Earnings Labs

Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 5, 2020

$134.96

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Excuse me, everyone. We now have Sean Reilly and Jay Johnson in conference. In the course of this discussion, Lamar may make forward-looking statements regarding the company including statements about its future financial performance, strategic goals, plans and objectives, including with respect to the amount and timing of any distributions to stockholders, and the impacts and effects of the novel coronavirus on the company's business, financial condition and results of operations. All forward-looking statements involve risk, uncertainties, and contingencies, many of which are beyond Lamar's control and which may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. Lamar has identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the call and the company's third quarter 2020 earnings release and its most recent annual report on Form 10-K as updated or supplemented by its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and current report on Form 8-K. Lamar refers you to those documents. Lamar's third quarter 2020 earnings release, which contain information required by Regulation G regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures, was furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K this morning and is available on the Investors section of Lamar's website at www.lamar.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Reilly. Mr. Reilly, you may begin.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Thank you, Samantha. Good morning, all, and welcome to Lamar's Q3 2020 earnings call. As you've seen in our release, our business continues to rebound with momentum building from July through September. And I can tell you that October, helped by what will be a record-setting year for us in political advertising, was exceptionally strong. A number of our plans and even one of our regions exceeded their October 2019 sales in October 2020. Another strong data point was the recovery of our programmatic channel as October had a record-setting month for programmatic billing. In the vast majority of our markets, our local advertising has normalized across most categories. And while national advertising lagged local again in Q3, national activity, measured by the number of RFPs we are asked to respond to, returned to 2019 levels toward the end of the quarter and has remained robust. National should be substantially improved in Q4. Categories of relative strength in Q3 included insurance, gaming, hospitals, and healthcare and, encouragingly, automotive. Event-based advertising remained soft and retail was also relatively weak to the rest of the book. Meanwhile, our initiatives to align our expense base continue to pay off. We now believe we will achieve at least $75 million in expense savings off the 2019 pro forma expense base of about $980 million. I have to give a lot of credit to our employees who have done a terrific job of staying close to our customers and watching expenses through this year. With the sales recovery and the expense savings, we are now confident that we will exceed guidance that we provided in August. As you saw in our release, we issued new guidance for AFFO to come in between $4.65 and $4.85 per share. The midpoint of that range implies full year revenue declines of approximately 12%. With business improving, we are back on our front foot as far as our digital deployment. We are moving forward in the final two months of 2020 with some of the digital conversions we've put on hold in the spring. And I have challenged our team to deploy over 300 new digitals in 2021. The resilience of the business this year and the recovery so far demonstrate the confidence that advertisers have in out-of-home as a cost-effective powerful channel for reaching their audiences. We are looking forward to finish in 2020 strong and carrying the momentum into 2021. With that, I will turn it over to Jay to walk you through the details.

Jay L. Johnson - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Thanks, Sean. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join our call. I will begin with brief comments on the quarter, then review our balance sheet, and conclude with a discussion of our current financial position, including liquidity and our dividend policy. In the third quarter, acquisition-adjusted revenue declined 15.5% from the same period last year. We continue to see benefits from our cost reduction initiatives as acquisition-adjusted consolidated expenses declined 11.5%. This was driven primarily through reduced transit in airport franchisees, a decline in ground lease expenses, as well as lower salaries and sales commissions. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $170.7 million compared to $215.2 million in 2019, which is a decrease of 20.7%. On an acquisition-adjusted basis, that decline was 20.1%. Fully diluted AFFO contracted by 18.5% to $1.32 per share. Lamar's business has proven resilient over time, generating consistent cash flow through various market cycles, and this quarter was an excellent example. Despite pressure on revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 44.2%, a testament to our operating model, which focuses on local markets, with a portfolio heavily weighted toward the billboard segment of the out-of-home industry. The bifurcation between national and local advertising continued in the quarter. With employers in major cities encouraging employees to continue working from home and the urban areas experiencing more dramatic decreases in tourism, entertainment, and other activity, our local business significantly outperformed national. The percentage decline in national was over 3 times that of our local business, with the impact particularly pronounced along the East and West Coast. While our local business experienced a revenue decline in the high-single digits, the decline in national was almost 30%, though national improved as we progressed through the quarter. As a result of this divergence, local revenue…

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Thanks, Jay. Just to give a little color on some of the stats, particularly around national sales. As Jay mentioned, in Q3, local was down about 9% and national was down about 30%. However, we saw some very encouraging signs as the quarter progressed, particularly in RFP activity, as I mentioned. And I would also note that, anecdotally, renewal activity for 2021 on the national side looks encouraging as well. The headline on the digital front is our aggressive and expressed new goal of deploying over 300 next year. Our team feels good about that number, and they also feel good about sufficient demand to support that kind of deployment. And again, just to talk about the verticals which, as I mentioned, are normalizing at the local level. Relative strength in hospitals and insurance, and gaming, and automotive. We're still struggling when it comes to event-driven business. Our amusement, entertainment, and sports category was down 55% in Q3. And I just see a lot of room for improvement as we move into next year. Another strong category for us, of course, has been beverages. MillerCoors, Anheuser-Busch, InBev have really been good to us in Q3 and that continued into Q4. With that, Samantha, we will open it up for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question will come from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hey. Good morning, guys. Nice to hear from you.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Hi, Ben. Yeah. Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hey. You guys have done – Jay's work on the balance sheet this year, you guys are now at a leverage level. I actually didn't think you'd be back at 4 times this quickly. I'm just wondering, you talked a little bit about ticking up in M&A activity. I would have thought there'd be more sellers out there. Maybe the market's more efficient than I think. But it would seem like given what we've been through in the last six months, there'd be more available to do and you guys seem really like you've got the capital position to move. So, I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more color on the M&A landscape and whether you see opportunities out there without negotiating against yourself on this call. And then, just secondly...

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Sure. Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: ...I just wanted to confirm, maybe you could just revisit how we should think about the expense savings on the P&L this year and what kind of does and doesn't carry into next year? Thank you.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Great. Great. Thanks, Ben. On the M&A front, one thing that we have seen and you've seen it in our book and in our results is that in small and middle markets, business is pretty good and pretty strong. So, when you think about that part of our footprint, which is upwards of 80% of what we do, the small competitors are also doing well. And so, they're not really looking to sell, right. And as Jay mentioned, their price expectations are – there's a little bit of divergence between what we would like to pay and what they will sell for. But that'll right itself as, again, as the world gets a little more normal next year. I think next year is going to be a good year for us on the M&A front. And then on the expense savings, I think the best way to think about it is we're going to save give or take $75 million off of our pro forma expense base from last year. I think we retain about half that, if I had to sort of guess, as we go into next year. We did some fairly draconian things on the executive and management bonus side. We changed our comp structure this year, which was quite a great deal of savings. I think going into next year, we'll go back to our normal executive and GM comp structure. So, you'll see those expenses on the cash side come back. Presumably, revenues are going to rebound substantially, and we have some expenses that flex with revenues mostly around our compensation for our sales force in terms of commission. But then structurally, again, I think we will have saved – again, about half that will not come back. Does that make sense? Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Yeah. And then if I could just throw one at Jay on next year's callable piece of paper. At this point, do you see an opportunity to save a little bit on interest there based on where those bonds are trading and what you could get in the marketplace? Just wondering if you have any expectation at this point. I know it's still a ways out.

Jay L. Johnson - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Yeah, Ben, it's something we're focused on. I mean, those bonds have a coupon of 5.75%. And if we were to do a 10-year today, we're probably looking at the low-4% range. So, an opportunity for quite a bit of interest savings there. Benjamin Swinburne - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Just two questions, the first one is just circling back on your comments earlier about the divergence in performance between the smaller and the larger markets. I'm curious, I think you said you've seen some signs of sort of encouragement about the larger markets getting better. And I'm curious of when you think we might see more normalized performance coming out those larger markets plus the divergence in what you've been seeing? And then, my second question is I think since the beginning of the pandemic, we were concerned that there'd be some businesses in the small regional level that really just wouldn't survive or wouldn't be able to come back. Yet it does sound like, in some of your smaller markets, things are almost back to normal and I'm curious if that's no longer a concern and you think we can see even some of those higher risk advertising categories fully recover.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Thanks, Alexia. So, the larger markets are interesting in this respect. It's getting pretty clear that people are still moving around and that they're driving. It's just where they're driving and when they're driving. So, for example, in our Manhattan office services the New York DMA and, yes, that's Downtown and, yes, that's the Five Boroughs, but it's also Northern New Jersey and parts of Connecticut. And what we're seeing is our suburban inventory, Northern New Jersey, for example, is in high demand because people, while they may not be taking that typical commute into the city, they are still driving around the several zip codes that comprise their immediate neighborhood. And so, that has been an interesting phenomenon. I don't know how long that keeps going, but that's where we're seeing the rebound in our larger markets and we're seeing it more with our suburban inventory that is outside the downtown core. The other question was around – what was the other one, Alexia?

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Just some of your – I think at the beginning of the pandemic, we were concerned that some of the small regional...

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Oh, yeah, yeah.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah, they wouldn't survive, but I'm – it sounds like things are coming back.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

They are, but I still worry. I still worry about independent restaurants. I stay pretty close to those folks here at home and they're struggling. So, I think it could be an issue. Restaurants typically run about 10% of our book. Most of that is quick service, McDonald's and the like. But about 20% of our restaurant business are those independent operators that are sit down tablecloth indoor dining. And I still worry for them. I do. And I don't think we're out of the woods there. And then I do worry a little bit for our small independent retailers. Retail was a relative underperformer in Q3 as I mentioned. So, we're just going to have to pay close attention to that. I have been asked to compare this particular event in 2020 to the Great Recession and 2009, and what may have been different and what may be similar. I think when we close the book on this year, we will have outperformed that year and that looks clear. But what also looks to me, and this is encouraging, is it appears to look like a V to me in our book. So, that is encouraging. And that could help stem the tide of small independent retailers and restaurants. That could save them next year.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Stephan Bisson with Wolfe Research.

Stephan Bisson - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Good to talk to you guys again. A couple of quick ones for me. On Q4, for the top line revenue, I know (00:24:09) October was up year-over-year, what are you guys seeing ex-political in the quarter and how the months are progressing? And then as a follow-up, on the M&A side, should this be a protracted period of not being able to get the deals done just on the valuation? What are some potential alternative uses of cash that you normally would spend on the M&A?

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

So, the alternative uses of cash, I'll take that one first. Of course, we're going to ramp up our digital deployment next year. I think that's sort of the headline. And as Jay mentioned, assuming we have a decent macro and a good recovery next year, we're going to be increasing our distribution as well. And then that – your first part of your question was around what?

Stephan Bisson - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Ex-political revenue pacings in Q4. I think October...

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Oh, yeah, yeah...

Stephan Bisson - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

....it was up...

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

You kind of broke up a little bit there.

Stephan Bisson - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Sorry about that.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

I mean we are seeing – ex-political, we're seeing a good strengthening in the book. I would add that in terms of our programmatic book, that is exceptionally strong and ex-political was up in October. That was encouraging. And the categories that look to be recovering are hopefully in the events space. That's where we have the most room to grow. And also, I would really, really like for retail to show a little outperformance as we move into the holiday. That would be a good sign as well. And we think we're seeing that.

Stephan Bisson - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much.

Sean Eugene Reilly - Lamar Advertising Co.

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions in the queue at this time. So, I'd like to turn the call back over to Sean Reilly for any closing remarks.