Earnings Labs

The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 9, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Coca-Cola Company's Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the formal question and answer portion of the call. I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors and, therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's Media Relations department if they have questions. I would now like to introduce Tim Leveridge, Vice President and Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Leveridge, you may begin.

Timothy K. Leveridge - Vice President, Officer of Investor Relations

Management

Good morning and thank you for being with us today. I'm joined by: Muhtar Kent, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; James Quincey, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Kathy Waller, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to inform you that you can find webcast materials in the Investors section of our company website at www.coca-colacompany.com that support the prepared remarks by Muhtar, James and Kathy this morning. I would also like to note that we have posted schedules under the Financial Reports and Information tab in the Investors section of our company website. These schedules reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures, which may be referred to by our senior executives during this morning's discussion, to results as reported under generally accepted accounting principals. Please look on our website for this information. In addition, this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, and should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's most recent periodic SEC report. Following prepared remarks this morning, we will turn the call over for your questions. In order to allow as many people to ask questions as possible, we ask you to limit yourself to one question. Now, let me turn the call over to Muhtar. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. In late 2014, we announced a clear five point plan to reinvigorate our growth and increase profitability. We committed to transform the company to one that is focused on our core value creation model of building strong brands, enhancing customer relationships, and leading our franchise system with a goal of becoming a leaner, higher margin, higher return and more focused company. And I'm pleased to say…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question is from Bill Schmitz of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Morning, Bill.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

I'm great. How are you? Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Great. Thanks.

William G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Hey, can you just talk about why now is the right time to pull all this stuff forward on the refranchising front because, obviously, there's like a ton of macro volatility? I know there was some challenges as you kind of wanted to standardize the IT platform and then even some of the key account stuff, which I thought had a little bit of a longer tail. So any thoughts you have on that would be appreciated. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Thanks, Bill. Ever since I took over as CEO, I have always emphasized the importance of our franchise model. And one of my clear priorities was to accelerate growth in our biggest profit pool, the United States. And we bought the business of CCE, U.S. operations with that goal in mind. So when you think about it now, we've been able to prove to ourselves that we can accelerate the business in North America. We've had the best year in 2015, and you saw the results from the quarter. And these results show that our strategic focus on driving consumption of smaller package sizes is continuing to pay off. Transactions are growing. Price/mix is healthy. And so we're bringing those two things together, both the goal of going back, returning to our core model, which we've always emphasized, even the first time we announced the purchase of CCE's U.S. operations, we said there will be a role for partnerships going forward as soon as we can put some things right. We have got the three legs of the stool in place, the customer governance, production governance, and the IT platforms. And so we feel very confident. We have proven to ourselves that we can do it and we feel very confident that this is the time. The new model is established. Bottler performance is improving. We have a new structure to last us the next number of decades. And we're putting our bottlers in the right hands. As Kathy said, the bottlers are very healthy and thanks to the great leadership and capability of our Bottling Investments Group. And so, yes, we are now going to the core and this is the time. And we feel very confident that we can do the two things together, accelerate momentum and bring the franchising to a bookend that really, we feel, is going to be very beneficial both to our company, our shareowners, as well as to leading to better customer service and better value creation on the bottler side. So it's really a win-win from all those perspectives, Bill.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Good morning. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning, Bonnie. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Morning, Bonnie.

Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

I was hoping you could actually give us a concrete example that gave you the confidence to make the decision to accelerate your refranchising plans. And then, while your margin should certainly expand and your returns will increase, could you help frame for us the incremental dilution expected from the new system? And then finally, I'd like to hear what your plans are for the cash you'll receive from the planned sale of the 39 production facilities, which I guess, I assume should raise a fair amount of cash, considering I think the earlier sales, the nine sites, had a book value of $280 million, if I'm not mistaken. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Bonnie. I'll say a few words and then I'll let Kathy and James comment, too. But I'll say that certainly, we have the proof points in the United States. Our Chinese business, for example, also has great momentum, gaining share and growing in that difficult environment, if you look at the quarter, if you look at the full year results. And the capability that has been put into place in all our expanding bottlers, everywhere, is really giving us the confidence. And also just look at the momentum of the business. Our revenue growth was a priority. We got it up to the 4% to 5% range. And the increased marketing is working, clearly, and now better marketing was even going to enhance that. And at the same time, we feel that every time the territory has transitioned, it's actually continued to do well, continued to gain share, continued to drive momentum, continued to drive incremental transactions. And from that, any of the territories in the last four, five quarters that have been transitioned, we have seen, without exception, that to…

Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And so the best way we can give you some indication of that is really to kind of help you understand what our business will look like when everything is said and done in 2018 and beyond, which is what we're going to try to do at CAGNY. So I would ask you just hold off on that, and more to come on that. And then on the question about cash, so the cash will basically go into basically our capital structure and be part of just our normal mix. And at this point, no board level decisions have been made, so we anticipate that these proceeds will be used to strengthen our balance sheet.

Bonnie L. Herzog - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

All right. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: So, Muhtar, you've posted a couple quarters in a row with volume growth back up in the 3% range, along with solid pricing, despite the difficult emerging markets macro environment we're seeing. So, I just wanted to get an update on your market share performance. Obviously, you're gaining share, but have you seen a relative change in terms of incremental market share performance and what level of payback you're getting on the higher marketing? And as you look out to 2016, 4% to 5% organic sales growth is a fairly tight range. So how much visibility do you think you have around that? Could macros pose a risk to that guidance, particularly given you're assuming higher GDP growth? Thanks. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Dara. As I mentioned, we're pleased with our market share performance, value share gains across the world, and I'll let James highlight some details on that. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah. Thanks, Muhtar. So, Dara, let me just give you a quick run round the world, in terms of share. I mean, firstly, on an overall global basis, perhaps consistent with our strong fourth quarter, we gained a little more share in the fourth quarter than we had in the whole year, so a better performance at the tail end. And in terms of how that played out across the world, you see, again, in line with the volume performance, strong results in North America. We…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from John Faucher of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. Two questions here; first off, it's a little tough with all the refranchising of the bottlers to get a handle in terms of what's truly going on on the gross margin. So, can you try and strip some of the impact out from the refranchising and give us an idea what the underlying gross margin is doing? And then, Kathy, going back to your points on the balance sheet, can you just sort of talk about what you're seeing out there that's causing you to maybe term-out some of the longer term debt? Is it just sort of the short market volatility, or is this something where you would expect to maybe go with a more conservative balance sheet approach on a go-forward basis? Thanks. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, John. So the gross margins in fourth quarter impacted by the six fewer days, and the currency and then the structural impact. So, if you take all of that out, basically, we had good gross margin expansion in the fourth quarter and for the full year. What was the second question? So, the balance sheet, basically, as we've got so much cash that's outside of the United States, we are taking a little bit more of a conservative approach with our balance sheet. And it was just more prudent to manage with the longer-term maturities than with short-term maturities. So, we still have a robust portfolio of commercial paper. So we're just kind of balancing that out differently.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay, and if I can ask one quick follow-up on that, in terms of the interest income line and some of the cash balances overseas, any change in that approach, or is this mostly going to be on the interest expense line? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Basically, it's going to be on the interest expense line. Yeah.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think we're expecting much more interest expense, given the rate changes. But also, the longer-term maturities are also causing more interest expense.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Got it. Thanks. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brett Cooper of Consumer Edge Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Brett Cooper - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst · Consumer Edge Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Good morning. One of your stated strategies was to improve the balance of price/mix and volume in your developed markets, and we've clearly seen that in the U.S. But I was hoping you could walk around the world and offer us what you're seeing in other developed markets, provide us with your prospects and confidence for improving price/mix in other developed markets around the world going forward. Thanks. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Brett. I think, if you look at our overall for the whole year, and as well as for the quarter, our price/mix globally, you can see that that has improved. As was mentioned, part of the reason for that is we're beginning to see the results of the increased marketing play through as well as our packaging strategies and mix management. And coupled with that, the value share gains, which is even more pleasing, given that we're able to get healthy pricing in our business and in our markets around the world, but I'll let James comment in terms of Europe and Japan and what is being seen in some of the other developed markets in addition to the United States, okay? James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah, thanks, Muhtar. I think firstly, it's important to remember, starting with Europe, that our price positioning in Europe, we have, over time, substantially taken a lot of rate and mix in Europe, such that we are more premium priced compared to our competitors than we are in North America, so less runway in that sense. Now, having said that, we continue to focus on smaller packages, more premium offerings in terms of the brand portfolio, such that despite what is a pretty deflationary retail environment in a number of Western European markets, we're getting price/mix in Europe, both in the quarter and for the full year. So I think going out, one should not expect the same sort of levels the U.S. has been able to develop, especially given the macro environment in Europe at the moment. In terms of Japan, we're very focused on rebuilding our ability to get positive price/mix in Japan. We've recently been able to get some, again, very focused on leveraging both packaging options and the brand portfolio to reshape it to allow us to drive positive mix. Again, I don't think you will see, in Japan, the same sorts of levels as the U.S., as much as anything to do with the deflationary pressures in Japan. But we are starting to see chances of a better pricing environment in Japan.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Hey, good morning, everyone. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning, Bryan. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Just wanted to get a couple of points of color on the productivity program. I guess, Kathy, to start, you're keeping the original $3 billion plan, but a portion of the COGS opportunity is now going to go off with the refranchising, so could you just give us some sort of idea of just how big that is, how much you had to sort of make up in terms of keeping the $3 billion where it is? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Certainly. So we will lose about $500 million of productivity, primarily out of cost of goods sold. But, again, we committed to making up that lost amount and we're going to make it up between cost of goods sold, operating expenses, and DME.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. And so net, this productivity plan is actually now a little bit bigger than it originally would have been. Is that just a function of as you're doing more, you're finding more savings, or was the refranchising kind of motivating you to look for more savings, just trying to get a sense if there's more momentum building on the productivity program itself? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, we always said we were going to continue to look for additional productivity opportunities, and so we have done just that. And we've learned a lot about our costs as we have continued the programs, the ZBW as well as other cost optimization programs. So basically, we've looked end-to-end and we saw additional opportunity and we're going to take it.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. And then just last one, of that $500 million that essentially goes off in refranchising, will that actually still be realized within the franchise system? So does the Coke system itself still see the $500 million of savings, or is that kind of lost because it needed to be sort of integrated with Coke to get it? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, it will be captured by the system.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. Great. Thank you. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We've been hoping that they can find additional areas, Bryan, to even increase that going forward. Part of the whole plan around the production governance is also to ensure that we can actually lever and pull more synergies out of our production system in the entire sort of template of North America production. So, yes, the answer is a definite yes.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. So from a systems perspective, this is truly incremental savings. It's just a matter of where we're seeing it. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: That's right. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Correct.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Morning.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

I wanted to come back to the Asia Pacific region. I have two questions. First is on price/mix, and then second on China specifically. So price/mix in the quarter was down 9%, and margins were down pretty significantly. James, I think you talked about re-staging the sparkling business, and I know there's been some negative geographic mix, so a little bit more color there would be helpful. And then the second piece on China, 1% volume growth, but you were cycling a pretty soft compare of down 1% last year. Maybe you could just elaborate a bit on what you're seeing in that market and your expectation here over the next 12 months. Thanks. James Quincey - President & Chief Operating Officer: Sure. A, let me start with the price/mix in Asia Pacific. I think the most important thing to note here is because the different geographies in the Asia Pacific group have some quite different pricing and concentrate shipments can be lumpy, you do get some erratic price/mix numbers on a quarterly basis. And that's exactly what you're seeing in the fourth quarter in Asia Pacific. So there were more shipments to somewhere like India than Japan. You can actually see the flip side of this in the Eurasia group, where we got very strong price/mix in the fourth quarter, which was the flip side. We had more shipments to places like South Africa than the Middle East. So this is all about country mix. I think it's important for particularly those two groups, Asia Pacific and Eurasia, to look at some longer-term four quarter trend line on price/mix, given the very impactful country mix issue and the lumpiness of concentrate shipments. So that's the key thing there. And then in terms of China, clearly not as much as we would have liked to have grown in China in the first quarter; I think that the environment in China is pretty clearly having slowed down, but we think we had a strong momentum over the last couple of years coming back into China. We're looking to do better in 2016, but we don't actually provide country-based forecasts. What I would say, however, is we're continuing to do very strongly in terms of share, particularly in sparkling, as we've re-energized that business.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Very good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Powers from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Thank you very much. So actually a relatively quick set of questions for each of you, if I could; first, Muhtar, on refranchising and the decision to retain hot-fill and juice assets, is that an indefinite plan or is that subject to further review? And similarly, thinking about China and the rest of the world, should we be thinking differently about your plans in India in terms of future refranchising in that market as well? And then, Kathy, the 4% to 5% organic growth you're calling out for next year, can you just give us maybe a rough sense of volume versus price within that and how much, if any, you expect to spend incrementally on A&P in order to achieve what amounts to underlying acceleration? And then finally, James, sorry for all the questions, we debated this a little while back, and I'm just wondering if you've got additional thoughts in terms of your longer-term growth, how much you expect the portfolio to lean on stills versus sparkling, and do you think you have the right balance of demand building support against each of that in order to achieve your long-term goals? Thank you. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Steve, so related to juice and hot-fill and stills, stills continues to perform very well in North America for us and the template for stills production is completely different in terms of how it is configured to cold-fill. And juice is an integrated business. So given those aspects, we intend that for the future to not change the structure related to both hot-fill as well as to juice and our foodservice business. All will remain as integrated in that respect, and they're doing very well. And we feel that they add value to the overall…

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst · UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Ali Dibadj of Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Ali Dibadj - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. So on refranchisement, obviously, good news that it's going faster, but I still have a few questions on this. One is I get the discussion about holding onto juice. I'm not quite there on hot-fill, so if you can elaborate on that, that would be helpful. Trying to get a better sense, secondarily, about when you think you will actually be able to grow out of the dilution. So there's clearly dilution right now, and then 2016, 3% to 4%, and then probably 2017, but at what point will you be able to grow out of that dilution, given kind of better margin, top-line growth, et cetera? And then kind of the core question is that you mentioned your goal was by buying the North America Bottling, that you would be able to accelerate momentum for sales and profitability. And I agree you've kind of done that, going to smaller pack sizes, increasing prices, closing some plants, increasing media spend, improving IT, but I guess I'm still confused why you had to buy one consolidated bottler, I guess, in North America to do a lot of those changes. I mean, why do you have to spend billions of dollars to push these changes through? Was there not a more efficient for shareholders way to do it? And I guess in that context, how do you give investors confidence? Because I get this question a lot, how do you give investors confidence that five, 10 years down the line, you won't have to buy these bottlers back again in North America? Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back to Muhtar Kent for closing remarks. Ahmet Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, James, Kathy, and Tim. So in summary, we delivered the plan that we laid out at the beginning of last year. And we made significant progress against our five strategic initiatives that we laid out. Importantly, our progress against these initiatives is leading to improving performance, even in a very challenging macro environment. And we are evolving and strengthening our global bottling system as we accelerate refranchising and return to a predominantly cost rate-driven model with significantly higher margins and returns. The long-term dynamics of our industry remain promising, and we absolutely believe that The Coca-Cola Company is best-positioned to capture that growth in non-alcoholic beverages and to deliver long-term value to our shareowners. And, as always, we thank you for your interest, your investment in our company, and for joining us this morning.