Eric DeMarco
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. You may proceed with your question
Thank you, Marie. Good afternoon. Both our industry and Kratos recently received some very good news with Congress agreeing to a two year budget and debt ceiling agreement, which includes a 2020 and 2021 defense spending of $738 billion and $741 billion respectively. Both increases over the 2019 defense budget of approximately $718 billion. This congressional budget agreement, which we understand has White House support, will hopefully be finalized into law by the end of this calendar year after an expected limited continuing resolution, allowing time for the appropriators to reconcile the bills.This budget agreement once signed in the law positions several large Kratos programs including on our drone business. To begin development, begin initial production or realized increased production, we believe positioning the company for sustained significant future organic growth. Additionally, as a result of the increasing geopolitical threat environment, we could see even higher defense budgets in the future as indicated by the five-year Future Years Defense Program/Plan or FYDP, which was recently released in March of this year.Directly related to increasing defense budgets, the recapitalization of strategic weapon systems to address peer and near-peer threat is accelerating globally and Kratos’ primary business areas of unmanned systems, missile defense, hypersonics, space, microwave electronics and training systems are well positioned to address the U.S. and our allies mission critical national security priorities and requirements. We believe that Kratos has proven ability to rapidly develop, demonstrate and field technology leading systems at an affordable cost is a unique and important competitive differentiator for our company in the eyes of our customers.The DoD wants leading technology and affordable systems right now, not in 10 or 20 years, which we believe is providing nontraditional defense system providers like Kratos with multiple large new opportunities, which is reflected in our growth rate and the continued expansion of our bid and proposal pipeline. In June, the Air Force stated that it is focused on working with smaller companies like Kratos with Kratos specifically being named, which we believe is related to our unique and differentiated capabilities.In the second quarter, the Kratos AFRL XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned combat aerial system successfully completed the second of five scheduled demonstration flights with all test points in the second flight being achieved. Kratos is partnered with the Air Force research lab to develop Valkyrie to the Low Cost Attritable Strike Demonstrator program, or LCASD, the Air Force’s effort to feel the loyal wingman type drone that can accompany a fighter jet or other combat aircraft in manned/unmanned teams.The Air Force has stated that it is currently looking at incorporating the XQ-58A Valkyrie with manned fighters including specifically the F-35 and the F-15EX as force multiplier augmenters in a manned/unmanned teaming role and there have been public discussions regarding teaming three Kratos Valkyries with an F-35 or an F-15EX. The Air Force has recently announced that the upcoming F-35 Block 4 upgrade and technical three refresh program will include the command, control and communications capability for unmanned/manned teaming with drone systems and it was specifically mentioned that this would include Kratos’ Valkyrie.The Air Force is also planning on adding sensors and weapons to Valkyrie and is looking to insert artificial intelligence in the XQ-58A via the recently announced Skyborg program. As a result, we are now in discussions with a number of companies regarding integrating their weapon systems with the Valkyrie with this being coordinated directly with Kratos’ customers. It was recently reported that the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for acquisition technology and logistics stated that he hopes to acquire an initial 20 to 30 Valkyries in the near future for further experimentation related to these initiatives and concepts of operations.The Assistant Secretary also reportedly stated that he is looking for the Valkyrie to have a spiraling of development and to become a program of record as soon as fiscal year 2021 which begins next calendar year. It was also just recently reported that the Air Force is looking at Kratos’ Valkyrie and Skyborg to be one of the services new vanguard programs, a concept that was introduced in the 2030 science and technology strategy. The focus of the vanguard program strategy is to transition technology faster from development to the field and to the war fighter. As I believe you can see since the second successful Valkyrie flight momentum for the XQ-58A is building including with potential new customers.One of these potential new customers recently expressed interest in acquiring up to an initial 10 Valkyries in either the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of 2020. This would be an addition to the 20 to 30 Valkyries to potentially be initially acquired by the Air Force customer. Congressional momentum and interest is also increasing with the House of Representatives Committee requesting up to a $50 million funding increase for the Valkyrie in the 2020 defense budget and a Senate committee requesting $100 million Valkyrie funding increase in the 2020 defense budget.These requested Congressional funding increases for the Valkyrie. The ultimate amount of which will be determined via the normal Congressional budgetary reconciliation process are in addition to the in excess of $100 million in funding for the LCASD Valkyrie program we understand is already included in the 2020 defense budget. Accordingly, we believe that we are on track to achieve initial orders of at least 20 to 30 Valkyries by the end of this year or early next year with the expectation of significantly increased future orders in 2020-2021 and for our future program of record.Based on these recent events, information and meetings we have had with the customers over the past few weeks, we have now placed the order for a number of Valkyrie engines under an initial flexible 24 engine unit purchasing framework agreement. The customer related competitive and other considerations, we are limited in what we will say here other than we have now made the initial engine orders, which are a critical long lead item for the Valkyrie that we expect to receive the engines from this initial order beginning in the second half of next year in order to match up with the current Valkyrie manufacturing and production flow expectations and that we plan to order additional engines by the end of this year.This is all consistent with our recent announcement that we will be manufacturing and producing the Valkyrie in our new Oklahoma City facility where we are currently making a significant capital investment in preparation for this production. On the Gremlins program, we have begun delivery of the Gremlin tactical drone UAVs to our prime partner Dynetics for the upcoming initial system demonstration flights. The initial Gremlins system and demonstration flights are scheduled for Q3, Q4 of this year. And once the Gremlin demonstrations are successfully completed, we expect increased momentum and customer and congressional interest for the Gremlin drone similar to what we have experienced with the Valkyrie after its successful demonstration flights.We have recently met with our Dynetics partner and the government customers and we have increased confidence and the ultimate success of the Gremlins program and UAS platform, which Kratos produces. Based on the current demonstration flight schedule, we expect an initial Gremlin order in the first half of 2020 with ultimate timing being driven by the customer and becoming clearer after nominal flight demonstrations. Program Thanatos remains on track. We are currently investing in and building out the required secure program facility and expect it to be complete by the end of this year.We expect Thanatos to give a meaningful financial contribution to Kratos beginning in 2020. On Thanatos assuming successful execution over the approximate 30 months development phase, we now believe the program has the potential to ultimately be as important and significant to Kratos as we currently believe Valkyrie to be. On program F, which is government funded, where Kratos is the prime and our air vehicle is flying today, we remain on track for additional customer sponsored test flights late this year or in the first half of next year where we expect to demonstrate certain mission payload capabilities.Customer interest in program F remains high with one customer now indicating that they currently plan to place an initial order for 100 program F systems once all demonstration flights are successfully completed. We have also delivered to another potential program F customer, a preliminary ROM, or rough order of magnitude estimate, for 1,000 systems to be delivered over an approximate three year period once demonstration flights are complete. We remain highly confident that program F will achieve production status and be fielded in large quantities once the demonstration flights are successfully complete as a result of customer need the mission requirements and the threats we're addressing here.On Spartan, we have now received initial contract funding from our prime partner where Kratos is responsible for the air vehicle and we expect additional clarity on this program path by the end of the year. So on Sparton, we’re under contract. Program ATHENA, which is classified, is also now under contract with system development set to begin later on this year or early next year. Kratos' Ethon ISR/UAS, which is flying today, is under a funded development contract with a government agency, with this program currently expected to be a meaningful financial contributor to Kratos beginning in the second half of 2020 after successfully completing the development program.Program Apollo is now expected to be funded within the next 90 days and we expect to begin significantly executing on this program in 2020. On Kratos' DIU Mako UAS program, we have now received additional funding with this program objective set now expected to be consolidated with Apollo. Accordingly, we will report on this initiative on a combined basis in the future with Apollo. In our last report to you, we had indicated that we expected to potentially have a new Mako customer under contract by the end of this year.This situation has now developed whereby this customer may be interested in Kratos Valkyries instead of the Mako as a result of the successful Valkyrie demonstration flights. We will keep you apprised as this opportunity continues to evolve. As you know, Kratos and AeroVironment recently announced that we have teamed up to demonstrate integrated high performance tactical UAS and tactical missile system capabilities. Simply stated, a Kratos drone will deploy an AeroVironment tactical drone weapon system. We have customer interest in this initiative, which interest has now expanded to two additional potential customers as a result of the community becoming aware of this Kratos AeroVironment initiative and of the potential capabilities of this very affordable and mission capable system.We are currently planning on demonstrating the system either late this year or early next year both well within one year from when we announced this initiative, which also was very favorable to the customer community. On projects A and Z, we recently met with a potential customer and we are now working towards the second half 2020 potential initial contract award. We have now submitted our response to the Skyborg program, RFI. We have met with the customer and we are highly confident that Kratos will ultimately have a significant role in the Skyborg program with our platforms with Kratos Valkyrie and our BQM drones specifically mentioned by the Air Force in the Skyborg program announcement.There was a new classified opportunity that we have been discussing with the government agency called project Omega. We believe that this opportunity has now progressed and that Kratos could potentially receive an initial contract award in Q1, Q2 next year. As I previously mentioned, Kratos has proven ability to rapidly develop, demonstrate and field operationally relevant low cost affordable systems is a key competitive differentiator for our company and one that is highly valued by the customer community.Directly related to Kratos’ positioning, Kratos’ family of high performance jet-powered tactical unmanned aerial drone systems are currently flying today. They are not models. They are not concepts or PowerPoint presentations. As a result, we believe that Kratos has a significant lead in this area and that this is a clear differentiator compared to any of our potential competitors. We are aggressively pressing and taking advantage of our market leading position. We continue to expect significant organic growth from our target drone business with multiple long-term programs under production contracts.These programs include the U.S. Air Force, Navy, Army and other agencies and from a very large multi-year international award we received in 2018 with most of our target drone programs being either sole or single sourced. Under this international award, Kratos’ high performance jet target drone systems recently headlined a war games exercise with the Swedish FMV and a missile firing exercise with the German navy. During this live fire exercise on the open water outside of Härnösand, Sweden, 19 Kratos target drone flights were utilized in both high and low altitude patterns, allowing the German navy to run attack scenarios to test multiple weapon systems. This is just a recent example of Kratos’ target drones exercising state-of-the-art radar, missile and weapon systems capabilities for test, system and crew training and overall operational readiness.Our SSAT BQM-177 program with United States Navy continues to ramp up and in the second quarter Kratos received sole source low rate initial production year three of $25.4 million contract award. A total of 105 BQM-177 target drones are expected to be produced under LRIP 1, 2 and 3. We just recently met with our SSAT Navy customer and the current expectation is for a full rate production contract award to be issued to Kratos in the first half of 2020 and as a result for significant increased production ramping in Kratos’ fiscal 2021.On our U.S. Air Force AFSAT BQM-167 program, in the second quarter Kratos received a $31.8 million sole source contract for production year 15 of the 167 target drone. The production lot year 15, the total number of target drones for lots one through 15 is 482. The ultimate value of Kratos from these target drone contracts are expected to be significantly higher than the published target drone award amounts as a result of related drone payloads, decoys, flares, chaff, spares and other ancillaries required by the systems being awarded under separate contracts.Once in full rate production, these target drone programs have historically been decades long in both production and operations. It was recently reported that both of the United States fifth generation fighters: the F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightning engaged multiple Kratos BQM target drones in an exercise demonstrating once again that Kratos’ target drones are the highest performance direct representative drone systems in the world. We are also under production contracts with United States Army for Kratos’ 167M and 178 fire jet target drones, both of which we expect its increased future production quantities.Additionally, a program with a confidential customer continues to ramp production with this expected to become one of Kratos’s largest long-term future production programs in a few years. As I mentioned in our last report to you, in Q2 the next generation Aerial Target or NGAT RFI was issued by the United States Air Force, which Kratos expects to respond to in Q3.For competitive and other reasons I will not comment on this large new opportunity. However, as I previously mentioned, if you take a look at the NGAT RFI, I believe you will understand why Kratos is extremely excited about what this new opportunity can mean for our company. We believe that Kratos is uniquely positioned for the additional new large target drone opportunities that are coming.On Kratos’s unmanned aerial target drone business we see this business growing to approximately $250 million in annual revenue over the next few years and potentially significantly higher if we are successful on NGAT. Kratos’s turbine technologies continues to perform as expected, including importantly our commercial and MRO businesses, which are jewels including their management teams. And we also continue to make progress on our next generation class of jet drone and tactical missile propulsion systems.Our plan is KTTs technology and affordability to be disruptive to the tactical system market. Similar to Kratos tactical drone business and be a significant future revenue profit and cash flow generator for the company. Kratos is an industry leader in ballistic missile targets and in the second quarter multiple Kratos missile defense targets supported exercise formidable shield 2019 in the exercise. Kratos supported the United States Navy’s Sixth Fleet and NATO's Naval Striking and Support Forces at the UK Ministry of Defense held the range in Scotland. The multinational exercise featured ships, aircraft and personnel from 12 countries.Similar to Kratos’s target drone, Kratos’s ballistic missile targets are an integral part of weapon system and radar test evaluation and operational readiness. Kratos also has important intellectual property or exclusive rights positioning and are affordable BMD targets suite. We currently expect to receive a large sole source BMD target contract award in late Q3 or Q4 of this year. This award has been delayed from a previously inspected first half 2019 award period.We are also in pursuit of a competitive new, very large BMD target hypersonic system opportunity, which has also been delayed from a previously expected first half 2019 award period with the award now expected in Q3 or Q4 of this year. This new opportunity if Kratos is successful is expected to represent one of the largest multi-year single contract award programs in our company's history and would be a very significant financial contributor to our company beginning next year.We have also just recently responded to a new hypersonic system RFP that we believe we are uniquely qualified for. With this award expected late this year or early next year. And we have just recently been approached by a separate customer regarding an additional hypersonic program system opportunity, which we are responding to and which is expected to be awarded in early 2020. In the hypersonic systems area where Kratos has successfully performed missions on a number of hypersonic programs, Kratos has proprietary rights or intellectual property on certain systems, which we believe provide us a clear competitive advantage at an affordable cost.Both Kratos’s BMD target and our hypersonic system businesses backlogs and opportunity pipelines are currently at all time highs. Kratos’s microwave electronics products business had a 1.3 to 1, Q2 book-to-bill ratio. It performed as expected and as on schedule and on budget on all major programs. Kratos’s microwave businesses designed in a number of potentially very large programs including missile, missile defense, radar, F-15, F-16 Gripen, Iron Dome, BARAK and certain guided munition systems, each of which are expected to begin production and to ramp over the next several quarters.For example, on the Barak 8 missile system it was recently announced, I believe last week that KRAS has placed an order with Rafael for 1000 Barak 8 missiles and where Kratos’s content is approximately 50,000 per missile. As a result of this contract award we currently expect this program to begin ramping for Kratos in the second half of next year.Also, just a few days ago it was reported that the Arrow 3 missile achieved three successful test interceptions over Alaska. Kratos content per Aero 3 is approximately 10,000 per missile. Once production on Barak 8 Aero and other Kratos designed in programs occurs. We expect a very strong organic growth trajectory for this business, which historically has generated some of the highest profit margins in the company. Kratos’s microwave businesses backlog and bid and proposal pipeline are currently near all time highs.Kratos C5isr products business, which is missile defense, missile system and radar focused at a 1.9 to 1 book-to-bill ratio in Q2. Major programs for this business include Patriot, FAAD, SHORAD, CPP, SBIRS [indiscernible] just recently Cutter announced a multibillion dollar weapon systems order with Raytheon, which included an undisclosed number of Patriot missile system batteries. Kratos is the sole source provider of a significant portion of the hardware for the Patriot System with our content being several millions of dollars per system.Additionally, Lockheed Martin recently received approximate $1.5 billion THAAD Award from KSA increasing the total value of this to $5.3 billion. Kratos is a major THAAD system hardware provider and our content is several millions of dollars per system. Kratos’s C5isr backlog and bid and proposal pipeline are currently at multi-year highs. Kratos’s training systems business continues to perform well, with this business leading virtual environment technology being a key contributor to Kratos receiving the honor of best in show for its Best in Show for Booth Paris Air Show.We are currently in production and working on a number of programs including helicopter and fixed-wing training systems. The KC-46 and on an U.S. Navy FMS program in Saudi Arabia, which is now in a recompete and the largest contributor of this business. Prior to the recent RFP for the recompete, the funding for the remaining period of performance through the end of the year on this program was descoped by approximately $5 million, contributing to our adjusting the high-end of our expected revenues for the second half of the year.Kratos’s training bid and opportunity pipeline is one of the strongest in the company. Kratos’s space and satellite business continues to adjust and position itself for the changing market, including the extremely large number and size of opportunities I discussed in great detail on last quarter's report, which I encourage you to review. The space and satellite areas of the DoD budget are seeing some of the largest increases as a result of the perceived peer threat environment, which is driving significantly increased funding for new capabilities, functionality, spacecraft and ground infrastructure.Existing systems like the United States Nuclear, Command, Control and Communications Architecture are aging with this systems last major upgrade occurring in the 1980s, which are driving an important opportunity set for Kratos. Also the rapid expansion of commercial space bringing new low-Earth orbit capability is an area that government is looking to leverage allowing for redundant and resilient communications.The Air Force is also looking for cost savings by leveraging off of the commercial space assets, which also brings new opportunities to Kratos. A result of these changing requirements Kratos is becoming a key enabler of the space industries movement to virtualize a cloud-based ground operation through our next generation digital infrastructure systems that are supporting traditional satellites as well as the next generation of small satellite constellations.A recent example has been Kratos’s work with Lockheed on the MBMM Program. We're Kratos virtual software modem allows for the ability to quickly scale for handling a large number of users. Other examples include supporting efforts to create ground systems as a service offering, including Lockheed's Verge, KSat and others were Kratos is under contract and I cannot mention due to NDAs.Kratos’s technology here is revolutionizing the way missions are managed, reducing costs and enabling new defense and commercial services. As a result of the changing market Kratos’s satellite business is transitioning to more of a software based solution versus legacy hardware based solutions, resulting in somewhat reduced expected revenues by the increased EBITDA margins. Representative major space programs we support include WGS, AEHF, SBIRS, MUOS and GPS and I can now inform you that we have a sole source position on OPRI.From a capital allocation standpoint there are no changes in our plans since our last report to you. We expect the company's future cash flow to continue to increase year-over-year with the current primary expectation for this cash flow to continue to deliver and strengthen Kratos’s balance sheet. We intend to maintain adequate cash on the balance sheet to enable us to successfully execute on our business plan and to fund the expected growth in existing production programs and growth in production programs that we believe we're going to receive.We currently foresee no major acquisitions in our strategic roadmap. We believe the production programs, development programs and opportunities that we currently have are industry leading. They're significantly differentiating and that Kratos is positioned for long-term revenue, profit and cash flow.For Kratos’s guidance, the first half of 2019 came in somewhat stronger than we had initially forecast including a favorable business mix with higher product, systems, software and solutions revenues and lower than expected service business revenues, which trend we are currently forecasting to continue.Also, as I mentioned at the beginning of this year, Kratos was in pursuit of three BMD target or hypersonic opportunities, which we had factored probability of win and value amounts in our 2019 forecast based on timing expectations at that time. Off the three Kratos has been successfully awarded the first opportunity, it’s under contract.On the second opportunity, which I previously mentioned has been delayed from an expected first half of 2019 award. It is now currently in source selection and is expected to be awarded in the next few months. The third opportunity solicitation has also been delayed and is now expected to be released late this year with an anticipated first half 2020 award date.So as a result of the favorable business mix, these delays and the expected future trend of reduced services revenues. We're reaffirming our EBITDA or profit and our cash flow guidance and we're reducing the high end of the revenue range. Importantly, we have lost nothing here. A couple of opportunities have moved to the right and on the second BMD target hypersonic opportunity the one currently in source selection. The Kratos team is successful here as I previously stated, this is expected to be one of the largest single award contracts in our company's history with an ultimate value to Kratos of several hundreds of millions of dollars single award. We remain optimistic that we will be awarded these opportunities.In closing, the trajectory of Kratos is directionally up and increasing. The two year budget deal has positioned us for a new program and increased production on a number of programs, key elements of our future significant organic growth expectations. We believe that Valkyrie is on track for initial production and a program of record.Redlands is scheduled for beginning demonstration flights in Q3, Q4 of this year and we expect an initial production once all demonstration flights are successfully completed with Program F, Thanatos and others expected to follow. Over the next six months, we expect to receive a number of new contract awards including in the hypersonic or BMD target areas, which is successful to be major catalysts and growth drivers for the company. Deanna?