Eric DeMarco
Analyst · Canaccord. Your line is open
Thank you, Marie. Good afternoon, everyone. Revenues for Kratos’ Unmanned Systems business grow organically 78% from Q1 ’18 over Q1 2017. Virtually all of these revenues being generated by Kratos’ higher performance target drone related business. We are seeing significant demand for Kratos’ target drones in the United States and also globally. As a recapitalization of strategic weapon systems to address nation state adverse areas is underway. With not only United States DoD, but every NATO ally increasing its defense spending this year with 15 NATO countries increasing their defense budgets as a percent of their GDP. These strategic systems being deployed need to be exercise against the highest performance and most realistic [targets] to the world, which are Kratos’ targets and where Kratos’ is the undisputed industry leader. Directly related to the strong global demand that we are seeing. Kratos’ Unmanned Systems division booked in excess of 200 million in sole source or single award contracts in the first quarter of ’18, all of which we expect to convert to revenue over the respective contracts period of performance. The book-to-bill ratio for Unmanned Systems division was 2.6 to 1 for the first quarter. We are currently executing on low rate initial production contract year one, which we received in 2017 under the U.S. Navy SSAT program for Kratos’ BQM-177 target drone. In Q1 2018, we received a sole source contract award of approximately 24 million from the U.S. Navy for low rate initial production year two and we expect to begin to see meaningful revenue, EBITDA and cash flow generation from this SSAT LRIP2 in the third quarter of this year. In addition to SSAT LRIP2 we now expect to receive an SSAT LRIP3 production quarter later this year at a significantly increased value. The combined value to Kratos’ of LRIP2 and this new LRIP3 arrangement is expected to be greater than what we had previously forecast to receive from just an LRIP2 award. This will result an even higher 2019 revenue from the SSAT program and we are previously forecast. We continue to expect to receive a sole source multi-year full rate production contract on the SSAT program in 2019. At the previously forecast full rate production increased quantities and values. SSAT full rate production is expected to drive significant additional growth for Kratos’ beginning in 2020 and beyond. With this program becoming one of the largest to our company. In Q1, we received a $93 million sole source contract from the United States Army for a modified Kratos’ 167 target drone, which is replacing the retiring MQM-107 target drone. This army program, which is new for Kratos’ in 2018 and has now received initial funding is expected to be inorganic growth driver beginning in the third quarter of this year and continuing for many years into the future. Kratos’ Unmanned Systems division also received another new sole source contract in Q1, so a little later than we had initially forecast with the delay directly related for the extended CRA. This CRA related delay basically has shifted somewhat under this contract from Q2 to Q3 and we have adjusted our internal plan accordingly. We also just received in the past several days an approximate $90 million, 5-year IDIQ contract from the U.S. government agency for Kratos target drones and related systems and services and we have just received the first funded task order under this new contract award. We hope to be able to formally announce this recent contract award in the near future. This contract is expected to come and important contributor to Kratos beginning in Q3 of this year. Demand for Kratos is MQM-178 Firejet target drones also remains very strong and increasing both domestically and internationally and we are currently building numerous 178s for deliveries beginning in the third quarter of this year and for expected new orders for this high-performance jet target drone. We are expecting a number of additional large sole source target drone contract awards over the next several months including with United States Airforce for Kratos’ BQM-167 drones for production years ‘14 through ’16, which corresponds a 3-year production order covering 2019 through 2021 as substantially increased quantities and values over the last few years annual production. We will begin to see meaningful revenue EBITDA and cash flow growth from the expected increased asset production quantities in the first half of next year. Kratos’ target drone business is rapidly ramping on a year-over-year basis with 2018 revenue expected to be significantly greater than 2017 and double that of 2016 as we have previously forecast. On a quarterly basis, we forecast our Unmanned Systems business Q2 to continue with growth trajectory above Q1 and then a large step function in growth for Q3 over Q2 with Q4 currently looking consistent with Q3 as execution increases on our under-contract programs in the second half of the year. With the programs we have under contract increasing production and multiple new opportunities we expect to win going forward, Kratos’ Unmanned target drone business is expected to be a strong year-over-year organic growth driver for our company for the foreseeable future with increasing profit margins and cash flow generation. In the tactical UAS area, we are convinced that affordable high performance tactical drone systems, which can perform their mission and anti-access area denied and contested environments will be a significant part of the future force and Kratos is well positioned under numerous contracts and has important and intellectual property ownership in this high priority national security market. With the Gremlins tactical UAS award with our partner Dynetics, Kratos is now one every high performance tactical unmanned aerial drone system opportunity we have pursued successfully competing against the largest aerospace and defense company in the industry. As just recently reported, Gremlins program flight test at the [indiscernible] provided an opportunity to conduct safe separation and captive flight test of the hard dock and recovery system. In addition to preliminary flight test, the Gremlins team is focused on risk reduction the extensive modeling and simulation. The Gremlins team is now looking at how 5th Generation Aircraft Systems like the F-35 and the F-22 respond to threats and how they could incorporate Gremlins in high risk areas. The Gremlins UAS expected lifetime of about 20 uses, it could provide significant cost advantageous by reducing pay load and air freight cost and by having lower emission and maintenance cost than conventional platforms for all designs to operate for decade. Demonstration of the Gremlins systems is expected in 2019 and initial production buys could come shortly thereafter. As a reminder of the potential opportunity Kratos' have with Gremlins the detailed information that came out with the programs to RFP calls for requirements of $700,000 price point UAV at order quantities of 1,000 at a time, and Kratos' is responsible for the UAV under this program. With recent information that we have, we are more confident than ever that once demonstrated Gremlins will be a very significant program and future growth driver for Kratos. Kratos' Valkyrie program remains on track, on budget and on schedule to demonstrate later this year, at which time the investment Kratos' has been making in this UAS for important intellectual property ownership and to Kratos' owned Valkyrie UAS will be complete, which is expected to immediately result in increased Kratos' free cash flow. Similar to Gremlins, once we've successfully demonstrate Valkyrie, we expect to receive initial orders for these UAS shortly thereafter, ramping over future years with the Valkyrie also being a significant future revenue, profit and cash flow driver of the company. A reminder on the Valkyrie or LCASD opportunity for Kratos' the programs solicitation called for once in production a $3 million UAS that order quantities of less than 100 at a time and for $2 million price point per UAS order quantities greater than 100 at a time. Kratos' Mako, which is the only high-performance jet powered tactical UAS and as flying class today, and which has repeatedly demonstrated manned unmanned teaming as well as other important capabilities it is expected to be under contract with multiple new customers by the end of this year. Now that we have in 2018 budget in place. Related to this, we are currently in discussions with the certain entity as to Kratos' receiving a Mako production contract by the end of this year or early in 2019. Adding to the continued momentum we are seeing for Kratos' tactical high-performance and affordable UAS, we have announced the Kratos' Mako is now approved by the United States state department to be marketed internationally to a number of countries. We believe that this is an important positive development, as we see significant international opportunities for Kratos' Mako in all of our tactical UAVs and due to our systems high-performance, runway independent, distributed lethality, force multiplier attribute and ability to be recovered on both land and in the water. Additionally, shortly after we announce the State Departments approval to market the Mako internationally Kratos' receives State Department approval to market of second of Kratos' tactical UAS internationally. We believe that international sales of Kratos' attack UAS or another opportunity area that is now gaining attraction and will be another future growth, revenue, profit and cash flow contributed for our company. Also, importantly, many of the countries in customers in which we have recently received approval to market Kratos' tactical UAS are already existing Kratos' target drone customers and the profit margins on international business are typically greater than domestic margins. There are also additional tactical UAS programs and opportunities that Kratos’ is involved with and we are pursuing which we are hopeful to be able to discuss with you later this year. Kratos’ new Oklahoma operation continues to expand and we are planning for the first fully integrated Kratos’ high performance unmanned aerial drone aircraft to come off the line in Oklahoma in the first half of 2019. Additionally, our discussions with another small midsized defense company are continuing regarding a strategic production, integration and logistics relationship. And I’m hopeful to have this complete in the third quarter. As I’ve communicated previously, the growth that Kratos’ target drone business is experiencing and that we are forecasting for the next several years indicate that Kratos’ current manufacturing facility will be on full capacity by the end of 2019. As a result, we are positioning now to accommodate the susceptive future of target drone growth and also the expected significant growth in Kratos’ tactical UAS business. In summary, we are now more confident than ever that Kratos’ high performance tactical drone business will be a significant organic growth, profit and cash flow driver for our company, which will be growth in addition to that, which we are currently generating and forecasting just for our target drone business. And similar to Kratos’ target drones, Kratos is the complete system provider for each of our tactical drones. Excluding Kratos’ approximate $60 million to $70 million annual revenue non-core government services business, which we have deemphasized for some time now, KGS organically grew 7% over the first quarter of 2017. The larges first quarter of 2018 growth and KGS where from Kratos’ training system business. As a result of the multiple large long-term program Kratos’ system competitively bid on and won, including with [indiscernible] the Navy FMS, KC-46 MCAT [indiscernible]. Based on these under contract long-term programs, a number of which Kratos is the system provider and our current bid pipeline, we expect Kratos’ training business, which we forecast to be approximately 80 million in annual revenue of this year to continue strong year-over-year revenue growth for the foreseeable future and we recently announced the significant expansion for Kratos’ Orlando training facility to accommodate this expected growth. Kratos’ ballistic missile target business, where Kratos is also the system provider began 2018 very strong with a number of successful missions and with a lager order from a government agency related to Kratos’ proprietary target systems, which is expected to drive growth beginning in the third quarter of this year. With a significant funding increases in the missile defense area, which Kratos is directly seen in large increases and opportunities included in the hypersonic area and Kratos’ intellectual property and proprietary rights ownership. Kratos’ BMD target business area is forecast have the strong 2018 with an even stronger future beginning in 2019. Our Microwave Electronics business had particularly strong in Q1 primarily related to the initial Griffin electronic warfare contract award which we have previously anticipated. Based on the number of missile, radar, communications EW and other programs, our microwave businesses design and sole source or competing for. We expect our EW business to be up future organic growth driver for our company and the business with one of the highest profit margins in cash flow generation potential in our company. Kratos' satellite communications or space business where Kratos products and solutions support 85% of US and 75% of global space missions began 2018 stronger than we had originally forecast with a very favorable execution mix of revenues in Q1, we recently received a very large unexpected positive surprise for Kratos' space business with two additional WGS satellites being added to the 2018 DoD budget just prior to its approval. WGS is one of our space business is largest and most important programs and these two additional WGS satellites to increase our confidence for these businesses gross prospects going forward. Additionally, and representative of Kratos is leadership position in the space communications market was just reported that Kratos in use have been selected to prototype joint military commercial satellite network. This network will be focused on the DoD bringing leading technologies, space communications for the military. Our space and satellite business points to have an outstanding 2018, including a strong Q3 and Q4. Now we have the 2018 DoD budget in place. Over the long-term space and satellite communications are seeing some of the largest funding increases in the DoD budget and we believe that this will be a direct extended growth catalyst for Kratos. Other notable areas, programs and system for credit Kratos is either under contract or pursuing opportunities include patriot, fab F-15 and F-16 F-35, hypersonics high-power directed energy. With a 2018 DoD budget now in place the 2019 DoD funding level established with the bipartisan spending bill and the Trump Administration national central defense strategy published, we have high confidence in Kratos' 2018 financial forecasts and in our future as we believe that Kratos' systems, products and solutions are very closely aligned with US DoD and global national security priorities. Directly related to the extended continuing resolution Kratos' second quarter forecast similar to what we guided for Q1 with KGS being affected most by the CR due to the nature of its contracts and we are currently forecasting a very strong third quarter and a similar to increase fourth quarter. Now that there is a deal DoD budget in place and as we execute on our under-contract programs contracts and the expected awards. With the pending divestiture of PSS, we have positioned Kratos as a high growth, technology and intellectual property-based aerospace and defense company. We are laser focus on operational execution, increasing our profit margins and increasing our cash flow. Deanna.