David John Kennerley
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Kroger delivered another strong set of results this quarter in an environment that remains dynamic. We executed well, delivering solid e-commerce growth, maintaining cost discipline and achieving our profitability goals. From a financial perspective, this was a year of both strong performance and deliberate investment in the future. We invested in price while improving our FIFO gross margin rate, excluding fuel and adjustment items. We accelerated e-commerce profitability, and we improved our cost structure to redeploy those savings into areas that drive growth. These actions strengthen our financial foundation and support sustainable performance going forward. The momentum in our business gives us confidence in our outlook for next year. Today, I'll start by covering our Q4 results in more detail and highlight some key full year metrics and then share our guidance for 2026 and the key drivers behind it. We achieved identical sales without fuel growth of 2.4%, a strong result that includes a nearly 40 basis point headwind from the Inflation Reduction Act. On a 2-year stack basis, identical sales without fuel grew by 4.8%. Growth was primarily driven by improving trends in units. As Ron mentioned earlier, our share trends improved in 2025 with fourth quarter trends again improving and culminating in positive share gains in our final period of the year. Sales growth was led by e-commerce and pharmacy, along with strong performance from Fresh. As Ron mentioned, what's encouraging is the underlying composition of that growth. We saw continued improvement in food volumes with grocery sales representing a larger portion of our overall sales mix. Pharmacy had another strong quarter led by growth in both core scripts and GLP-1s. That said, Pharmacy contributed nearly 50 basis points less than in the third quarter reflecting the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act and an accelerating shift from brand to generic beginning in January. Food inflation moderated further in the quarter, down approximately 90 basis points compared to Q3, with egg deflation a significant headwind, partially offset by beef inflation. Our FIFO gross margin rate, excluding rent, depreciation and amortization and fuel was flat in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. This result was primarily attributable to sourcing improvements, lower supply chain costs and lower shrink offset by price investments and the mix effect from growth in pharmacy sales, which has lower margins. When we provided our second half outlook, we updated our FIFO gross margin rate expectations, excluding fuel and KSP, to be relatively flat for the full year. We delivered better than that, and as our rate improved in the second half of the year, primarily driven by our performance in the fourth quarter with favorable mix and better shrink results. For the full year, excluding the effect of KSP, fuel and adjustment items, we improved our rate by 14 basis points, while investing more in price, reflecting the balance we are focused on achieving between delivering value and maintaining margin discipline. The operating, general and administrative rate, excluding fuel and adjustment items, increased 21 basis points in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. The increase in rate was primarily attributable to cycling real estate gains from a year ago and labor investments to improve customer experience, partially offset by lower incentive plan costs and improved productivity. We continue to make progress on improving our cost structure and importantly, we're generating more durable cost savings, which we are reinvesting into stores and the customer experience to deliver better service and more value to customers. With that said, we believe we are still in the early stages of what we can achieve. Sourcing and procurement remains a significant opportunity together with modernizing our ways of working, we see substantial runway for cost savings ahead. Our LIFO charge for the quarter was $11 million compared to a LIFO charge of $30 million last year. On a full year basis, our LIFO charge was $157 million in 2025 compared to $95 million last year, resulting in a $0.07 headwind to EPS. We expect our LIFO charge in 2026 to be similar to 2025. Our adjusted FIFO operating profit in the quarter was $1.2 billion. Q4 adjusted EPS was $1.28, reflecting 12% growth compared to last year. For the full year, adjusted EPS was $4.85 and grew by 9%, coming in at the top end of our long-term growth expectations. Fuel results were better than expected this quarter, driven by strong fuel margin performance even as gallon volumes declined. Q4 fuel profitability came in ahead of last year. Fuel continues to be an important part of our strategy, building loyalty through our fuel rewards program and providing another source of value for our customers. I'd now like to turn to capital allocation and financial strategy. We delivered strong adjusted free cash flow of $3.9 billion this quarter (sic) [ for full year ] , exceeding our expectations. This was driven by the strength of our operating performance, good progress on a range of working capital initiatives and favorable year-end timing. Our balance sheet remains healthy with our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio still below our long-term target range. This gives us the financial flexibility to pursue growth investments and other opportunities to enhance shareholder value. Over time, we expect to move back towards our target leverage ratio. During the year, we completed our $7.5 billion share repurchase authorization. This included a $5 billion accelerated share repurchase program, followed by open market repurchases, which completed our remaining authorization in Q4. In December, our Board approved an additional $2 billion share repurchase authorization, and we expect to complete these repurchases by the end of fiscal 2026. Our capital allocation framework remains consistent. We are focused on investing in opportunities where we can generate the highest long-term returns and improving ROIC remains a core priority. We are encouraged by the progress we're making on our major store projects and our recent remodels are delivering higher-than-expected returns. These investments will be important to driving ROIC improvement over time. I'd now like to share our guidance for 2026 and walk through the key factors shaping our outlook. We expect identical sales without fuel growth in a range of 1% to 2%. It is important to note that the Inflation Reduction Act will create an approximately 130 basis point headwind to identical sales without fuel this year, reflecting the impact of lower reimbursement rates on key medications while having no impact on gross profit dollars. Excluding the IRA impact, we would expect identical sales without fuel growth in a range of 2.3% to 3.3%. In terms of quarterly cadence, we expect Q1 identical sales without fuel to come in near the low end of our full year range, driven primarily by continued egg deflation. As this headwind eases, we expect sales trends to improve. A few other dynamics to keep in mind as we think about the year. We expect overall inflation to be lower than it was in 2025. Within Pharmacy, we expect sales growth to moderate to low to mid-single digits, reflecting the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on reimbursement rates and the ongoing shift in brand to generic mix, which is currently greater than we've seen in the past, partially offset by continued GLP-1 adoption and script growth. We'll also continue to regain ESI households, though progress remains gradual, and we do not expect to fully recover the business we previously lost. We expect e-commerce to accelerate from 2025 growth rates with continued strength in delivery and increased store-based fulfillment through our third-party delivery providers. We're also enhancing our loyalty program in 2026. This includes updates to our rewards program and a revamped Kroger credit card, both designed to deepen customer engagement and drive increased shopping frequency across our in-store and e-commerce channels. Total sales without fuel should be slightly lower than identical sales without fuel, reflecting an approximately $350 million headwind from the closure of our Florida fulfillment center and $300 million headwind from the sale of Vitacost partially offset by new store openings. We expect adjusted FIFO operating profit in a range of $5 billion to $5.2 billion. We will continue to drive greater value for our customers by investing in price, both in everyday value and through promotions, and we expect these investments to increase compared to 2025. We are also investing in the customer experience, particularly in service and labor hours, ensuring our stores are well staffed. Even with these increased investments, we expect our FIFO gross margin rate, excluding fuel and adjustment items, to improve in 2026. These investments will be funded through increased productivity and cost savings. We expect to exceed our 2025 cost savings with increased contributions from 2 areas, in particular, e-commerce and procurement. In e-commerce, we will lower our cost to serve by fulfilling more orders out of stores, closer to our customers and by leveraging our third-party delivery providers. In procurement, we are going after both cost of goods sold and goods not for resale with a level of intensity that reflects the scale of the opportunity. In Fresh imports, national brands and Our Brands, we are renegotiating supplier agreements, going direct where we have historically used intermediaries and ensuring that every dollar of Kroger's purchasing power is working for us and our customers. The savings we generate flow directly into lower prices for our customers. We have dedicated teams focused on these areas, and we are confident in our ability to deliver. Our Media business delivered solid results in 2025, and we expect to build on that momentum. Our merchandising and Media teams are working more collaboratively, which is improving the quality of our activations and outcomes for brands. In 2025, our alternative profit businesses, which include Media, Kroger Personal Finance and Insights, delivered $1.5 billion in operating profit, and we expect Media to deliver double-digit growth in 2026. To support our modernization efforts, we are launching the Kroger Global Capability Center. This initiative is designed to streamline decision-making, improve productivity and increase the speed at which we execute on behalf of our customers. It complements the work already underway across the organization to modernize how we operate. Work has started and is progressing with speed. We expect modest benefits in 2026 with more significant benefits expected in 2027 and 2028. Turning to capital allocation. We will continue taking a disciplined approach focused on long-term shareholder value. We expect capital expenditures of $3.8 billion to $4 billion with increased investments in new store growth. These new locations are strategic investments in our future. They follow a natural maturation curve. It takes time to build customer awareness, establish traffic patterns and reach profitability. In early months, we absorbed start-up costs and elevated labor expenses as we staff up and invest in training. This is expected, and it reflects the same disciplined approach we have executed successfully for many years. These stores will drive volume growth, expand our customer base and strengthen our presence in key markets. We are confident they will deliver meaningful long-term returns. As part of our new store strategy, we're also testing different formats and bringing fresh thinking to the in-store experience. That means evaluating new concepts, making sure every element of the store is relevant, productive and aligned with how customers want to shop today. Beyond new stores, our capital investments will support technology and AI, where we are investing aggressively. These investments serve 2 purposes: improving the customer experience and driving productivity throughout the company. This year, we're introducing Agentic AI shopping for our customers, which will help them discover items, build baskets, plan meals and stay within budgets, all in a personalized way. We're also investing in supply chain modernization with more automation and expanded capacity. And we'll also continue investing in our remodels to ensure our stores deliver a consistently strong experience. We expect adjusted free cash flow of $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion and adjusted net earnings per diluted share of $5.10 to $5.30. I will now turn the call over to Greg.