Leroy Ball
Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you Mike. Regarding the outlook for each of our businesses, let's start with our railroad utility products and services segment. So in our legacy RUPS business, while 2019 started with a decrease in rail traffic in the first quarter, the industry is forecasting higher crosstie replacements compared with prior year and we are seeing demand levels tick up. The Association of American Railroads or AAR reported that total U.S. carload traffic for the first three months of 2019 was down 3.1%, from the same period last year with intermodal units, defined as container and trailers, down to a lesser degree at 0.6%. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 13 weeks of 2019 was approximately 6.7 million carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.8% compared to last year. The decline in rail traffic was likely due to a combination of extremely cold weather at the beginning of the year, then flooding in the Midwest region of the U.S. during the month of March. Also, as has been the case for the past several years, the number of heavy haul loads have continued to decline from historical levels, which means lighter weight loads are being transported yielding less wear on tracks and ties. Same time, Class I railroads are still focusing on the general concept of precision railroading, which translates to finding ways to reduce spending and improve asset utilization, operating ratios and cash flows. As a result, crosstie replacement activities remain relatively flat having reverted to below or near historic lows over recent years. According to the Railway Tie Association or RTA, the current industry forecast calls for replacements of a range of a little less than 22 million to nearly 23 million crossties in 2019, contingent on having an adequate supply of lumber. In 2018, tie replacements were estimated be approximately 22.7 million crossties, however actual replacements were 21.2 million due a number of factors, including lack of available dry inventory for treatment. Now, as a whole, the industry has been challenged with very low inventory of untreated crossties. According to RTA surveys of in the field wood tie buyers to procure untreated crossties from sawmills, log availability and logs on hand at mill-yards have been less than ideal due to weather issues. While we are seeing crosstie demand improve, the challenge ahs been building inventory levels in order to have dry crossties available for treatment. In our utility industrial products business, it is estimated that there are roughly 160 million utility poles across the U.S. and most were installed in the 1950s according to the North American Wood Pole Council. In general, the average age of these poles is around 70 years whereas the expected lifespan of a pole is actually much less than that at approximately 40 years. Now due to pole age and infrastructure changes, mostly road widening, the replacement rate of these installed poles has grown and currently equates to an industry demand of about two to three million poles replaced annually. Therefore, we continue to anticipate that 2019 will be a solid year from a demand standpoint for replacement of utility poles. In addition, our recycling and disposal program for out of service crossties and poles can solve a problem that's been troublesome for each industry. Our approach of recycling and reusing the ties and poles, including as a fuel source can improve the environmental footprint of these end-of-life ties and poles as well provide customers with an economically viable way to responsibly dispose of them. As an update on the projected benefits related to our integration synergies and strategic initiatives, we continue to make great strides on many different fronts. There are no less than nine different important initiative that are in progress that have the potential for multimillion-dollar impacts to our top and bottom line. For competitive reasons, we cannot give details on most of them at this point, but they will become readily apparent as we realize success in the different areas. One initiative that we don't need to be quite as secretive about is our plans to either add volumes to our 18 treating plants that are operating at less than full utilization or work on consolidating our footprint. Much work has been done in that regard and we will share more specifics as we are able to as the year goes on. Now the overall results of all these initiatives and actions are expected to drive $25 million to $40 million of annualized benefits to be realized over the next five years. We are currently on track to realize $10 million of those savings in 2019. For the RUPS business, we continue to anticipate an improved demand environment in 2019, which should lead to increased production volumes and higher utilization rates so long as we get an adequate supply of untreated crossties. Also, the realization of cost and commercial synergies generated through the various integration and strategic initiatives should result in our first year-over-year improvement in this segment since 2015. As reflected on slide eight, we are slightly increasing adjusted EBITDA guidance for our RUPS segment of $62 million to $66 million, primarily due to the strength of our first quarter in what was a difficult supply environment. That would equate to an adjusted EBITDA margin of nearly 9% and an increase of $21 million to $25 million compared with prior year. In our performance chemicals business, the economic trends are beginning to show some softness. According to the National Association of Realtors or NAR, existing home sales retreated in March following a surge of sales in February. Total existing home sales in March fell 4.9% from February and were down 5.4% from a year ago. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw a drop off in sales with the Midwest enduring the largest decline. In addition, any tax policy changes will likely add further complications to the housing sector as the expensive home market will be negatively affected by limitations on tax deductions or mortgage interest payments and property taxes. As forecasted by the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity or LIRA at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, year-over-year growth in homeowner remodeling expenditures is expected to slow from approximately 7% to 2.6% by the first quarter of 2020. However, more favorable mortgage rates could still give a boost to home sales and refinancing in the spring to summer timeframe and could help to sustain remodeling activity. Home improvement and repair spending has been in above trend growth for several years and now remodeling growth is expected to fall below the market's historical average of 5% for the first time since 2013. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index partially rebounded in April to 129.2, compared with 124.2 in March, but still remains below the levels seen last fall. Even so The Conference Board indicates that consumers expect the economy to continue growing at solid pace into the summer months and these relatively strong confidence levels should continue to support consumer spending at least in the near-term. In terms of the cost side, copper and related raw material costs are expected to increase for this year as our average hedge prices for 2019 are higher than prior year. Our efforts to increase pricing in certain areas to partially offset the impact of higher copper costs will continue. Also, we are making progress related to our new capacity expansions as we are already processing more of our feedstock in-house and improving operational efficiencies even further. As mentioned last quarter, our expectations for PC are contingent on a relatively decent demand environment in 2019. The assumptions include approximately 3% to 5% growth achieved through market share wins and 3% to 5% of organic growth to achieve overall 5.8% volume growth and we believe that we are on track at this point, primarily due to strong market share gains although organic growth has begun the year at a lower than hoped for pace. On page nine of our slide presentation, we are estimating adjusted EBITDA for PC of approximately $70 million to $75 million. That would equate to an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 15% to 16% and an increase of $8 million to $13 million compared with prior year. Moving now to our CMC business. We are seeing exactly what we had expected so far in 2019 as raw material prices have risen across the board while pressures has been building on end market pricing in certain regions as competitors attempt to gain market share. Now that said, it is important to remember that restructuring actions taken in CMC during the past several years have greatly streamlined the cost structure which allow us to be much more competitive. Additionally, cost savings related to our new naphthalene unit at Stickney will be reflected in our 2019 results to help alleviate some of the other headwinds we are facing and we are on track to realize the estimated $10 million of savings this year. Therefore, we expect CMC results in 2019 to be at the higher end of the range of normalized profitability for this segment. Regarding our China subsidiary, KJCC, we are continuing to supply our customer under a temporary special purchase order that runs through June 30, 2019. For certain timeframe during the June quarter, we are expecting to have a regularly scheduled maintenance shutdown, which will make our second quarter results in China less than our first but still profitable. We continue to work towards a resolution and we will share any new developments with you as soon as we are able. Until that time, we cannot comment further or speculate on any outcomes due to the legal guidelines and requirements associated with this matter. In 2019, assumptions for CMC include the higher cost of raw materials and a significant reduction in contribution from our Chinese joint venture, partially offset by cost savings primarily from our new naphthalene facility. As shown on slide 10, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA CMC of approximately $80 million to $84 million. That equates to an adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 12% to 13% and a decrease of $35 million to $39 million compared with prior year. Slide 11 shows the various drivers in our guidance for consolidated sales in 2019, which we still anticipate to be between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion. The forecast assumes improved crosstie production, a full year of contribution from acquisitions and more normalized organic growth patterns in our PC business. Turning to slide 12. Our guidance for two 2019 consolidated EBITDA, on an adjusted basis, is slightly higher on the bottom end of the range, which is now $212 million while the top end of the range remains at $225 million. We continue to expect that 2019 will reflect a meaningful shift in our earnings mix with our primary wood-based businesses generating significant improvements in profitability. Now I would like to open it up for any questions.