Operator
Operator
At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Coca-Cola Company's fourth quarter 2006 earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Ann Taylor, Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Ann Taylor: I am pleased to be joined by Neville Isdell, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Gary Fayard, our Chief Financial Officer; and Muhtar Kent, our Chief Operating Officer. Following prepared remarks by Neville and Gary this morning we will turn the call over for your questions. Before we get started I'd like to remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives and should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's most recent SEC report. In addition I would also like to call your attention to the fact we have posted schedules on our company website at thecocacolacompany.com in the investor section which reconcile our results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles to certain non-GAAP measures which may be referred to by our senior executives in our discussion this morning, and from time to time in discussing our financial performance. Please look on our website for this information. Now let me turn the call over to Neville. Neville Isdell: Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. As usual I am going to make a few observations about the results, slightly more extended given that it's year end, and also highlight our accomplishments for 2006. And then, Gary is going to provide you with an overview for the financials, some additional perspective on '07. It's been yet another solid quarter, and we achieved full year results at the top end of our long-term growth targets for volume, for operating income, and for earnings per share. We again demonstrated the geographic diversity of our business and we continued to focus on daily execution right across the globe. For the year, we achieved 4% unit case volume growth resulting in ongoing currency neutral operating income of 8% and ongoing EPS growth of 9%. We also gained share -- numbers are just in -- globally, in all key categories with the exception only of ready-to-drink tea and coffee. For the year, international operations delivered 6% unit case volume growth. Performance in Latin America was particularly strong, growing 7% while cycling 6% growth in the prior year. Additionally, we achieved double-digit growth in key emerging markets. Those include China and Russia, Turkey, the Middle East, with solid growth throughout Africa. The European Union group delivered 6% growth with solid results in Spain, Central Europe; and, happy to say, continued improvement in Northwest Europe. Japan finished the year down as we predicted, but again, as we predicted, delivered sequential improvement with fourth quarter growing by 2%. The Philippines, by the way, continues to be a drag. In fact, the Philippine decline reduced our overall growth by 1% for the year. However, that was compensated for by the bolt-on acquisitions primarily in juice and water which therefore added 1% to the international unit case volume. So that balanced out the Philippines, but I just wanted to highlight the drag on those overall numbers. North America. North America was obviously disappointing from a volume perspective but it did contribute with solid profit growth as we focused on operating expense management and also we had solid performance in food service and the Minute Maid business but that was offset with weakness in retail, particularly of course evident in the second half of the year. We are going to talk to you more about our 2007 expectations in just a few minutes, particularly around North America. We have achieved the objectives that we set out for you at the beginning of the year. If I go back to December 2005 we articulated a clear and focused agenda. That was reinvigorate sparkling beverage growth; expand the footprint of our other core brands to capture emerging consumer needs; lead the franchise; and, address and of course, correct as issues arise. I'd like to review our progress on each one of these. First of all, reinvigorating sparkling beverage growth. Sparkling beverages, what we simply define as nonalcoholic ready-to-drink consumer beverages with carbonation grew 4% for the year and achieved its highest growth rate in almost a decade -- since 1998 to be exact. That success was driven, I'm happy to say, by our core global brands with trademark Coke up 3% -- again the highest rate since '98 -- and Fanta up 4%, Sprite up 5%. All these brands represented an additional 11.7 billion servings last year. Think about it; that's almost two additional servings for every single person on the planet. I'll highlight trademark Coca-Cola, because we executed on four key global initiatives to drive growth. The Coke Side of Life. Our integrated global Coca-Cola marketing campaign has now run in almost 100 markets representing over 85% of worldwide Coca-Cola volume. The Happiness Factory spot has been a star performer, scoring, in fact, as our best ever global commercial. I'm sure many of you have seen some of our other spots such as Video Game on American Idol and during the Super Bowl. It's not only good reviews. What these commercials are doing is driving increased efficiency, as our television commercial reuse rate was double our 2002 to 2005 average, resulting in a mid-teens percentage reduction in our overall TVC production and agency fees. Second, in over 100 markets we launched an integrated marketing platform threaded together by a unifying theme We All Speak Football, supporting the very successful FIFA World Cup. We saw the results not only in volume but across key marketing scores such as favorite brand and purchase intent. Third, the rollout of Coca-Cola Zero was a really important success, contributing almost one-third of trademark Coca-Cola's growth and driving incremental share gains by sourcing volume from competitors. In 2006, Coke Zero launched in 14 new markets from Australia to Ireland. By the end of 2007, we will have reached over 35 markets. Last, interactive communications. CocaCola.com, our common Internet platform, launched in 31 countries in 11 languages and reached 664 million impressions. It is really a step change in recruiting and connecting our brands to teens in a truly unique way. We're really leveraging their passions for entertainment, for sports and for music. In all, trademark Coca-Cola, Sprite, and Fanta contributed over half of the growth for the year, and as I mentioned earlier, we gained share in sparkling beverages globally. Secondly, expanding the footprint of our core brands. We've done that by capturing emerging consumer need states and that was our second priority. Let me give you some data. 2006 we continued to build our innovation pipeline with the total of 1,383 total product and package launches: 590 of those were new, and 367 were existing products launched into new markets. Trademarks Dasani, POWERade, and Aquarius continue to perform solidly. In packaged water we gained share, excluding the impact of the strategic decision on the Dannon brands in North America. The sports and energy categories continued to be a strong growth area and a global opportunity. Our juice platform continued to evolve. As you know, we're already the global leader in juice and juice drinks and we increased our global presence through trademark Minute Maid's expansion and key acquisitions. Trademark Minute Maid was launched in nine new countries and volume increased 7% with solid growth in China, Korea, Great Britain, and Belgium. In the U.S., our warehouse juice and juice drinks portfolio continued to gain volume and value share as we successfully implemented price increases in what is a difficult cost environment. The acquisitions of Multon in Russia which took place during 2005 and the recent announcement of Jugos del Valle, the second largest producer of packaged juices and fruit-flavored beverages in Mexico and the largest producer in Brazil, solidify our global leadership in juice. In fact, it makes us number one in Latin America. The activity resulted in a one percentage point increase in our volume and value share of international juices and juice drinks. Third on our agenda is leading the franchise. From my first day back I have stressed that the Coca-Cola Company, in order to excel, needs our whole system to be healthy and to be aligned. This is more than just a financial metric. It's about changing the mind-set of our people to take a total system focus and understand the value chain all the way from consumer to manufacturer. But it's also about making the hard decisions, and we have done that time and again. In Germany, we have made significant progress on the creation of a one bottle system in order to move more effectively and more efficiently to serve the marketplace. In Latin America, we jointly created with our bottling partners a new system operating framework. You have also seen us take control of our destiny in certain markets. In China with the Cary franchise the Company made a proactive decision which will clearly facilitate new long-term investment plans to expedite the already fast-growing China business. The most recent company announcement that the company has now agreed with our bottlers to acquire the remaining stake in the Philippines, and this is going to be a significant issue with regard to 2006 [sic]. You all know I have got a long history with the Philippines, and I believe that we can bring about a turnaround starting with that acquisition in 2007. So let me come to the fourth point. Address and of course correct as issues arrive. Now, addressing issues is always going to be something that happens to a company that operates in 200 countries. What we did is we highlighted at the beginning of the year three markets in particular that needed addressing. They were the Philippines -- which we have already covered -- the European Union group, and India. As for the EU group, particularly in parts of Western Europe and India, the results have certainly improved. For the EU group, we are continuing to see the results of world-class execution of our key programs and alignment with our bottling partners. The results: sparkling beverage growth of 4%, still beverage growth of 20% plus and our low or no calorie beverages amounting to 62% of our total growth. 2006 demonstrated our ability to remain focused on our commitments and to rebuild a solid foundation. Of course, we are not claiming victory. We must grow our core sparkling beverages, take share in emerging and existing store categories, and continue with breakthrough innovation. India's fourth quarter results were certainly encouraging. Unit case volume increased 12%, and we certainly gained overall value share there as well. We would expect India to return to its prior growth story over the long term, and we will continue to reinforce the trust campaign, which has worked so well in supporting the safety and quality of every Coca-Cola product. Additionally, during the year we highlighted Japan, as weakness in our core brands, particularly Georgia Coffee, impacted our results. We committed to you a sequential quarterly improvement, and we have delivered against our commitment in our fourth quarter. As I announced earlier unit case volume increased 2%, cycling a 1% growth in the prior year quarter. The quarter's overall results reflect stabilization in performance and an improved position for growth in 2007. As you will note, we have quickly addressed issues in markets that have required it, and we put them back on the right path. The last key market to address currently therefore is North America. In North America, we are not satisfied with our performance and in 2007, our system faces a challenging cost environment and weak sparkling beverage trends. We're now moving forward in a collaborative aligned way with our North American bottling system to meet the market challenges. However, we do expect 2007 to be weak, particularly in the first half of the year, as we cycle strong performance in the prior year. The second half of 2007 we do, however, expect to see sequential improvement and evidence of momentum building in North America as we execute against our key goals. Leading growth in sparkling beverages led by trademark Coca-Cola is one of those key goals. Delivering the fastest value growth in still beverages is another. Finally, the other leg of the stool, being the preferred beverage partner for our customers. No matter which market you examine the basics are clear. When an issue arose we quickly identified the root causes, developed and communicated our action plan, and delivered results. While I'm sure other issues will arise, our ability to better anticipate consumer and customer needs and provide customized solutions when executing our initiatives is going to allow to us rapidly address and course-correct when these unfortunate things occur. Let me say this, however: while we achieved these short-term strategic operational and financial objectives there is more we now need to do. Our momentum is building as we begin to realize the extent of our full potential. Before turning the call over to Gary I'd like to highlight some recent key management moves. First, I'd like to congratulate the gentleman sitting next to me, Muhtar Kent, who was elected by the Board in early December as President and Chief Operating Officer. This clearly recognizes the success of our international operations this year, but also Muhtar's 25 years of system experience and achievement. Additionally we announced changes to our operating structure to align geographic responsibility. Glenn Jordan is going to assume responsibility for the Pacific Group including Japan, China, and the Philippines. Ahmet Bozer was promoted to lead the Eurasia group. Ahmet is a tremendous operator. You heard me talk about the Middle East results; Russia, part of his existing territory. He's got both company and bottling experience, a trend that you have seen developing in terms of a number of the appointments that we've made. He's certainly well deserving of his expanded responsibilities. Muhtar, with his large bandwidth, and his belief in operational excellence, is going to be highly focused on our priorities for this year and we together look forward to coming back to you in the future to discuss our progress, and, of course, he's here to answer your questions later on. So I will now be focused on the job that I was originally recruited for, Chairman and CEO. In summary, I believe that we now have in place a firm foundation from which to build our business going forward. Our strategies are working. We will continue to effectively manage our portfolio brands and countries to capture the highest value opportunities. We will undoubtedly hit bumps in the road along the way. That's what happens when you operate in 200 countries, but our strategies and objectives remain the same. I believe that we have demonstrated our intent to lead the franchise with strength and capabilities in consumer marketing and customer and commercial leadership, and to take the right actions against a consistent focus on delivering superior long-term returns to our shareholders. Now let me turn the call over to Gary. Gary Fayard: Thanks, Neville and good morning, everyone. As you saw in the release we had a very good year in 2006 and it's a great base to start 2007. We reported earnings per share for the year increased 6% to $2.16. This included a net charge of $0.21 per share primarily related to a non-cash impairment charge at CCE in the fourth quarter. After considering items impacting comparability in both years, earnings per share was $2.37 versus $2.17 in the prior year, a 9% increase. For the quarter, we reported EPS of $0.29 per share, which included a net charge of $0.23 per share, primarily related to the CCE impairment charge after considering comparability items, EPS for the quarter increased 13%. In addition, our 2006 underlying effective tax rate on operations was 22.4% versus the previous estimate that I had given you of 23.5%, to bring the effective tax rate for the year in line with the current estimate. We reported income tax expense at a rate of approximately 18.2% in the fourth quarter which resulted in a tax benefit of about $0.03 per share for the quarter and the year. For the year, volume growth was 4% after considering factors impacting comparability and a 1% negative currency impact. Operating income growth was 8%, along with the ongoing EPS growth of 9%. All of those results at the top end of our long-term growth targets. For the year, we repurchased $2.5 billion of our stock, an increase of 24% over the prior year and that added 2 points of growth to earnings per share for the year. Additionally, the company paid $2.9 billion as dividends in 2006. In all, a total return of 23% for 2006. The fourth quarter was a strong finish to a very solid year of performance. Now turning to 2007, let me address some of the factors that we see impacting our outlook. Our benchmark for success will continue to be our long-term growth targets, 3% to 4% volume growth, 6% to 8% ongoing currency-neutral operating income growth, and high single-digit ongoing EPS growth. In addition, our initial read on the macro economic outlook for the year is relatively positive, especially in many of our emerging markets. We will continue to portfolio manage globally as we expect solid performance in most of our markets with weak performance in North America, particularly in the first half as we cycle strong volume and profit results. In Europe, while performance is improving we will face cycling the favorable weather through most of the second half 2007 and of course, the World Cup. However, we have solid plans in place and we'll continue to focus on executing the fundamentals of the business. As with 2006, we would again expect our consolidated bottling operations to be a positive contributor as we focus on building world-class operations. Currently, we have not included the consolidation of the Philippines bottler in our plans. The Philippines bottler acquisition is expected to close in the first quarter. After the transaction is closed we will provide an update on our expectations for that business going forward. In terms of input cost in 2007, there's certainly unprecedented upward pressure. However, this is primarily in North America for juice and sweetener. Although we do expect to see an increase, we will continue to manage the overall impact on our business just as we did in 2006 through appropriate pricing and other strategies. We expect SG&A trends for 2007 to be similar to full-year 2006 results. We will continue to invest behind our brands and innovation initiatives. Additionally, selling and service expenses will increase as we invest for growth in our bottling operations as well as reflecting the impact of bottling operations we owned for only a partial part of the year in 2006. General and administrative expenses were tightly controlled in 2006, and we will continue our disciplined approach in 2007. We would expect net interest cost to increase primarily due to lower cash balances and higher debt balances. You will note that our net debt balance going into 2007 is approximately $2 billion, double the level from a year ago. We would expect that level to increase during the year due to share repurchase dividends and capital spending. Also keep in mind that we reduced our ownership position in Coca-Cola FEMSA and our Turkish bottler along with CCE's recent announcement on restructuring that will impact our equity income. With regard to taxes and as previously mentioned, we ended up the year with an underlying effective rate of 22.4%. Our best estimate for 2007 is that the full year underlying effective tax rate on operations will be about 23%. We anticipate that our range for share repurchase in 2007 will be between $2.5 billion and $3 billion. Now let me turn to currency. As we look into 2007 based on current spot rates and the anticipated benefits of hedging coverage in place, we currently expect very little impact from currency in 2007. We have begun to put coverage in place and are effectively covered through the first half of '07 on the euro and for the first quarter on the yen. From a CapEx standpoint, we purchased approximately $1.4 billion in property, plant, and equipment during 2006; for 2007 we expect that amount to increase to about $1.5 billion as we make investments in recently acquired bottling operations. Additionally, early last month we finalized the payment for the remaining shares of CCAG, our German bottler, as part of the exercise of our put-call provision that we previously disclosed the total amount of that payment was approximately $1 billion. For quarterly modeling purposes, we will have one less shipping day in the first quarter and one more in the fourth quarter as compared to 2006. Before I close I wanted to touch on a comment in the release and that Neville referred to about the new reporting segments, the Pacific and Eurasia. Beginning in the first quarter we will begin to report these geographically realigned operating segments and as we get closer to the first quarter release we will provide you with historical data on the new segments. That's it for the topics I wanted to cover this morning. Neville, Muhtar and I are now ready for your questions.