KMTUY (KMTUY) Q3 2025 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

So this is Horikoshi, CFO. I'd like to share with you the financial results for the third quarter of FY 2025. So Page -- Slide 4, this is a summary of the 3-months period of the third quarter FY 2025. The FX rate were JPY 152.8 per U.S. dollar, JPY 177.5 per euro, and JPY 100.2 per Aussie dollar. Compared to this year-on-year, the yen depreciated from the previous year. And also the sales increased and the OP increased by -- net sales increased 3.5% to JPY 1.02 trillion. OP decreased by 12.7% to JPY 142 billion. Operating income ratio declined by 2.5 points to 13.9%. Net income decreased by 13.1% year-on-year to JPY 94.1 billion. Slide 5 shows sales and profit by segment for the third quarter. Sales in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment business increased by 3% year-on-year to JPY 945.8 billion. Segment profit decreased by 17.9% to JPY 120.7 billion. The segment profit ratio declined by 3.2 points to 12.8%. In Retail Finance, revenues increased by 6.2% year-on-year to JPY 32.1 billion and segment profit increased by 29.9% to JPY 9.1 billion. Sales in the Industrial Machinery & Others business increased by 11.8% year-on-year to JPY 55.8 billion, and segment profit increased by 47.7% to JPY 10.7 billion. I will explain the factors behind these changes later. Slide 6 shows sales by region for the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment business for the 3 months period. Sales in this segment increased by 3% year-on-year to JPY 943.2 billion. While sales decreased in Asia, mainly due to sluggish demand for both mining and general construction equipment in Indonesia, sales increased in Latin America, Europe and Africa. On a constant currency basis, sales remained flat year-on-year. Slide 7 provides a summary for the 9 months period of FY 2025. The FX rates were JPY 148.5 to the dollar, JPY 170.4 to the euro and JPY 96.3 for the Australian dollar. Compared to the same period last year, the yen appreciated against the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar, however, depreciated against the euro. Net sales decreased by 1.4% year-on-year to JPY 2.915 trillion. Operating income decreased by 10.1% to JPY 419 billion. The operating income ratio declined by 1.4 points to 14.4%. Net income decreased by 13% year-on-year to JPY 269.8 billion. Slide 8 shows sales and profit by segment for the 9 months period. Sales in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment business decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to JPY 2.688 trillion. Segment profit decreased by 14.7% to JPY 362.6 billion. The segment profit ratio declined by 2 percentage points to 13.5%. In Retail Finance, revenues increased by 1.1% year-on-year to JPY 93.1 billion. Segment profit increased by 19.1% to JPY 26 billion. Sales in the Industrial Machinery & Others business increased by 10.9% year-on-year to JPY 162.7 billion. Segment profit increased by 81.1% to JPY 27.3 billion. I will explain the factors behind these changes later. Slide 9 shows sales by region for the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment business for the 9 months period. Sales in this segment decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to JPY 2.6805 trillion. Although sales decreased in Asia, North America and Japan, sales increased in Latin America, Europe and Africa. On a constant currency basis, sales decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. Slide 10 details the factors affecting sales and segment profit in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment business for the 9 months period. Regarding sales, the positive impact of improved selling prices was outweighed by the negative impacts of the yen's appreciation and reduced volume, resulting in a decrease of JPY 60.4 billion year-on-year. As for segment profit, despite the positive impact of improved selling prices, it was outweighed by the negative impact of the yen's appreciation and reduced volume and increased costs, resulting in a decrease of JPY 62.3 billion year-on-year. Slide 11 shows the result of Retail Finance for the 9 months period. Assets increased compared to the previous fiscal year-end, driven by increase in new contracts and the depreciation of the yen at the end of the period. New contracts increased year-on-year, mainly due to increased finance penetration. Revenues increased by JPY 1 billion year-on-year, primarily due to the increase in outstanding receivables. Segment profit increased by JPY 4.2 billion year-on-year, mainly due to lower funding costs. Slide 12 shows sales and segment profit for the Industrial Machinery & Others segment for the 9 months period. Sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year to JPY 162.7 billion. Segment profit increased by 81.1% year-on-year to JPY 27.3 billion. The segment profit ratio rose by 6.5 points to 16.8%. Sales and profits increased due to higher sales of larger press for the automotive industry and increased maintenance sales for high-margin excimer lasers for the semiconductor industry. Slide 13 shows the consolidated balance sheet. Total assets stood at JPY 6.3079 trillion, an increase of JPY 534.4 billion from the previous fiscal year-end, mainly due to the yen's depreciation at the end of the period. Inventories were JPY 1.6896 trillion, an increase of JPY 282.9 billion from the previous fiscal year-end due to the impact of the yen's depreciation as well as U.S. tariffs. The shareholders' equity ratio decreased by 1.7 points from the previous fiscal year-end to 53.3%. The net debt-to-equity ratio was 0.30. Regarding the share buyback result, at the Board of Directors meeting on April 28, 2025, we completed the acquisition of the maximum amount of JPY 100 billion by November 28, 2025. We canceled all of the 20,612,500 shares acquired this time on December 29, 2025. This corresponds to 2.2% of the total outstanding shares before cancellation. Free cash flow for the 9 months period of FY 2025 was a positive JPY 115.7 billion. This concludes my presentation. Next, the projection for fiscal '25 will be explained by Mr. Hishinuma.

This is Hishinuma, GM of the Business Coordination Department. From here, I'll explain the projection for fiscal '25 business results and the conditions in the major markets. Page 15 shows an overview of the projection for fiscal '25 business results. The full year outlook remains unchanged from the October projection. From Page 16, I'll explain the demand trends and projection for the 7 major products. Demand for the 7 major products includes mining equipment. The figures for the fiscal '25 Q3 are preliminary estimates by the company. Demand in fiscal '25 Q3 appears to have increased by 3% year-on-year. The full year demand outlook for fiscal '25 is set at 0% to minus 5% year-on-year, which is unchanged from the October projection. Page 17 shows the demand trends and outlook for the North American market. Demand in the fiscal -- demand in fiscal '25 appears to have increased by 1% year-on-year. Demand for infrastructure and energy remained steady. The demand projection for fiscal 2025 is 0% to minus 5% year-on-year, which is unchanged from the October projection. As in the first half, there was no downward pressure on demand from tariffs during the third quarter apparently. However, as cost increase due to tariffs gradually progress, we will closely monitor its impact on demand. Page 18 shows the demand trends and projections for the European market. Demand in fiscal '25 Q3 appears to have increased by 7% year-on-year. The projection for fiscal 2025 is at the same level as the previous year, unchanged from the October projections. In Europe, an improvement in the business climate has been observed, including upward revisions to GDP growth rates. And with infrastructure investment plans in various countries, demand has remained firm. However, we will continue to closely watch market future conditions. Page 19 shows the demand trends and outlook for the Southeast Asian market. Demand in fiscal '25 Q3 appears to have decreased by 6% year-on-year. As the decline in demand through the third quarter was smaller than expected as of October, the demand projection for fiscal 2025 has been revised to 0% to minus 5%. In Indonesia, demand for mining equipment declined significantly from the second quarter onward due to falling coal prices. In addition, reductions in public works budgets have continued and demand for construction equipment remains sluggish. Uncertainty remains high. And while distributor inventory adjustments are underway, a recovery in demand is not yet in sight. Page 20 shows the demand trends and outlook for the Japanese market. Demand in fiscal ' 25 Q3 appears to have decreased by 14% year-on-year. The projection for demand in fiscal '25 is minus 10% to minus 15%, unchanged from the October projections. Low utilization of rental equipment, labor shortages and rising material prices continue and no signs of demand recovery are being observed. Page 21 shows trends and projections for major mineral prices related to demand for mining equipment. We expect prices for low-grade coal in Indonesia to remain depressed, while prices for other minerals are remaining high or moving steadily. Page 22 shows demand trends for mining equipment. Demand in fiscal '25 Q3 appears to have decreased by 21% year-on-year. Coal prices declined in Indonesia, leading to a significant decrease in demand for equipment. The demand projection for fiscal 2025 is minus 10% to minus 15%, unchanged from the October projections. Coal prices in Indonesia have not recovered and demand has not rebounded. However, demand for equipment in other regions and for other minerals is expected to remain generally at high levels towards the fiscal year-end. Page 23 shows sales of mining equipment. Sales in fiscal '25 Q3 increased by 4.9% year-on-year to JPY 475.1 billion. Excluding FX impact, sales increased by 2%. Although sales declined in Asia, mainly Indonesia and in North America, increases in Latin America and Africa resulted in overall year-on-year growth. Page 24 shows the projected sales of equipment, parts and services and related items in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment segment. Parts sales in Q3 of fiscal '25 increased by 6.1% year-on-year to JPY 265.5 billion. Including services and others, the aftermarket accounted for 54%. And excluding FX impact, total aftermarket sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year. This concludes my explanation. Thank you.

We would now like to receive questions from you. [Operator Instructions] The first question, please. UBS Securities, Sasaki-san.

So this is Sasaki from UBS Securities. I have 2 questions. First question relates to the Q3 results. So I'd like you to do a recap on the Q3. So it has been progressing well vis-a-vis plan, especially in terms of sales and operating income, in terms of volume and also the selling price and FX inclusive. So what has been positive? And what were not as expected vis-a-vis plan? If you can give us a recap, that would be helpful.

So this is Horikoshi. In terms of sales, JPY 145 was the expectation, but in actual JPY 153. So about JPY 71 billion or so of an excess that we have seen because of FX. In terms of volume, it's about JPY 5 billion short vis-a-vis plan. Also for the price differential, it's about JPY 3 billion short of our plan. So about JPY 63 billion in comparison to October PA, we have exceeded the initial expectation in comparison to October. So we mentioned in terms of volume that was short by JPY 5 billion. So in the construction, that was short by JPY 7 billion. And in terms of mining, JPY 2 billion of excess. So that is the breakdown. So in terms of construction, the breakdown for what was short. So in North America, JPY 5 billion is the shortage in North America. This relates to repair. So because of the constraints of the customers' budget, it has been pushed out. So that is why the number is short in North America. Also, the competitors have been quite aggressive, especially in the month of December. So this was prior to the price increase. So they have been quite aggressive. So that is why we had seen a negative impact. Also in terms of Indonesia and Asia, so actually, it was better than our initial plan. So where we have seen shortage, that was Japan. So in comparison to October announcement, it was worse. So if you were to net out all these factors, it's JPY 7 billion of short in terms of the construction equipment. Moving on to mining business. North America, we have seen a similar number in North America that was short vis-a-vis plan. This is specifically related to oil sand in Canada because of the constraints in budget, therefore, the service provision was pushed out. So that was one of the factors. Where was it positive, favorable, was Indonesia. It was better than our initial anticipation. The reasons why Indonesia was performing better than expected. First of all, in Sumatra, the island, there has been a huge -- the torrential rain, and there were some demand related to restoration. And because of that, there was a demand for construction equipment. Also, the coal prices, and that is the thermal, the coal, that is, the pricing wasn't as bad as initially expected. Therefore, Indonesia, it was actually excess in comparison to our plan. Oceania and also South Africa has been quite solid. So on a net basis, the mining business was in excess about JPY 2 billion or so. Now moving on to the PL. In terms of profit, so in terms of FX, the profit was a push up by JPY 20 billion. Also in terms of the volume, so vis-a-vis sales of JPY 5 billion in terms of profit was short by JPY 2 billion. Also, in terms of the selling price, that was a negative factor. And also for fixed cost, we have some excess in the fixed costs and others. So all in all, so we mentioned about FX differential was JPY 20 billion, and that amount in entirety, we were able to see an excess. So we were able to offset that. Did I answer your question?

Thank you very much. So in terms of fixed cost, that was a positive of JPY 5 billion. So FX was JPY 20 billion then. Is my understanding correct? So of course, the production cost was a negative. Why do you see an excess in the fixed cost?

So the budget execution was pushed out to Q4.

Understood. So based on that, my second question, you mentioned about the situation in Indonesia. So I was able to understand why it was better than expected. When it relates to construction equipment and mining equipment, what is the expectation? And what is the current state of Indonesia? If you can also share with us your outlook for Indonesia.

So this is Hishinuma. From the perspective of demand, the situation has not dramatically changed. However, after Q2 is over, in comparison to the demand outlook, it was somewhat better than our forecast at the end of Q2. And the reason is just as we have explained. So at the end of Q2, mining was expected to be not so favorable because the coal prices weren't faring. But Q2, it was about $42 to $43 or so. And in Q3, it was back to $45 or $46. So we have seen a push up because of that. And that is why Q4, we expect this positive trend to continue. And for construction equipment, for the public spending, the budget constraints hasn't changed. And therefore, the situation had not really changed from before. Now the expectations from Q4, it may actually deteriorate from the previous year. That was our initial forecast. But in terms of the holidays, it was end of March last year. But this year, it's about a week or 10 days more holidays in comparison to last year. So we have incorporated the maximum risk. But overall, we do not expect the situation to change so much.

I was able to fully understand. Sorry, this is an additional question. I fully understand the situation in Indonesia. So already, the situation is not so favorable, but it appears as if it is stabilizing. Are there any risks that Indonesia may deteriorate further? So it was pretty, I know, not-so-good situation, but what are the risks that actually further deteriorate?

That relates to next fiscal term then. So we are trying to revisit these plans. But as for next fiscal term, construction equipment shouldn't be so bad because in the recent months, it is somewhat getting stronger. So Indonesia is the area that we may see some decline. Given the current coke price, chances are we may see a decline in Indonesia for next fiscal term as well.

So this fiscal term, it is pretty bad then. So the deterioration in Indonesia, could we expect the impact will be smaller from Indonesia? Apologies for going on.

I don't know. We don't know.

Let's move on to the next question. Maekawa-san from Nomura Securities, please.

This is Maekawa from Nomura Securities. I also have 2 questions. I have a question about overall mining. Regarding our demand outlook, we haven't really changed the overall picture. But for parts and services, have you been seeing demand pick up? And for equipment demand, there may be a chance that it's going to pick up due to investment plans. So based off the current market, can you share with us how you view mining equipment demand going forward? And I think this will cover next fiscal year as well, presumably.

Well, regarding that question, actually, we are right in the middle of formulating our business plan for next fiscal year. So that -- it may be subject to change, but just to give you a feel of what we are thinking about right now. First of all, regarding minerals or commodities, for nickel and thermal coal, it is in a situation of excess supply. Due to a decline of demand in China, the prices are weak. And also for nickel, the greatest producer is Indonesia and production has been in excess. For mining equipment, since 2021, it has been expanding, but it has been reaching peak this year. And for next fiscal year, demand is expected to be flat. And we believe it's going to be shifting from greenfield to brownfield when it comes to investments. Our customer financials are sound, but due to inflation, costs have been increasing and mineral grade has been going down as well as the way to mine has become more complicated. Therefore, I think we have to be cautious in investments. So we believe the demand for rebuilds will become higher in aftermarket. For Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and emerging mining regions, we do believe mining developments will proceed. And like we announced Reko Diq in Pakistan have been new opportunities that have been presented to us. And for Indonesia, I talked about it earlier.

How about coal -- copper? I think the demand is high in Latin America. So how should we expect future activity?

Next fiscal year, as of now, our thinking is demand is expected to decline in Australia this year. It was a peak year for replacement demand. That's what we thought. So demand is likely to decline next year. And we also expect Indonesia to go down as well, but we believe it will be brisk conditions in other regions.

Another question I have for you is regarding tariffs and increases in selling prices as well as its impact and if there are any changes there. Just wanted to check with you. The 9-month basis, Q3 results, JPY 25.1 billion was the tariff impact. I think that was in line with plan. And for this fiscal year, you haven't changed your outlook, but you're expecting JPY 55 billion. And for next fiscal year, 30 times 4 is JPY 120 billion. Has that expectation changed? And regarding selling prices, I think you're already working on it. But are you thinking about additional price increases? And are you expecting any impact on demand? Or have you been seeing any impact on demand? So those are the 3 things I would like to know.

This is Horikoshi again. Regarding tariff-related costs, including mitigation measures, we said JPY 55 billion as of October, but we do believe our projections were quite accurate. So far, things have been developing in line with our expectations, and we follow the numbers on a monthly basis as to how it's hitting our P&L. For next fiscal year, we said as of October that it's going to be Q4 times 4x. That should be the expectation, which is around JPY 120 billion. For selling price increases, in August, we did a selling price increase or starting from August orders, that is. And we also have been increasing prices from January orders as well. For our U.S. peers, starting from January, we have been hearing that they also have been raising prices. So the environment for raising prices is now becoming quite established, and we do believe we will be able to do further increases next fiscal year.

So because of that, are you expecting any last-minute demand? Do you think there's going to be some prebuys or any risk that it's going to drop off after you raise your prices?

In the case of our company, we did a campaign in October and in November, it went down, but it went up again in December. So no, we are not feeling such trends.

We would now like to move on to the next question from Goldman Sachs Securities. Adachi-san, please.

This is Adachi from Goldman Sachs. So I also have 2 questions. First question, which is somewhat related to the previous ones relates to mining and the exposure to the metals and the precious metals. So I think Latin America and Africa, I believe it was better than expected. So the exposure to the copper and gold is quite high in those regions. So you had the backlog and it was realized as planned. Was that the case? Or were there more of a short-term aftermarket rebuild demand has increased. So what is the current state in terms of Africa and Latin America? So how has the demand changed in terms of exposure to gold and others?

Within the analysis, we talked about the comparison with the October announcement. Africa was favorable. Last year, Anglo had conducted the business restructuring. So they have restrained from the investment. So it could be a reactionary the response to that. So South Africa was positive from the previous year and also in comparison to the October announcement. Also another point, the gold prices continues to rise. So we have large projects such as in Ghana. So we hear that a number of new projects are underway.

So in terms of the Q3 order intake, perhaps you haven't disclosed much, but how was the situation of order intake?

It has been quite positive, very brisk.

My second question relates to cost. So the cost was higher than initially expected, but tariffs was in line. So I would imagine that the non-tariff-related cost was higher than initially expected. So if you can give us more details on the production cost, please.

In terms of the steel prices in comparison to last year, it has come down. So we have seen some gains from that. But in terms of the production guarantee basis, there was some one-off cost. Also tires and power lines. So nonferrous metals. So these are non-steel, the parts, actually, the prices have risen from the previous year. So we have actually incurred some loss related to those nonferrous metals.

So excluding those one-off factors then, is inflation pretty much in line with your expectation? Or even excluding those, was the price increase not in line with your expectation?

If you were to exclude the one-off, we have seen the gains as expected.

Let's move on to the next one. From Nikkei, Mr. Otake -- Ms. Otake, excuse me.

This is Otake from Nikkei. Earlier, there was a question asked and my question may overlap somewhat. But the first question is about the circumstances in North America. Can you talk about now and your projection related to construction equipment and mining equipment? Can you talk about each, respectively?

This is Hishinuma speaking. So first, regarding North America, relatively brisk conditions are continuing. When we were setting forth this fiscal year's projection, we were saying minus 5% to minus 10%. But since Q2 onwards, we've revised it up to 0% to minus 5%. And it was plus 1% for Q3. And therefore, we do believe that it has been quite steady. And we are aligning with the local people to capture the numbers, but we are not seeing any factors that will make our numbers change dramatically. So that's for construction equipment. For mining equipment, last year was quite good. So this year, we're guiding negatively, but it's not because the economy is bad, so we are not that worried.

You talked about Canada earlier. For mining, in next fiscal year, are you expecting further decline? Or are you not feeling such risks?

Correct. We are not expecting such risks.

And secondly, my question is about price increases. You said that competition has been raising prices from January and the market is accepting higher prices. According to -- regarding that point, for selling price increases that are going to probably be ongoing, how much do you believe that will boost your profits? Can you give us some direction or a feel of how much that's going to look like?

Well, at our October results briefing, I mentioned this in an interview, but the magnitude that we are experiencing now is what we are striving for next fiscal year as well.

That means around JPY 83 billion is the positive impact on profits, no?

Well, JPY 3 billion might be a little extra, but we are striving for similar levels at this fiscal year, which means around JPY 80 billion. I am not definitively saying JPY 80 billion, but I have been saying that about the same level as this fiscal year.

My third question is, as you mentioned in the beginning, for Q3 compared to your plan, it has been exceeding and trending positively, and there has been some areas where you've been beating your profit expectations. When you look at the FX rates for the second half of the year, we are seeing the yen weaken. So I think there is sufficient opportunity for you to exceed your expectations for the full year. But what are the chances of that happening? What is your feel?

For Q3, we talked about JPY 20 billion of positive impact coming from FX. And for -- when you net it out, it's 0. But I was saying we can exceed JPY 20 billion. But for Q4, due to fixed costs, there have been some pushouts or that's what we're expecting at least. Therefore, on a full year basis, we expect we're going to be under our expectation by JPY 10 billion. JPY 10 billion, meaning excluding FX impact. But FX-wise, we expect similar numbers to come through in Q4 as well.

I'd like to move on to the next question from Citigroup Securities, McDonald-san, please.

Slide 13, please. About free cash flow. There wasn't much comment on free cash flow today. So we've seen the yen depreciated and also the pushout in terms of mining. You've talked about those factors and also their impact from the tariffs. So working capital appears to be somewhat deteriorating. So JPY 240 billion, the cash flow, that has been revised downwards in Q2, but it may be difficult to achieve on a full year basis. So what are your thoughts right now?

Last year, we had -- so about JPY 306 billion or so for last year. So cumulative last year was about JPY 150 billion cumulative up until Q3 for last year. So Q4 in 3 months, we had JPY 150 billion of free cash flow, leading to JPY 300 billion and JPY 157 billion for this year up until Q3. So if you see the similar -- the free cash flows within Q4, we could possibly reach that JPY 240 billion. Chances are we may actually reach that number. So I think it's the FX.

If yen continues to be so weak, it may be challenging to achieve this number, isn't it?

It doesn't necessarily relate.

Oh, it doesn't relate?

No.

So right now then, it was in the course of 3 years, the SGP on the cumulative basis, JPY 1 trillion, you should be able to achieve this?

We don't know yet. We don't know yet. Of course, we'll make the effort. But what we can say at this moment, if you look at the free cash flow numbers, so back in 2023, there's been a lot of fluctuation on the free cash flow. So I think 2023 was about JPY 240 billion or maybe I might be wrong, but that was the number. Last year was JPY 300 billion, and this year is JPY 240 billion for this year. So in comparison to the previous period, it has become more stable in terms of generation of free cash flows. So we still have 2 years to go until the end of the SGP. So we'd like to work hard to achieve that number. So of course, shareholders' return. So you have JPY 100 billion of share buybacks has been completed and you have retired the other shares. Of course, I fully understand nothing is decided for next fiscal year, but institutional investors see that there's a lot of cash piling up. And perhaps there is not much need of CapEx, for instance, construction of new plants. We do appreciate there is a demand in investment related to replacement of renewal. But unless there is a large-scale M&A, can we expect to see similar amount of shareholders' return?

That's a comment?

Yes, that is a comment.

Horikoshi-san, I'm pretty sure it is hard for you to say that. Yes, we heard your comment. Also to a different note. So you mentioned the profit was slightly better than the plan. So my impressions are -- so industrial machinery and retail finance was positive. That was my impression. But there's a discussion related to best owner. But aside from that, in terms of industrial machinery, that is Gigaphoton continues to be in good shape. And the profitability as well as the top line is improving. So chances are this situation may continue for some time. What are your thoughts, Horikoshi-san?

As you know, the semiconductor demand continues to be on the rise, and that is expected. Also, the Komatsu, the NTC, Komatsu Industries continues to be quite solid. So fortunately, on a total basis, the profitability is higher than the construction equipment. And Gigaphoton, we expect growth next year onwards. So we do expect that to happen for next year. So the sales on a cumulative basis, about JPY 50 billion or so.

So there are some comments related to maintenance. So how much does that actually account for within the sales right now?

We don't have the number at hand. But as far as this fiscal term is concerned, about half relates to maintenance and the half is related to the equipment.

So just to confirm then, Gigaphoton's profitability is far superior to average. So I have this image that it's over 20%. Is that correct?

Yes, your impressions are correct.

Moving on to the next question. Taninaka-san from SMBC Nikko.

This is Taninaka from SMBC Nikko. I have 2 questions. The first one is about increasing selling prices, passing on the cost. The ones you have announced regarding the ones that are effective from January, inclusive of that, you didn't say JPY 80 billion definitively, but there was some conversation around increasing prices by the same magnitude next fiscal year. I think the cost increase expected for next year is about JPY 65 billion. But how much of the profit decline are you expecting to offset next fiscal year? Can you give us some food for thought?

Regarding tariff impact, it's actually the difference between JPY 120 billion and JPY 55 billion. So yes, you are correct. But selling price increases, like mentioned earlier, is what we are striving to do. So you will be able to come up with the percentage if you do your math.

Secondly, for precious metals, prices are going up. And after service for the mining business, how has that been changing? Because copper prices are increasing, are there any situations where people are not able to develop new mines? Or is production stopping at any copper mines because of this backdrop? So is utilization -- I guess utilization is not really picking up. But due to higher precious metal prices, is that directly affecting your aftermarket business? Or is it because precious metal prices are going up due to a variety of factors, there's no direct relationship. Can you give us some perspective on this?

Well, please look at Page 38 in the disclosed presentation. It breaks down the sales of equipment and parts and services. For FX, if you exclude FX impact, for the third quarter as well on a cumulative basis, too, for equipment compared to last year, the difference was quite negative and it went down. However, for parts and services, actually, we've been exceeding. So on a net-net basis, compared to last year, we have been seeing a decline in sales or that's what we're expecting projection-wise. So the aftermarket business compared to last year has been steadily rising, and the ratios are shown at the top. But for this fiscal year, we expect the aftermarket ratio for mining is going to reach around 65%. So yes, we perceive that the business is doing well. And even for precious metals, the same thing applies.

The next question, please. From Nikkei, Kugai-san, please.

This is Kugai from Nikkei. I'd like to pose 2 questions. First relates to rare earth. So the export control by China is in place. So what are the impacts right now? And what are the expectations? So in terms of export control, what is the current state of inventory? And what is the procurement strategy going forward? If you can share with us your thoughts, that would be helpful.

So this is Hishinuma. Internally, we are definitely investigating the details. So we're looking at the suppliers' inventory level. And if there is a shortage, we're trying to source from elsewhere. So those are definitely activities underway. So of course, if there is a complete suspension, the impact will be quite huge. So we are cautiously involved in the discussion and the investigation.

Also, I have another question. So weaker yen is prolonging. So that is posing some positive impact in terms of the performance. But of course, if this is prolonged, that may impact the investment overseas. So with the yen depreciation, how do you perceive the current state? Also, what is the optimal, the FX level for you? If you can share with us your thoughts on what is the optimal level, that would be helpful as well.

So just to do a recap. It's been over 2 years, actually, we're trending about JPY 150 or so. So the yen depreciation started back in Q1 of 2022. And since then, there has been gradually rise or depreciated. And since 2 years back, it's been hovering around JPY 150 or so. So I think back in 2017 to 2021, it was JPY 120 to JPY 115 or so. That was the past trend. So for 2 years, we've had JPY 150. It is almost becoming a de facto as we consider the future investment. So if we -- so it is not possible for us to invest more, expecting that the yen would appreciate going forward. So basically, the basic stance is, wherever needed, we will make such investment.

Thank you. We are running out of time. But there are no people who have raised their hands. So if there are no additional questions, we would like to conclude today's meeting. Any additional questions? McDonald-san, you have one more question?

Yes, it's a short one. Regarding your P&L analysis for the volume, product mix, et cetera, can you give me -- give us pure volume, product mix, area mix and so forth and the details of that?

Are you talking about Page 10 on a 3-month basis, right? Out of volume, product mix, it's JPY 520.1 billion. The pure volume negative is JPY 27.6 billion. For product and area mix, it's JPY 21.2 billion in total, combining the two. And the third item is a one-off item, which is related to product guarantee, which was worth JPY 3.3 billion. For area and product mix, JPY 21.2 billion of a loss. For area mix, Indonesia compared to last year has been going down and therefore, has been deteriorating. And for Europe, it has been increasing. But year-over-year, it is contributing negatively. For product mix, due to mining, and this applies to construction equipment as well. Due to the mix between equipment and parts, it has led to a negative impact for this period.

As we reached the time given, we would like to end Komatsu's fiscal '25 Q3 results briefing. Thank you very much, everyone, for joining today. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]