Eric DeMarco
Analyst · a Benchmark Company
Thank you, Marie. We achieved our financial objectives for 2024 with Kratos positioned for sustained and increased future growth and profitability as we begin 2025, with the United States beginning a generational recapitalization of defense and strategic weapons systems, and with national security funding expected to significantly increase here in America and with our allies. Key highlights from today's financial report include 2024 organic revenue growth of 9.1%, fourth quarter cash flow from operations of over $45 million, Q4 and full year book-to-bill ratios of 1.5 to 1 and 1.2 to 1, respectively. Kratos is forecasting 2025 organic revenue growth of 10% over 2024. And today, Kratos is forecasting 2026 organic revenue growth of 13% to 15% over our fiscal '25 revenue growth forecast of 10%. Also importantly, beginning in 2026 and continuing into 2027, we are currently looking at significantly increased EBITDA margins for Kratos as certain existing programs either begin or see increased production. Certain long-term fixed price contracts we have been working under for a number of years are renewed at higher rates, enabling us to recover going forward the past few years' inflation-driven increased supply chain and labor costs, and Kratos realizing leverage on our fixed costs as our revenue-based organically grows. In 2024, we demonstrated again that the Kratos balanced business plan approach, including making internal investments, being first to market to meet customer demand, and profitably grow the business and making money, generates value for all Kratos stakeholders. Additionally, the Trump administration, the new Secretary of Defense, the DOGE initiative, and the proposed FoRGED Act, which we are particularly excited about, are all looking to increase innovation, reduce costs, increase efficiencies, receive more for less, and rapidly feel relevant hardware and systems now, not in the future based on a PowerPoint presentation, each of which we believe Kratos is uniquely aligned to address. Kratos is a defense industrial-based hardware manufacturing company, not a people-based services or consulting company. The savings from DOGE and the Secretary of Defense's announced 8% reallocation of defense budgets we believe will be beneficial for hardware companies like Kratos, as Kratos' products are in demand, ready to go now, and the U.S. defense manufacturing industrial base is being recapitalized. Areas of emphasis noted by the new administration include hypersonic systems, unmanned systems and drones, space and satellite communication systems, each which are certain of Kratos' largest business areas. Additionally, we believe that the President's recently announced Iron Dome or Golden Dome for America initiative will be significantly positive for our company, with Kratos' proven hardware and systems in air defense, space and missile defense, radars, space and satellite sensing, hypersonic propulsion systems, solid rocket motors, and directed energy systems. Also importantly, we expect to see increased demands for Kratos' target drone, ballistic missile targets, and hypersonic target franchises, as the new Iron Dome USA or Golden Dome system will need to be tested and the warfighter trained against threat representative targets. Relevant Kratos programs include Israel's Iron Dome, Iron Sting, Arrow, and Sling of David, and in the U.S., THAAD, Patriot, Aegis, Author, Rother, Jaylens, HPTSS, Titan, and other systems, certain of which are already being mentioned as elements of the President's Iron Dome initiative. It is possible that initial significant Golden Dome funding could be included in the proposed 2025 supplemental, which could be very good for Kratos in the mid to near term. Kratos is a recognized industry leader in developing upfront, for scale, and also being able to produce at scale, affordable, qualified military and national security-related hardware, products, and systems that work every time for the warfighter. This is what we do. We are a mil-spec hardware, products, and systems company, which is not easy to do, and we believe Kratos' capabilities and our proven past performance qualifications are incredibly valuable to our nation's national security and also the Trump administration's national security vision. Directly related to Kratos' mil-spec hardware capabilities and past performance quals, Kratos has recently received several large new program awards, including in the hypersonic area with the Mach-TB 2.0, the largest award in our company's history at approximately $1.5 billion, positioning Kratos for significant projected future revenue growth and margin expansion. Mach-TB is intended to provide an affordable bridge between hypersonic ground tests and system-level flight tests, which will reduce overall hypersonic development risks and time, and provide rapid transition of innovative hypersonic technologies to the warfighter. As a result of these program wins and additional new programs, we have high confidence of being awarded in '25 and '26, consistent with Kratos increasing our forecast at organic revenue growth for '26 up to 13% to 15% with increased EBITDA margins. We will also be making investments over the next 24 months, including in property, plant, and equipment, in order to successfully build, integrate, and deliver the related program hardware, products, and systems, and successfully execute on these opportunities. A key element of Kratos' strategy also includes working very closely with our partners, including the traditional prime system integrators, and also certain of the new defense technology companies. We believe that Kratos' affordability, speed of execution, innovation, mil-spec hardware capabilities, and rapid building techniques bring added value differentiation to both our partners and our customers. And we are seeing an increasing number of teaming and partnering opportunities as a result. Over the last several months, Kratos' affordable hypersonic systems, including Kratos' Erinyes and Dark Fury hypersonic vehicles, and Kratos' Zeus and Oriole rocket systems continue to progress, including the execution of several successful flight missions. Kratos' ability to go from a clean sheet design to multiple successful hypersonic flights, including glide vehicles, propulsion, and other systems in approximately two years at a cost multiple orders of magnitude lower than previously performed is just a recent example of the strength of Kratos' industry-leading software, digital engineering, technical hardware, and system integration capabilities. Kratos' hypersonic franchise is rapidly expanding, including additional systems we are now working on as we are able to provide our customers with actual flying, low-cost, reliable systems at scale, not pretty pictures or websites. Kratos being first to market and having multiple successful flights of our glide vehicles and other systems has generated significant customer interest, which we expect to turn into future funded opportunities. With Kratos' Mach-TB Hypersonic Program Award, we will be announcing in the near future the location of a major new Kratos hypersonic production, test, integration, and execution campus in the United States in conjunction with the customer, where a large amount of the work under the Mach-TB program will be performed. The new Mach-TB program campus and facility will be separate from the new Prometheus facility, I will discuss shortly. Consistent with Kratos' internal investment strategy, Kratos' Mach-TB Hypersonic Campus and facility is not a build-it-and-hoped-for-they-will-come. But rather, we typically have a customer, a program, or contract award, or a partner commitment before we commit significant resources so that we are comfortable with the rate of return on our shareholders' investment. Kratos' Mach-TB Hypersonic System Campus and Facility will be an important capital investment in '25 and '26. And once complete, the Mach-TB program is expected to begin to significantly ramp up thereafter. Under Mach-TB, we currently expect to generate nominal revenue in the second half of 2025 as we began to receive and integrate certain long-lead hypersonic system, solid rocket motors, and other elements we ordered previously in anticipation of the award, with this initial work being performed at existing Kratos facilities, with an expected significant program ramp beginning in '26 and increasing in '27 with the new facility coming online. We are also now zeroing in on the location for a separate from Mach-TB and separate from Prometheus additional new Kratos Hypersonic System Initiative facility called Project ARES, which location we hope to identify and report to you in the second half of this year with customer-funded work beginning in 2026. Kratos Turbine Technologies and our jet engine and propulsion business, which were key contributors to our '24 performance, are also positioned for continued future growth, including in the missile, drone, loitering, munition, hypersonic, supersonic space, and other areas, with propulsion systems being certain of the highest priority and well-funded national security areas. The demand for Kratos' engine and propulsion systems, including our Spartan family of small jet engines for cruise missiles, is strong and increasing, and we continue to expand our current facilities and establish new facilities to successfully execute the program awards we have already received and others we expect to receive. We have moved out on our new jet engine test and production facility in Oklahoma, which is directly related to our partnership with General Electric Aerospace and certain missile and drone programs, with this facility expected to be completed in late '26 or '27, and forecasted revenue contributions expected to begin thereafter. Kratos Turbine Technologies' Blade Works has been focused on a new classified jet engine program we have for a large new Tactical Airborne System, which program could become one of KTT's largest in the future, and also a separate classified program, which aerial system flight is planned for later this year. Kratos' C5 ISR Air Defense Missile Radar, CUAS, and Directed Energy Hardware business has a near-record backlog and opportunity pipeline, including a new hypersonic weapon system program we recently received. Kratos' C5 ISR hardware business has several programs beginning production or expected to begin production in '25 and '26, including this new hypersonic program and the new Defense of Guam system. Kratos' Microwave Electronics business, which supports Iron Dome, Tamir, Iron Sting, Arrow, Barak, and other systems, also has a record-level backlog and opportunity pipeline, with the expansion of our existing microwave facility and our new production facility both in Israel expected to be completed in '25. A few weeks ago, Kratos acquired the business of a small U.S. microwave company, Project Phoenix, or Norden Millimeter that we have known for a number of years, which will provide us accelerated access to certain new customers and programs we've targeted. Kratos' Unmanned Systems business is also forecasting growth for 2025, with the potential to significantly exceed our current forecast we provided today if certain tactical drone opportunities come to fruition on the currently anticipated timeline. Since our last report to you, and including recently, there has been a lot in the press on drones, the types of drones needed to deter our enemies, and importantly, that drones must be low-cost and able to be fielded in large quantities, with the new administration's initial indications on drones also being positive. It was recently announced that Kratos has received an additional Valkyrie-related contract with the Marine Corps, and in the announcement, the Marines stated that the Marine Corps are at the vanguard of collaborative combat aircraft, or CCA development, and that the Marines intend to field an operational CCA squadron with the tactically relevant aircraft equipped with effective, affordable mission system payloads. Additionally, the Marine Corps also recently published its latest Marine Corps aviation plan, including a detailed update on Project Eagle, a secretive initiative which includes a two-year experimental test phase of Kratos' Valkyrie, with flight tests increasing in 2025. Kratos' Valkyrie has been performing under the PAACK-P program with the Marines, with the Valkyrie now transitioning to the much larger MaxTac Air program, which looks to enhance the effectiveness of F-35 fighter aircraft in peer-near-peer conflict by acting as a loyal wingman capable of providing offensive and defensive assistance by leveraging various capabilities. Kratos' customer-funded Apollo and Athena programs are also proceeding well, and I am particularly pleased with Thanatos, which I believe, similar to Valkyrie, is going to be a game-changer for Kratos. Though we remain convinced that Kratos' tactical drone business is going to be very successful, we will remain cautious and not include potential significant tactical drone sales in our financial forecast until we receive or are extremely confident of a contract. Kratos' target drones are in demand, including with the increased global demand for air defense, missile, radar, and other systems, all of which need to be regularly tested and exercised, and the warfighters trained against threat representative targets. And as I mentioned earlier, we expect Golden Dome USA to be a new opportunity set for Kratos' target drone business. Kratos continues under contract with the government customer, where we are integrating Kratos' low-cost jet engines into several Kratos drones, including, as previously publicly disclosed, Kratos' Air Wolf and Firejet, which are scheduled to fly later this year. Once successful, we expect that Kratos' jet engines will reduce cost and increase performance and reliability of these Kratos systems, and we believe that Kratos will be one of the only vertically integrated companies that produces a jet aircraft and its engine within the same organization, reducing supplier risk, cost, and increasing speed of execution. The engine integration plan is part of Kratos' company-wide initiative to vertically integrate certain critical components and subsystems in order to reduce supply chain and cybersecurity risk, lower cost, and reduce delivery time to our customers. Related to our vertical integration initiative, Kratos is continuing to invest in 3D printing, additive manufacturing, machining, milling, laser, machinery, and other equipment related to hardware, composites, carbon materials, and other exotic mill spec-related materials to support Kratos' programs, contracts, partners, and our customers. We are currently in the process of expanding our tactical and target drone engineering production test and integration facilities in anticipation of both new and increased current program activity. Kratos' ghost works, including our air-gapped capability, has been focused on Thanatos and an additional Valkyrie variant that we are developing, and now also a new black system. We expect Kratos' satellite communication business with our open space virtualized C2 and TTNC software system to return to growth in 2025, including, as we have recently received a number of national security-related program wins, which is reflected in this business's fourth quarter 2.3 to 1 book-to-bill ratio. We currently expect Kratos' satellite business to be a primary contributor to Kratos' forecasted increased EBITDA margins in '26 and '27. This is based on current program delivery expectations. The geopolitical and global security landscape, which aggregate funding exceeds $2 trillion, with the United States accounting for approximately $1 trillion of this amount, is providing a robust opportunity set for companies like Kratos, with opportunities for Kratos having never been stronger and that are continuing to increase. Representative of the large number of customer opportunities and initiatives that have recently approached Kratos or become available to Kratos include, in the hypersonic area, Project Erinyes, Project Helios, Project Anaconda, and Project Vulcan, each of which, similar to Prometheus and our engine partnership with GE Aviation, I hope to be able to provide you, in the future, with the nature of the program or opportunity, its location, and the customers or partners we're working with on each one. Our industry continues to operate under a CRA, with no 2025 defense budget currently in place, with the current CRA scheduled through March 14 of '25, at which time Kratos and the entire industry will have been operating under CRAs for approximately 12 of the past 18 months, which is a primary reason we are being cautious with our initial '25 financial guidance we provided today. Execution challenges include the difficulty in obtaining and retaining qualified personnel, including those willing and able to obtain national security clearances, the related cost of these individuals, supply chain issues, and the increasing cost of materials in certain areas. We are focused internally on execution of our record backlog and opportunity pipeline, winning new program awards, of which we expect several, with no acquisitions of the size contemplated. Now for our Prometheus announcement today. We have announced that Kratos and Rafael have established the Prometheus Energetics Joint Venture, a U.S.-based merchant supplier of solid rocket motors and energetics. Kratos is honored to partner with Rafael and be the trusted agent to introduce Rafael's energetics technology and implement their proven manufacturing processes and procedures in the U.S. market. Kratos has a deep, decades-long relationship with Rafael, including Kratos' Israeli-based microelectronics business, where today we have several hundred personnel located and working on Israeli missile, radar, satellite, and other national security systems. Kratos has a long history of successfully advancing innovation, developing disruptive technologies and rocket motor specifications to enhance warfighter capabilities, and Kratos makes the ideal partner for Rafael here in the United States. Prometheus is an approximate 50-50 partnership between Kratos and Rafael, with the manufacturing facilities to be located on a 500-acre site in Bloomfield, Indiana, near Naval Surface Warfare Center Crane, and will include Prometheus' corporate headquarters, solid rocket motor and energetics engineering, test production and integration facilities, where approximately 300 people will ultimately be employed. Rafael will be the anchor customer for Prometheus and intends to have Prometheus produce tens of thousands of solid rocket motors and energetics for existing and expected future demand. Prometheus will be CFIUS, FOCI, et cetera, compliant in order to be able to fully address United States, as well as Israeli, national security requirements. Kratos and Rafael have each committed to invest up to approximately $87.5 million in capital for the establishment of Prometheus and the required property, plant, equipment, and personnel needed for the new state-of-the-art energetics manufacturing campus and facilities. Kratos and Rafael's investments are expected to be made rateably over the approximate next two years, with the majority of the investment currently contemplated to be made in '26. The total aggregate approximate $125 million investment in Prometheus is expected to potentially be substantially offset or reduced by various industrial-based related funds we have been working on securing since last year. Prometheus is projected to begin production in '27 after construction of the plant, and once Rafael's technology transfer is completed and certified for operation. Now, very importantly, the solid rocket motors, energetics, and warhead manufacturing operations to be executed by Prometheus during production will utilize the same proven, fully qualified technologies and processes currently used in Rafael's Israeli production facility for multiple missile programs. This will significantly reduce risk and time to market for Prometheus. This is the qualification, which is another first-to-market type competitive advantage for Kratos and Prometheus. As I mentioned, Rafael intends for Prometheus to produce tens of thousands of SRMs and energetics delivered over multiple years to address its increased demand. As such, Prometheus has a currently forecasted annual base case revenue of several hundred million dollars a year, once at rate production, which would close the business case for Kratos' investment. Accordingly, this is not a build it and hope they come type situation. As part of the phased approach we are taking, strategic objective merchant supplier Prometheus is expected to expand into the development, build to print, and manufacturing of additional customer SRMs and warheads to meet ever-expanding domestic needs supporting the U.S. industrial base. With Prometheus' significant intended base case production quantities intended by Rafael, we are confident that Prometheus will be extremely cost competitive as a merchant supplier supporting the U.S. industrial base as a result of the intended large quantities of Rafael-sourced energetics produced at the Prometheus manufacturing facilities and the leverage of these quantities over the required fixed cost base. We also believe that Prometheus, as a merchant supplier of SRMs and energetics, will be very well positioned for the Trump administration's new Golden Dome initiative. Prometheus has already met and coordinated with the U.S. government, potential U.S. customers, and these customers' future demand requirements. As a result of our preliminary work related to potential third-party customers, Prometheus' potential longer-term future annual revenue is currently expected to reach up to approximately a $1 billion in revenue annually as Prometheus becomes a supplier for additional systems and platforms produced by key U.S. primes and others. Prometheus' strategy is consistent with Kratos' capabilities, including Kratos being a leader in hypersonic or advanced systems, strategic systems, ballistic missile targets, suborbital research vehicles, sounding rockets, and solid rocket motors. Kratos has served the U.S. advanced systems, hypersonics, and missile defense communities for decades, delivering numerous novel systems and flight tests. Also, Kratos is the only company today delivering both propulsion and advanced flight systems with Kratos' advanced and hypersonic systems, including the low-cost Erinyes glide vehicle, Dark Fury Zeus, and Oriole solid rocket motors, and other Kratos systems and technologies. Accordingly, we believe that Prometheus, once up and running at full rate production, will be a step function catalyst and value creation for all Kratos stakeholders, Prometheus customers, and the U.S. defense industrial base. I'll now turn it over to Deanna to talk about the accounting for Prometheus, and then to go through the financial results for our fourth quarter in 2024.