Jean-Jacques Charhon
Analyst · Macquarie
Thank you, Eilif. Before discussing the results for the third quarter, let me make a couple of reminders. First, starting this period, the results shown for enrollments, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA offer continuing operations as noted in the header of those relevant slides. For net income, cash flow and balance sheet metrics, the results shown will include the discontinued operation consistent with the way we are recording them under U.S. GAAP. Finally, the third quarter is a seasonally low quarter as many of our institutions are in a break during most of July and August. However, it does represent one of the two largest enrollment intake cycles for the year. With that being said, let me now provide you with a summary of our financial performance for Q3 starting on page six. Revenue in the third quarter was $787 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $121 million, which as Eilif noted, is ahead of the guidance we provided three months ago. On a comparable basis and at constant currency, our revenue for Q3 increased 3% and adjusted EBITDA grew 28%. This has led to an increase of our adjusted EBITDA margin rate by more than 300 basis points for Q3 versus the same period a year ago and illustrates the strong focus we have put on margin improvements in 2018. Let's now review in more detail our operating metrics starting with enrollment on page eight. As a reminder, the third quarter is the primary intake for our institution in Mexico, but also represents a sizable secondary intake for our institution in Brazil, Chile, and Peru. Finally, for our online and partnership segments, although their intake is more evenly distributed across the year, September is one of their largest enrollment months. With that in mind, new enrollments in Q3 grew 4% when compared to the same period a year ago and is very consistent with the overall performance we observed during the first half of 2018. Now, let me provide some additional color by reported segments. First and foremost, Brazil, which continues to perform very well for us. Our distance learning business grew new enrollment year-on-year by 59% through September, which we are very pleased with, and is the result of the investment we have been making in order to bring this operating segment as quickly as possible to scale. While new enrollments for our campus-based operations were flat, our prayer segment grew 9% and was completely offset by the continued reduction of our new enrollment associated with government-sponsored program like FIES. In Mexico, performance was mixed and consistent with what we experienced during their first intake in March. As we've discussed during our prior call, the economic environment remains challenging and the eroding consumer confidence continues to impact the higher education sector overall. Despite these difficult dynamics, our UNITEC brand is still growing, thanks to geographic expansion initiatives outside of Mexico City. Our Andean segment delivered another period of solid performance, mostly led by our two largest institutions in Peru: UPN and UPC. In our rest of the world segment, our business in Australia is doing extremely well with 8% growth in new enrollments. Finally, online partnership new enrollments were flat for the quarter. We did grow domestic new enrollment 4% for the quarter and 3% year-to-date at Walden, but as expected, this was offset by our international segment, which has been gradually de-emphasized throughout the year. Now, let's move to our financial performance, which you will find starting on page 10. On a comparable basis, our revenue for the third quarter was up 3%, while adjusted EBITDA was up 28%. Our overall results were driven by strong revenue performance in Andean and Australia as well as margin improvement fueled by the benefits of our G&A containment action as well as the acceleration of our operating model transformation in Brazil. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Ricardo Berckemeyer, our President and Chief Operating Officer and all the operating leaders in aggressively driving margin improvement, while continuing to focus on enrollment and revenue growth. Let's now move to our cash flow performance. Given the seasonality of our business, I'm just going to focus on the year-to-date performance as shown on page 15. Please note that our cash flow statement includes the impact from continuing and discontinued operations. Overall, free cash flow generation for the first nine months was up $128 million year-over-year, thanks mostly to $170 million reduction in interest expenses. As we have reiterated throughout the year, balancing cash flow generation with the need to support our enrollment growth has been a strong point of emphasis in 2018. More importantly, despite the FX headwind this year, which have amounted to above $30 million versus last year, we are still on track to deliver a $200 million free cash flow improvement year-over-year. Now, let's move to our earnings guidance starting on page 17. For the full year and for Q4, our guidance on total enrollments, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA only reflects the anticipated performance of our continuing operations. Let me start with the full year guidance. Total enrollments are expected to end flat when compared to 2017. Revenue, based on current spot FX rate, is expected to be between $3.340 billion and $3.355 billion. This represents a year-over-year organic constant currency growth of 2% to 2.5%. Adjusted EBITDA still based on current spot FX rate is expected to be between $615 million and $620 million and would represent a year-over-year organic constant currency growth of 7% to 8%. Please note that this is net of a $10 million negative impact associated with FX as well as approximately $35 million of G&A expenses, which are expected to be progressively phased out following the completion of our announced divestitures. Finally, from a capital structure perspective, we are still expecting to receive at least $1.5 billion in net of proceeds between now and the end of 2019. Approximately $500 million is mostly associated with our assets divested in the U.S. and Malaysia and $1 billion is the net proceeds anticipated for our divestitures announced this past August. For the fourth quarter, our guidance based on current spot FX rate is as follows; revenue is expected to be between $903 million and $918 million; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $221 million and $226 million. Let me now turn in back to Eilif for the wrap-up.