Eric DeMarco
Analyst · Noble Financial
Thank you, Laura. Good afternoon.
Today we announced our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2011 results with cash flow from operations exceeding our expectations for the fourth quarter. And exceeding our expectations for the second half of the year.
Kratos has generated an EBITDA margin rate for 2011 of 12.7% achieving our previously-stated targets on 2011 revenues of $723 million.
For the fourth quarter of ’11, overall performance came in substantially in line with what we had expected with the exception of an anticipated $11 million high margin product delivery that was delayed by an unexpected competitor protest with this competitor protest just recently being denied.
Very importantly, Kratos generated operating cash flow of over $27 million in the second half of 2011, which makes us very comfortable reiterating our 2012 guidance forecast flow of $50 million to $65 million with a current Kratos share account of approximately 32.4 million.
Additionally, with the Federal 2012 DoD budget being approved in January and a Q4 book-to-bill ratio of 1.2 X, we are now comfortable providing 2012 revenue guidance of $950 million to $1 billion with Q1 revenue approximating or being slightly above the fourth quarter we just reported. And a smooth sequential quarterly ramp of 5% to 9% throughout the year, which is driven primarily by currently planned product shipments. Deanna will provide the details on our financial performance and guidance in her prepared remarks.
During 2011, Kratos continued the strategic refocusing of our business with the vast majority of what Kratos does today being in the areas of electronic warfare, electronic attack, satellite communications, unmanned aerial systems, C5ISR, missile systems, and ballistic missile defense, cyber security, cyber warfare, and information assurance, and critical infrastructure securities, strategic asset security, and public safety systems.
We have transitioned the business where by the majority of Kratos’ work today is the manufacture and production of specialized or proprietary products, equipment, and software. And specialized system integration solutions where in most cases the work is sole source or very limited competition in nature.
Additionally, the majority of contracts that Kratos receives are single award in nature. Not IDIQ’s max or GWAC’s where these types of contracts typically have multiple winners of the vehicle. And then subsequently additional competitions are required to win individual task orders that actually perform the work.
The fact that the majority of the contract awards that Kratos receives are single award is also directly related to Kratos’ transition to being a specialty products and technology based company with the de-emphasis on services.
As to this de-emphasis on services, about three years ago, we started to see additional market pressures in the generic or undifferentiated information technology, program management, and other service areas with insourcing of contractor positions by the government customer and increased focus by the government on small business and other satisfied type awards. And most importantly, the government customer moving towards making procurement decisions based on the lowest cost technically acceptable criteria, which is basically commoditizing many aspects of the services area.
Furthermore, in order to reduce its’ costs paid to contractors in the services area, the government has moved more and more towards these multiple award type MAX and IDIQ’s with task orders being re-competed every one or two years in some cases forcing contractors to bid more often and lower and lower in order to win work, accordingly. Over the past few years, we have seen significantly de-emphasized our focus on these generic non-differentiated services areas, which today make up less than 10% of Kratos’ business. And we have focused on the specialty and proprietary product and technology areas where Kratos’ product and technology are designed in on established, deployed, and introduction national security platforms where we have the socket. The barriers to entry are extremely high to any potential new competitors. The majority of the work we perform is single, or sole source, or very limited competition. And the majority of the procurements are made on a single award basis.
As you probably know, in the latter part of 2011, the Department of Defense undertook a fundamental review of its’ defense strategy and spending priorities similar to a QDR review, which Secretary Panetta formally announced the results of on January 26th, 2012. Along with the DoD’s new strategic guidance profile, and the just released defense budget priorities and choices document. The new defense strategy, which will trim conventional forces will also increase investment in certain select capabilities including intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic warfare, unmanned systems, space programs, cyber space capabilities and platforms, and platforms that can project U.S. forces rapidly around the world. We believe that the repositioning of Kratos’ business over the past three years has clearly positioned our company to be successful as we move forward in the new defense strategy and budgetary environment.
Some of the major programs and initiatives at Kratos today include the EA-18G Growler where Kratos is under contract in providing single source of a large number of electronic warfare and electronic attack related electronics products. And the F/A18 where Kratos is providing integrated microwave assemblies and other specialized electronics.
AEG18 primary mission is the suppression of enemy air defenses when the aircraft counters enemy air defenses using both reactive and preemptive jamming techniques. The Navy will receive 52 AEG18’s by 2013 and another 30 after that at a rate of approximately five per year. This does not include anticipated additional international orders.
Also, it was just recently announced that the F35 is being de-emphasized as an electronic attack aircraft. And there will be a more intense focus on the EAG Growler for a new fully funded airborne electronic attack platform. We believe that this is clearly good news for Kratos as we are well positioned from a customer related technology and existing performance related qualifications for this large new future opportunity. Both the EAG18 and the F/A18 are currently in full rate production with these platforms currently planned to be in service decades into the future.
Another major Kratos program is the Trident 2 D-5 fleet ballistic missile, the latest generation of the U.S. Navy submarine launch fleet ballistic missile. The Trident 2 D-5 is the only offensive strategic missile remaining active in the U.S. arsenal. The Trident missile is currently scheduled to be in fleet through at least 2050. And Kratos’ sole source on numerous specialized products that support the strategic platform. Similar to the EA-18 Growler, the Trident D-5 program is one of the largest in our company.
Another major Kratos business area is in satellite command and control and satellite interference, detection, and protection. Including for the WGS, Milstar, AEHF, MOUS, Polar, Discus, Skynet satellite communication systems in addition to numerous classified satellite communications, based, based ISR, and COMSTAT Com programs. We believe that the satellite communication market will be a growth area for Kratos with the U.S. Air Force recently authorizing the development and launch of the 8M9 wide by M to global SATCOM satellites, a contract award just recently being made for the production of the third and fourth global positioning three satellites, the first of four planned mobile user objective satellites being launched, and five additional nations joining the WGS program with these nations planning on acquiring the tenth WGS satellite. These are all Kratos supported programs.
Additionally, the defense information service agency, or DISA, is currently focused on satellite communications ground or terrestrial infrastructure where DISA is adding AEHF uplink resources to networks completing wave form phase two to improve wave form efficiencies for UHF users, deploying and activating the joint IPM modem network, and continuing the improvements and full motion video dissemination across satellite communication links. Satellite ground and terrestrial infrastructure is a Kratos strength area, as you know.
Also in the satellite communications area, a large part of Kratos business is focused and currently under contract on spaced based cyber threats, radio frequency signal interference, and jamming counter measures and attack. Most of this work is classified or confidential in nature. And there is a significant additional business development opportunity that we are already exploiting with the combination of Kratos’ proprietary Neuro Star and Doppler view, cyber, and situational awareness software products. And interval systems proprietary software and products and their customer set. This opportunity includes situational awareness, space based cyber threats, and the jamming or interference between satellite communicational links and unmanned aerial systems.
Also related to the SATCOM market opportunity that we see, satellite consulting firm Euro Consult recently reported that over the next ten years, 1,145 satellites will be launched of which 70% are attributed to government demand. Today, the Department of Defense reliance on commercial satellite communications is approximately 90%.
One of the key drivers of this demand is unmanned aerial systems and ISR requirements, which are overwhelming the military and national security agencies in data and are taking up huge amounts of bandwidth. For example, one global hawk needs 500 megabytes per second of bandwidth, which is approximately 500% of the total bandwidth of the entire U.S. military during the 1991 Gulf War.
As you know, Kratos provides products and solutions for over 85% of all U.S. based missions. And as I just mentioned, we are looking for Kratos’ satellite communications business to be a growth area driven in part by the increasing demand for and use of ISR and unmanned aerial systems, and planned future satellite launches.
The unmanned systems area is another area where we see great opportunity going forward for our company. In 2005, only 5% of military aircraft were unmanned. Today, the U.S. military has approximately 7,500 drones while the number of manned aircraft is approximately 10,800.
By all accounts, the quantity, size, capabilities, and related electronics, ISR, weapons systems, and support equipment in the unmanned aerial systems area will continue to significantly increase and receive solid funding. Including as noted in the DoD’s new defense strategy.
In the unmanned systems area, Kratos is currently under contract for avionics, electronics, and flight control equipment as well as ground station flight control equipment for certain UAV and UAS programs.
Kratos is currently under contract for the manufacture and production for UAV system command and control ground equipment, ground station equipment, vehicle protection equipment, electronics related equipment, and specialized unmanned system transport equipment. We are also under contract for the weaponization of certain unmanned systems and also for certain ISR related activities most all of which are either confidential or classified.
Additionally, last year Kratos received a $126 million five year single award contract for performing certain weapons range operations, a good portion of which also relates to certain unmanned systems operations. A particular area in the unmanned environment that Kratos is recently involved with has to do with unmanned combat aerial systems or UCAS’s. The vast majority of UAV’s currently in the U.S. arsenal are propeller driven. And have been designed to operate in completely uncontested airspace. A very important mission to be addressed is the ability for unmanned systems to operate effectively in fully contested airspace and anti-access and aerial denial environments.
Most of what we are doing here is either classified or confidential in nature. However, I wanted to briefly mention it to you as this is an area that Kratos is targeting for future meaningful opportunities.
Finally, in the unmanned systems area, I am very pleased to announce that Kratos has just very recently received an extremely important and strategic unmanned systems program related contract award that will be meaningful not only financially, but strategically to Kratos over this unmanned system program’s life cycle. At this time, we do not have customer approval to put out a formal press release. But we do expect to receive approval to do so in the near future at which time we will be able to discuss what this could mean to our company on this new and high profile state of the art program.
Continuing on with important Kratos programs, the Littoral combat ship where Kratos is under contract for the mission module elements for both freedom and independent classes of ships under this program. There are currently 55 littoral combat ships planned to be produced. 22 ships are currently on order with three current mission module packages.
Mine counter-measures, anti-submarine warfare, and surface warfare all being programs of record for the LCS. Each mission module set includes four to seven specialty manufactured mission module products, which is what Kratos is under contract for. It is our understanding that the U.S. Navy currently plans to acquire approximately 65 mission module sets for the three current mission module packages I just mentioned.
Additionally, the naval sea systems command is currently developing a fourth additional mission module package, which will focus on a regular warfare. And [indiscernible] recently commented that program officials are currently developing a fifth LCS mission package for maritime security operations.
Also, the navy and marine corps, CVLCS is a very versatile platform that could potentially host a range of additional mission packages that would further expand the ship’s capabilities far beyond the modules currently planned. The littoral combat ship was specifically noted in the previously mentioned defense budget priorities and choices document released in January of this year as a critical element of the military’s rebalance toward the Asia Pacific and Mideast regions. We understand that the U.S. Navy plans to forward deploy littoral combat ships in Singapore and Bahrain, and may station as many as 16 littoral combat ships at naval base San Diego.
Also strategically and very importantly related to the LCS program is that the U.S. Navy currently anticipates that the next generation of surface combatants is likely to follow the LCSs modular construction with the navy relying on modularity and open architecture to deal with both reduced ship building budgets and ever evolving threats. We are hopeful that the LCS program will be another example where Kratos has the customer, the tooling, the technology, the qualifications, and we have the socket. And where Kratos would be the logical go-to provider for modular products for future service combatants and platforms.
The LCS program is one example of a cornerstone of our strategy. Identify a platform or program that is deeply embedded in our country’s national security strategic docket, obtain the tooling, the equipment, technology, and customer relationships required to competitively bid for a very specialized area of that program. Win the opportunity, get designed in, and if the program expands, participate it its’ growth.
Kratos also has significant experience, tooling equipment, and IP in combat system modular design. Including for a command and control, fire control, and specialized electronic systems.
One of the key programs where Kratos obtained this experience is with the DDG 1000 with a second and third zoom wall class destroyers are now under contract. And Kratos is manufacturing very specialized electronic modular enclosures for each of the currently planned three combatants. The DDG 1000 is also currently a very important program for Kratos.
Additional key programs where Kratos is exploiting these very unique and specialized manufacturing past performance qualifications include Patriot, FAD, Aegis, the electromagnetic rail gun, and a number of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance programs.
Kratos is currently under contract for very specialized electronic products for the advanced medium range air-to-air missile or AMRAM. Importantly, the air force just recently cancelled the next generation missile and has made the decision to continue to acquire the AMRAM for the foreseeable future. This is a common thesis that we have continued to see where military leaders are looking to keep existing systems and programs under production and in the field for as long as possible while still enhancing capability. This means a big emphasis on technology upgrades and technology insertion for established and deployed platforms. And we believe that companies like Kratos that once again are designed in to these existing systems and have the customer relationship and the socket will have the advantage.
Other important programs where Kratos is currently under contract for special electronics products and work include the P-8A Poseidon, Aegis again, E-2D Hawkeye, aerial targets, Sidewinder, standard missile, Chinook, and TOW. On the P-8A Poseidon, which provides maritime control, anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and armed intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, Kratos’ sole source on surface specialized electronic related products and equipment. The U.S. Navy is preparing to take delivery of the first production version of this aircraft, which is replacing the P-3 Orion with the navy currently expecting to take delivery of 117 of these aircraft with an additional eight on order by the Indian Navy, and current discussions with the Australian Navy for an additional order.
In Kratos’ critical infrastructure and securities business, which now makes up approximately 15% to 20% of our company, and which is primarily non-DoD funded or customer based, this business grew organically greater than 12% in 2011. And we are forecasting continued strong growth again in 2012. The combination of increasing threat profiles in this country, smart grid adoption, aging infrastructure, rising compliance and regulations, and real threats against utilities, power companies, transportation systems, and strategic assets are some of the factors that are driving this market for us.
Additionally, critical infrastructure operators in the United States are prime targets and are under attack from a cyber-standpoint. And we see a real opportunity for Kratos’ cyber business and our PSS business to jointly address this significant customer opportunity, which is one of the primary reasons we have been building both of these businesses over the past few years.
Directly related to this, there is a bill currently before congress that would significantly increase the power of the Department of Homeland Security to monitor the cyber security practices of industries, which are part of the United States critical infrastructure.
Needless to say, a key element of Kratos’ strategy of jointly building and growing our cyber security business and our critical infrastructure security and public safety business is our belief that mandated or regulated practices, policies, and procedures will be forthcoming regarding the safeguarding of our country’s critical infrastructure and strategic assets from cyber-attack. And we are positioning in Kratos to take advantage of this.
Directly related to this critical infrastructure cyber opportunity, Kratos currently has under way several cyber security and situational awareness related pilot projects at certain of this nation’s highest profile strategic asset locations directly related to this issue I'm talking about.
The business development and cross-selling opportunity between Kratos’ cyber security business and Kratos’ public safety and security business is very real. It is happening. And it is just one example of the numerous cross division or cross business unit, new business opportunities we have either under contract or that we are pursuing some of which I’ve discussed today.
I’ll now turn the call over to Deanna.