Earnings Labs

Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 5, 2020

$71.48

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Kontoor Brands Q4 Year End Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.It’s now my pleasure to introduce your host, Eric Tracy. Please go ahead sir.

Eric Tracy

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Kontoor Brands Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Participants on today's call will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ. These uncertainties are detailed in documents filed with the SEC. We urge you to read our risk factors, cautionary language and other disclosures contained in those reports. Amounts referred to on today's call will often be on an adjusted dollar basis, which we clearly defined in the news release that was issued this morning. Adjusted amounts exclude the impact of restructuring and separation costs, changes in our business model, the noncash impairment charges related to our Rock & Republic trademark and other adjustments. The reconciliations of GAAP measures to adjusted amounts can be found in the supplemental financial tables included in today's news release, which is available on our website at kontoorbrands.com. These tables identify and quantify excluded items and provide management's view of why this information is useful to investors. Unless otherwise noted, amounts referred to on this call will be in constant currency basis, which excludes the translation impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Constant currency amounts are intended to help investors better understand the underlying operational performance of our business, excluding the impacts of shifts in currency exchange rates over the period. Joining me on today's call are Kontoor Brands' President and Chief Executive Officer, Scott Baxter; and Chief Financial Officer, Rustin Welton. In addition, on today’s call, we are also be joined by Tom Waldron, Global President – Brand President of Wrangler and Chris Waldeck, Global Brand President of Lee. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. We anticipate the call will last about an hour. With that, I turn it over to CEO, Scott Baxter.

Scott Baxter

Analyst

Thank you, Eric and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us. As Eric mentioned, our Global Brand President, Tom Waldron and Chris Waldeck will be joining us for this year-end review. We believe this call is a great opportunity to have them share insights from post-spin to today as well as go-forward strategies for each of their respective brands. We intend to have them join us for these year-end reviews on subsequent fourth quarter calls. You'll hear from each of them in a bit. Let me start by acknowledging what a dynamic environment we are all currently in. The last few weeks I've seen the emergence of the COVID-19 Coronavirus, which has driven quite a bit of headline risk and uncertainty in global markets. While conditions are fluid, we remain extremely confident in the underlying fundamentals of our business. The strategic initiatives we are implementing coupled with our best-in-class supply chain and robust cash flow generation provide us with distinct competitive advantage, particularly in times such as these. The path may not be linear, but the levers in our control are significant and we believe we'll unlock meaningful value creation for our shareholders over time. I will touch on this more in a bit, but let me first share some thoughts on the past year. 2019 was a highly transformational year for Kontoor Brands. It was a year of successful transition for our organization, our leadership teams, and our employees around the globe. While we have accomplished much over the last year, including delivering on our financial commitments laid out earlier this year, we remain in the early stages of investing behind and leveraging our two iconic brands Wrangler and Lee, to drive more profitable growth longer term. Let me remind everyone of our stated strategic plan that was…

Tom Waldron

Analyst

Thank you, Scott and good morning everyone. Let me begin by saying without a doubt, 2019 has been the most transformative year in Wrangler’s history, while maintaining the authenticity of Wrangler's Western heritage under Kontoor. We have now been able to invest in the brand to drive future revenue growth. Team had never been more excited to compete in the marketplace and I am truly proud of our efforts over the last year to support a successful transition and setting the stage for really great things to come. First, let me level set everyone on where Wrangler plays today. We are primarily a U.S.-based brand with a focus on Western and mass channels. These are our roots and we will continue to defend and grow this core business, but investments we are now making will also allow us to push the brand beyond the core and will act as key enablers in an elevated brand and grow into completely new ways. Let me highlight a few. We've invested in talent leadership to help enhance our go-to market strategies. We hired the brand's first ever Global Lead Designer and Global Head of Marketing and brought in new GMs in both Asia and Europe. What really important is we execute against our first global brand architecture. We've accelerated investments in innovation. From a product perspective, we launched our new outdoor performance All Terrain Gear or ATG which launched with key retail partners this past fall. And we've made significant investments in sustainability which drives innovation across both product and manufacturing. These include sustainability platforms such as Indigood and Rooted each launched this past year. These are really solid proof points that serving the consumer needs, driving enhanced profitability and doing the right things for the planet can be harmonized. And finally we…

Chris Waldeck

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. And thank you all for joining us today. Perhaps even more than Wrangler, Lee has experienced meaningful transformation during 2019. We're in the midst of significant change as we look to reposition, elevate, and drive more quality of growth for Lee. In 2020 particularly in the second half, we expect to see the benefits of our teams incredible efforts and can't wait to share some of these exciting wins in the months to come. I want to acknowledge something out of the gate. Under prior ownership, the Lee brand wasn't prioritized in terms of brand investments, under Kontoor and this leadership team, this is clearly changing. We've had a lot of cleaning up to do and are pleased with the progress we've made. Let me provide a few examples of the significant actions and investments we've taken to create the building blocks for Lee's future success. First, the relocation of Lee business to our global headquarters here in North Carolina has begun to manifest enhanced talent acquisition processes, better leverage of scaled resources and robust cost savings opportunities. From a quality of sales perspective, under Kontoor, we've exited unprofitable points of distribution in the U.S., India and Europe. These actions are the right strategic decisions to support the long-term health of the brand. And we've begun to realize the benefits with lower markdown and distress sales that have contributed to margin recaptured experience through the last few quarters. Leveraging the learning’s from our international business, particularly in Asia we have 20 plus years of operating as a premium lifestyle brand. We are now finally able to make the necessarily investments that help bring those successes from product to innovation to distribution strategies back to the U.S. market. Successful continue as we win share with existing customers and we…

Rustin Welton

Analyst

Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. I am excited to share our results with you and we'll focus my remarks this morning on three key areas. First, our progress to-date on transforming our model including our cost savings projects, our global ERP implementation and our quality of sales efforts. Second, our fourth quarter results for 2019 and finally our initial outlook for fiscal 2020 and the potential coronavirus impact on our first quarter. We have a lot to cover so let's get started with an update on our key transformational initiatives. Previously we announced the restructuring and cost savings program that is expected to yield more than $50 million in annual savings upon completion. We are executing in two phases and all actions in the first phase have been completed. These actions included exiting unprofitable markets, streamlining our supply chain operations, including closing three manufacturing facilities and consolidating and relocating operations. We projected $20 million to $25 million of annualized savings in 2019 and 2020 from this first phase and we are ahead of schedule with significant benefits accruing for second half results. Phase 2 cost savings of $25 million to $30 million are anticipated to begin in 2021 as global processes and systems began to be implemented to drive global efficiency improvements. Our global ERP and information technology infrastructure projects will continue to be our largest investment to enable the globalization of the business. In 2020 as planned, we will incur a significant one-time cost associated with the implementation and we remain on track with our first scheduled regional go-live in mid-2020. The remaining two regions are scheduled to go-live in 2021. The Phase 2 cost savings that will begin in 2021 will aid in mitigating the effects of the technology investment. Finally, we have undertaken a variety…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Erinn Murphy from Piper Sandler. Your line is now live.

Erinn Murphy

Analyst

Great, thanks. Good morning gentlemen. I guess, my first question, Rustin for you, just on the guidance. Your guidance excludes coronavirus, then you've obviously given some context for Q1, just given the China hit in particular. So are you telling us that the first half revenue was obviously down, but on top of that, Q1 has another 4 percentage point kind of hit? Just trying to marry the two comments, as you exclude it from your guidance, but there is clearly a real-time hit?

Scott Baxter

Analyst

Hey Erinn, how are you? This is Scott. I'm going to go ahead and start and then I'll turn it over to Rustin, because I think it's important that I talk a little bit about the entire situation. It's currently a very fluid situation, but I think it's important for everyone to know, that we are closely monitoring it. One of the things that's been helpful is that we've learned some things from this already happening in Asia. So that has been beneficial for us. We've got a really complete task force on this, of which many on our executive leadership team sit on and we're meeting daily on this sometimes more than that. It's important to note that we have contingency plans in place. So we're pleased with where we are. The one thing that we've done is that we really decided that we're going to base all our decisions on fact. So we're not going to get ahead of ourselves and we're not going to speculate, but we've really tried to base all the decisions and our strategic actions on the facts and what's happening in the marketplace. And I mentioned earlier, and I think this is really important for us in our China business. In the month of January, we were up double digits in that business and we still feel really confident in that business and the people, because nothing about the product, the marketing or the people has changed. And you know, starting to slowly recover. I would say very slowly, but recovery is taking place and normalization is starting to happen at the beginning stages. So we're encouraged by that back here. So with that I'll have Rustin take the rest.

Rustin Welton

Analyst

Yes. Thanks Scott. Good morning, Erinn. In regards to the outlook, we purposely chose to provide the outlook, excluding the impact of coronavirus. And let me emphasize again kind of why we took that path. Obviously, as we talked about, we've had transformational change in 2019 with our actions. And many of these actions will continue to affect the first half, primarily in 2020 as we anniversary those actions. So to answer your question, yes, the 4% would be in addition to the shaping that we provided on the quarters and the outlook, because again the coronavirus impact is excluded. But we thought that was really important and prudent to make sure that everyone understood the true fundamentals of our actions, and how that was affecting our business. Obviously, it's a fluid and dynamic situation. We sized up the Q1 revenue impact, as Scott mentioned, because we want to focus on the fact, and where we are confident. We didn't want to reflect a partial year into the outlook, as it's unclear, the timeline and trajectory this will take, but we did want to provide some color for you, as you start to build your models.

Erinn Murphy

Analyst

Got it. No, that's helpful. Thank you. And then just maybe sticking with this theme, you talked about really strong trends in China pre – effectively COVID-19 breaking out. Can you share a little bit more, what you're seeing now though even if – even as it's in its recovery phase between the digital and the physical within China? Are you seeing any outperformance in digital within China right now? And then I guess secondly, you guys are one of the first companies to report since we've seen this outbreak really accelerate in Europe. Can you talk about what you're seeing now in markets like Italy, in particular?

Scott Baxter

Analyst

So Erinn, this is Scott. So from Asia-China standpoint, we're really pleased with how we position the brands. I think one of the things that's most important for us as we enter the New Year, was that we've got a really good leadership team there, so fairly new. But we talked a little bit about that before. So we put ourselves in an advantaged position in that respect. Also, our product is really good and our marketing is really good. So obviously, we were very encouraged by how it started. I think the one thing that's really important about our business is we're very balanced. So we have a D2C business, we have a digital business. We have both and that really helps us in the marketplace, because we're able to cater to the consumer in any way that they want to go ahead and enjoy our products from that standpoint. So pleased with where we are. It will slowly get itself back to normal, and a lot of confidence going forward in the marketplace. Too early to tell a little bit on Europe. We understand what's going on in Italy right now, that's all kind of fairly new for monitoring it really closely. We don't have a lot of stores there. So we're right now, just kind of dealing with the facts as they come in, because it's a pretty fluid situation.

Erinn Murphy

Analyst

Thanks Scott.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Adrienne Yih from Barclays. Your line is now live.

Adrienne Yih

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. I'm going to start with, focusing on cash flow, one longer-term horizon question. And then Rustin, I'm going to start with sort of just a clarification. So the at least $325 million of cash flow, it includes $30 million to $40 million of the ERP, but can you reconcile that with the adjusted EBITDA, and exclude the $90 million of the ERP and IT expenses? And then for Scott, can you talk about actually the cash flow over the Horizon 1, and as we transition into Horizon 2. So just taking a longer-term view of the cash flow prospects of the business? So I'll start with that. Thank you.

Rustin Welton

Analyst

Yes. Adrienne, good morning, it’s Rustin. Let me go ahead and start with your question around the cash flow. Our guidance was $325 million in operating cash flow. So it wasn't free cash flow. So it does not include the $30 million to $40 million of anticipated capital expenditures associated with the ERP. Obviously in 2019, despite sort of significant one-time restructuring and separation costs, we generated pretty significant operating cash flow. Obviously we've guided in 2020, north of $325 million, which includes some significant working capital improvements. You may recall at the time of the spin, we talked about our cash conversion cycle has softened over the past several years, and we saw up to $100 million of opportunity in working capital as we move forward. We see that opportunity in 2020, and are confident we're going to be able to deliver upon that, and that gain is coming from inventory receivables and payables. So we have programs under way in each of those areas. Obviously, we made significant improvement in inventory in the fourth quarter, and we have some significant opportunities moving forward. As we think about beyond 2020, cash flow is clearly a critical part of our investment thesis, and that's why we placed as much focus on it as we have. So we will continue to move into Horizon 2, as we start to go forward, and that strong cash flow will generate optionality for us. So that could take the place of share repurchase, M&A activities, or additional organic investments into the brand, and obviously the focus in 2020 is going to be on paying this best-in-class dividend, and delevering the balance sheet.

Scott Baxter

Analyst

And Adrienne, I'll just make one comment. I think from my vantage point, the thing that is most encouraging for me and the team is we laid out a strategy for both Horizon 1 and Horizon 2, and as we start to merge closer to Horizon 2, we're watching that strategy to take hold. We're watching and seeing that strategy work, and we're putting ourselves in an advantaged position to go ahead and take advantage of that going-forward. Rustin mentioned the levers that we have, the option to pull. But if you think about how we laid this out, and how it's playing itself out, I couldn't be more pleased with how the team is executing at this standpoint.

Adrienne Yih

Analyst

Great, thank you. Rustin, one quick [Technical Difficulty] what is the assumed margin flow through on the portion that is – that 4% of sales. And at the stores that have reopened, what capacity are they running at? And do you see them improving sort of on a daily or weekly basis? Thank you.

Rustin Welton

Analyst

Yes. Adrienne, I'll go ahead and talk a little bit. Obviously, we didn't dimensionalize the bottom line impact on that flow through in the 4% top line. It's a little too early for that. So I'm not going to dimensionalize that further, in terms of our operations. In terms of the stores, specifically in China, clearly we are starting to see stores and the doors reopen, but we've been very conservative about how we are anticipating kind of that traffic and the comps during the completion in the month of March.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Bob Drbul from Guggenheim. Your line is now live.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Hi guys, good morning. I think you commented on the inventory position. I guess your own inventory versus partner inventory, can you just walk us through in the different areas in terms of where you think inventory levels are in the channels, maybe geographically?

Rustin Welton

Analyst

So, yes. I'll go ahead Bob. It's Rustin. Good morning. I'll start with sort of our owned inventory here. Obviously, we've made market improvement here in the fourth quarter as we had projected. The inventory is in really good shape, as you might expect given our operations. The bulk of the inventory value sits in finished goods here in the U.S., given that's largely where our business sits. And maybe I'll turn it over to one of the other guys to talk a little bit about retail inventory and what you guys are seeing. Tom, maybe you can start?

Tom Waldron

Analyst

Yes. Hey, Bob. This is Tom Waldron. Our inventory ratios at retail are really healthy right now. It's something that our teams in our category management and our approach to managing the business has really enabled us to make sure that we're in good shape from an inventory standpoint, and making sure match well to sales ratios.

Chris Waldeck

Analyst

Bob, this is Chris. On the Lee’s side, same thing with Lee, our inventory levels are in good shape with our partners, both domestically and internationally, and the team, they are on top of it, as it relates to the different moving parts, let's say Coronavirus or others. So we feel good about where we sit right now.

Bob Drbul

Analyst

Okay, great. And if I could just sort of follow up a little bit more on the – I guess China situation generally. I think you gave us a number, the updated number in terms of sourcing in the Western Hemisphere. But in terms of material sourcing, the composition of the denim et cetera, how much of the material are you getting from China? And are you seeing any disruption from sourcing materials when you think about the manufacturing process, throughout the supply chain?

Scott Baxter

Analyst

Hey Bob, how are you, it's Scott? From the standpoint of how we sit and where we stand, one of the things that we've been very fortunate about, you've heard us talk about it a lot, is our internal sourcing capabilities. So we're really confident in that. Obviously in these times, that's been a big strategic advantage. And then the other thing is, the sourced part of it, we're actually in very good shape. Rustin mentioned in his pre-planned comments about the fact that our mills are up and running again, and we've heard from our mill owners that the workforce is back at 75% to 80% plus, which is pretty normal after the Chinese New Year, as people kind of trickle back in. So right now, Bob, things are very fluid. But right now, we're in really good shape and we're – what I mean, monitoring the situation daily and our supply and our sourcing team feel real confident going-forward, as it stands today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Sam Poser from Susquehanna. Your line is now live.

Sam Poser

Analyst

Thank you for taking my questions. I want to follow up the question that Adrienne asked about the EBITDA and the $90 million, and it appears as if you're talking about the EBITDA and what portion goes into SG&A and so on? That $90 million, you're talking about that differently than you did at the beginning in Q2 of last year. Can you give us some color on why that should be regarded as an adjustment this year when it wasn't mentioned last year?

Rustin Welton

Analyst

Yes. Sam. So at the time of the spin – this is Rustin, good morning. At the time of the spin, we talked about having up to $115 million of one-time items associated with the separation. And ERP was the largest piece of that. So when we provided guidance for 2019, we only spoke about the CapEx portion, because we only guided on CapEx. Obviously, as we're starting to move through the implementation cycle, 2020 will be the heaviest year for those one-time expenses and we remain on TSAs with VF Corporation, until really the next 18 months to 24 months after the spin. So those expenses are showing up here. We're just making sure that we're not double counting for the investments we're making with the ERP system.

Sam Poser

Analyst

Thank you. And then, I want to follow up on first quarter, and this may be a little bit of beating the horse a bit, but the sales that come down aren't necessarily going to be recovered next year like, if people were going to buy a pair of jeans this year and they didn't buy it, doesn't mean they're going to buy two pairs in first quarter of next year, in which case, these are sort of legit lost sales relative to what you know and you've already talked about it as they hit. So why wouldn't this be in the guidance despite the fact that you're making good progress with all of your various initiatives, from a long-term basis? And then, because I mean, what is that impact in the first quarter beyond the 4%? Because you can't really take it out as a non-GAAP adjustment when the dust settles, here versus the $355 million to $365 million guidance that you gave for the full year?

Rustin Welton

Analyst

Yeah. Sam, it's interesting, I'll go ahead and start. You know as we think about the actions that we're taking in the first half or the implications, we thought it was important to provide the cadence, as it relates to the quarter from a revenue perspective, because we have taken these actions in 2019 and we'll continue to see headwinds until the anniversary. So that's what we're reflecting in the guidance. We did not include the coronavirus piece, because we absolutely wanted to make sure that it was clear for people what those headwinds would be from the actions we took this year. And so, hopefully, that gives you a better sense of the cadence of the first half and the quarterly piece, excluding the coronavirus piece.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We reached end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Scott Baxter for any further or closing comments.

Scott Baxter

Analyst

Thank you for joining us today. While the conditions are dynamic, our underlying fundamentals are improving. Our cash flow generation is robust and we are uniquely positioned to generate significant value creation for our shareholders over time. Thanks again and we look forward to speaking with all of you on our first quarter call. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.