO2 would be reimbursed for any cost it provides services for, but it does not include that. So I think that's the right answer. We'll provide more guidance on the fiber upgrade as we get into it. But the only message we're providing today is that we did the 50,000-home trial, and it checked out really well. So Lutz, do you want to address the second question? Lutz Schüler: Yes. So Openreach covers now roughly one-third of our network, a bit less. And we are carefully looking at the impact in terms of customer churn. And so far, we see very little impact. Now obviously, we have invested a lot of money into higher-speeds. Customers are sitting on a much better customer service. Ofcom complaints went down 93%. More and more customers are also having mobile with us, and we have a lot of good content. So therefore, we do everything we can to obviously keep our customers as loyal as possible to ourselves. . At the moment, the numbers we see we are losing is really low. But the other thing we also have to take into account is the pandemic, right? So customers might be a bit more careful at the moment switching their connection to the outside world during the pandemic than they would do afterwards. So therefore, we do everything we can to keep NPS growing and churn down. And so far, we see very low.

Nick Lyall

Analyst · SocGen. Your line is open.

Just to clarify, Lutz. Sorry, that you see about 5 million Openreach overlap at the moment in the cable network, is that the -- Lutz Schüler: It's Openreach and altnets, but I think it's something in that magnitude, it is, yes. .

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Ratcliffe with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

James Ratcliffe

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

I thought to dig a little more into strategy in Ventures. When you talk about infrastructure investments, can you give us any idea of any particular areas you're focused on? And what sort of deals are you looking at to be a minority investor or controlling investor? And are we just talking about Europe or globally? .

Michael Fries

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Charlie, do you want to take that one?

Charles Bracken

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Sure. I think the rationale of infrastructure is we already have a bunch of infrastructure assets that are probably mispriced in a conglomerate kind of telecom structure. One example is our hub sites, which are clearly very high-quality technical sites, which is they were a sort of a technical REIT with probably a bit some like 20x cash flow. And that was indeed the transaction we did by merging that in-kind asset with our private equity partners who've been excellent, by the way, Digital Bridge. So we're going after the edge cloud computing. And the reason that's a good deal for us is obviously, there's a long-term growth profile there, and we have the option to buy out our partner down the line if the fund comes to an end. But also it's very synergistic to our businesses. There's a lot of increase in fiber connectivity that comes from that cloud-computing program. And so I think as we think about the infrastructure is those kind of opportunities, and the key areas that we thought about are leveraging our expertise and be able to build fiber homes. So he's done an excellent job, [Robert Dan], who was the old CFO of Virgin. He's leading the charge at looking at places where we can partner up and leverage our expertise in building homes at scale. And I think I would echo what Lutz said that we're actually the best in the U.K. at building a scale at many respects. And then the third big area for us is energy. Rightly or wrongly, we're a big consumer of energy. And rightly or wrongly, we are all like everybody else, working through that process of making the transition to Net Zero, whether it be electric vehicle charge or electric vehicles and/or seller panels and/or and/or. And if you think about it, we have enormous field operations who are very experienced in going to homes, and we see a big opportunity to leverage that expertise and building a new business. And again, we try to do that with partners. We have an excellent a relay partner for our public charging network called Zee Capital, and that business is doing very well, getting a lot of very good wins of local authorities in the U.K. And then we've also launched a more consumer focus, that's the EGG thing I talked about it. And clearly, the plan will be to take that across Europe into the Benelux and Switzerland initially and leverage our experience of subscription-based customer relationships and how you finance them and how you manage them and how you leverage call centers. So that's the adjacencies we're thinking about as we go into this infrastructure space.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Maurice Patrick with Barclays. Your line is open.

Maurice Patrick

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

Yes, a question on Switzerland. I wondered if you could walk us through the moving parts on the EBITDA for 2022 and '21. I'm assuming there's probably a reasonable slug of synergy delivery in the year, probably offset by higher cost of capture as signaled. But again to get to a flattish EBITDA, it would be very helpful to get some color in terms of the moving parts. And just related, I mean, on your first slide, Mike, Slide 3, you talked about $14 a share of synergy value. Just curious as to how much would have been captured by the end of '22, say.

Michael Fries

Analyst · Barclays. Your line is open.

Yes. Good question. And Andre, I'll let you prepare for that - the first part of that. I would say, if you look at the two assets, we gave you synergy estimates for both of them in the order of, I think, what GBP 530 million, plus or minus for the U.K., I want to say CHF 330 million. Those would be sort of run rate synergy estimates for each of the businesses. And we're reasonably far along. I don't know that we're giving - I'm not sure if we are prepared to give exact in specific numbers, but we're making great progress. I know that this year in Switzerland is a peak funding year. So it's cost-to-capture year. So whereas last year, I think we said we spent in Switzerland around 116 million to capture synergies this year. That will go up to, I think, about 180 million, plus or minus, and that will be a peak year. But in this particular '22, we expect to almost breakeven between synergies and cost to capture, which means '23 will be pretty substantial, and '24 and '25, right, will be pretty substantial positive synergy years. And VMO2 is about a year behind, right? So it got started almost a year later. So there, we've given you the numbers for cost of capture, I believe, in the press release, so you can see what those numbers are. It's about twice what they were in '21, but not quite breaking even yet on synergies in '22. And that will happen obviously over the next 23 to 26 when we hit that 530 million, 540 million run rate. So those are some big-picture targets. Andre, do you want to talk about the EBITDA. André Krause: Sure. Yes. And you touched on it, Mike. Yes,…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark. Your line is open.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · Benchmark. Your line is open.

Especially in the context of VMO2, can you talk about how all fiber reduces your cost over time, customer touch points? At least one company in the U.S. is really talking 30%, even 40% there and then the flow-through of the long-term capital intensity. And then I guess lastly the optionality it opens up on the commercial services side having that capability as well. I know you have a lot already, but it feels like there's still some headroom in there. Thanks for taking the question.

Charles Bracken

Analyst · Benchmark. Your line is open.

Mike, are you there? Lutz Schüler: Maybe we had lost Mike.

Michael Fries

Analyst · Benchmark. Your line is open.

Sorry, I'm here.

Matthew Harrigan

Analyst · Benchmark. Your line is open.

Is that the horizon moment, Mike? Is that the moment, Mike?

Michael Fries

Analyst · Benchmark. Your line is open.

Yes, yes, yes. There we go. There's a lot of benefits to a fiber upgrade, Matt, and you hit a couple of them, obviously, having the ability to provide more sophisticated and competitive services in the enterprise space, potentially offering wholesale revenues and just being more marketable, to some extent, B2C proposition. And so, we think there are benefits across the board beyond just simply having a more robust network to compete against existing operators and incumbents. On the fiber cost point, in the U.K., we are and as you've said this before, since it's a relatively long build process, we don't intend to shut down the HFC network. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to me if the HFC network were operating for quite some time in a sort of a dual mode because we don't want to force migration to fiber. We don't need - unlike the phone companies that have copper lines forcing migration of fiber that allows them to dismantle their copper infrastructure, in our case, we'll migrate people to fiber who want 1, 2, 3, 10-gig. But if you're happy with your 500-meg or your 250-meg, we may or may not incur the cost that, migrate to fiber because our network is really robust on its surface, on the space. So we're going to run two networks, if you will, for a period of time, which is the best of both worlds 1-gig available everywhere, and then as we roll the fiber out, 10-gig and other advantages where it becomes available. So there will be cost savings over time. But I think for the foreseeable future, we're going to run two networks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sam McHugh with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Samuel McHugh

Analyst · BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Yes thanks very much. Just on the U.K. again, sorry to labor this stuff. And I think BT talked about the Armageddon scenario of you wholesaling your network to some of their big customers. So when you're talking to potential industrial partners, what is it you think you bring to the table differently to Openreach? And do you think it would make sense for some of your theoretical partner to have skin in the game in the network to align their interest if they could share the upside with you on any network build?

Michael Fries

Analyst · BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Well, Lutz, I'll let you think of some suggestions here, too. I'll just make one point, which is the main difference is that we're envisioning a full fiber network of 23 million homes by 2027, 2028. And that those homes will represent almost 100% of all urban markets, and it will be the first time this country has ever seen a competitive provider of wholesale if we go that route. So the idea that Openreach will retain 100% of wholesale revenue, whether it's us or altnets competing, is zero. There is zero chance that BT will retain 100% of wholesale revenue over the next five years. How could it possibly do that with all the capital being invested in competitive infrastructure? There is a zero chance of that. So we think if you look at the prospect for penetrate some of that revenue, certainly, Virgin Media would be the number one choice because of our scale, our reach and our ability to deliver. So that's the broad narrative. It's not that complex. And the notion that there will be Armageddon, I think, is foolish. I don't believe he really means that. I don't know why he would say that. I'm not sure he did say that. But if he did say that, that's certainly not a smart thing to say, if you're already sort of a monopolist, there's going to be - structure in the U.K. There's going to be a competitive infrastructure in the U.K. We are the single greatest source of that competitive infrastructure, and we're pretty excited about the opportunity. Do you want to add anything to that, Lutz? Lutz Schüler: Yes I mean, right, in the future, the ISPs have the choice between two national networks, instead of one. And if you would be an ISP, I'm sure you would use both. So right is what you said, Mike, before. And then also, what do we have to offer. Well, it depends how quickly we are able to close some of these deals. But we are sitting today on the fastest gigabit largest 1-gig network in the country by far. So also, there's some appetite to -- from other ISPs to leverage that. So I think we have a lot to offer. We are a challenger in the market competitor. And so let's see.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Andrew Beale with Arete. Your line is open.

Andrew Beale

Analyst

I just wanted to build on that question about the fiber JV and the wholesaling. I guess I'm just asking how are you going to subcontract VMO2 to speed up the ramp and eliminate duplication. And whether the new NetCo JV also contracts directly with new construction partners to get the base up and footprint up? And then when you're wholesaling, will that be both from VMO2 and the fiber JV, so you offer the full 23 million footprints that you just mentioned or rather than just the seven? And finally, will VMO2 also look to wholesale from Openreach or others to take its long-term footprint up towards 30 million or full coverage?

Michael Fries

Analyst

Yes, three very good questions. And Lutz can address the first one I think in terms of Lightning essentially being transferred into the NetCo, the new network JV, all of that field capacity, build relationships, supplier relationships, activity would essentially be transferred. So you can easily see VMO2 redirecting its forces into the network JV and achieving pretty substantial growth. Remember, our pace of Lightning build has been not a function of our ability or willingness or capability to build, it's been more or less trying to drive free cash flow and financial outcome for the company. Lutz comes to me every year and says, I want to build more and we say, yes, but we want to generate free cash, so let's find a happy medium. So there's never been an issue of capabilities. It's always been financial management, which is what he want us to do. It's managing the pluses and minuses. So I think - we're all convinced that if we'd set Lutz and his team free to build more, they could build more. It's just a matter of the capital. And you hit the nail on the head in terms of the 22 million homes, sure. That will be and should be a combined approach if we get to that point, and you would see VMO2 managing that wholesale activity. In terms of the third point, we haven't worked much on that. Lutz, you can jump in on that. We haven't really modeled much access to third-party networks. But do you want to add anything to that, Lutz? Lutz Schüler: Yes, maybe right to support your first two points, right. At the end, we are leveraging the build machine and then also the wholesale machine we're currently building for that new fiberco. And right, if you're an ISP, for you, it's easier to contract for 23 million homes instead of doing two contracts, why would you do that. And I think in terms of what you said, Lightning. The Lightning machine will absolutely work then for that fiberco. Who owns the contractual relationship with the suppliers is a different question, right. And we are sitting obviously, today on great contracts like that and right, so we have to consider that. But I think both those machines will work for that. On the one, what our plans to wholesale on Openreach network, so in general, right, we only would wholesale on fiber right and not on copper. And obviously, also Openreach is first focusing on urban areas as we do. So therefore, there is less built to be expected on the 7 million homes from Openreach. And the other piece is simply, right we are integrating two companies. We have a lot on our plate. So let's not to be too ambitious and do everything at the same time so therefore, we see that as a second priority, maybe we would do it later, but not in scope at the moment.

Michael Fries

Analyst

All right, well listen, we're a little bit over. I appreciate you hanging on if you still are still on. I guess, just three points. One, we really are seeing the continuation of the commercial momentum over the last 24 months in our core operations that's critical. I think that's really the most important piece of the puzzle is that we continue to grow organically. And then secondly, as you've heard and understood, we're making smart investments, both in cost to capture, which will pay off in immediate future, and those are investments you want us to be making and then in some instances, our networks particularly in the U.K. where we've spent quite a bit of time today talking about the opportunities that, that presents. And then thirdly, we've got some exciting catalysts, whether that's ventures or towers or buybacks, all three of those things act as sort of catalyst to what we think is a great fundamental story. So appreciate your support, and we'll be talking to you soon. Thanks, everybody. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's fourth quarter 2021 investor call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website. There, you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials.