Brian Harris
Analyst · Raymond James.
Same underwriting process, there's no difference, same people here underwrite both categories and obviously one of them has more cash flows than others. So one of them, you might have to have a little bit better predictive ability as opposed to this fully stabilized assets that go into the conduit, but against the conduit model, you’re really underwriting for rating agency guideline and kind of there's a little bit of variation around it, but not that much. Whereas the balance sheet business, you can overlook certain things that maybe a rating agency wouldn't or you can also decide to penalize an item more than the rating agency would. So, we're cautious on all of our loans and we use the same process, but I would tell you that today as opposed to a couple of years ago, in the bridge loan business, we are not underwriting the expectation of higher cash flows over the next 12 to 24 months. We're underwriting stability and if not possibly down cash flows. So we don't necessarily think things are going to get better. And then in a transitional loan, I think we have to live in a world where first of all, interest rates might go up, we think they won't, but they might. And if they do that LIBOR cap only helps until you get to the maturity date. And then it has to be refinanced. So you have to think a little bit more, there's a lot more liquidity in the world. So you can take a little bit more risk, I think, in the execution, because if a borrower does execute 75% of his business plan, he can probably refinance you even though he hasn't got all the cash flow straightened out. But if that liquidity dries up on the refinance pipeline, then you'd have to -- you're in an extension conversation where you're going to ask a borrower to write a check with additional equity, given $730 million in payoffs in the fourth quarter and I'll tell you December didn't get a lot of payoffs because it was such a volatile quarter. So that was a hell of a lot of payoffs in that quarter, relative to our existence to date. Having said that, I think December put a real hole in that CLO model, because spreads did widen out quite a bit. And as a result of that, and as I said, we're only -- we've only received $55 million in payoffs so far in the first quarter. So I wouldn't draw too much conclusion from any one quarter, but we are underwriting cautiously going forward on bridge loans as well as conduit loans.