Leroy Ball
Analyst · Northcoast Research. Please go ahead with your question
Thanks, Leroy. During 2011, we saw volume improvements on our carbon materials and chemicals products around the world, driving sales and profitability to higher levels as demand and capacity utilization have increased. The major in-market for the carbon materials and chemicals segment is aluminum. Although pricing for aluminum has fallen during the year, and resulted in capacity reductions in certain regions, the price has rebounded somewhat, and recent projections indicate that global aluminum production will increase by 5% or about 2.3 million tons in 2012. Using a ratio of 1 ton of carbon pitch for every 10 tons of aluminum produced, this needs and additional 230,000 tons of carbon pitch will be required to meet this projected increase in production. According to recent projections, the Middle East expects primary aluminum production, to increase by 1.5 million tons by 2015. This growth includes expansion of the EMAL's smelter at Abu Dhabi, which is expected to increase capacity from 750,000 tons to 1.4 million tons starting in the fourth quarter of 2013. In the [indiscernible] modern facility in Saudi Arabia, which will have a capacity of 740,000 tons with the first metal being produced by the end of 2012.
In addition to our carbon pitch products, we saw increased demand for our profitable downstream products, carbon black feedstock which is used in the production of carbon black for tires, and naphthalene used in the production of concrete and textiles. Phthalic anhydride product, continues to be a highly profitable product, and we believe the long term outlook is favorable, as it is tied closely to the U.S. automotive and housing industry. Current projections indicate that 2012 North American automobile production will increase by 860,000 units in 2012, with the U.S. light vehicle sales increasing to 13.6 million units. As mentioned earlier, orthoxylene prices which drives phthalic anhydride prices, had an all-time high level of $0.69 a pound in February. Our carbon black feedstock and naphthalene products have benefited from increases in the production of rubber for the tire industry, and concrete for the construction industry as Asian economies continue to generate fairly high growth rates. Global tire production is projected to grow annually at 4% representing an additional 50 million tires per year for 2015, with majority of this growth coming from emerging markets in Asia. The Asian growth entire demand is being driven mainly by automobile production, as automobile ownership rates and emerging markets continue to grow. Reports in indicate that current ownership rates in the western economies are in the range of around 500 vehicles for each 1,000 inhabitants, while ownership rates in China and India, are less than 50 vehicles for each 1,000 inhabitants implying many years of strong growth ahead in this market.
Cement production, an indicator for the concrete in market for our naphthalene product overseas, is projected to increase from 3.3 billion tons in 2010, to more than 3.8 billion tons in 2012, also, with the most of this growth coming from Asia. As we continue to grow our tar distillation capabilities in the Asian regions, we continue to benefit from strong demand for our downstream naphthalene and carbon black products. We also announced earlier today that we have entered into a memorandum of understanding with Nippon Steel Chemical and several other parties, to build a 250,000 metric ton tar distillation plant and 2 downstream plants producing needle coke and carbon black in the Jiangsu province in China. While the downstream plants will be owned by Nippon Steel Chemical, Koppers will be the majority owner of the tar distillation plant. I’m very excited about the expansion of our presence in the growing Chinese markets, and becoming a supplier of pitch for needle coke to a new partner.
Regarding the outlook for coal tar raw material, we have recently seen some reduced availability of coal tar in North America, Europe and Australia, due to the idling and lower production rates of certain coke batteries due to lower steel production, as well as alternative technologies have reduced coking requirements. This reduced availability coupled with increased demand for carbon pitch, is expected to result in higher tar cost in these regions as we move through 2012. To the extent necessary, we have the ability to increase our current imports of carbon pitch into these regions, from other operations or from third parties, and we will also have the ability to extend our carbon pitch supplies through the use of certain petroleum feedstocks that are compatible with coal tar.
In our North American railroad business, we continue to see strong levels of crosstie purchases. For 2011, [indiscernible] were up 17% compared to 2010, with expectations for continued strong levels in 2012. As noted earlier, we continue to see increases in volumes for commercial crossties, as the short lines continue to upgrade their rail lines to accommodate heavier rail carts. We estimate total capital spending by the Class 1 railroads was about $12 billion in 2011, but approximately $7.5 billion of this amount going into the maintenance of weight [ph] spending which includes crossties and rail joint products. Recent projections for the railroad industry indicate that capital spending by the Class 1 railroads is expected to increase by about 8% to $13 billion in 2012. In addition to our North American railroad market will be exporting $9 million to $11 million of concrete - excuse me, of crossties into South America in 2012 which is a new growth market for this business. Our proprietary borate treatment process was utilized at several of our treating plants during 2011, and this resulted in increased revenues and profitability in our railroad business. We also believe the addition of this product, along with the rail joint of our products, has enhanced the relationships with our important Class 1 railroad customer base, by expanding the overall range of products and services we provide.
As mentioned earlier, we closed our non-core carbon black plant in Australia due to difficult market conditions, and more recently, we announced that we are closing our wood treating plant in Granada, Mississippi. Our Granada plant has been a low-performing operation over the last several years, and the closure will allow us to consolidate production to other wood treating plant locations. While decisions like these are never pleasant, we thought that they were necessary to reduce our overall cost structure, and improve the profitability of our business. We will continue to review additional consolidation options that could improve on our return on investment capital for the company as a whole.
Regarding the profit outlook for 2012, as I mentioned earlier, we have reflected our strategic plan targets in our most recent investor presentation. As noted in the presentation, our earnings per share target for 2015 is $6.50 a share, which will require significant earnings growth on an annual basis going forward. Without providing a specific number for 2012, we believe our earnings growth will be in the range required to keep us on pace to meet our 2015 EPS target.
At this time, I would like to open the discussion for any questions that you may have. Carla [ph]?