Leroy Ball
Analyst · Jefferies
Thank you, Mike. Regarding the outlook for each of our business segment, let's start with our Railroad Utility Products and Services business. Legacy RUPS revenue will likely show a year-over-year while profitability will now likely be flat to slightly up taking into account a worse than expected first quarter driven by softer demanding constraints on untreated tie supply. Now according to the Association of American Railroads or AAR, the level business activity for the Class I railroads were at one time highly dependent on the oil and gas, and coal mining industries. However, there were currently more correlated to trade relations commodity prices and interest rates. At this time, the AAR believes the economic signal seems to be mostly positive overall. Rail traffic to the March quarter was largely positive particularly in terms of traffic segment that are most sensitive to the economic trends. The full March quarter totaled U.S. carload traffic was down 0.3% in the same period last year, meanwhile in remote units were up 5.5% from the prior year quarter. For the year-to-date period through March 31, 2018 combined U.S. traffic for carloads and intermodal units, is 2.6% higher than prior year. Overall, the demand for crossties is expected to be relatively flat to slightly up over prior year. in terms of raw material, we are seeing less available inventory of untreated crossties from the sawmills and lumber prices have increased dramatically due to a wet winter affecting production combined with higher demand from other industries in overseas markets. That production constraint will test our ability to meet demand although it will have a continued positive impact on commercial pricing, which has already moved up nicely over the past four to six months. Our two new acquisitions; M.A. Energy Resources or MAER, and Cox Industries, which has been renamed Utility and Industrial Products or UIP are expected to add $20 million of EBITDA for the remainder of this year, net of any due diligence and integration cost. Chemical sales synergies for our UIP business are built into the PC and CMC segments respectively. Other markets and operation benefits that make up the minimum 5 million in annualized synergies that we expect to result from the UIP acquisition are not expected until 2019. Now volume in the pole market has been healthy in the early part of 2018 and nothing has changed from our view on overall market demand since we closed on the acquisition almost one month ago. We remain excited to be back in this market in such a big way and are anxious to find as many ways possible to bring both our rail and utility customers, the combined benefit accounts from serving both industries in a vertically integrated fashion that we do. Speaking of vertical integration, the MAER business is a perfect natural extension to our crosstie product line, they were with the railroad to dispose of their used crossties as they’re being replaced and convert that waste energy. Not only do they help the railroads economically solve a major headache across tie disposal, but they also provide a great sustainability story to the industry. By the way, our UIP business has been dabbling in full recovery as well, which aligns very nicely with where we are taking our crosstie business and provides even further potential synergy as we become experts in the field or treated with disposal and are able to provide our customer base in both of these critical markets, a cradle-to-grave solution and peace of mind for a key component of their infrastructure. And we’re still too early in the process of this discussing too much detail. So as mentioned on our April call, I’ll defer any further discussion on our work in this area to a future period. So, as reflected on Slide 8, we’re providing 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance for our rough segment of approximately $61 million, which reflects the contribution from the acquisition as well as a modest $2 million increase in the legacy business. In our performance chemicals business, product demand has historically been influenced by existing home sales, which is a leading indicator of consumer spending on remodeling projects. Overall, the market for existing home sales continues to show mixed signals. According to the National Association of Realtors or NAR, existing home sales rose 1.1% in March and grew for the second consecutive month, the lagging inventory levels and affordability constraints kept sales activity below prior year levels despite the increase existing home sales are 1.2% below last year. According to the leading indicator of remodeling activity or lira reported by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University spending on value-added home improvement repairs in the U.S. is expected to grow 7.2% over the 12 months through March of 2019 to total $341 billion. The upward trends in retail sales of building materials and the growing number remodeling permits indicate that homeowners are doing more home improvement projects. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 128.7 up from 127 in March. the assessment from consumers of current conditions has improved somewhat with consumers rating both businesses and labor market conditions quite favorably. overall, confidence levels remain strong and suggest with the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace. From the cost perspective, our raw material costs have been increasing primarily due to copper pricing, which trended higher in 2017 and its continued into 2018. And we continue to hedge a majority of our requirements over one to three-year timeframe in order to provide short-term certainty of our cost structure by lessening the impact that may arise and rapidly fluctuating commodity markets. We’re currently experiencing a more unfavorable impact of higher prices on the smaller unhedged portion of our copper requirements. We’re also dealing with the higher average hedge cost for copper in 2018. So for this year, we anticipate having approximately $13 million of increased costs as a result of higher average raw material cost. In addition with recent changes in accounting requirements, we will no longer be reporting the ineffective myth of our hedges. So in 2017, we actually reported a $6 million hedging and effectiveness benefit, which we know will not recur in 2018 passed [ph] in higher expected SG&A costs in the PC business has approximately $24 million of headwinds to offset this year. now, we believe that $12 million of that will be offset through the release of pent-up demand as traders restock and the weather improves, and cost benefits realized from continued capacity improvement projects. So, as you can see on page 9 of our Slide presentation, we’re expecting to generate 2018 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $76 million for performance chemicals, which is $12 million lower than prior year. Moving now to the outlook regarding our CM&C business. In CM&C, we’re continuing to achieve a significant increase in profitability driven by stronger overall pricing environment, particularly in China. now the shutdown of orders, steel and coking capacity in that region that does not mean environmental in emissions standards, has driven increased demand for products requiring coal tar pitch, including needle coke, which is used for producing electrodes that go into electric or steel production. that happens to be the market the most of our China supply is actually used in. The pricing for coal tar products in the region is seemed to level out in early 2018, but still remains relatively strong compared to prior year and is expected to stay at current levels at least in the near-term. Now, we remain cautious in building too much optimism into our guidance related to activity in China, because of our past experience of rapid market swings and a general disagreement with our key customer over the contractual value of our product. As such we continue to only look one quarter out on the contribution coming from our China joint venture, which means the probability generated from our CM&C business in 2018, still could have further upside in the back half of this year if we’re able to maintain what is the current status quo. In Australia, the market has also been favorable since pricing is correlated to the trend seen in China, but we expect to see a catch up in raw material prices throughout the remainder of the year that will pull results in that region back from its strong early start. aluminum and steel tariffs have received a lot of attention in the U.S. and many people are trying to sort out what it will mean for a number of different businesses and industries, and we are no different in that regard. aluminum prices globally are significantly higher and stronger demand that’s had a positive impact on pricing for the key raw material that we provide. there is discussion about to restart in the U.S. which if they occur should also provide additional upside to our CM&C business. Similar to Australia, pricing in North America and Europe has been outpacing raw material cost increases, but these cost increases will catch up as pricey moderates and will limit our ability to maintain the current pace of profitability in the segment throughout the remainder of the year. therefore, as shown on Slide 10, our anticipated 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance for CM&C is approximately $103 million, which represents a $28 million improvement over prior year. Now on Slide 11, you can see the various drivers in our sales guidance for 2018. We are projecting that CM&C will benefit from both higher pricing and higher volumes with China providing most of the benefit and PC demand despite having a slow start this year, will remain a favorable levels for our rough legacy business we’ll likely finish the year slightly up with a – from the sales level, we likely finished the year down with almost all of that being attributed to the first quarter. Adding a $200 million, we expect from our two most recent acquisitions that we anticipate our 2018 consolidated sales will be approximately $1.9 billion. So turning to Slide 12, our guidance for 2018 consolidated EBITDA on an adjusted basis is approximately $240 million, which includes $20 million from the acquisitions and represented 20% increase compared to the prior year adjusted EBITDA of $200 million. Accordingly, our 2018 adjusted EPS guidance is projected to be between $4.05 and $4.25 per share, compared with $3.68 per share in 2018, which would represent a new record high adjusted EPS for the company and a 12% plus increase using the midpoint of the range. Capital expenditures as Mike had said earlier for this year, are expected to be approximately $65 million to $75 million, which includes approximately $7.5 million as a carryover from 2018. the completion of our new naphthalene unit in Stickney, Illinois, around midyear, high return capacity expansion projects and PC, the integration of our newly acquired UIP and MAER businesses and improvements in the safety and reliability of our existing infrastructures. In summary, I feel good about where we are in the guidance provided, which would propel us once again, reach new highs in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS in 2018 while we also begin mapping out our exciting new future with new key additions to the company. I would now like to open it up for any questions.