David Ferguson
Analyst · Citigroup
All right. Thank you, Mikheil. So just to run quickly through the performance, financial performance of the respective parts of the business, starting with payments. Demand volumes remained robust and consistent throughout the first half of the year. Volumes up 14% year-on-year in the second quarter, up 15% year-on-year for the first half. Faster TPV growth versus volumes is a function of higher ticket size. Inflation, up 21% year-on-year in the second quarter, up 22% year-on-year for the first half. So again, strong and consistent trends with, as usual, sort of 3 key products: Kaspi Pay, B2B and bill payments or contributing take rate move down, a function of mix effect, again, consistent with what you've seen now over the last couple of years. Basically, as QR grows in the mix, its take rate dilutive, but this is consistent with the long run trend. Payments revenue up 16% in the second quarter. So even with take rate dilution ahead of volume growth, volume growth was 14% in the second quarter. So that also reflects both strong volume growth but also good growth in liquidity revenue. And then again, as you've consistently seen with the payment business, strong top line drops through to the bottom line. So faster bottom line, high profitability and faster profitability growth, up 19% in the second quarter of the year and up 20% for the first half of the year. Moving on to marketplace. Again, marketplace demand overall remains very strong and consistent, up 35% year-on-year in the second quarter, up 36% year-on-year for the first half. GMV growth is lower than volume growth. Although we did hold Juma in the second quarter and it was successful overall in the second quarter. Number one, we ran fewer promotional campaigns. And number two, as Mikheil talked about, declining smartphone sales down 17% year-on-year in the second quarter. That impacts GMV. It doesn't really impact volumes to the same extent, but smartphones are a higher ticket item, so it's more apparent at the GMV level. Despite that, strong take rate improvement being driven, as usual, by advertising revenue, delivery revenue and revenue from classifieds, take rate moving up 70 basis points year-on-year in both the second quarter and in the second -- in the first half of the year that will feed through to faster revenue growth. If you break it down by the respective marketplace segments, decent e-commerce GMV growth, up 22% year-on-year in the second quarter, up 23% year-on-year in the first half. If you exclude the smartphone category, e-commerce growth in the second quarter would have been up 31% year-on-year. Take rate moving up 120 bps in the second quarter and 130 basis points improvement year-on-year for the first half. So pretty decent take rate expansion. m-Commerce, slower growth, also just like e-commerce, impacted by smartphones, but also m-Commerce is being impacted by the structural trend of offline merchants moving to online. The beauty of our business model as we capture both and m-Commerce, actually, that relationship with the off-line merchants is a source of competitive advantage relative to online-only merchants. So solid growth and solid take-rate trends, around 9% in both the second quarter and first half of the year. Travel continues to deliver good results. GMV growth of 16% in the second quarter, up 19% year-on-year in the first half of the year, helped still by international tours that we launched approximately 18 months to two years ago and international tours have also contribute drive that take rate expansion here also. So 50 bps of take rate expansion year-on-year in the second quarter and 60 bps in the first half of the year. We'd expect international tours to remain growth and take-rate additive in the second half of the year, and we'd expect domestic tours, Mikheil just talked about them, to increasingly kick in as well over the next 12 months. So a decent outlook for travel. With take-rate moving off, revenue growth is ahead of GMV growth, so revenue growth for marketplace was up 25% year-on-year in the second quarter versus the GMV growth I showed you above 15% and for the first half, up 29% versus GMV growth of 17%. So overall, pretty healthy revenue growth expansion for marketplace and also decent bottom line growth of 13% and 16% year-on-year in the second quarter and first half, respectively, albeit the ongoing trend as e-Grocery grows in the mix that is a lower-margin business, but overall, good result for Marketplace. And then on finally, in Kazakhstan, Fintech origination remains pretty healthy, up 17% year-on-year in both the second quarter and the first half of the year. As you've consistently seen over the last couple of years that origination growth is being driven first and foremost by our merchant and micro business finance products. They grow at a faster rate, continue to grow at a faster rate than our consumer lending products. The average loan portfolio saw strong growth, up 33% year-on-year in both periods. This is a lead indicator for future revenue growth and set stable pricing trends, flat year-on-year in both the second quarter and the first half. The deposit growth is also now starting to see decent growth of 18% year-on-year in the second quarter, 19% year-on-year in the first half. And what you see here is that we raised rates in April. We started to promote the new deposit products more widely and month- on-month trends in the deposit base have started to improve with June, seeing the strongest month-on-month growth year-to-date. June deposits being at the highest level year to date. So the trend is now moving in the direction that we wanted to see. So it's good for the future that, that is coming through the healthy deposit growth. Risk trends remain stable, flat year-on-year. Cost of risk, 0.6% in the second quarter of the year and NPL trends have moved slightly but not materially, and would expect them to remain at around these levels or somewhere between where they were at the end of last year and current levels for the remainder of the year. The lower coverage reflects the growth in the car loan product, which is a collateralized product and therefore, requires lower coverage. And again, that has been a trend over the last 12 months as the car loan product is scaled. So a decent Fintech origination and stable pricing trends. That has translated into healthy revenue growth of 21% year-on-year in the second quarter, up 19% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Higher interest rates have impacted bottom line growth as we indicated they would at the time of our first quarter results. You see that up 8% in the second quarter and for the first half of the year, but the deposits are delivering what they're expected to do. They will help us capture more transactions or fund more transactions in the future. And when and if rates move down, Fintech will be a dramatic beneficiary. Profitability will be a dramatic beneficiary of that. That wraps up the Kazakhstan side of the business, moving to Hepsiburada in Turkey. Just to remind people, Hepsiburada, published its financial results on Thursday of last week, so its detailed financials are available on the Hepsiburada Investor Relations website. But what is clear in the second quarter, a much better performance versus the first quarter of the year. Here, you see that volumes moved back into positive territory, up 7% year-on-year in the second quarter versus down 2% year-on-year for the first half. The combination of growing volumes and mid-single-digit ticket expansion translated into decent GMV growth, up 16% in the second quarter versus down 1% for the first half of the year. This GMV growth is in real terms, is inflation adjusted and overall is a reflection of recovery in the retail environment post March, number one. Company-specific initiatives, number two, particularly in the 1P side of the business, which grew faster than 3P during the quarter and also favorable base effect second quarter of last year -- or first quarter and second quarter of last year were impacted by the timing of the election in the first quarter of last year was strong to base. With good and improving revenue growth, up 23%, helped by growth in 1P and helped by delivery initiatives -- helped by the growth of the delivery platform. That translated into faster bottom line or faster EBITDA growth, up 42% in the second quarter, which is illustrative of the actual strong sort of operational gearing that exists in this business and can be seen as the revenue growth comes through and improves. Net income was negative, underlying sort of losses decline was small and declined materially year-on-year, TRY 243 million in the second quarter, an improvement versus a loss of TRY 434 million in the second quarter of last year, but also there were -- that's only around $6 million but there are also some one-offs related both to credit provisioning. This is related to Hepsi's existing credit products. So this should not be confused with our planned acquisition, the banking license in Turkey and the products suite we will launch in the future. That acquisition is still on track to complete in the second half. So it reflects existing product set. And also one- offs primarily related to Hepsiburada international. But overall, good underlying trends in all aspects of Hepsi business in the second quarter of the year. So for Kaspi KZ, the second quarter, exactly as we expected it to be. Trends in line with our full year guidance. And also actually with Hepsiburada moving as we expected it to be and its losses ultimately small in the context of Kaspi KZ, number one, and small in the context of the opportunity that exists in Turkey. Finally, guidance in Kazakhstan reiterated. The third quarter has started well, and we are on track exactly where we expect to be. And just to clarify on capital returns. As you know, we have always had and we continue to have an extremely cash-generative business in our core market. We told you that this year was about making investments in international, Turkey, to ensure strong future growth for many years to come. We've made good progress completing the final -- the acquisition of Hepsiburada. The final payment was made in June. We're on track to close the banking license acquisition in the second half of this year. So as we move into 2026, we expect to be able to once again have capital returns to our shareholders in much the same way as the case between 2020 and prior to the Hepsi acquisition. Capital returns can include both dividends and buybacks with a decision being made at the appropriate time. So that's it on Kazakhstan and Turkey. I think with that, we can open the call up to Q&A.