David A. Jackson
Analyst · Todd Fowler with KeyBanc
Maybe, Todd, just an insight here, as we look at how the year kind of plays out, when you're really comparing these quarters to what happened last year. Last year, we saw more meaningful rate improvement in the first quarter, and it kind of decelerated as the year went on, particularly when you look at what we would consider to be the adjusted loaded rate per mile, and so -- you can could go back -- and we've given you the rate per mile and if you take that length of haul, you take 1/3 of it and a longer length of haul, you would add it to the rate. If it was a shorter length of haul, you would subtract a 1/3 of the length of haul, right? If you go back, you'll see that last year first quarter, so the first quarter ended 2012, our revenue, adjusted revenue per loaded mile, was up 4%. So that's what we're going up against. And as Kevin mentioned earlier, our adjusted revenue per loaded mile, ending the fourth quarter of 2012, was more like 1.5%. And so, as the year played out in 2012, we went from 4%, year-over-year adjusted, in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, 1.2% in the third quarter and then 1.5% in the fourth quarter. And so, this year, as we see it play out, we feel -- when we talk about the way we feel about rates today, it will take a little time for that effort to fully materialize as we work through the bids and as we work through this. And then on top of that, we're going up against a year where we made pretty good improvement this time of the year. So when you look at both fleet growth, when you look at revenue per mile improvement, you may see those a little on the lower end during the first 2 quarters of the year. And the way we see it now -- and, hey, this is an uncertain time, it's hard to know it's going to happen, but we would expect to see the rate opportunity improve as the year goes on, which is the opposite of how it played out in 2012.