Robert Paratte
Analyst · Scotiabank
Sure. Nick, and hello, everybody. Let me start with some highlights that I think may address questions that others have. And there are 4 key ones I'd like to make. What we're seeing on the ground and this isn't necessarily just strictly our 5 markets that we operate in, I think it's a national trend. But the office will remain the center of the work ecosystem. It may change in its configuration, but it's going to remain the place where people come to conduct meetings and collaborate. And we're seeing companies, both our clients and others spending a lot of money on their office space. So I think that's one important point. Hybrid work is going to be given. We know that. The third point I'd make is that the net impact of hybrid work, we think, is going to be minimal in terms of space demand reduction or footprint shrinkage. Recently, CBRE conducted a survey nationally of 185 companies and only 9% of those surveyed expect to experience a decrease in square footage. So I think that's really telling. And as John alluded to in his comments, health, safety and wellness are going to continue to be a very high importance to employees. So you will see a flight to quality, as we've talked about, to buildings that provide that sort of outdoor space stairwells where you can walk rather than take elevators, et cetera. Going into the markets, just some overall general again, highlights, true activity across our 5 markets has continued to increase particularly in San Francisco, restaurants, retail and hospitality are visibly improved in terms of just sheer numbers of people in the streets and bars and restaurants. Driving in this week to San Francisco it's truly amazing at 08:00 or 8:30 in the morning, seeing the number of people that are in coffee houses and coffee shops, gathering and enjoying one another. Our parking garage here where John and I office at 101st 2 months ago was relatively empty. And today, and yesterday, they already had the full sign out. So the traffic is back, and we're starting to see a major increase in parking occupancy. What I would say another interesting note is that despite all of the work-from-home and postponement of people coming back in conversations with many of our clients, a large majority of them have opened up offices on a voluntary basis to people, and you can see that in the lobbies of various buildings, particularly in San Francisco. With relation to office occupancy, Austin is probably the leader in the country with almost 50% occupancy. San Francisco and San Jose are trailing other metro areas at roughly 20%. But those 2 markets are increasing fairly quickly, primarily because San Francisco relapsed its mask mandate on October 15. The last thing I'd say is the general commentary is that real estate executives are focusing on 2 primary things today when they're doing their planning. It's what will hybrid work models look like, and what will these work models mean in terms of future space requirements and needs within the office environment. And then I'll just touch on our markets quickly, and then if you have more questions, go ahead. San Diego, let's start at the South and work North. San Diego's large tech and local VC-backed companies are extremely active right now. To be honest, fire category and legal requirements are slower to emerge, but we're starting to see an uptick. I know people have questions about 2100 Kettner. We've seen a pretty significant uptick in activity. In fact, last week, we had 3 tours alone. We received a RFP yesterday and we are pursuing a multi-tenant strategy at the project based on the activity we're experiencing today. In Los Angeles, more positive news, and I think it's really focused in the Culver City, Hollywood and West L.A. portions of the market. We're seeing a reduction of space on the market as sublease space is either leased or taken off the market, particularly in West L.A. Continued expansion of gaming, media and technology companies are focused on West L.A., Culver City and Santa Monica, and there's demonstrated proof just by the absorption. Recent new significant deals in the market are Apple, Roku, Hulu, Activision, Snap, Riot, Sony and Amazon. And that's very encouraging compared to where we were a year ago with particularly the West side, where there was more sublease space on the market that had been there for quite a while. Quality assets, and I would say this is sort of a general comment in our markets, quality Class A assets that are well located are able to hold rates. Here and there, there may be some added concessions, but generally, there is a flight to quality and landlords are able to maintain rates. San Francisco, again, we are hoping that we've plateaued and started to see a slight decrease in sublease space. We're down to 7 million square feet from 9 million square feet. We have -- in Q3, which is pretty encouraging, 2.25 million square feet of lease deals signed, which brings us to a total of 3.9 million square feet for year-to-date. That's the highest level of activity since Q4 of 2019. So we're watching this very closely and hoping that we are turning the corner here. Right now, today, there are 7 tenants in the market, over 100,000 square feet. One thing I'd like to finish with San Francisco because, again, it probably out of our markets has the most sublease space and has been the focus of many questions and that sort of thing is that the city really is going to -- moving into a haves and have nots. And to illustrate that point, I'd point out that for trophy buildings, most landlords on average have increased their asking rates to an average of $98.36 a foot on a fully serviced basis. And when you contrast that with Class B buildings, they've been lowering their asking rates to $72 a foot. So there's a real disparity between Class A trophy and Class B space and sublease space would fall into that latter category. And that data is borne out by JLL. So again, we're watching that closely. Luckily, we don't have a lot of space available right now. And so we see continued improvement in San Francisco. And again, as I said earlier, hopefully, we're plateauing. South San Francisco is a great story. I could go on and on, but we're very pleased with the activity we have. We are -- we have just started our Phase 2 at Kilroy Oyster Point, we're seeing very strong demand when we deliver in and around '23. We think the window will be optimal, given that there's very little product competing with us at that time. And I would -- the last thing I'd say about South San Francisco is projects that are vertical meaning they're under construction and starting to appear in the skyline are either fully leased or the space is largely committed. So again, we're feeling very good about, not only the absorption of space but also what we see happening with rental rates in San Francisco. Moving to Seattle, again, just a very good story, particularly for 1.5 years, we talked about how strong the Bellevue market is. But the CBD of Seattle is really coming into its own, sublease space has continued to decline. We've seen rental rates tick up slightly in Class A, again, trophy, well-located product, the Rainier Square new product that Amazon has been subleasing in the CBD, the traditional CBD continues to have a lot of activity and it's leasing up. And so we think that bodes really well for our recent West 8th acquisition, which is in the most highly amenitized modern portion of the market. And we also are noticing that, that shift toward this modern amenity base in and around the West 8th area where our SIX0 project is creating more interest from companies even outside of the Seattle area. So more to come on that, but Seattle is really coming into its own. The last market I would probably want to focus on is Austin. We're very pleased, as John said, with what we have going on in Austin. We have over 200,000 square feet of activity at our building right now in some stages of documentation. I don't want to make any promises about timing. Those companies sort of run the range from professional services to tech. And the last thing I would note is that there are 2 pending. I think I've said this before, during BAML. There are 2 large pending transactions that total over 900,000 square feet that are imminent in the CBD, and that bodes even better for R&D tower. There also was 1 large transaction -- tech transaction that closed in the domain submarket that was over 300,000 feet. So all in all, that's the wrap-up on the markets, and we're feeling better about everything we're seeing in each of the submarkets.