William Reiman
Analyst · Lucid Capital
Yes. Thanks, David. Good morning, everybody. As we've been reporting, much of our current management focus is on these properties being operated under the modified lease agreements or farmed directly utilizing third-party farm operators. with the marketing season for almonds and pistachios for the 2025 crop about half done, we're seeing prices firming up, especially with pistachios. Couple that with our crop yields being larger than forecasted, our final crop revenue and profit numbers for 2025 should beat our expectations. Looking forward to the 2026 season, we are through winter, which ended with a very meager snowpack in most Western U.S. watersheds, although many areas where our farms are located received above normal rainfall, especially in the early spring. This means spring soil water content is high, and it should get crops off to a potentially strong start. As of April 1, our almond bloom was complete. And while across California, bloom was mixed, our locations are pretty darn good with initial crop sets stronger than last year's. March had an unusual hot spell right in the middle of pistachio bloom, and this weather event caused quite a few issues around the state. Specifically, some trees have aborted a significant percentage of their crop. It's difficult to tell the impact to our orchards at this time, mainly because the 2026 crop year is considered what we call a down year for pistachios. Pistachios are what we call alternate bearing, meaning that crop yields on a year-to-year basis can vary from very high to very low and can be very dramatic. Since this is a low production year or a down year, as we say, some of our pistachio blocks didn't have as much crop -- didn't have much crop on there before the heat spell. So it's possible that impact we feel will be minimal. Another reason it's hard to predict is just how the remaining fruit set develops. There's a long way to go in the growing season, and we just don't know how it will shape up. So -- and also another factor this impact is with a major reduction in supply, it's definitely going to continue putting upward pressure on pricing. There's a chance that pricing outweighs the crop loss. So we'll just have to wait and see. Currently, all of our properties where we have invested capital in the crops are tracking according to budget. And we may have an increase in water expense on a couple of ranches, we should end up right in line with budget targets. Talk about markets a little bit. We think most ag real estate markets in the Western U.S. have bottomed out, and we're starting to see a little more activity with transactions. In particular, we've seen several pistachio acquisitions completed in the last 6 months at prices we haven't seen in a few years. We don't believe valuations are necessarily making a comeback just yet, but there are some strategic buyers willing to pay a higher price for orchards with good cash flow potential. Coastal California values remain flat with higher-than-normal inventory and the Pacific Northwest is stable. When really good properties come on the market up there, they sell very quickly. Medium, lower-quality properties sit and wait. I'd say values and rents in the Pacific Northwest are stable. And then last note on real estate markets, particularly in California, but really all over the West, we're seeing a divergence of values between properties with really good water and those without. Due to regulations and policy, we expect that to really be a permanent situation. The war in Iran, continued tariff drama, trade tensions are all still in the headlines. The crop markets seem to have settled in and kind of accepted this uncertainty to a large degree. Net crop markets continue to show notable resilience and strength, particularly for pistachios, see tremendous growth in demand for all things pistachio in global markets. Growth prices are continuing to move upward. We expect our minimum pricing for 2026 to be significantly higher than 2025. So that's good news. I would say the general sentiment in the pistachio industry is even with a large number of nonbearing acres, it's underplanted. So this is really good news for growers and the value of their crop going forward. And for us, it's really important. It's the largest crop in our portfolio. Almonds have been pretty steady, some minor ups and downs due in large part to the drama in the Strait of Hormuz, but prices have lately been trending upward after recent crop size projections were released, showing a similar crop to last year. It appears the market was expecting a larger crop and therefore, lower prices. We've reported in the past that we believe the market is underbought. So these lower-than-expected predictions are driving buyers to fulfill their needs. Wine grape markets continue to underperform, although we're beginning to see some varietals, particularly some white grape varietals, become short in supply. At the moment, this isn't causing any increase in prices or providing any incentive for wineries to contract for supply, but it is the first encouraging sign we've seen in a couple of years. Vineyard removals continue at a rapid pace in California and around the world. So we're hopeful that this pullback in supply will soon bring the market back into balance. There's been a lot said about fertilizer fuel prices jumping up due to the war. While this is true, our exposure is somewhat limited. Overall fertilizer cost as a percentage of total cultural cost for most of the crops growing on our farms is relatively small. In the case of our operated farms, there were many purchases made pre-war. So that limits the impact in those particular cases. Finally, water. We initially had a strong start to the winter in terms of snow and rain. However, once we got past early January, we only had a few storms come through, and they came in late winter and early spring. The result was a very weak snowpack, but reservoirs above normal and good spring moisture set the season off on a good note. We're in the market looking for good opportunities to acquire water for this year and beyond. We're still experiencing the positive effects of this recent wet year trend that's resulted in availability of water at economical prices. Our team continues to evaluate these opportunities with the goal of strengthening the overall water security of the portfolio through both long and short-term strategic water purchases, continuing to invest in water delivery, storage infrastructure and identifying opportunities to create synergies across our farm assets. Now I'll turn it over to our CFO, Lewis Parrish.