Leroy Ball
Analyst · Seaport Global. Please go ahead
Thanks Mike. So let's review our business segments and how 2021 looks to be taking shape, starting with our Performance Chemicals group. On slide 29, the overall outlook for Performance Chemicals has improved from the more cautious approach we were taking, as we entered the year. And we've seen strong year-over-year demand in North America through April, which is not a surprise as prior year comps did not reflect the, stay-at-home pandemic effect of home improvement projects. We did see a mid-quarter minor lull in volumes relative to what we had seen in previous eight months, which we attributed to record lumber prices that we believe were holding treaters back to a certain degree as they were looking to avoid, getting caught possibly with high-priced inventory if the market took a sudden sharp downturn. Consumer demand for the product to satisfy the backlog of projects has the industry pushing through the inventory hesitancy and volumes have reverted back to what we had been seeing. Overseas, the international picture looks to exceed 2020 results, due to prior year being severely impacted by the pandemic. As such, we're cautiously optimistic about PC's ability to generate EBITDA in 2021 that will actually meet or potentially even surpass the prior year, after initially thinking that we could see some drop off from prior year demand as the year went on. I'm still a little concerned about where things go in the back third of the year, from a demand standpoint, but feel comfortable enough raising our guidance in this business, due to the lead we have built in Q1, a better comfort level on Q2 and the rebound in our international segments. Koppers has continued its rise to record highs. And as a result the industry will need to build that cost increase into materials, if this trend continues into 2022. Now across the North American market, residential and commercial treating outlook remains strong with ongoing pent-up home improvement demand driving lumber prices to record levels. Big-box retailers have mostly built-up their inventory during first quarter and independent dealers have now decided to jump into the market despite the higher lumber prices to get ready for the anticipated spring rush. Now our projections of 2021 being a big year for preservative conversions also remain in place, as our CCA DuraClimb utility poles are expected to increase market share over the next year or so as a result of the phase-out of Penta. Both the U.S. EPA and Health Canada are proposing canceling Penta registrations in their respective countries, which would be the final nail in the coffin for the product who only manufactured previously, announced that they were discontinuing production of the product as of the end of this year. We continue to consider the proper entry point into copper naphthenate or other oil-borne systems for wood species that cannot take DuraClimb. But overall, we feel satisfied in the interest of our waterborne product is a great substitute for the Southern Yellow Pine wood species region. And we're pleased to note, that plans for the capacity expansion at our facility located in Hubbell Michigan remain on target for the third quarter, which should provide some cost relief in the back half of the year should volumes drop below prior year levels. Also, we've de-risked our supply chain by locking in long-term domestic supplies for intermediates over the second half of the year, which will also cut down on lead times. Continuing on, regarding North America on slide 30, we show that friendly customer consolidations that are happening, currently could mean new volume growth by the fourth quarter and into 2022 as our capacity is expanded. Now the data that we track to determine the health of our PC business seems to be pointing in a good direction. According to the National Association of Realtors existing home sales rose 12.3% year-over-year in March 2021, but fell 3.7% from prior month because of nearly historic lows in housing inventory. The sales prices of median existing homes soared to record levels, and would have been higher had more, inventory been available. The NAR forecast that buyer confidence is on the rise. The leading indicator of remodeling activity says, home repair and improvement expenditures are expected to increase 4.8% and reach $370 billion by the first quarter of next year, as homeowners take on larger discretionary renovations deferred during the pandemic. These indicators strong, we suggest that people are feeling more positive about the economy as validated by the Consumer Confidence Index, which saw another strong increase for the second straight month. The index in April came in at 121.7, up from 109 in March, which marked a significant rise from the 90.4 index in February. Internationally, our PC activity in South America remains on a positive path and looks to be a growing market. After several failed attempts to acquire manufacturing capacity in Brazil we're now looking hard at green fielding a site, which would put us in a much stronger market position in a growing region where we already hold significant market share through an important tolling model. Our Australasian business had a strong first quarter and looks to reap the benefits of an anticipated post-pandemic housing boom. In Europe, as certain of our product registrations are set to expire, we pulled demand forward to satisfy longer-term customer needs. And therefore we will be challenged in this region as the year progresses. Now given that this is a small piece of our global PC portfolio, we don't anticipate any issue in offsetting the expected weakness in the remainder of 2021. We have been sorting through the long-term alternatives for this business for a while now. And we'll be moving forward soon, with a plan to bolster our aging product portfolio, through the introduction of new products with the acquisition of existing technology that has a longer regulatory timeline. Slide 31 brings us to an overview of our Utility and Industrial Products business. Demand in the U.S. and Australia appears to remain strong in 2021. And we may see a bit of sales decline as a result of our recent exit from our operating agreement with TEC in Texas, but we expect that that will translate into improvement in EBITDA, as production moves from TEC's Jasper Texas location to our Summerville Texas treating facility. The TEC arrangement that we inherited with the acquisition of the UIP business was unprofitable and deemed unfixable without some meaningful contractual changes which we just could not seem to reach agreement on with TEC. As a result, we'll now be going it alone in Texas, which is probably best in the long run anyway. Texas is a creosote pole market and is a burgeoning market, for pole disposal, all elements that speak to the strength of our integrated business model. Now even as we put the pandemic behind us, it will remain an imperative for utilities to limit or avoid service interruptions. And it's likely that some portion of the workforce will continue to work remotely and as a result, the workforce is expected to be more dispersed geographically, compared with the pre-pandemic environment. An emerging trend shows that more Americans are moving South and West. And to the extent that migration and home construction trends are occurring in the Southern U.S. our business could benefit due to having strong market share in the region. At the same time, energy and telecommunications needs are expected to continue to increase, which should result in a need for upgrades and expansions of the transmission network. Mentioned earlier, the production of Penta Preservative will cease at the end of 2021 and the registration for use of Penta, is on the road to being canceled in the U.S. and Canada. Now we're converting our first plant from Penta to CCA, a Koppers-produced preservative while evaluating copper naphthenate and DCOI as additional oil-borne alternatives. We expect our CCA DuraClimb product to lead the way the Eastern U.S. market for a combination of cost and performance reasons. Part of our capital program this year is also allocated to adding drying capacity at two treating sites, further reducing cost and supply risk. First kiln is expected to come online in Q2 with the second in Q3. In Australia an aging network and the need to rebuild infrastructure following last year's wildfires appear to create a solid demand base for 2021. Pine poles have gained greater acceptance due to the lack of hardwoods, so we're also adding drying capacity in Australia to facilitate increased pine pole production. Moving on to the RUPS business on Slide 32, demand for all product lines looks to be strong for this year and next as margins are expected to improve with continued cost control. Integrating tie and pole treatment in Summerville, along with processing of end-of-life ties, illustrates the super-plant model referenced in the past as a key goal for Koppers in the coming years and a core tenet of our network optimization strategy. The biggest risk we face currently to 2021 results for our crosstie business is the tightened hardwood supply. Now this has been an every couple-of-year issue within the industry where the supply of hardwoods for untreated crossties tightens either due to weather issues competing demands for hardwood or both. Now, we'll work through it as we have in the past but if our untreated numbers don't start increasing soon, we could see an impact on treating and shipments by the end of the year. Now despite the challenges the industry is currently dealing with on the supply side, we do remain focused in the crosstie market on increasing our market share and we continue to drive efforts to renew key Class I contracts by the end of 2021. Now the expansion of our North Little Rock facility to be completed by the end of this year further puts us in position for EBITDA improvement in 2022, as it will lower our cost footprint and enable us to compete for a greater share of the market. Larger market indicators paint an overall encouraging picture for the RUPS business. The Railway Tie Association forecasts 2.7% growth in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022 for crossties, primarily driven by the commercial market while Class I volumes are seen holding at similar year-over-year levels. Current raw material availability is slightly constricted according to the RTA but their view for the next six to 12 months is ideal, which is probably a little more optimistic than our view at this moment and as mentioned earlier remains our biggest near-term risk. A rebounding national economy and government stimulus payments are expected to spur increased consumer spending. RTA reports that retailer's inventory-to-sales ratios are at their lowest levels in a decade, meaning freight activity should benefit from suppliers' needs to replenish inventory. Rail traffic continues to recover from 2020 levels as of March 31 year-to-date, according to the American Association of Railroads. Total US carload traffic decreased 2.6% year-over-year, while intermodal units increased 3.2%. Combined, year-over-year US traffic was up by 5.6%. The AAR adds that railroad volumes correlate strongly with manufacturing output, so recent signs of strength point to positive indicators for the railroad industry. Slide 33 shows the impact of maintenance-of-way projects on the RUPS segment. And even though COVID-19 negatively affected this business tremendously, maintenance-of-way still generated EBITDA and margin improvement in 2020. And the backlog of railroad structures projects this year is 50% higher than a year ago, pointing to increases in profitability from a full pipeline of incoming work. In 2021, we don't anticipate as much disruption from COVID-19, as compared with the prior year, which should improve project efficiency. We're actively working to expand the crosstie recovery business including the addition of Class I accounts. We also see more growth potential by leveraging the synergy between landscape crossties and the needs of our PC customers. A combination of new value-added services, lowering costs and increasing efficiency for rail customers point to a growing revenue model. And the maintenance-of-way business is emerging as a bigger proportion of our RUPS business, having transformed from one of our most negatively impacted businesses during the pandemic into now representing roughly half of all the EBITDA increase for RUPS in 2021. On Slide 34, we see that the outlook for CMC has become somewhat brighter, thanks to anticipated growth in manufacturing in the steel aluminum and carb black industries. According to IHS Market Automotive Group, light vehicle production is projected to grow about 14% in 2021 globally with US production expected to increase 24%. As such, we expect growth in overall EBITDA and margins as demand improves and cost management continues. Performance of CMC through the pandemic has proven that the model we have built, can consistently deliver EBITDA in the low- to mid-teens, regardless of the economic cycles. In North America, we see more tar production in 2021, regaining normal levels in the second half of the year and we expect transportation cost savings as imports from Europe are reduced or eliminated. Carbon pitch and creosote demand look to be solid, while higher average oil prices should maintain higher profitability in our phthalic anhydride business. Our CMC footprint worldwide has been streamlined to the degree that we can now support reinvestment in our Stickney Illinois facility and these improvements underway since last year are designed to provide long-term reliability by minimizing the risk of operational disruptions like what recently occurred. Higher profitability is anticipated through increased efficiency, upgraded technology, lower costs, improved environmental performance and most importantly, in enhanced safety record. Slide 35 details CMC operations in Europe and Australia. Europe remains the region with the most commercial challenges as the slowdown in aluminum capacity has affected our competitors' customer base disproportionately and increased pricing pressure for the remaining base of that business. Now, while higher oil prices represent a net positive for our overall CMC business, the one area where it presents a challenge in Europe, where it makes coal tar more competitive raw material for the carbon black feedstock market, thereby pushing down supply and putting pressure on pricing. This is where our commercial and supply chain group has proven to excel over the years in managing these ever-changing dynamics and I'm confident they'll be successful managing at this time as well. The Australian market, we see that higher China benchmark pricing will support a healthier carbon pitch pricing environment. And should this pricing remain in place, we anticipate that Australia will generate the largest year-over-year improvement of the three CMC regions. Pulling everything together on Slide 37, our sales forecast for 2021 remains in the range of $1.7 to $1.8 billion, compared with $1.637 billion in the prior year. Our RUPS and CMC businesses are expected to generate a similar range of increase with PC estimated to be somewhere close to prior-year sales numbers. On Slide 38, we're increasing our EBITDA projections for 2021 to a range of $220 million to $230 million, compared with $211 million in the prior year. The biggest driver in our increased guidance is our increased confidence that PC will see elevated levels of demand at least through the third quarter. The EBITDA estimate translates to an increase in our adjusted EPS guidance, which is seen on Slide 39 and is now $4.35 to $4.60 per share compared to the prior guidance of $4.00 to $4.25 per share and prior-year adjusted EPS of $4.12. Now finally, on Slide 40, our capital expenditures were $24.2 million in the first quarter or $19.5 million net of $4.7 million in cash proceeds from asset sales. The cash proceeds came from the February sale of our Follansbee facility and the final release from escrow of dollars held from our 2018 sale of Clairton. The Follansbee sale is an important milestone for Koppers, as it will save us considerable ongoing costs and cash flow, and allow us to refocus efforts in cash towards the growth and improvement opportunities in our other businesses. We remain on track to spend a net amount of $80 million to $90 million on capital expenditures this year, with half of that dedicated to growth and productivity projects that are expected to generate $8 million to $12 million of annualized benefits. In summary, I have greater confidence in our ability to deliver significantly better financial performance this year, now that we're through the first four months of 2021 and have better visibility on the second and third quarters. Beyond 2021 I remain excited about the many opportunities that we have to further build upon our integrated business model focused on wooden infrastructure and look forward to sharing the details of how we believe we can take Koppers to over $300 million of EBITDA generation by the end of 2025 at our upcoming September 13 Investor Day. With that, I would like to open it up to any questions.