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Kilroy Realty Corporation (KRC)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 29, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Q3 2013 Kilroy Realty Corp Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jasmine, and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Tyler Rose, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed.

Tyler Rose

Management

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are John Kilroy; Jeff Hawken; Eli Khouri; David Simon; Heidi Roth; and Michelle Ngo. At the outset I need to say that some of the information we will be discussing is forward looking in nature. Please refer to our supplemental package for statements regarding the forward-looking information in this call and in the supplemental. This call is being telecast live on our website and will be available for replay for the next seven days, both by phone and over the Internet. Our press release and supplemental package have been filed on a Form 8-K with the SEC and both are also available on our website. John will start the call with an overview of the quarter, Jeff will review the conditions in our key markets, and I’ll finish up with financial highlights and updated earnings guidance for 2013. Then we’ll be happy to take your questions. John?

John Kilroy

Management

Thank you, Tyler. Hello, everyone and thank you for joining us today. We had another greater quarter with quality execution across all fronts including leasing, capital recycling, acquisitions, redevelopment, development and our balance sheet. And we are poised to launch the next set of development projects to expand our portfolio and fuel our growth. Let me start with leasing where we continue to generate excellent results. We are on pace with last year’s record leasing year and signed or new or renewing leases on the 510,000 square feet at rental rates that were 7% higher on a cash basis and 21% higher on a GAAP basis. In addition, we have another 639,000 square feet of in place letters of intent. This solid leasing performance continued to boost our occupancy, as we ended the quarter with our stabilized portfolio, 92.2% occupied and 93.7% leased. We were successful in extracting $0.05 per share cash payment from a former tenant driving our FFO to $0.69 for quarter. We made significant progress on our capital recycling program during the quarter. We negotiated dispositions on 70 nonstrategic properties and 3 separate transactions and we will recycle the proceeds into higher value acquisition development opportunities. The first of three transactions, the sale of an older, mostly vacant 60,000 square feet property in Orange County closed earlier this month, generating proceeds of approximately $10 million. We anticipate the remaining two transactions for 13 properties, all located in San Diego will close by yearend. In acquisitions, we completed our purchase of the heights in Del Mar, a transaction we announced last quarter. The Class A office campus is located one of San Diego’s strongest submarkets and is adjacent to our one for sale development project. The Del Mar market continues to outperform with rental rates for the top…

Jeff Hawken

Management

Thanks John. Hello, everyone. I am happy to report that all of our key markets continue to exhibit economic growth and improving commercial real estate fundamentals. Across California, most costal markets continue to see unemployment trending down and job growth trending up. Since the State’s jobs market bottomed out in February 2010, California has added over 825,000 net new jobs, including 224,000 in the last 12 months. And in the State of Washington greater Seattle’s strong demographics continue to create jobs with the second largest year-over-year drop in unemployment among the country’s top market. Let’s take a market by market look. The Bay Area is ahead of the national economy evidenced by job growth and leading edge productivity and has established itself as the center of technology and information. The region led the nation in tech job growth over the past five years with more than a 50% growth rate. San Francisco had an amazing third quarter, with both absorption and demand moving closer to peak 2012 levels. While the pace over the last couple of years of mega transactions has taken a breather, we are starting to see demand for the 100,000 square foot transactions increase over the last few quarters. The city continues to have the lowest vacancy rate in the country. We are currently 94% leased in the Bay area. Seattle remains a close second in overall performance; Seattle was recently ranked as the sixth strongest overall economy in the country by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. In our primary Seattle submarkets of Bellevue and Lake Union, Class A vacancy rates declined to 6.2% and 3.9% respectively and rents have continued to increase. In Bellevue there are currently only two available blocks of space greater than 50,000 square feet or so and they are both in older,…

Tyler Rose

Management

Thanks Jeff. FFO was $0.69 per share in the third quarter, which included the $0.05 cash payment related to a prior tenant default. The net of $0.64 included $0.01 of acquisition related expenses, about a penny from the equity offering and a penny from lease termination fee. So if you add back these adjustments, our core FFO would have been $0.65 per share, up $0.02 from our internal forecast. You will note that in our financials, we have classified the 14 properties that we are in the process of selling or have sold as held for sale properties as of the end of the third quarter. Excluding the held for sale properties, we ended the third quarter with stabilized occupancy at 92.2%. Including the held for sale properties, our occupancy would have been 91.5%. Our stabilized portfolio was now 93.7% leased. Same-store NOI in the third quarter increased 1.8% on a cash basis and 1.1% on a GAAP basis. This does not include the $0.05 per share of cash payment we received from the prior term in the third quarter as this property is included in discontinued ops. It does include legal expenses related to the one-time payment received in the second quarter. Stripping out those legal costs, third quarter same-store NOI on a cash basis would have been up 2.7%. CapEx was higher in the third quarter, primarily due to increased cost for early lease renewals that Jeff mentioned and one significant tenant improvement allowance from a lease executed in 2011. We raised equity capital during the third quarter, completing a public offering of approximately 6.2 million shares of common at $50 per share for net proceeds of $296 million, and our ATM program generated just over $11 million. With regard to capital recycling, we sold a 15 million…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Josh Attie from Citi. Please proceed.

Josh Attie - Citi

Analyst

So you’re moving forward with Columbia Square Crossing/900 and 333 brand in the fourth quarter and then Del Mar early next year. There is no leasing done at these properties yet but you did note a pretty active pipeline in your prepared remarks. When we open up supplementals three or six months from now, should we expect the pipeline to be highly preleased or do you see yourself taking more risk on this brand of projects?

John Kilroy

Management

Well, we certainly hope that that’s going to be as highly preleased based upon the discussions we’re having in all these areas, we have multiple tenants interested in significant space at rents that are at or in some cases significantly above those with performance. So we feel pretty good based upon the demand that we are seeing and the negotiations that we’re having.

Josh Attie - Citi

Analyst

Is preleasing a requirement for some of these starts in your mind in the fourth quarter?

John Kilroy

Management

I’ve made it clear with regard to the projects that we’ve mentioned here that we felt very comfortable for the last couple of quarters that we would start them without preleasing, although we think we will have significantly seen during the next several quarters.

Josh Attie - Citi

Analyst

And then on Columbia Square, I know you had talked about bringing in a capital partner for the residential piece previously. Is that still your intention?

John Kilroy

Management

Well, like you’ve said, we’ll bring in an operating partner. Whether it’s a capital partner or not, I don’t think we signaled that but we do have somebody that we’re close to concluding negotiations with. We thought we were going to do it with somebody else. We ended up making what we feel is the better transaction with a better operator that we should be announcing, I would think in the next quarter conference call.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman from Bank of America. Please proceed.

James Feldman - Bank of America

Analyst

I was hoping we could do a little deeper just in terms of the amount of demand in San Francisco, L. A. and San Diego. I guess starting with San Francisco, just you’d mentioned 100,000 square foot and larger tenants seem to be picking up even more. Can you talk about that? And then L. A. kind of exactly which submarkets do you talk about where things are better and then just San Diego in general?

John Kilroy

Management

Sure. Starting with San Francisco, I was talking with one of the top brokers in the market earlier today and his view of things is pretty much what we see and basically what it was is that the leasing in the first half of ’13 didn’t look as robust compared to the banner year that we saw last year. On the other hand what we’re seeing is that demand and lease activity has really picked up in the third quarter. And his view and I know the view of other brokers and we’re seeing this in our own properties is the demand seems to be up substantially now in the fourth quarter. That’s what we saw last year as well. So the way to think about this is that there are a couple large blocks of space, that I think will get leased within the next six to nine months and I think what you’ll see in San Francisco sometime within the next year, maybe eight months out is a significant additional spike in rents. We’re seeing rents over the course for the last 12 months go from an -- and now this is an average across all buildings, an average around $50 to around $56 today, and people are getting close to asking rent. So obviously some buildings get much better, some buildings don’t do as well. If you’re a 15,000 square foot user or a 10,000 square foot user and you’re looking for commodity space, you can find it in 30 year so different locations within the city. A lot of that’s over in the northern financial district. If you’re looking for technology, open collaborative space most of that wants to be over south of market and people having a hard time finding that. In the case of…

James Feldman - Bank of America

Analyst

Can you talk a little bit about the risk of supply and how you’re thinking about it?

John Kilroy

Management

Okay, well, yes, there is supply coming on stream and some of that’s been talked for a while, but just bear with me for a second Jamie. In terms of San Francisco right now, you have Foundry Square III, which is 285,000 square feet. We understand that that building is somewhere in neighborhood 80% leased now or greater based upon what the brokers are saying. You have 535 Mission which is 290,000 square feet, which is next to our 100 First building on Mission Street, which Boston Properties is doing. I don’t what their leasing status is. That’s a building that, you don’t have smaller floors. We have 50 Hawthorne which has 53,000 square feet. That’s a Boston Properties’ building and they could speak to that more clearly than I, but I’m sure will do very well. We have 333 Brannan, which is 170,000 square feet that will come on and those buildings I just mentioned by the way are Foundry Square III, 535 Mission, 50 Hawthorne all come on stream either early or late 2014 and 2015 you have 333 Brannan which is 170,000 feet. You have 222nd Street which is Tishman Speyer and JP Morgan 450,000 feet, which is I think a 27 storey building. You have 270 Brannan which is a 200,000 square feet building and you have 345 Brannan, which is currently in an appeals period. So I don’t when that get done, but that’s about 100,000 feet. And then looking at 2015, assuming this project proceeds as quickly as possible to completion, you have 181 Freemont which is a combination condo tower and office building on the lower levels. It has about 400,000 square feet of office. And then in 2017 plus or minus, you have the Transbay Tower and you could talk about some…

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of David Toti from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed.

David Toti - Cantor Fitzgerald

Analyst

Just two quick questions. The first, you’ve spoken quite a bit John, about market strength and we’ve seen it first hand in trying some of your markets recently. But it seems that the tenant improvement numbers continued to tick up but I know those are kind of lumpy. But are you seeing a commensurate improvement in sort of tenanting costs that’s going on with some of the sort of pricing power in the market strength or is that really going to lag into the next year, in your opinion?

John Kilroy

Management

Well, it bounces around. I mean, one thing that we typically do, frankly sometimes we could criticize more, but we tend to do longer leases than shorter leases. Say you end up a little bit more TI allowance, but it’s lumpy. Tyler you’ve got the map. It was up this quarter over the last quarter. A lot of that just deals with the nature of the transactions. It’s kind of all over the lot but, but I think anytime you see an improvement in market demands, particularly when you get down into under 10% vacancy that generally you have to give less TI and you get better rents and all the other terms and so that’s the trend I think we are going to see. It’s just lumpy.

David Toti - Cantor Fitzgerald

Analyst

We may see some strengthening in the beginning part of next year, over 14 event.

John Kilroy

Management

Well, yes, again it depends on the assets and the markets. As Jeff mentioned, all of our markets are seeing pretty good fundamentals. Some are infinitely better than others. It’s hard to compare San Francisco and West LA, or San Francisco and San Diego. But I do think we will see a trend, but there will be the occasional lump here and there. That’s just the nature of our business.

David Toti - Cantor Fitzgerald

Analyst

Okay. And then I just have one very luck [ph] filled question. Have you guys considered partnering with BXP on the Transbay project?

John Kilroy

Management

No, we didn’t consider. Before BXP we haven’t considered it, that we have announced.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Gabe Hilmoe from UBS. Please proceed.

Gabe Hilmoe - UBS

Analyst

Maybe a quick question for Jeff. In terms of the 14 leased roll and I guess the million square feet expiry, are there any known move outs expected that we should be thinking about?

Jeff Hawken

Management

Yes, as I mentioned in my remarks, we’ve got two in the first quarter in San Diego. Both, it’s a 130,000 and another building is 120,000. One of those was actually re-leased and we’ve got activity on the second. And then we’ve got a 60,000 square foot building in the third quarter in San Diego that’s likely to move out a little, we don’t know for sure. So out of the four leases of 50,000 square feet, I’ve dealt with three. The other one is in LA and we are in the process of renewing that one.

Gabe Hilmoe - UBS

Analyst

Then John, just a quick one for you. Just on the comments regarding Seattle and the occupancy and rent trends there, where does that market need to get to where you become more comfortable expanding in a bigger way there?

John Kilroy

Management

Well I would love to see us grow for the right assets. We are, I don't want to say a slave, but we’re very, very focused on what I call my circles and squares. If it's not in a zone we want to be in we’re not going to do it. If it’s not a building with a physicality, whether we can develop or buy, that really fits the modern tenant, we’re not going to do it, and then of course it's a question of where we can make money and so forth. With regards to, the two markets that we like up there are South Lake Union. We bought there and we're not developing anything there, unless we find something that is unique, I think we have missed most likely the South Lake Union build development in this current cycle, because there is too many people ahead of us. Things could change, we could end up partnering with somebody. We’re not having any discussions to that. So who knows. In Bellevue, we bought the buildings that we thought were really good. We passed on the other ones that came up. There is some more that are going to transact. There are older, 70s or 80s style buildings that don't fit our square, don't fit our physicality. They’re well located. I just don't get real comfortable in that. From a development standpoint there is a couple of sites that can be developed in Bellevue. There is a handful of them, some are far better than others and the rents are not far off where ultimately it could justify construction. We're looking at those kinds of things as we do in each and every market. I’m not signaling anything. But I think we’re at the point where we’ve moved pretty quickly…

Operator

Operator

And your next question the line of Craig Mailman from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Craig Mailman - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

Just curious on the San Diego sale, are you guys willing to give a contract price on that or maybe just ballpark of how far above book?

Tyler Rose

Management

No, we’re not going to discuss purchase point at this point. As John said we’re hoping to close by the end of the year. We typically don't discuss the purchase price until we close the transactions and we had put the carrying value on to our balance sheet for the help of sale, but that really has no relation to the purchase price. So you can't really use that number.

Craig Mailman - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

I guess maybe another way, are you guys going to blow through the high end of the $300 million disposition guidance for the year?

Tyler Rose

Management

We're feeling comfortable with where we're at. That's as far as we're going to go until the people have gone hard, it's a close in December. But one thing that we have learned and I have put my foot in my mouth too many times on these calls talking about deals and everybody reads our transcripts, whether it's our competitors that are private or public or tenants or brokers and sometimes it works against this negotiation. So we have to be a little bit more cautious.

Craig Mailman - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Analyst

That’s fair. And just curious, moving to San Francisco you guys were early, have kind of benefited from that and you are still developing there. Just curious what your thoughts are on potentially taking some shifts off the table there to redeploy into the developments, rather than sell assets in the markets or hit the equity market again.

John Kilroy

Management

We're always looking; we got a building or two that we’re looking at, nothing that I want to signal at this time. Most of the buildings are multi-tenant. There is still lot of upside we think to manage the rollovers or the renewals in those assets. But we're obviously; we're not married to any asset. I mean I love all our buildings and sometimes I love it when somebody else buys them at a great price.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Vance Edelson from Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Vance Edelson - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

First on the penny of acquisitions related expense, we haven't seen that called out since I think the fourth quarter of last year when you were very active acquiring. In fact we had a couple of quarters or maybe just one that had acquisitions but no special mention of the expenses. So is the $0.01 this quarter largely in line with what you would expect for one acquisition or for any reason were the expenses higher this time?

John Kilroy

Management

There was no particular reason to call it out, whether it was higher or lower. We had the one acquisition during the quarter, which was the main, we look at several acquisitions and there are some costs with dead deals as well that we have to put into that account. But most of it related to the high tender market.

Vance Edelson - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

And then on the future development pipeline in San Diego, it’s still largely PBD on the start date. How does this fit with your big picture views on San Diego? You’ve obviously provided some pretty favorable commentary for quarter two in a row now. So in your mind, when might it make sense to proceed with some of the projects?

John Kilroy

Management

I can see starting what we call Lot 8, which is in Sorrento Mesa, it’s about a $75 million 180,000 square foot office building. I could see the potential starting in that sometime in the not too distant future based upon visible demand and the positive space that’s available in Class A. I could see starting the building that I mentioned in my comments that it’s roughly somewhere around 80,000 feet plus or minus, this part of the heights in Del Mar, that we’re having discussions with people on that building right now. The numbers make a lot of sense. And then we have some negotiations going on that we’ve mentioned before in connection with Santa Fe Summit where the major user, and most of you know who it is and I’m not going to verify that is who you think it is or not, just because I don’t want to go there. But we have a potential transaction that it’s too early to handicap but we are having discussions for somebody that would take all of Santa Fe Summit plus some property that we would acquire next door and that could be a very large transaction, very large.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Michael Knott from Green Street Advisors. Please proceed.

Michael Knott - Green Street Advisors

Analyst

Hey guys, everything sounds mostly positive. But I’m curious on, it looks like you’re getting a nice occupancy pop from selling the San Diego assets but sounds like the full year -- the year end occupancy guidance isn’t really changing that materially. Just curious if you hadn’t done the sale, would your guidance be coming down a little bit in terms of that specific occupancy figure or am I just not processed that way?

John Kilroy

Management

No, it would come down. Again it’s within a range here, we’re talking 50 basis points but it would have come down potentially a little bit. In our original forecast which we included the disposition properties, we had assumed some leasing in that portfolio. So that would have helped the numbers. So we think we’ll do a little bit better that we had done before.

Michael Knott - Green Street Advisors

Analyst

Okay, and then just looking at the light role for 2014 and then also in 2016. Is this going to be the part of the cycle where we start to see exceptionally high occupancy rates for your portfolio, like we’ve seen in the past just because the role is going to be -- you’ve mitigated some of that?

John Kilroy

Management

That’s the plan.

Michael Knott - Green Street Advisors

Analyst

Okay, and then rents expiring next year, a little bit below your portfolio average and it sounds like the portfolio average is below market. Is that even more true of next year’s expiries?

John Kilroy

Management

Yes, for ’14 our current projections are roughly 4% - 5% under market.

Michael Knott - Green Street Advisors

Analyst

Okay, and then any color on one for sale? It sounds like the homeowners there and the local groups are still somewhat against your project?

John Kilroy

Management

I think it’s always a loud minority that are against everything. We feel that the project is far better positioned now, than it was earlier in the year when we had this disgusting mare [ph] down there that has handed out everywhere including in places you got thrown out of office for and I guess that’s the best way I can say it. But we’ve had very constructive meetings with the planning department and so forth and we’re optimistic that we’re going to see approval next year and if we do, we think we have a just an absolute homerun project.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Brendan Maiorana from Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Brendan Maiorana - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

I just wanted to get a little more detail. I think you guys had mentioned 639,000 square feet of leases under LOI. Can you just kind of give a breakout of what’s maybe new leasing versus renewal and sort of what that implies for occupancy? And maybe John as you said, does that sort of portend that you could reach those very high occupancy numbers next year, given the level of leases under LOI?

Jeff Hawken

Management

Sure, this is Jeff. On the 639,000 of LOIs, 51% is new and 49% of that number is renewal.

Brendan Maiorana - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

And if I look at the spread between the leased and the occupied rate, it’s 150 basis points today. How do you think that -- is that a good mid cycle number for KRC or do you think that you can kind of narrow that spread, such as the occupancy moves up even if the lease rate doesn’t as we look out over the next several quarters?

Jeff Hawken

Management

Yes, I mean it’s really it’s hard to predict that spread because if you do one large lease, we can move that number substantially. I think the 93.7% leased, once you get to sort ‘94 - ‘95 here, it’s frictional vacancy. So I don’t think your lease percentage is going to go much above that but it’s hard to handicap that spread.

Brendan Maiorana - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

And then Tyler, I think we talked a little bit about this last quarter but it seems like the expenses, the operating expenses have been higher this year and maybe there are just some anomalous things that have happened in the quarters but is that something that we should expect OpEx to start to normalize and flat line as we go out over the next few quarters or do you think that there is still just pressure on operating expenses and that increases are likely as we go forward?

Tyler Rose

Management

Well, some of those of operating expense increases are related to the legal fees that we have incurred as part of the onetime gain that we got in the second quarter as I mentioned. So, that shouldn’t continue to hit the numbers on a normalized basis. So we also had utility insurance and tax increases but some of that we get recovered on. So I wouldn’t expect the same level of increases because overtime we’re going to work through those legal issues and we won’t have the legal expenses.

Brendan Maiorana - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

I mean is this year, just seemed like it’s been where you guys have been hit a little bit, as we go out next year if you’re able to get revenue increases comparable to what you’ve shown, your same store numbers probably likely move higher.

Tyler Rose

Management

Yes, I think so. Again, we haven’t given guidance for 2014 yet and we’ll do that in the next quarter’s call but our margins average in the 70% range and that should continue. So at this point we think we should see some more improvement next year but we’ll provide more details on that on the next call.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of John Guinee from Stifel. Please proceed.

John Guinee - Stifel

Analyst

In anticipation of NAREIT in a few weeks, probably Eli, but maybe also David Simon wants to chip in; can you talk about what’s on the market for sale and what kind of pricing you’re expecting and the big deals that are floating around in each of your markets?

Eli Khouri

Analyst

This is Eli. In terms of just specifically, we had talked a long time about Q4 being an increase in what’s available and we’ve actually seen that. Right now, I would say that in the market there are two really super core assets. One is Century Plaza down in Century City, that Dave can talk about it if we needed to give you other details and up here 101 Second Street, which I think are those, at least parts of that, particularly the good building down in Century City, that the best building are really core and it’s attracting very, very international attention. And then more broadly we’ve seen whole smattering of I would call second tier core, if you will here in San Francisco and Silicon Valley. So, it has come to pass that there have been more offerings and I think that the core pricing is going to be as strong as we’ve seen it in terms of price per square foot and in terms of cap rate, the debt markets are functioning really well and the debt of equity capital is really strong. So as John said, it’s very, very tough out there. I don’t think that means that we’re blanked out of the market. There have always been seams that we can mine, whether it’s a relationship, whether it’s a broken process, whether it’s a real high value add, whether it’s sharp shot or whatever it might be or kind of a yearend of type of situation. So we may still find them, but it is extremely, extremely competitive. It hasn’t relented it all and I would say it has firmed up since the last call and continually over time.

John Kilroy

Management

Yes, before David gets in there, this is John. There are some pretty recent examples. There is the building that was formally the Twitter headquarters, that it’s pretty well located. It’s not too far from our 360 Third. It’s not as on as prominent as street and so forth. That building address is what?

Jeff Hawken

Management

795 Folsom.

John Kilroy

Management

795 Folsom. That building went for $600 per square foot and it is kind of in the condition that, a little bit better on the inside and it’s pretty well leased, 80% or so but it’s a building. It’s kind of in a condition that 360 Third was when we first bought it with not as good bones and that’s pretty strong pricing. That deal requires that sort of everything go right and that credit of tenant stays solid and you’re able to make deals in the sort of the mid 60s is, Eli, in order to just scrabble of sort of a 6% return or so in due course. So there are buildings like that, that are traded very dearly for what they are and then as Eli pointed out, there’s some of the real uber core stuff that every sovereign and most major insurance companies or whatever would love to own, that are going to trade at cap rates that’s are probably in the fours and at high prices per square foot and we’ve stated it all. And what we’ve really seen a lot is money that’s floated also to the suburban markets. We’ve taken advantage of that, San Diego, just because they’re trying to find better yields.

David Simon

Analyst

I was just going to add a couple more John. On the Westside, you know Lantana was a big sale, high $600s a foot. 201 [ph] has commented on Century City, older building, traded to Commonwealth north of $600 a foot. As Eli said, Century Park, the towers are going to be uber, uber core and with really thin yields and the price per foots are going to potentially record setting in there. So the quality stuff and the core stuff is really trading extraordinarily rich pricing right now.

John Guinee - Stifel

Analyst

And where are these numbers relative to replacement cost, John?

John Kilroy

Management

Well it depends. Until some of the stuff transacts, I think that stuff that the pricing we've heard rumors about with regard to what this big asset that’s several million square feet in Century City goes for, if it goes for what it's rumored to be, that'll be above replacement cost, a fair bit. In San Francisco I don't know what 201 [ph] exactly is going to go for and so replacement cost I think has gone up substantially in most of these markets simply because with the development, with construction going on, there's a lot of hospitals, a lot of apartments. There are some office buildings et cetera, et cetera. Commodity pricing has increased, steel's gone up, concrete's gone up et cetera, et cetera. Labor's certainly not coming down. So where things are at a replacement cost, I can't. Until we see some of these things transact I don't know. I can say that some of the buildings that have transacted, that have been older buildings, that have good floor plates and so forth have transacted way above the replacement cost, whether, some of these things you couldn't get approved today. Like our 363rd building, which we're now 96% committed, you never could get that building approved in that area of the city, because they want tall little skinny buildings with tiny little floor plates. So kind of wandering around in my answer but we're seeing some transactions that are certainly going above replacement cost. I think replacement cost we're going to see go up substantially over the next few years guys.

John Guinee - Stifel

Analyst

And just David Simon, just to confirm the commonwealth deal was with the private guys, not the public REIT I think, right?

David Simon

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Dustin Cho from Deutsche Bank, please proceed.

Dustin Cho - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Just wanted to go back to the 1Q expiries that you know about that one of them sounds like you've already addressed and one there's activity on, but just curious on how much downtime, if any that you expect on those?

John Kilroy

Management

The one that we’ve released, the lease expires end of February and the commencement date is I believe it's August of next year. So that's the timing for that one. The other one again we have activity but we haven't landed a deal yet.

Dustin Cho - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Got you, okay. And just going back to your comment John about the material cost and replacement cost going up and labor cost going up, I'm just curious, how much inflation you’ve seen on development cost or construction cost overall, maybe on a year-over-year basis here recently.

John Kilroy

Management

I can answer that as best of my ability but I don't have Justin Spark, some of our guys here that deal with that every day in every market could give you the [indiscernible]. So with that proviso, we've seen not everything go up and not in every market. Southern California is still holding fairly good compared to San Francisco which has definitely escalated. Seattle's held for the past eight months pretty steady but it's, let us talk about that in our next call, or call us, call Tyler and we’ll get you better data there, I just don’t want to speculate, I don't just have it in my head and I don't want to put my foot in my mouth. I'm Irish, so I've done that enough.

Dustin Cho - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay, just moving back to the markets, you gave a tremendous amount of color on supply demand in each of your markets. Just curious if you could just maybe boil that down a little bit and just, as we think about or as you think about market rents for next year, how do you see those trending in LA, San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego?

John Kilroy

Management

Well rents have gone up. If we take San Diego, we've seen some pretty significant increases in rents over the past couple of years and Sorrento Mesa and Del Mar to the point where we’re feeling pretty comfortable, that with the visible demand we see, we’re going to be able to get very good rents. That's not even throughout San Diego by any stretch of the imagination. It still is a -- I kind of break it down this way, okay? Let me just step back. We throw our dispositions over the course of the last two years, with what we have in the pipeline to sell now and the $500 million we sold last year. We basically transformed the company increasingly towards CBD, more urban type space or what I'll call sort of super suburban. And by super suburban I'm talking about spaces where there's clusters where people want to be, that has very similar characteristics to the urban areas and the technology areas where people want to be, transportation et cetera, et cetera and the rents that you see in those markets are escalating at far greater rates than they are in call it typical suburbia and it's because those are the places where people find that they can attract and retain the most important ingredient they have in their industries, which is their people and people cost represents roughly 80% of most people’s cost structure in these technological companies and real estate represents sort of 5%. So, if you can pay little bit more for your real estate, but attract better people and retain them, it’s tremendous leverage. So, those are where you’re going to see the highest increases in rent and those are going to be markets that we’re very focused in, like Lake Union, like…

Operator

Operator

And your final question comes from George Auerbach from ISI Group. Please proceed.

George Auerbach - ISI Group

Analyst

John, I know you’re reluctant to talk about transactions before they close but just on the developments, it sounds like you have a lot of activity. What do you think the odds are that you have significant prerelease at one or more of the three new starts by this time, by your next conference call next year?

John Kilroy

Management

You mean by the fourth quarter conference call.

George Auerbach - ISI Group

Analyst

Yes.

John Kilroy

Management

I think we should have something based on what we’re doing now, but I don’t want to jinx it George. Unfortunately I don’t get to the make the decision when the other people sign but one thing I’ve learned with, particularly the entertainment companies they are slower than molasses because they have so many different constituents that they have to bring together. In the case of some other people we’re dealing what they are, these are major consolidations. So you’re talking about multiple groups. Then all the kittens have to be heard, maybe I’m mixing metaphors but everybody has got to be sort of buy into these things and that’s the process. With some of the tech companies that we’re dealing with and some of the other legal firms et cetera up in the Bay area, I can tell you that most of these people have occupancy requirements that suggest they need to make a decision very soon. So, that’s why I think we’ll be able to feel down something. On the other end I don’t want to get pinned down. One thing that I do like, and David Simon pointed this out to me regularly, as did some of our other people, is that while we’ve been negotiating with some of these folks, the markets have continued to improve with regard to where rents are and where availabilities are. So I like that trend but ultimately as I always tell our people, I’m into running around between the 20s. I’m into scoring and scoring is, ultimately you got to put to tenant and you got to get into the end zone with the tenant and I think we’re doing a very good job, making substantial progress on almost all fronts. So, that’s a long way of saying; I hope so.

George Auerbach - ISI Group

Analyst

That’s good color. And lastly Tyler, just in funding for the development spend, you had $200 million of cash plus the sale proceeds coming hopefully in December. Given the $500 million or so of development spend you laid out, is it fair to say that the capital raising is excluding new starts where acquisitions, pretty much behind you?

Tyler Rose

Management

Based on the numbers you just laid out, we have a 100 million of cash, not 200 million of cash but we have a fair amount of capital right now. So, a near term financing, whether it’s debt or equity doesn’t seem necessary, although interest rates are pretty attractive right now. They declined 50 basis points over the last months or so and so would we do a bond offering right now? Probably not. But we need to think you for the future as well and you don’t know on the acquisition front if we find something. So I can’t say that we’re not going to do more financing. There was for just what you laid out. If there were no new acquisitions, no other development starts, yes, we have capital.

Operator

Operator

And there are no remaining questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back over to Mr. Tyler Rose for any closing remarks?

Tyler Rose

Management

Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in KRC.