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The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 22, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Coca-Cola Company's Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. All participants will be in a listen-only mode until the formal question-and-answer portion of the call. I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors, and therefore questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's media relations department, if they have questions. I would now like to introduce Tim Leveridge, Vice President and Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Leveridge, you may begin. Timothy K. Leveridge - Vice President & Director-Investor Relations: Good morning and thank you for being with us today. I'm joined by Muhtar Kent, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Kathy Waller, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to inform you that you can find webcast materials in the Investor section of our company website at www.coca-colacompany.com that support the prepared remarks by Muhtar and Kathy this morning. I would also like to note that we have posted schedules under the Financial Reports & Information tab in the Investor section of our company website. These schedules reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures, which may be referral to by our senior executives during this morning's discussion, to our results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. Please look on our website for this information. In addition, this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, and should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's most recent periodic SEC report. Following prepared remarks by Muhtar and Kathy this morning, we will turn the call over for…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ma'am. The first question on queue is from Mr. John Faucher of JPMorgan. Sir, your line is open.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Thank you. Good morning. I want to talk a little bit about the advertising spending. There's been some questions – and I've had them myself – in terms of whether you're just sort of fighting a headwind in terms of trying to advertise the category. So, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing, how you're gauging the success that you're having, and kind of what we should expect from an advertising spending increase as a percentage of sales as we look out over the next sort of 12 months to 18 months? Thanks. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, John. It's Muhtar here. I'll just say a few top line remarks about it and then also ask both Sandy and Ahmet to give some more specific details on their – in specific markets. I'd say overall pleased with our initial results, but as we've previously discussed and as I've just recently said it takes some time, anywhere from 12 months to 18 months, to realize the full value in terms of a return on those investments. We've found that disciplined quality marketing investments drive growth better than any other strategy or action. We're seeing good initial results in markets that have received the incremental media investment and also have improved the quality of marketing in our case, and the marketing investments in North America is a great point, which is a clear contributing factor in the strong performance in the quarter – continued strong performance in North America and the performance is getting better with 5% growth in organic revenues and 4% price/mix. That price/mix and that volume and that, therefore, growth in organic revenue would not have been achieved clearly without the infusion of that marketing and the quality and the quantity.…

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mr. Steve Powers of UBS. Sir, your line is open.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. Thanks. I guess, first, could you just, maybe I missed it, but could you just address the reduction in net buybacks for the year and what lies behind that? Is free cash flow coming in weaker, because that would seem surprising, just given your working capital comments, et cetera? Or is there a competing use for cash that we should be considering? Just a housekeeping question. And then a kind of a broader question on productivity, the update and the report card you provided was certainly helpful, but I was wondering if you could maybe quantify what those initiatives translated into in terms of savings in the quarter? And how far along you are, admittedly early, against that ultimate $3 billion goal? I think that would help just frame where you are in the overarching initiative. And actually, if you could perhaps talk about other initiatives underway and what kinds of achievements we should look for on Q3 or Q4 report cards, that would be great as well? Thanks. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure, Steve. On the share buybacks; basically, we've given the range of $2 billion to $3 billion, so we're still in that range. We've looked at where we were for the first half of the year and then we looked at cash, particularly because of the currency getting worse in the back half, and just tightened the range. So, basically, we're still in that range, in that corridor, we just tightened the range. And then on the second question, on productivity, we have basically stated that we are $500 million for – we are on track. The working capital has allowed us to basically focus on share repurchase, even with the significant currency headwinds, so basically the productivity initiatives we – that we are on track. We didn't give specific initiatives that we were working on for this year; you know about the people initiatives that we had, and we said we were going to be on target with the $500 million for this year. They're still coming from the three areas, so we're still actively working on reducing our cost of goods sold and moving DME from more promotional activities into media spend. So we are basically on track. I don't know – I can't give you any other specifics, other than we are basically on track for the $500 million that we anticipated that we would have for this year.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Okay. That's helpful. Is it fair to assume that the savings build, and that there's more of an impact in the second half versus the first half? Or is it more kind of ratable throughout the year? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: You know, I don't know that I can quantify how they come throughout the year. Part of it was dependent upon when we started to see movement with some of the people, and we've not gotten – for instance, Europe has to focus on the working – had to work with the Work Council, so their initiatives with people are really just starting – although everybody is aware, the movement of people is just starting. So part of that will be coming out, now that they've been able to focus on their moving people initiative, but I don't know that I can quantify the how and when it all comes through, because we focus on dealing with the work first. And we deal with the work first and then a lot of the other impact will kind of trail, making sure that we deal with – that the organization is appropriately set up for success going forward, which included focusing on the global organization and restructuring how we worked with the global organization. So all I can say is, we are on target with everything that we've done. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Just adding to what Kathy mentioned, Steve, I'd say that also, in terms of simplifying our organization, wiring our business units closer and more directly to the functional centers in our company, that largely has taken place. We have essentially eliminated a functional layer in the company, allowing us to make faster and quicker and more effective decision-making in the company. That is already largely in place, and I think lots of continued work streams going on in COGS that will continue to benefit and help us to deliver more than the $500 million in savings for the year.

Stephen R. Powers - UBS Securities LLC

Management

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mr. Mark Swartzberg of SFI (sic) [Stifel] (29:58) Financial. Sir, your line is open. Mark D. Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yeah, thanks. It's Stifel Financial. But good morning, everyone. I guess, two questions here; one a region question, Muhtar, and then more a strategy question. With Asia Pac, at least versus my model, the price/mix was disappointing. It's only a quarter, and you highlighted China and I think some product mix issues; but when you think longer-term about price/mix in Asia Pac, given the superior growth I think you expect from China, what's a sound way to think about that region in the larger Coke system? And then, unrelated to that, or less related to that, when you think about scale and bolt-on M&A, can you just update us on your thinking for the larger Coke – how you're thinking about scale M&A and how you're thinking about bolt-on M&A? Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. First, Mark, good morning. On the Asia Pac, I think it pretty much came in line with what we were expecting, and it's related to timing, it's related to how you look at it on a year-to-date basis. And I'll have Ahmed comment on that once I finish. I'll just say a few things about the second question. In terms of scale M&A and bolt-on M&A, I think you need to think, we will be again looking at bolt-on targets that fit our strategic portfolio. That's the way you should think about our continued interest in any M&A, and how we target M&A. Just the same way as you've seen us look at it in the last three, four, five years, how we look at the acquisitions that we made, in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Good morning. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Morning. Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: So Muhtar, clearly very strong 4% pricing in North America. Can you run through how much of that was mix versus price, and then comment on the sustainability of higher pricing as you look out through the back half of the year once you cycle the higher pricing from last year? And longer term, how you think about any pricing? Clearly, we've seen a big improvement here over the last year, looks like it's worked well in terms of limited demand elasticity, some more longer term thoughts on pricing in North America? Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, thanks. I'd say look, I think, North America delivered strong second quarter revenue profit, value share performance, driven by better increased marketing, better marketing and a disciplined approach to both volume, price and mix management. Few things; mix management is working in our favor, consumer is very much approving the smaller packages. Smaller packages are growing much faster than larger packages, smaller packages have a higher NSR per liter, per gallon, per case; and therefore – then when price driven by – and the ability to keep the volume where it is and gain the price/mix, our historic best in terms of the past quarter performance in the United States. Why is that happening? More marketing, more focus on better marketing as well. So, the rate is coming through, mix from transactions and packs coming through, that is the general comment I'd make. And Sandy, if you want to provide more…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Vivien Azer of Cowen & Co. Your line is open. Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hi. Thank you so much for taking my question. I was going to focus on Diet Coke. While your total sparkling unit case volume growth was clearly impressive, Diet Coke continues to be challenged. And so, Sandy, could you please update us on what you're seeing in terms of North America? And then, Muhtar, if you could comment on any other geographies where you're seeing Diet present a challenge? Thank you. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Vivien. Firstly, I'd say, the challenge is never taken for granted, but the challenge is broadly very much a U.S. centric one, so let me just preface that and then have Sandy comment on what's happening in the United States and also comment – give you some more comments on other diet drinks like Coke Zero performance and so forth. J. Alexander M. Douglas, Jr. - Executive Vice President & President, Coca-Cola North America: Sure. As we've discussed in several of these calls and in our interactions more one-on-one, the Diet and frozen parts of the food and beverage industry have been struggling for a number of quarters, it's getting into years now, as the consumer, the U.S. consumer moves really strongly to fresh. It's a good dietary change, actually, for the country, but the impact on categories and particularly categories that are appealing to diet-oriented positionings has been pretty negative. Inside our particular portfolio, we have brands growing and have brands struggling, Coke Zero, as Muhtar mentioned, grew in the quarter. Diet Coke continues to struggle. Our near-term improvements, though, we're starting to see the consumer base stabilize. We have an incredible number of very…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Bryan.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Morning. So, just I had a question about geographic mix. I think you came up earlier that geographic mix was negative in the quarter. And is there any way you can outline for us if geographic mix also had a negative effect on profit margins or profitability? I know there's a lot of moving parts in the P&L, but when you kind of look at it currency-neutral, you saw some margin expansion. My thought is, within that margin expansion, you actually had some negative geographic mix on margins. So, any help on that would be helpful. And then I guess related to that, as we're modeling out the balance of this year and I guess it goes back to Mark Swartzberg's question about the Pacific region, should we continue to model in negative price, geographic price/mix into our models for Pacific in the back half of the year? Thank you. Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. Hi, Bryan. Yes, on the margin question, our margins were negatively impacted by currency and by structural. Obviously, there is always some negative geographic mix that plays into that, but if you look at our margins and if you look at Pacific gross margins first of all, and if you look at them on a comparable basis, we lost some margin; but then if you take out currency and then you take out structural, then we were at positive margins again. And the issue more is about gross margin, it's not so much about operating margin. Then on your second question, which was...

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Just related to price/mix, price/mix in Pacific, should we continue to see negative geographic mix there? Kathy N. Waller - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: It is normal in the Pacific to have negative geographic mix, just because of the base of the country – Japan, and then all of the emerging markets there. So, yeah, I would say for the remainder of the year, I would anticipate that we would have negative geographic mix in Pacific. Ahmet, do you want to comment on that? Ahmet C. Bozer - Executive Vice President & President, Coca-Cola International: Yeah. I mean definitely not in the numbers that you've seen in the second quarter, but the general trend of – around a couple of points of (44:11). However, we do continue to aggressively implement our more balanced top line growth in terms of price and volume across the territory, and we are aiming to improve on that.

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

All right. Thank you. And if I could just sneak one last one in for Sandy, if we're looking at smaller packs, the effect of smaller pack sizes in North America and just simply looking at it on transactions, I know it's kind of early, but is it incremental? So, if we were just measuring transactions, are the purchases of those smaller packages, are they incremental to the base business? Or is it cannibalistic? Thank you. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Before Sandy comments on that, Bryan, let me just also say that also, in many parts of the Pacific, since your question was somewhat related to the Pacific and in terms of geographic mix, I think sparkling and particularly, Bryan, Coca-Cola, again with things that are happening around advertising and media spend and better quality, is getting stronger. Whether you take Indonesia or whether you take Southeast Asia, whether you take China, sparkling is getting stronger, and momentum on sparkling is getting better. And therefore, I think you're also seeing a positive shift in category mix for us that is somewhat countered by continued geographic mix. So, I think there's a balance there, and I think we're happy to see that balance coming through. I just want to mention that, that important this year, we see that balance beginning to come through – more favorable balance coming through. And then, Sandy, if you want to talk about the smaller packages referenced? J. Alexander M. Douglas, Jr. - Executive Vice President & President, Coca-Cola North America: Sure. The growth in North America transactions is healthy, and that's coming from a number of things, but the small packages clearly are driving a tremendous amount of positive growth. Some of it is cannibalistic, but the cannibalistic nature of…

Bryan D. Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Nik Modi of RBC Capital. Sir, your line is open.

Nik H. Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Yeah. Thanks for the question. So, I just wanted to go back to the bottler reinvestment question, and maybe, Muhtar, you can give us some perspective on where the bottling match and resourcing has been most significant, just so we can get an understanding of kind of where there could be potential leading indicators on that impact on volume growth? Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Nik. Firstly, I would say to you, as I mentioned in my script, in remarks, that we had a very successful global system meeting back in May, and I've seen much more improved engagement and also commitment by our bottling partners across the board: small, large, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Eurasia and Africa, North America. So I'd say to you, it's broad-based; and I'd say to you that there is a great deal of excitement that is around our plans, particularly our reinvestment plan, and also great amount of commitment for better execution and more investment on the side of our bottling partners. So, as I look at the pipeline of investment, I would say, I am much more encouraged today than I was, say, 12 months to 18 months ago. And I believe that that's driven by our plans and, basically, our belief in the future, and what is happening is yielding early results, and that is driving that engagement.

Nik H. Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

And Muhtar, are we starting to see cooler placements actually hit the market, and more feet on the street? Or is this kind of bottler commitments on that they're going to do it at some point in the next quarter or two? Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No. We see it this year, and we will see it at a trend that continues to increase next year and beyond – certainly over a three-year period – here in the United States, in Latin America, in Europe, in Asia Pacific, in Eurasia and Africa.

Nik H. Modi - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Last question is from Ali Dibadj of Bernstein. Your line is open. You may proceed with your question. Ali Dibadj - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. Thanks. A couple of things I wanted to talk about, if possible. One is around top line and one is around asset base. First on the top line, I think you guys have done a pretty good job explaining and playing out the pieces in terms of price/mix, which is great. On the volume side, how would you describe the company trajectory right now, from a volume growth perspective? So, do you think we've seen the bottom, in terms of volume growth, after a series of kind of plus 1% and now at 2% and some easier comps going forward? So do you think we should be projecting kind of a turning point upward, in terms of volume growth for the company going forward? And I'll come back with the asset question in a second. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So, Ali, the algebra is volume times, price is what we generate as revenue and I think it's good that you ask that question and it's one of the important elements of the algebra. I think we're encouraged by actions where we basically expected to be. We're cycling 3% and we generated 2% and I think the volatility, as I mentioned in Russia on the verge of a recession today, from a macro point of view or Brazil where there's still significant challenges in disposable incomes; China disposable income levels haven't improved significantly. But importantly, improving trends on share were an all-time high in many markets, value share particularly which is very important and value share is driven again by the actions that we're taking. So,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back to Muhtar Kent for closing remarks. Muhtar Kent - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Kathy, Ahmet, Sandy, Irial and Tim. In summary, our second quarter results were in line with our expectations and as we enter the second half of our transition year, we are where we expected to be. While there's more work to do. As I said, we remain confident that we have the right plans in place to restore momentum in our global business. The long-term dynamics of our industry remain promising. And we absolutely believe that The Coca-Cola Company is best positioned to capture that growth in non-alcoholic beverages and to deliver long-term value to our share owners. As always, we thank you for your interest, your investment in our company and for joining us this morning.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.